Re-sign Contreras, trade Vazquez mid-season

[VAfan]

Does anyone doubt that when all the negotiating is over, that Jose Contreras will sign an extension with the Sox? After all the love he has felt here, and his rapport with Ozzie and Coop, I think there is no doubt that Jose will want to be back. I think as long as Jose's demands don't get ridiculous, that KW will find a way to make a deal.

 

So where will that leave the Sox? With 6 strong starting pitchers, the envy of baseball.

 

And, unless someone comes to the Sox with an offer KW can't refuse, I think that is where the Sox will be opening day. McCarthy will be in the bullpen and Contreras, Buehrle, Garcia, Garland, and Vazquez will be in the rotation.

 

It makes a lot of sense. For example, what if Mark Buehrle's foot twinge last spring had been real, knocking him out for weeks? Freak injuries can happen, and having an extra starter ready to plug in can go from a luxury to a necessity whenever they do. Given how badly the Sox performed from 2001-2004 without a reliable 5th man, I think KW fully appreciates the value of starting depth.

 

But this is not necessarily the same place the Sox should be mid-season. By then, they will have a much better assessment of the AL race, how Brandon McCarthy continues to perform against major league hitting, and the health of the team. They should also know whether Brian Anderson is overmatched in CF, whether Jim Thome is fully recovered and back to his old self, whether Joe Crede's back is holding up, etc. In other words, KW will have an even better sense of the club's mid-season needs. (Let's hope we don't have any.)

 

But the biggest thing the Sox may know is how good Javier Vazquez really is. Is he the Vazquez who showed great promise in Montreal? Or the mediocre innings eater he was for the Diamondbacks last year. Under Coop's tutelage, it is highly unlikely he'll be any worse than he was in 2005, with his 4.32 ERA and 35-HR's surrendered, and more likely he'll be better. Yet better for Vazquez may still make him the weakest starter on our team, capable of being replaced by Brandon McCarthy mid-season.

 

And at that point, still basically bound to any team that trades for him for 2-1/2 more years, Vazquez could be a huge trading chit. In fact, if he's shown a return to Montreal form, he'd have much more trade value mid-season than he does now. His value would also be enhanced because he could be a difference-maker for a contender in need of pitching (which every contender except the Sox will probably need).

 

For example, depending on where the Phillies are, why not Bobby Abreu (and some cash to soften his contract) for a refurbished Vazquez at that point? Or perhaps some other player to give us an offensive boost? Or even a contender's best prospects?

 

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if KW isn't thinking very much along these lines. Of course, it depends on Jose inking an extension. But it would surprise me a great deal if he doesn't do that.

[fathom]

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if KW isn't thinking very much along these lines.  Of course, it depends on Jose inking an extension. 

 

Double negatives = confusing post

[Bubba Philips]

Does anyone doubt that when all the negotiating is over, that Jose Contreras will sign an extension with the Sox?  After all the love he has felt here, and his rapport with Ozzie and Coop, I think there is no doubt that Jose will want to be back.  I think as long as Jose's demands don't get ridiculous, that KW will find a way to make a deal.

 

So where will that leave the Sox?  With 6 strong starting pitchers, the envy of baseball. 

 

And, unless someone comes to the Sox with an offer KW can't refuse, I think that is where the Sox will be opening day.  McCarthy will be in the bullpen and Contreras, Buehrle, Garcia, Garland, and Vazquez will be in the rotation. 

 

It makes a lot of sense.  For example, what if Mark Buehrle's foot twinge last spring had been real, knocking him out for weeks?  Freak injuries can happen, and having an extra starter ready to plug in can go from a luxury to a necessity whenever they do.  Given how badly the Sox performed from 2001-2004 without a reliable 5th man, I think KW fully appreciates the value of starting depth. 

 

But this is not necessarily the same place the Sox should be mid-season.  By then, they will have a much better assessment of the AL race, how Brandon McCarthy continues to perform against major league hitting, and the health of the team.  They should also know whether Brian Anderson is overmatched in CF, whether Jim Thome is fully recovered and back to his old self, whether Joe Crede's back is holding up, etc.  In other words, KW will have an even better sense of the club's mid-season needs.  (Let's hope we don't have any.)

 

But the biggest thing the Sox may know is how good Javier Vazquez really is.  Is he the Vazquez who showed great promise in Montreal?  Or the mediocre innings eater he was for the Diamondbacks last year.  Under Coop's tutelage, it is highly unlikely he'll be any worse than he was in 2005, with his 4.32 ERA and 35-HR's surrendered, and more likely he'll be better.  Yet better for Vazquez may still make him the weakest starter on our team, capable of being replaced by Brandon McCarthy mid-season.

 

And at that point, still basically bound to any team that trades for him for 2-1/2 more years, Vazquez could be a huge trading chit.  In fact, if he's shown a return to Montreal form, he'd have much more trade value mid-season than he does now.  His value would also be enhanced because he could be a difference-maker for a contender in need of pitching (which every contender except the Sox will probably need).

 

For example, depending on where the Phillies are, why not Bobby Abreu (and some cash to soften his contract) for a refurbished Vazquez at that point?  Or perhaps some other player to give us an offensive boost?  Or even a contender's best prospects? 

 

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if KW isn't thinking very much along these lines.  Of course, it depends on Jose inking an extension.  But it would surprise me a great deal if he doesn't do that.

[Bubba Philips]

I like your thinking. the value of everybody goes up at trade deadline. Last year so much that hardly any trades were made

[Felix]

I'm too lazy to read the whole post, but I'll just say, please stop with these VAfan.

[Kyyle23]

I'm too lazy to read the whole post, but I'll just say, please stop with these VAfan.

[VAfan]

I like your thinking. the value of everybody goes up at trade deadline. Last year so much that hardly any trades were made

 

I wouldn't bet on there being another year of no trade-deadline deals.

[RockRaines]

I wouldn't bet on there being another year of no trade-deadline deals.

and why is that???

[Rowand44]

and why is that???

Chuck Lamar is gone.

[RockRaines]

Chuck Lamar is gone.

nice

[RockRaines]

VA, I hope you are writing another sweet novel that makes no sense.

[VAfan]

and why is that???

 

Historically, it is rather unusual for there to be no deals at the deadline, don't you think? Plus, if KW is willing to deal a 200+-inning pitcher with 2-1/2 years to go on his contract, don't you think he'll have several offers to choose from?

 

What was being offered last year was AJ Burnett as a rental, Mike Lowell as a salary dump, and the guys from Tampa Bay, whose GM never trades with anyone anyway. SF wasn't dealing - they were just waiting for BB to return. The Yankees couldn't deal because they have no prospects and no one wants their overpaid baggage (even so, Shawn Chacon was one of the best July deals that was made). Etc. There were unusual circumstances that added up to no major moves.

[RockRaines]

Historically, it is rather unusual for there to be no deals at the deadline, don't you think?  Plus, if KW is willing to deal a 200+-inning pitcher with 2-1/2 years to go on his contract, don't you think he'll have several offers to choose from? 

 

What was being offered last year was AJ Burnett as a rental, Mike Lowell as a salary dump, and the guys from Tampa Bay, whose GM never trades with anyone anyway.  SF wasn't dealing - they were just waiting for BB to return.  The Yankees couldn't deal because they have no prospects and no one wants their overpaid baggage (even so, Shawn Chacon was one of the best July deals that was made).  Etc.  There were unusual circumstances that added up to no major moves.

yet, before the deadline ended, people were speculating a million trades, you only mention a few that had bad circumstance, but there were many other teams in it, that could trade talent, MLB players, arms etc. The sox alone were mentioned in 10 trades including griffey, etc. Maybe one of the trends that has developed from late season runs by teams such as houston, fla, and cle have changed the deadline deals forever.

[RockRaines]

Maybe the trend of staying put at the deadline and making a run with what you have is the new thing to do.

[VAfan]

VA, I hope you are writing another sweet novel that makes no sense.

 

What part, exactly, makes no sense?

 

1. Re-signing Jose Contreras for another 2-3 years beyond 2006? I don't think his 3-year $36 million ask is that far out of line given what Millwood, Burnett, and Washburn got, but I also think the Sox will end up getting him for less. Do you think that would be a bad deal? (Remember, it wouldn't be on this year's payroll.)

 

2. Starting the season with Contreras, Buehrle, Garcia, Garland, and Vazquez in the rotation?

 

3. Trying to get Vazquez to regain some of the form and results he showed in Montreal, thereby increasing his value exponentially?

 

4. Easing Brandon McCarthy into the majors by having him start the season in the bullpen? KW has said McCarthy needs to fill out his frame, and I'll bet he believes McCarthy is a risk to get hurt until he does.

 

5. Assessing our needs through the middle of the year before we consider trading one of our top-5 starters?

 

Where's the flaw?

[iWiN4PreP]

Thats all you really had to post like that Va. not a huge essay .

but good quality post anyway..

and i agree with you.

[VAfan]

Maybe the trend of staying put at the deadline and making a run with what you have is the new thing to do.

 

That might be the best thing to do in 2006 for the Sox too.

 

My point is this. Sign Contreras because he's the best starting pitcher we have and one of the best in baseball. Then go into the season with all of the starters we have because it will give us unmatched strength vis-a-vis the rest of the AL.

 

If, at some point, we need to shore up another part of the team, and we can afford to deal from strength, that will be a better time to make the deal than right now, especially since Vazquez is probably undervalued coming off his poor showing in NY and mediocre season in Arizona.

 

But, we may also need all of those starters if any of them go down to injury. Look what happened to the Yankees staff last year.

[southsideirish71]

Does anyone doubt that when all the negotiating is over, that Jose Contreras will sign an extension with the Sox?  After all the love he has felt here, and his rapport with Ozzie and Coop, I think there is no doubt that Jose will want to be back.  I think as long as Jose's demands don't get ridiculous, that KW will find a way to make a deal.

 

So where will that leave the Sox?  With 6 strong starting pitchers, the envy of baseball. 

 

And, unless someone comes to the Sox with an offer KW can't refuse, I think that is where the Sox will be opening day.  McCarthy will be in the bullpen and Contreras, Buehrle, Garcia, Garland, and Vazquez will be in the rotation. 

 

It makes a lot of sense.  For example, what if Mark Buehrle's foot twinge last spring had been real, knocking him out for weeks?  Freak injuries can happen, and having an extra starter ready to plug in can go from a luxury to a necessity whenever they do.  Given how badly the Sox performed from 2001-2004 without a reliable 5th man, I think KW fully appreciates the value of starting depth. 

 

But this is not necessarily the same place the Sox should be mid-season.  By then, they will have a much better assessment of the AL race, how Brandon McCarthy continues to perform against major league hitting, and the health of the team.  They should also know whether Brian Anderson is overmatched in CF, whether Jim Thome is fully recovered and back to his old self, whether Joe Crede's back is holding up, etc.  In other words, KW will have an even better sense of the club's mid-season needs.  (Let's hope we don't have any.)

 

But the biggest thing the Sox may know is how good Javier Vazquez really is.  Is he the Vazquez who showed great promise in Montreal?  Or the mediocre innings eater he was for the Diamondbacks last year.  Under Coop's tutelage, it is highly unlikely he'll be any worse than he was in 2005, with his 4.32 ERA and 35-HR's surrendered, and more likely he'll be better.  Yet better for Vazquez may still make him the weakest starter on our team, capable of being replaced by Brandon McCarthy mid-season.

 

And at that point, still basically bound to any team that trades for him for 2-1/2 more years, Vazquez could be a huge trading chit.  In fact, if he's shown a return to Montreal form, he'd have much more trade value mid-season than he does now.  His value would also be enhanced because he could be a difference-maker for a contender in need of pitching (which every contender except the Sox will probably need).

 

For example, depending on where the Phillies are, why not Bobby Abreu (and some cash to soften his contract) for a refurbished Vazquez at that point?  Or perhaps some other player to give us an offensive boost?  Or even a contender's best prospects? 

 

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if KW isn't thinking very much along these lines.  Of course, it depends on Jose inking an extension.  But it would surprise me a great deal if he doesn't do that.

 

So for the recap of the crazy talk.....

 

So we traded our number 1 prospect that everyone thinks is going to be a star CF, so we can reaquire other prospects. Boy you paint KW to be a moron....

[Felix]

So for the recap of the crazy talk.....

 

So we traded our number 1 prospect that everyone thinks is going to be a star CF, so we can reaquire other prospects.  Boy you paint KW to be a moron....

Thats exactly what I was just thinking. Doesn't really make sense to me.

[Cerbaho-WG]

3.  Trying to get Vazquez to regain some of the form and results he showed in Montreal, thereby increasing his value exponentially?

 

Will you please stop your love affair with the word exponentially? Is Vazquez going to square his value? Perhaps even cube it? What if he decreases his value exponentially to the 1/2 power? Diction, use it.

 

And you're actually keen to the idea of giving a three year contract worth somewhere in the vicinity of $12 million, wouldn't you give it to somehow who might be 38? Baseball isn't different from any other form of trading, you buy low and sell high. With six starting pitchers, Contreras has the highest value as of now and could be used to get bullpen help which the White Sox need.

[southsideirish71]

Will you please stop your love affair with the word exponentially? Is Vazquez going to square his value? Perhaps even cube it? What if he decreases his value exponentially to the 1/2 power? Diction, use it.

 

And you're actually keen to the idea of giving a three year contract worth somewhere in the vicinity of $12 million, wouldn't you give it to somehow who might be 38? Baseball isn't different from any other form of trading, you buy low and sell high. With six starting pitchers, Contreras has the highest value as of now and could be used to get bullpen help which the White Sox need.

 

 

You dont know anything. Mid season we will get Zito for prospects, and then turn him around for more prospects. Either that or we can have 7 starters. In the offseason we can sign a few guys and have 8 starters, talk about redundancy. Our payroll wont be a tad over 140 mill. Reinsdorf can afford it. We are talking about a WS Dynasty here.

[quickman]

I don't know what to say..I just don't

[knightni]

I think he uses that word quite exponentially.

[Milkman delivers]

As soon as I signed in and saw the name of this topic on the main page, I knew who started it.

[Wanne]

So we traded our number 1 prospect that everyone thinks is going to be a star CF, so we can reaquire other prospects.  Boy you paint KW to be a moron....

 

Yup....that pretty much sums it up right there.