Re-sign Contreras, trade Vazquez mid-season

[Chisoxfn]

Why would you take Vazquez over those guys?  Unlike Vazquez, the other Sox pitchers have proven that their numbers won't inflate due to pitching at the Cell.  As of right now, I'm just as confident in McCarthy as I am Vazquez.  I know you like Vazquez, which is fine.  He has dynamic stuff, and can go a lot of innings.  The great thing about this is that we're talking about 6 very good pitchers....not many teams in the last few decades can claim the same thing.

Considering the financial aspect of Vazquez. I'd take the other 3 (Mac, Contreras, and Garland) over Javier if were talking about the better pitcher. That said Mac is obviously unproven still, but he's cheap and we control his rights for a while and he's pitched tremendously at the major league level in his young career.

 

Personally I would be more than happy having Chris Young still in our system. I can only hope Vazquez learns to become a man and stop complaining and whining. Garland doesn't have the stuff Vazquez has, but he's been rock solid, is younger, and has pitched sucessfully with the Sox (as well as in the post-season), while Contreras hands down has some of the best stuff in all of baseball (far superior to Vazquez, who doesn't have near the stuff he once had and its why the Yanks for the longest time thought he was hurt prior to dealing him).

[southsideirish71]

A few years ago, the Twins had Johan Santana in their pen in long relief. At the time he was much better than their fifth starter. Fans wanted him in the rotation. They eased him along due to their pitching depth. Now Bmac is most likely not a Johan Santana. But if we have to deal with Bmac in the pen for this year, its not a bad thing.

 

Mark Buerhle was in the pen his first year. Ask yourself this, would of Bmac prefered to be up with the big club pitching in whatever role or starting every 5 days for the Knights. I think he will be okay with his spot and it will help out.

[Steve Bartman's my idol]

I don't understand why so many of you "posters" are so concerned with team finances.

 

The Sox are making a FORTUNE! The season ticket base is almost double from last year to this year...they are making a ton of $.

 

They can't "cry poor" anymore!

[witesoxfan]

I don't understand why so many of you "posters" are so concerned with team finances.

 

The Sox are making a FORTUNE! The season ticket base is almost double from last year to this year...they are making a ton of $.

 

They can't "cry poor" anymore!

 

That doesn't mean they'll be able to afford a $120 mill payroll which, with the moves you are suggesting, you think they will be able to.

[Kyyle23]

I don't understand why so many of you "posters" are so concerned with team finances.

 

The Sox are making a FORTUNE! The season ticket base is almost double from last year to this year...they are making a ton of $.

 

They can't "cry poor" anymore!

 

They have to be operating on a proposed budget, they cant be putting themselves in an overextended position just because they won the world series last year, and bank on the fact that they will do it again. Baseball is too much of a game of chance to be sure that the Sox will be making enough money to be able to support every move proposed around here.

 

They arent crying poor. But that doesnt mean they should start throwing money around like Steinbrenner.

[southsider2k5]

I don't understand why so many of you "posters" are so concerned with team finances.

 

The Sox are making a FORTUNE! The season ticket base is almost double from last year to this year...they are making a ton of $.

 

They can't "cry poor" anymore!

 

Find one item in print that proves this... just one.

[Kyyle23]

Find one item in print that proves this... just one.

 

I hear something.....

 

[VAfan]

I'm glad to see that most of the recent posters to this thread agree that Vazquez, as of right now, cannot be considered better than JC, MB, JG, or FG, especially since he's coming in from the NL into a HR park (he gave up 65 HRs the last two years). Certainly we all hope that Cooper can bring him back closer to his Montreal levels, but I'd be shocked if he can get his ERA below 4.00 in the Cell.

 

What I wanted to add, however, is a link to a Philly.com article today about an Abreu-for-pitching deal possibly happening in the middle of next year. I've excerpted the relevant parts.

 

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/13596113.htm

 

If you think the Phillies' pitching hasn't improved in this off-season, you aren't alone. Pat Gillick agrees....

 

"The one area that we've been trying to focus on... is our pitching," Gillick said. "And that's the area we haven't improved, both the front end and the back end."...

 

"The type of person that we're looking for - and they're hard animals to find - is a No. 1 or No. 2 starter," Gillick said....

 

Gillick reiterated yesterday that the most likely route for obtaining a quality starter would come via a trade. Rightfielder Bobby Abreu is considered the obvious candidate.

 

***************************

 

In mid-July next year, unless Vazquez improves a lot more than I expect he will, I'd be more than willing to trade Vazquez for Abreu, especially if the Phillies were willing to eat $4-6 million of his $16 million 2007 contract total. Of course, our other starters and McCarthy would all have to be healthy and we'd also likely have to have signed Contreras to an extension. If you think about it, who is going to be able to offer the Phillies a better pitcher than Vazquez for Abreu, and who is also going to want Abreu for their team? I can't think of a team. For us, however, Abreu would be a great fit - Venezuelan, with some speed, perfect #3 hitter, lefty bat, huge offensive upgrade over Anderson and better offensively than any of our outfielders. By midseason, having that 6th starter (who likely won't have much of a postseason role) will have less value than boosting our offensive production. But until then, it is probably better to have the pitching depth.

[knightni]

They'd have to pay half of Abreu's contract as well if they trade him for the Count stright up.

[Kyyle23]

I'm glad to see that most of the recent posters to this thread agree that Vazquez, as of right now, cannot be considered better than JC, MB, JG, or FG, especially since he's coming in from the NL into a HR park (he gave up 65 HRs the last two years).  Certainly we all hope that Cooper can bring him back closer to his Montreal levels, but I'd be shocked if he can get his ERA below 4.00 in the Cell.

 

What I wanted to add, however, is a link to a Philly.com article today about an Abreu-for-pitching deal possibly happening in the middle of next year.  I've excerpted the relevant parts. 

 

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/13596113.htm

 

If you think the Phillies' pitching hasn't improved in this off-season, you aren't alone. Pat Gillick agrees....

 

"The one area that we've been trying to focus on... is our pitching," Gillick said. "And that's the area we haven't improved, both the front end and the back end."...

 

"The type of person that we're looking for - and they're hard animals to find - is a No. 1 or No. 2 starter," Gillick said....

 

Gillick reiterated yesterday that the most likely route for obtaining a quality starter would come via a trade. Rightfielder Bobby Abreu is considered the obvious candidate.

 

***************************

 

In mid-July next year, unless Vazquez improves a lot more than I expect he will, I'd be more than willing to trade Vazquez for Abreu, especially if the Phillies were willing to eat $4-6 million of his $16 million 2007 contract total.  Of course, our other starters and McCarthy would all have to be healthy and we'd also likely have to have signed Contreras to an extension.  If you think about it, who is going to be able to offer the Phillies a better pitcher than Vazquez for Abreu, and who is also going to want Abreu for their team?  I can't think of a team.  For us, however, Abreu would be a great fit - Venezuelan, with some speed, perfect #3 hitter, lefty bat, huge offensive upgrade over Anderson and better offensively than any of our outfielders.  By midseason, having that 6th starter (who likely won't have much of a postseason role) will have less value than boosting our offensive production.  But until then, it is probably better to have the pitching depth.

 

So not only are you assuming that Vazquez will not improve, but you are also assuming that Brian Anderson will be less than adequate and another outfielder will need to be acquired, huh?

[Guest JimH]

I'm glad to see that most of the recent posters to this thread agree that Vazquez, as of right now, cannot be considered better than JC, MB, JG, or FG, especially since he's coming in from the NL into a HR park (he gave up 65 HRs the last two years).  Certainly we all hope that Cooper can bring him back closer to his Montreal levels, but I'd be shocked if he can get his ERA below 4.00 in the Cell.

 

What I wanted to add, however, is a link to a Philly.com article today about an Abreu-for-pitching deal possibly happening in the middle of next year.  I've excerpted the relevant parts. 

 

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/13596113.htm

 

If you think the Phillies' pitching hasn't improved in this off-season, you aren't alone. Pat Gillick agrees....

 

"The one area that we've been trying to focus on... is our pitching," Gillick said. "And that's the area we haven't improved, both the front end and the back end."...

 

"The type of person that we're looking for - and they're hard animals to find - is a No. 1 or No. 2 starter," Gillick said....

 

Gillick reiterated yesterday that the most likely route for obtaining a quality starter would come via a trade. Rightfielder Bobby Abreu is considered the obvious candidate.

 

***************************

 

In mid-July next year, unless Vazquez improves a lot more than I expect he will, I'd be more than willing to trade Vazquez for Abreu, especially if the Phillies were willing to eat $4-6 million of his $16 million 2007 contract total.  Of course, our other starters and McCarthy would all have to be healthy and we'd also likely have to have signed Contreras to an extension.  If you think about it, who is going to be able to offer the Phillies a better pitcher than Vazquez for Abreu, and who is also going to want Abreu for their team?  I can't think of a team.  For us, however, Abreu would be a great fit - Venezuelan, with some speed, perfect #3 hitter, lefty bat, huge offensive upgrade over Anderson and better offensively than any of our outfielders.  By midseason, having that 6th starter (who likely won't have much of a postseason role) will have less value than boosting our offensive production.  But until then, it is probably better to have the pitching depth.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

What part of THEY WON'T TRADE VAZQUEZ, THEY HAVE BEEN CHASING HIM FOR 3 YEARS do you not understand?

 

They are not going to trade cost certain pitching for an extremely expensive OF especially since they have a cheap RF prospect they love in Ryan Sweeney.

 

What does the VA stand for anyways, Very Annoying? It should be TBFan, which would stand for Thread Bump.

[RockRaines]

What part of THEY WON'T TRADE VAZQUEZ, THEY HAVE BEEN CHASING HIM FOR 3 YEARS do you not understand?

 

They are not going to trade cost certain pitching for an extremely expensive OF especially since they have a cheap RF prospect they love in Ryan Sweeney.

 

What does the VA stand for anyways, Very Annoying?  It should be TBFan, which would stand for Thread Bump.

Oh Snap. Jim getting pissed.

 

Its better to put him on ignore, makes your life easier.

[chitownsportsfan]

Hey, Jimh, did you talk to Kenny Williams last night when he was drunk? Did you visit the Oracle at Delphi?

 

Since it's widely been acknowledged that the Sox are employing sabermetrics more than ever, lets take a look at Abreu and Vasquez and try and come to a logical conclusion regarding if "they will never trade Vasquez for Abreu".

 

I won't go into why here, (try here: http://www.tangotiger.net/rc2.html") but OBP is the most important statistic for a hitter. It has been proven that getting on base is the single most important thing for a hitter to do as it produces the highest increase in expected runs. Moreso than average, moreso than slugging, moreso than OPS. Don't even mention RBI's please.

 

Lets look at Abreu's OBP compared to the league average the past 3 years:

 

.409--league: .334

.428 .343

.405 .349

 

Lets do some simple math to realize how much more valuable those percentages are. Compared to the avg MLB player, over 500 AB's a player with a .400 OBP will get on 200 times. A player with a .350 OBP will get on base 175 times.

 

Now, suppose Jim Thome bats behind Abreu, he gets 25 more times to hit with a runner on. That is valuable.

 

If look at Abreu's career statistics, they are quite good, wow, borderline HOF good. http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/abreubo01.shtml

 

Moving on to Vasquez: the man is a victim of one stat he doesn't seem able to change: his G/F ratio. Vasquez has suffered mightily the past two seasons due to both bad luck and a bad G/F ratio. In MLB, fly balls go for homeruns roughtly 10 percent of the time. But the past two seasons fly balls became HR's 13 and 16 percent of the tiem for Vasquez. Before you hollar, "well isn't HR rate per fly something a pitcher can control?", let me point you here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...eeks-ago/"

 

But anyways, we all know flyballs go out at The Cell rather often, both empirically and through statistics, so when Vasques posts G/F ratio's like he has been, it's kinda scary:

 

2001 1.28

2002 0.94

2003 0.83

2004 0.85

2005 1.19

 

 

That aside, Javier is pretty damn good pitcher. His DIPS suggest he has been unlucky. It just scares me to see a fly ball picher at US Cellular.

 

For these reasons, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Vasquez in a package for Abreu.

Edited January 12, 2006 by chitownsportsfan

[santo=dorf]

Great. A SABR hijack. :rolly

 

BTW, it's "Vazquez."

[chitownsportsfan]

Hijack my butt. Just a well reasoned response (albeit sorta drunk) to someone claiming to have a devining rod into the mind of KW. I understand that SABR backlash, but for being buzzed only spelling "Vasquez" wrong once or twice can't be that hard of foul.

 

At least I got those stats right!

 

Besides, sabrmetrics are so much more relevant with a world series champ, it's like the intersection of theory and practice! In this case forcing SABR to re-evaluate the importance of defense and speed.

[southsideirish71]

Hey, Jimh, did you talk to Kenny Williams last night when he was drunk?  Did you visit the Oracle at Delphi? 

 

Since it's widely been acknowledged that the Sox are employing sabermetrics more than ever, lets take a look at Abreu and Vasquez and try and come to a logical conclusion regarding if "they will never trade Vasquez for Abreu".

 

I won't go into why here, (try here: http://www.tangotiger.net/rc2.html") but OBP is the most important statistic for a hitter.  It has been proven that getting on base is the single most important thing for a hitter to do as it produces the highest increase in expected runs.  Moreso than average, moreso than slugging, moreso than OPS.  Don't even mention RBI's please.

 

Lets look at Abreu's OBP compared to the league average the past 3 years:

 

.409--league: .334

.428              .343

.405              .349

 

Lets do some simple math to realize how much more valuable those percentages are.  Compared to the avg MLB player, over 500 AB's a player with a .400 OBP will get on 200 times.  A player with a .350 OBP will get on base 175 times.

 

Now, suppose Jim Thome bats behind Abreu, he gets 25 more times to hit with a runner on.  That is valuable.

 

If look at Abreu's career statistics, they are quite good,  wow, borderline HOF good.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/abreubo01.shtml

 

Moving on to Vasquez:  the man is a victim of one stat he doesn't seem able to change: his G/F ratio.  Vasquez has suffered mightily the past two seasons due to both bad luck and a bad G/F ratio.  In MLB, fly balls go for homeruns roughtly 10 percent of the time.  But the past two seasons fly balls became HR's 13 and 16 percent of the tiem for Vasquez.  Before you hollar, "well isn't HR rate per fly something a pitcher can control?", let me point you here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...eeks-ago/"

 

But anyways, we all know flyballs go out at The Cell rather often, both empirically and through statistics, so when Vasques posts G/F ratio's like he has been, it's kinda scary:

   

2001                1.28

2002                0.94

2003                0.83

2004                0.85

2005                1.19

That aside, Javier is pretty damn good pitcher.  His DIPS suggest he has been unlucky.  It just scares me to see a fly ball picher at US Cellular.

 

For these reasons, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Vasquez in a package for Abreu.

 

Outside of all the SABR stats being spun out.

 

Lets get back to common sense. Why would we get rid of Vazquez when he is under control for the next few years, and Contreras is not.

 

Are we really advocating giving Contreras 13 million a year over a few years. How old is he again. How many great years has he had.

 

He was great in the second half of last year. He was a horse in the playoffs. However we do not have monopoly money here. If you sign Conteras for this goofy amount of money, Kiss Buerhle goodbye. Because how much do you think your best horse is going to cost you. I would rather spend that type of money on Buerhle over spending it on Contreras.

[witesoxfan]

Outside of all the SABR stats being spun out.

 

Lets get back to common sense.  Why would we get rid of Vazquez when he is under control for the next few years, and Contreras is not. 

 

Are we really advocating giving Contreras 13 million a year over a few years.  How old is he again.  How many great years has he had. 

 

He was great in the second half of last year.  He was a horse in the playoffs.  However we do not have monopoly money here.  If you sign Conteras for this goofy amount of money, Kiss Buerhle goodbye.  Because how much do you think your best horse is going to cost you.  I would rather spend that type of money on Buerhle over spending it on Contreras.

 

 

Agreed very much so.

 

If Philadelphia wants a starter that badly, and Gillick views Abreu as his biggest chip, it's Contreras plus a prospect or nothing at all if we are talking Abreu here. The Sox do NOT need to make the upgrade - I personally feel if all is said and done that the Sox would be better without it, for reasons not including offense - so no mater how you look at it, the Sox have the leverage in the deal. If KW were to trade Contreras, he would need to get absolute full value out of him, and perhaps more...he's said that already a couple times. He sees no reason to move Contreras at all, but knows he has the depth and flexibility to do so if he gets a good enough offer.

 

I have said it once before, KW has put himself in a wonderful position.

[SSH2005]

Outside of all the SABR stats being spun out.

 

Lets get back to common sense.  Why would we get rid of Vazquez when he is under control for the next few years, and Contreras is not. 

 

Are we really advocating giving Contreras 13 million a year over a few years.  How old is he again.  How many great years has he had. 

 

He was great in the second half of last year.  He was a horse in the playoffs.  However we do not have monopoly money here.  If you sign Conteras for this goofy amount of money, Kiss Buerhle goodbye.  Because how much do you think your best horse is going to cost you.  I would rather spend that type of money on Buerhle over spending it on Contreras.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Indeed. If we are trading anyone as of right now, it's Contreras. Regardless of who is the better pitcher, Vazquez is under the Sox control for 3 seasons. Contreras is only under the Sox control for 1 season and they get no for compensation if they lose him to free agency. It's just common sense. If anyone is getting traded it's Contreras.

 

Back to Vazquez... I think he will pitch like Freddy did when we first acquired him -- crappy at the Cell and good on the road. And just like Freddy, I think Vazquez will get a little better at pitching at the Cell after awhile. Freddy put up a horrid 5.37 ERA at the Cell in 2004 but improved to a 4.38 ERA at the Cell in 2005. Vazquez will probably work on his sinker a bit more at the Cell and that will help him keep the ball in the park.

[Guest JimH]

Hijack my butt.  Just a well reasoned response (albeit sorta drunk) to someone claiming to have a devining rod into the mind of KW.  I understand that SABR backlash, but for being buzzed only spelling "Vasquez" wrong once or twice can't be that hard of foul.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Well, please show me where I said I had a devining rod into the mind of KW.

 

I think whatever you're drinking isn't strong enough, but what's the difference, you don't make sense either way.

 

Maybe if you employed common sense a little more than stats, you'd understand which way the White Sox are going, instead of leaning on your opinion.

[quickman]

Hijack my butt.  Just a well reasoned response (albeit sorta drunk) to someone claiming to have a devining rod into the mind of KW.  I understand that SABR backlash, but for being buzzed only spelling "Vasquez" wrong once or twice can't be that hard of foul.

 

At least I got those stats right! 

 

Besides, sabrmetrics are so much more relevant with a world series champ, it's like the intersection of theory and practice!  In this case forcing SABR to re-evaluate the importance of defense and speed.

 

 

Let me guess your taking Stats this semester.

[Guest JimH]

Agreed very much so.

 

If Philadelphia wants a starter that badly, and Gillick views Abreu as his biggest chip, it's Contreras plus a prospect or nothing at all if we are talking Abreu here.  The Sox do NOT need to make the upgrade - I personally feel if all is said and done that the Sox would be better without it, for reasons not including offense - so no mater how you look at it, the Sox have the leverage in the deal.  If KW were to trade Contreras, he would need to get absolute full value out of him, and perhaps more...he's said that already a couple times.  He sees no reason to move Contreras at all, but knows he has the depth and flexibility to do so if he gets a good enough offer. 

 

I have said it once before, KW has put himself in a wonderful position.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Great post, nicely put.

[Dick Allen]

Abreu is not going to be playing for the White Sox. He is owed $31 million the next 2 years with an $18 million option for 2008 that he wants picked up to waive his no-trade clause. The Phillies aren't going to eat any of that money, and the White Sox aren't going to be writing Abreu those huge checks.

[Guest JimH]

Abreu is not going to be playing for the White Sox. He is owed $31 million the next 2 years with an $18 million option for 2008 that he wants picked up to waive his no-trade clause. The Phillies aren't going to eat any of that money, and the White Sox aren't going to be writing Abreu those huge checks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Thank you DA, the voice of reason, the voice of non-fantasy baseball. Common sense prevails for a post.

[qwerty]

Abreu use to tap this... former miss universe.

 

 

Anyone know the story about abreu and her? Quite brutal.

Edited January 12, 2006 by q\/\/3r+y

[chitownsportsfan]

No, I'm not taking stats this semester. To respond to the question about contracts: I agree, Vasquez being under our control for more than this season is a bonus. I don't agree this is a reason KW won't trade him. Let me reason with you, I won't use any stats, since you seem to just reject them on sight.

 

KW has shown a propensity for trading prospects this offseason in an attempt to "win now", i.e. in 2006, not 2007, 2008, etc. So, with that in mind, why wouldn't KW spin off Vasquez for Abreu if the Sox were scuffling because they couldn't score runs? What if Thome gets hurt? I mean, to say in a post that KW will never trade a player if idiotic. It doesn't take stats to figure that out. I called Jimh out on it.

 

Besides, here is one stat you need to know regarding Vasquez: 12 million dollars a freaking season, or more than 10 times what Bmac will cost.