Re-sign Contreras, trade Vazquez mid-season

[VAfan]

Thanks, Beck72 and others. It is nice to see some people on Soxtalk don't really care for all the pointless personal bashing that seems to have taken over this site. It wasn't here when I first joined, and it has grown rather tiresome.

 

But let me return to the subject.

 

First, I think Jose Contreras is a vastly superior pitcher to Javier Vazquez, and I think he will remain a superior pitcher for the rest of Contreras's career, even if Vazquez can somehow find some of his Montreal form.

 

Second, I believe KW understands that Contreras is a superior pitcher, and therefore will make every effort to extend Contreras's contract beyond the end of 2006. I think the main issue is length more than money at the moment, with the Sox not liking to tie up pitchers longer than 3 years, and Contreras wanting 3 MORE years for a total of 4. I expect they'll end up finding some middle ground where both sides can be happy. Remember, as far as budget goes, any extension for Jose goes on 2007's ledger, and won't have a whit of impact on this year's.

 

Third, I'm sure KW isn't planning on trading Vazquez at the deadline, and if the Sox don't have any major holes to fill then, he won't be traded. My point has been threefold:

 

1. Vazquez will likely have more trade value in the middle of 2006 than he has now.

 

2. If we decide to trade pitching mid-season to fill major holes, Vazquez, who will still probably be the weakest starter at that point, is the logical first choice. Unless he makes a DRAMATIC turnaround, would any of you start him ahead of Contreras, Buehrle, Garcia, or Garland in a playoff game????

 

3. We cannot get real value by trading Contreras at this point because he has only one year left on his contract. It makes much more sense to re-sign Jose. After all, he is still our best starter, as he proved once he found his true pitching groove in the middle of last year. If we're facing down the Yankees in the postseason, wouldn't you want him on the mound ahead of anyone else we have?

[RockRaines]

I couldnt resist.  It was there, I had to do it.

Snake Oil is still funny...hahahahaha

[beck72]

It is nice to see some people on Soxtalk don't really care for all the pointless personal bashing that seems to have taken over this site.  It wasn't here when I first joined, and it has grown rather tiresome.

Very true. If people don't like a thread or the opinions of a poster, they should just stay away. It's one thing to argue. It's quite another to just launch personal attacks/ mock/ make fun of another poster. Last time I checked, there wasn't some hierarchy that allows some posters to bash other posters. Yet this is something the mods should address and bring to their attention if it happens.

 

It's amazing how people can forget the old maxim of "If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all".

 

Now, back to the regularly scheduled programming.

[Guest JimH]

Thanks, Beck72 and others.  It is nice to see some people on Soxtalk don't really care for all the pointless personal bashing that seems to have taken over this site.  It wasn't here when I first joined, and it has grown rather tiresome.

 

But let me return to the subject.

 

First, I think Jose Contreras is a vastly superior pitcher to Javier Vazquez, and I think he will remain a superior pitcher for the rest of Contreras's career, even if Vazquez can somehow find some of his Montreal form. 

 

Second, I believe KW understands that Contreras is a superior pitcher, and therefore will make every effort to extend Contreras's contract beyond the end of 2006.  I think the main issue is length more than money at the moment, with the Sox not liking to tie up pitchers longer than 3 years, and Contreras wanting 3 MORE years for a total of 4.  I expect they'll end up finding some middle ground where both sides can be happy.  Remember, as far as budget goes, any extension for Jose goes on 2007's ledger, and won't have a whit of impact on this year's. 

 

Third, I'm sure KW isn't planning on trading Vazquez at the deadline, and if the Sox don't have any major holes to fill then, he won't be traded.  My point has been threefold:

 

1.  Vazquez will likely have more trade value in the middle of 2006 than he has now.

 

2.  If we decide to trade pitching mid-season to fill major holes, Vazquez, who will still probably be the weakest starter at that point, is the logical first choice.  Unless he makes a DRAMATIC turnaround, would any of you start him ahead of Contreras, Buehrle, Garcia, or Garland in a playoff game????

 

3.  We cannot get real value by trading Contreras at this point because he has only one year left on his contract.  It makes much more sense to re-sign Jose.  After all, he is still our best starter, as he proved once he found his true pitching groove in the middle of last year.  If we're facing down the Yankees in the postseason, wouldn't you want him on the mound ahead of anyone else we have?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Now that the group hug therapy is over, let's talk about Vazquez.

 

Have you seen him pitch or are you just going off stats like you usually do?

 

As for Contreras, either they will sign him to an extension that isn't outrageos (and I hope they do) or he'll be moved. Probably sooner than later. The White Sox are one of very few teams with a starting pitching surplus. If they get overwhelmed by a deal for a pitcher who won't sign an extension, good for the White Sox. It's smart business.

[quickman]

Now that the group hug therapy is over, let's talk about Vazquez.

 

Have you seen him pitch or are you just going off stats like you usually do?

 

As for Contreras, either they will sign him to an extension that isn't outrageos (and I hope they do) or he'll be moved.  Probably sooner than later.  The White Sox are one of very few teams with a starting pitching surplus.  If they get overwhelmed by a deal for a pitcher who won't sign an extension, good for the White Sox.  It's smart business.

 

 

for many here its not about good business, its about who there favorite player is. Vasquez is five or six years younger than contraras and needs to visit the psych counselor once a month instead of weekly.

[jenksd]

I think he uses that word quite exponentially.

 

o rly?

[knightni]

o rly?

ya rly.

[jenksd]

NO WAI!!

[VAfan]

for many here its not about good business, its about who there favorite player is. Vasquez is five or six years younger than contraras and needs to visit the psych counselor once a month instead of weekly.

 

For me it is all about the quality of the player. I didn't grow to love Frank Thomas because he was a nice guy. He was just the best hitter, BY FAR, to ever don a Sox uniform (Shoeless Joe included). But I understand why the Sox had to cut him loose this year.

 

And, JimH, yes I believe that performance in baseball shows up in the stat sheets. In any other sport, stats don't mean that much, but in baseball, they mean a hell of a lot. Not everything. But it's pretty damn close.

 

If you want to add character or performance under pressure as a measure, then that would just elevate Contreras another couple of steps in my mind. I'll grant you, he sure didn't seem to be that kind of pitcher in June of last year. But once he found his Cuban personna again, I don't think he's going to lose it for the rest of his career. Vazquez, on the other hand, seems to me like he's lost his way on the mound. 65 HRs in 2 years. Maybe he'll find his way again, and I hope so, and if he does, then I won't want to trade him. But until he proves it, he would be the guy I'd consider moving at the deadline if I the Sox have some major hole(s) to fill.

[Guest JimH]

In any other sport, stats don't mean that much, but in baseball, they mean a hell of a lot.  Not everything.  But it's pretty damn close. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I'm sure glad Guillen with his world championship ring don't think the same way you do.

[DBAHO]

If you want to add character or performance under pressure as a measure, then that would just elevate Contreras another couple of steps in my mind.  I'll grant you, he sure didn't seem to be that kind of pitcher in June of last year.  But once he found his Cuban personna again, I don't think he's going to lose it for the rest of his career.  Vazquez, on the other hand, seems to me like he's lost his way on the mound.  65 HRs in 2 years.  Maybe he'll find his way again, and I hope so, and if he does, then I won't want to trade him.  But until he proves it, he would be the guy I'd consider moving at the deadline if I the Sox have some major hole(s) to fill.

Wouldn't you say exactly at this point 1 year ago, what you are saying about Javier Vazquez right now, is what you would have thought of Jose Contreras, based on the all important stats?

 

How can you be sure that Contreras is definitely going to be able to pitch at the same high level that he pitched in late 2005 for the next few years at his age? If he leaves us, I doubt that will be the case.

 

As for Vazquez, let's see if Coop can work some magic with him, like he's done with the rest of our starters. Just remember at mid-season 2005, a LOT of people wanted Jose Contreras traded for Jason Schmidt. Just a word of warning if Mr. Vazquez doesn't set the world on fire in the 1st half of 2006.

[kdhargo]

All of this "We need pitching depth" talk, I believe, is very misguided -- especially when referencing the 2001-2004 team and its rotation.

 

The Sox had one or two "quality" pitchers that you could count on, and had plugged the rest of the rotation with "let's hope this works out" pitchers. For example, the '01 rotation featured a strong Buehrle and (hindsight non-withstanding) a reputable David Wells. Who were the other 3? Rocky Biddle, James Baldwin and Dan Wright. *shudder*.

 

In '02, the rotation yet again feature Buehrle, Jon Garland's first year full time in the rotation and ... Dan Wright, Todd Ritchie and Gary Glover. *puke*

 

In '03, you see possible the strongest rotation of the 01-04 quoted era, with Buehrle, Colon, Garland Loaiza and Wright. However, looking at this rotation from the beginning of the year, it featured a solid Buehrle, a solid Colon, a thus far underachieving Jon Garland and Loaiza/Wright. Now, honestly, he here who thought Loaiza would win 21 raise your hand and then leave because we know you are lying.

 

In '04, you see the Sox starting to bring #2-#3 type pitchers to fill out the entire rotation, with a year's end rotation of Buehrle, Garland, Garcia, Contreras and ... *shudder* ... Scott Schoeneweis.

 

The point to this rambling thus far? The Sox with 3-4 solid and reliable pitchers in the front four of the rotation, even with an "unknown" in the 5 spot, is still light years better than the crud the Sox threw together from '01-'04. In the scenario of trading away Contreras and putting McCarthy in the 5th spot, should someone above McCarthy go down, I would feel a whole hell of a lot better w/ 3 workhorses, McCarthy and "a different 5th" then I did during the early part of this decade. Case in point: Sox + Tejada + possible good 4-man rotation w/ "unknown 5th start" is still better than the pre-WS years. And all this talk is worst case scenario should any of the workhorses of Buehrle, Garland, Garcia and Vazquez -- all perrennial 200+ innings (minus Garland of course) pitchers -- go down.

 

I don't see all the doom and gloom of "injury possibilities" that those anti-Tejada acquisition individuals speak about.

Edited January 5, 2006 by kdhargo

[Balta1701]

I find myself agreeing with a lot of the previous post, and I have 1 thing to add to it...

 

If Brandon McCarthy can be as dominating of a pitcher as I think he can be, and as good as he looked at the end of last season...think about this. Out of the Bullpen and working spot-start duty, he might be able to work in 60-90 innings depending on everyone's exact health.

 

If he's in the starting rotatino, he'd probably pitch around 200 innings.

 

By placing him in the bullpen, we're losing a lot of potentially very good innings from the kid. We would get some valuable innings out of him to be sure, but compared with what he could do as a starter, he'd be spending a lot of time on the bench.

 

If BMac could do waht he did at the end of last year, the more innings he pitches the better off we are.

[YASNY]

I find myself agreeing with a lot of the previous post, and I have 1 thing to add to it...

 

If Brandon McCarthy can be as dominating of a pitcher as I think he can be, and as good as he looked at the end of last season...think about this.  Out of the Bullpen and working spot-start duty, he might be able to work in 60-90 innings depending on everyone's exact health.

 

If he's in the starting rotatino, he'd probably pitch around 200 innings.

 

By placing him in the bullpen, we're losing a lot of potentially very good innings from the kid.  We would get some valuable innings out of him to be sure, but compared with what he could do as a starter, he'd be spending a lot of time on the bench.

 

If BMac could do waht he did at the end of last year, the more innings he pitches the better off we are.

 

Then again, because he's not quite as filled out as he's going to be, and therefore does not have the muscle structure he will eventually have, those extra innings could be detrimental to BMac in the long term.

[Rowand44]

  Not everything.  But it's pretty damn close. 

 

 

Ya....no.

[witesoxfan]

To address the main topic of the thread...the thought of trading Vazquez is ludicrous in my mind. He's signed to a very affordable contract, and is signed for 3 years...as DBAH0 pointed out. Considering our best true prospect in Chris Young(though this can be misleading, as McCarthy is probably the best unproven player in the White Sox system, though he is really not considered a prospect anymore) was traded for him...as Rock pointed out...along with relief depth in Vizcaino who is also relatively affordable, thus taking away from an area where the Sox depth was not great, kind of points to the fact that Vazquez is going absolutely no where. KW had interest in him when Minaya was trying to trade him after 2002, but ended up with Colon instead, he had interest in him when he was traded to New York, and he was willing to basically give up Konerko and Garland after the '04 season when RJ was asking to be traded. He has finally landed him, and there is no way in hell he is going to give him up at this point.

 

It would also be dumb to resign Contreras...as Cerb pointed out...due to his asking price and his age, along with uncertainty of how he will fair next year. I figure he's probably a 15-18 game winner with an ERA in the 3.00-3.50 range, but that's not a guarantee in the least. Resigning Contreras cripples any moves the Sox intend to make next season...like, for instance, negotiating a contract extension for Buehrle, which has to be a high priority on KW's list for not only this season but for the offseason too...you have to lock Buehrle up for as many years as possible. With the contracts starters are getting, MB almost has to be looking at 4-5 years in the $11-12 mill per year range...in order to be able to afford that, you must cut ties with Contreras.

 

As for McCarthy...I have no problem with him being in a swingman type role this year for the Sox. Let him fill out his body a little bit, and don't ruin the kids arm. He has a very bright future if he can stay healthy. Try and have him pitch in the neighborhood of 100 innings this year somehow, someway...perhaps by even having him make a couple starts for the Sox throughout the year. Anything to get him innings. As it is, the Sox bullpen is not in great shape, so by having McCarthy in the pen, you basically already have one of the relievers you need, so no moves need to be made.

 

In the end, I really see no way Contreras is traded, unless somehow the O's see something in Contreras they really like, which I don't think is a possibility at all, or some team is willing to give up two top 10 prospects for him, whoever that would be.

[GreenSox]

Why did we trade for Vasquez in the first place if we are going to trade him at midseason. We aren't going to get back what we paid for him.

[VAfan]

Three points:

 

1. Pitching depth is critical for the regular season; pitching quality is critical for the postseason. For example, Mark Buehrle is very consistent in the regular season, but he's not a #1 postseason guy. In two out of his 3 starts, he would have been beaten if Jose Contreras or Freddie Garcia was on the other side.

 

Because Contreras is a quality #1 guy, we absolutely need him if the Sox want to make it to another World Series next year. Slotting Contreras #1 means our 2-4 guys are likely to have the advantage over their opponents' starters. If you took out Contreras and made our #2 (Buehrle) go against their #1, etc., our biggest advantage would be neutered. Give me last year's top 4 guys and I think we can beat the Yankees' new murderers' row lineup. Take out Contreras at the top and put Vazquez in at #4 and I think we'll get beaten in 5 or 6 games.

 

2. Anyone here think Javier Vazquez is a better pitcher than Contreras, Garcia, Buehrle, or Garland? Anyone even take him over Brandon McCarthy? If you want to challenge the premise of the post, you have to step forward and make the case that Vazquez is better than one of those guys.

 

3. I'd be willing to let Brandon McCarthy slide in and take Vazquez's place in mid-season next year, but I think it's risky believing a guy with his light frame can go a full season in the rotation at his age without going down with an injury.

 

There have been a lot of Bobby Abreu rumors on this site. To me, the time to trade for Abreu may well be this coming July, when he might be had for nothing more than Javier Vazquez (if the Phillies want to rebuild). If Brian Anderson is struggling (or Dye or Pods are hurt), that would be a trade that could help balance the Sox' lineup.

 

So, we'll see what happens. Whether or not Jose takes the Sox' extension offer, I believe we'll go to spring training and into the season with our 6 main starters. And I think that's the best choice the Sox can make.

[Guest JimH]

Three points:

 

1.  Pitching depth is critical for the regular season; pitching quality is critical for the postseason.  For example, Mark Buehrle is very consistent in the regular season, but he's not a #1 postseason guy.  In two out of his 3 starts, he would have been beaten if Jose Contreras or Freddie Garcia was on the other side. 

 

Because Contreras is a quality #1 guy, we absolutely need him if the Sox want to make it to another World Series next year.  Slotting Contreras #1 means our 2-4 guys are likely to have the advantage over their opponents' starters.  If you took out Contreras and made our #2 (Buehrle) go against their #1, etc., our biggest advantage would be neutered.  Give me last year's top 4 guys and I think we can beat the Yankees' new murderers' row lineup.    Take out Contreras at the top and put Vazquez in at #4 and I think we'll get beaten in 5 or 6 games.   

 

2.  Anyone here think Javier Vazquez is a better pitcher than Contreras, Garcia, Buehrle, or Garland?  Anyone even take him over Brandon McCarthy?  If you want to challenge the premise of the post, you have to step forward and make the case that Vazquez is better than one of those guys. 

 

3.  I'd be willing to let Brandon McCarthy slide in and take Vazquez's place in mid-season next year, but I think it's risky believing a guy with his light frame can go a full season in the rotation at his age without going down with an injury. 

 

There have been a lot of Bobby Abreu rumors on this site.  To me, the time to trade for Abreu may well be this coming July, when he might be had for nothing more than Javier Vazquez (if the Phillies want to rebuild).  If Brian Anderson is struggling (or Dye or Pods are hurt), that would be a trade that could help balance the Sox' lineup. 

 

So, we'll see what happens.  Whether or not Jose takes the Sox' extension offer, I believe we'll go to spring training and into the season with our 6 main starters.  And I think that's the best choice the Sox can make.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Point #2: Will you please throw your stats out the window for once and realize there is a lot more to baseball than numbers. I would, at this point, take Vazquez over McCarthy, and also Garland and Contreras. He has better stuff, but of course your stat books will not tell you that story.

 

They are not going to trade Vazquez, they traded for him for a reason.

[fathom]

Point #2:  Will you please throw your stats out the window for once and realize there is a lot more to baseball than numbers.  I would, at this point, take Vazquez over McCarthy, and also Garland and Contreras.  He has better stuff, but of course your stat books will not tell you that story.

 

 

Why would you take Vazquez over those guys? Unlike Vazquez, the other Sox pitchers have proven that their numbers won't inflate due to pitching at the Cell. As of right now, I'm just as confident in McCarthy as I am Vazquez. I know you like Vazquez, which is fine. He has dynamic stuff, and can go a lot of innings. The great thing about this is that we're talking about 6 very good pitchers....not many teams in the last few decades can claim the same thing.

[Rowand44]

Why would you take Vazquez over those guys?  Unlike Vazquez, the other Sox pitchers have proven that their numbers won't inflate due to pitching at the Cell.  As of right now, I'm just as confident in McCarthy as I am Vazquez.  I know you like Vazquez, which is fine.  He has dynamic stuff, and can go a lot of innings.  The great thing about this is that we're talking about 6 very good pitchers....not many teams in the last few decades can claim the same thing.

Actually, I think you can make a valid point for each and every one of those pitchers. Garland and JC have each had one fantastic season while Vaz has had a few and then obviously Brandon is still realitively unproven. That being said I would take all three of them over Vaz at this point and time but I could see Vaz being better then everyone next season except JC.

Edited January 9, 2006 by Rowand44

[SSH2005]

I would take Vazquez over McCarthy if money wasn't a factor but I sure wouldn't take Vazquez over Garland or Contreras. Contreras has shown that he can pitch at the Cell (3.78 ERA at home in 2005) and Garland is a sinkerballer so he is perfect for the Cell. I'm a bit worried about how Vazquez will pitch at the Cell since he's prone to giving up the longball. I think he will pitch well on the road and poorly at the Cell, just like Freddy did when we first acquired him.

[Kyyle23]

Why would you take Vazquez over those guys?  Unlike Vazquez, the other Sox pitchers have proven that their numbers won't inflate due to pitching at the Cell.  As of right now, I'm just as confident in McCarthy as I am Vazquez.  I know you like Vazquez, which is fine.  He has dynamic stuff, and can go a lot of innings.  The great thing about this is that we're talking about 6 very good pitchers....not many teams in the last few decades can claim the same thing.

 

i dont understand why we should have to choose. At this point, the 5 starters with the most MLB experience are Contreras, Garcia, Buehrle, Garland and Vazquez, not McCarthy. I love McCarthy's stuff and makeup, but he is probably going to have to come to terms with being the 6th starter/long reliever this year, and I dont really think this is going to hurt him in the long run anyways. Besides, you dont put a pitcher with Vazquez' salary in long relief, and you dont trade him when your top 4 pitchers logged over 200 innings last year. Its a non-factor for me, unless a starter is traded, I see McCarthy starting the year in the pen. And you are right fathom, we are talking about 6 very good pitchers.....one year after having 5 very good pitchers and one sometimes good pitcher.

Edited January 9, 2006 by kyyle23

[witesoxfan]

2.  Anyone here think Javier Vazquez is a better pitcher than Contreras, Garcia, Buehrle, or Garland?  Anyone even take him over Brandon McCarthy?  If you want to challenge the premise of the post, you have to step forward and make the case that Vazquez is better than one of those guys. 

 

Give me Javy over Contreras, McCarthy, and Garcia. Vazquez's numbers were really only skewed in 2 spots - hits, and runs allowed. Both are very directly related, and with him pitching in a big ballpark while also pitching with a mediocre defense behind him, he struggled. Moving to the Cell, I expect to see his homer totals perhaps increase a little bit, but he now has one of the better game callers in the game catching him, while also having one of the best defenses in the majors playing behind him...I see him improving quite a bit.

 

If I had to take a guess as to where his numbers will be...I'll say anywhere from 14-20 wins, depending upon run support, with a 3.25-3.50 ERA and a WHIP around 1.18ish and 200-220 IP with better consistency than people think.

[SSH2005]

Whole lot of nothin'

Ken Davidoff

http://www.newsday.com/sports/printedition...ny-sports-print

Free advice

 

The White Sox should sell high on Jose Contreras and trade him now.

 

Remember, as of Aug. 1, Contreras was targeted to be Chicago's long reliever in October, not their ace.

 

Contreras, with less than three years' experience, can become a free agent after this season, thanks to the same contractual clause the Yankees gave Hideki Matsui.

Edited January 9, 2006 by SSH2005