Re-sign Contreras, trade Vazquez mid-season

[southsideirish71]

No, I'm not taking stats this semester.  To respond to the question about contracts: I agree, Vasquez being under our control for more than this season is a bonus.  I don't agree this is a reason KW won't trade him.  Let me reason with you, I won't use any stats, since you seem to just reject them on sight.

 

KW has shown a propensity for trading prospects this offseason in an attempt to "win now", i.e. in 2006, not 2007, 2008, etc.  So, with that in mind, why wouldn't KW spin off Vasquez for Abreu if the Sox were scuffling because they couldn't score runs?  What if Thome gets hurt?  I mean, to say in a post that KW will never trade a player if idiotic.  It doesn't take stats to figure that out.  I called Jimh out on it.

 

Besides, here is one stat you need to know regarding Vasquez: 12 million dollars a freaking season, or more than 10 times what Bmac will cost.

 

 

Actually KW is in the Win for a long time mode. He wants to build a dynasty. So lets propose we trade Vasquez, and then we lose Conteras to FA. Who is our 5th starter next year. Is this 5th starter better than Vasquez? And now that we have Abreu's large salary on the docket, who are you trading so we can aford Mark Buerhle after the 2007 season.

[Soxbadger]

They wanted Vazquez over Colon a few years back, from what ive seen the Sox have really wanted him for a long time and kept coming up short.

 

Another thing to remember is, Contreras tanked as a Yankee. Vazquez tanked as a Yankee, and as a Diamondback. It seems that Vazquez did his best when he was comfortable, and perhaps coming to the Sox where there is pretty big latin influence will have a calming effect on Vazquez.

 

Who knows, but the talent is there.

[chitownsportsfan]

You know the thing about 5th starters is: they just aren't that hard to find. So, say we lose Count to FA in 2007, we have the following pitchers to choose from:

 

RHSP:

 

Paul Wilson (Team Option)

Wade Miller

Tomo Ohka

Ramon Ortiz

Jason Johnson (Mutual Option)

Gil Meche

Joe Mays

Byung-Hyun Kim (Team Option)

Sidney Ponson

Tony Armas Jr.

Jose Contreras

Kevin Jarvis

Greg Maddux

Brian Moehler

Jason Schmidt

Jeff Suppan

Rick Helling

Woody Williams

Brad Radke

Kerry Wood (Mutual Option)

Mike Mussina (Team Option)

Cory Lidle

Kelvim Escobar

Chan Ho Park

Ryan Franklin

Orlando Hernandez

Jaret Wright (Team + Player Void options)

Kip Wells

Jason Marquis

Vicente Padilla

Adam Eaton

Tim Wakefield (Annual Team Renew Option)

 

LHSP:

 

Ted Lilly

Brian Anderson

Mark Redman

Shawn Estes

Tom Glavine

Kevin Appier

Jamie Moyer

Andy Pettitte

Mark Mulder

Barry Zito

Doug Davis

Randy Wolf

Mark Buerhle (Team Option)

David Wells

Darrell May

Eric Milton (Void Option)

 

My personal recomendation would be to teach Neal Cotts another pitch and move him into the rotation: provided he has another "lights out" year in 2006. Still, there are plenty of names to choose from should Contreras walk. I understand that KW is "trying to build a dynasty", but that really says nothing in and of itself. If the marginal cost to retain Contreras is too high in 2006, than someone else comes in who KW believes can do the job. I don't believe Contreras has much trade value, unless a team becomes desperate at the last minute and doesn't give a crap (Yankees? Sawx? Mets? Dodgers? Cubs?) about money or next year.

 

In my mind , I do think it's wise to plan years ahead as a GM, but immediate returns are always worth more than future returns. If the Sox need short-term solutions (more offense) in 2006, then long-term solutions (next year's pitching) should go out the window.

[Guest JimH]

No, I'm not taking stats this semester.  To respond to the question about contracts: I agree, Vasquez being under our control for more than this season is a bonus.  I don't agree this is a reason KW won't trade him.  Let me reason with you, I won't use any stats, since you seem to just reject them on sight.

 

KW has shown a propensity for trading prospects this offseason in an attempt to "win now", i.e. in 2006, not 2007, 2008, etc.  So, with that in mind, why wouldn't KW spin off Vasquez for Abreu if the Sox were scuffling because they couldn't score runs?  What if Thome gets hurt?  I mean, to say in a post that KW will never trade a player if idiotic.  It doesn't take stats to figure that out.  I called Jimh out on it.

 

Besides, here is one stat you need to know regarding Vasquez: 12 million dollars a freaking season, or more than 10 times what Bmac will cost.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

What is really idiotic is putting words in someone's mouth. Advice, don't make a habit of it. Never did I say KW would never trade Vazquez.

 

What I did say is they aren't going to trade Vazquez, the context of which means, they aren't going to trade Vazquez for Abreu. Talk about expensive contracts, duh, have you seen Abreu's? Huge, about the same "freakin" number as Vazquez, or roughly 10 times the cost of Ryan Sweeney or Jerry Owens or whatever hitter they might be forced to bring up or pick up on the cheap.

 

Their mantra has always been "pitching wins". And all of a sudden they will decide to trade pitching that they control contract-wise for an extremely expensive hitter? No, it will not happen.

 

Contreras for Abreu? Sure, might happen. Why, you might ask? Well, it's because Contreras is a looming free agent. Vazquez? No, they have known costs with him.

 

Logic and Reasoning 301, Baseball Style. No stats necessary.

[fathom]

Too many people think that baseball is like the NBA in regards to sign-and-trades. Even though it's a frequent situation used in basketball, it rarely occurs in baseball. As JimH frequently states, one of the main reasons the Sox traded for Vazquez is that they had him locked up for a few years.

 

The more I think about things, the more I want to see McCarthy in the bullpen this season. His situation reminds me of R. Madson on the Phillies. Considering the other names being thrown around for our bullpen, I'd be much happier just keeping Contreras this season, and having McCarthy in the pen.

[Kyyle23]

Besides, here is one stat you need to know regarding Vasquez: 12 million dollars a freaking season, or more than 10 times what Bmac will cost.

 

The Diamondbacks are picking up a portion of this contract, no?

[VAfan]

Hey, chitownsportsfan, welcome aboard. (Maybe JimH will follow your posts and attempt to rip them as he does mine. Just remember to have a thick skin, and stick to your understanding of baseball, sabremetrics included.)

 

Let me add a few comments to those made since my last addition to this thread.

 

1. As the title of the post states, and as my #84 post reiterated, the Sox need to re-sign Contreras to an extension if the they want to entertain the Vazquez trade that I suggest. And there is every reason to do so.

 

First, Contreras was a great #1 pitcher on a World Series champion, and no other pitcher the Sox have can fill those shoes. In 4 lengthy starts, he never surrendered more than 3 runs. Mark Buehrle, whom many of you defend as God, gave up 4 runs in two of his 3 starts, and only had one exceptional game out of 3. (Freddie Garcia also pitched better than MB in the postseason but can't really be a #1 if we start at home.) If you let Contreras walk, you DRAMATICALLY weaken the Sox starting rotation for the postseason because all the matchups change. And, given the fact that we won the WS by a combined 6 runs, it is pretty damn crucial to win those matchups.

 

Second, Contreras turned into an 11-2 dominant pitcher in the second half last year after he returned to the 3/4 delivery he'd used to dominate in Cuba. There is no reason to suggest that he can't keep this kind of form for the rest of his career. The man is physically the strongest of any of our starting pitchers. When Roger Clemens can perform as he has well into his 40's, why would any of you believe that Jose Contreras is somehow going to drop off in the next couple of years??

 

2. Contreras is worth the $13 million/year he apparently is asking for, and I would bet the Sox would basically agree to that figure if he agreed to a two-year and not a 3-year extension. If the Sox can afford Contreras at $8 million, they can afford him at $13 million after he leads us to another WS crown in 2006. Compared to AJ Burnett or Kevin Millwood, Contreras would be a bargain.

 

3. I do have my doubts about Brian Anderson, mostly because he showed ZERO plate discipline in September (no BBs and 13 Ks in 34 ABs), and didn't show that much discipline in AAA. Anderson's AAA numbers aren't really any better than Joe Borchard's. So let's just say that until he proves something, I'm a skeptic. If he gives us Rowand-like defense, we may be able to allow him to develop offensively, but I hope we don't have to rely on him for more than about 250 ABs.

 

4. The fact that KW has coveted Javier Vazquez for some time has no bearing on whether it would be a good move to trade him at the deadline this year for the right player(s). If Contreras has signed an extension and Vazquez is still the weakest of our starting 5, then why wouldn't KW consider trading him if he needs to fill a major hole on our team? I'm sure KW covets JV for his potential, but he may decide after a closer look that the potential is not there, or that Vazquez has more value in bringing us a player that will help us win a second WS than he would have out of the bullpen in the postseason (where he would go if he's not outpitching JC, MB, FG, or JG). I'm not saying it is likely that such a trade will be made, only that it makes more sense than trading Vazquez (or Contreras) now.

 

5. Fair point about Abreu wanting a team to exercise his $18 million option to waive his no trade. We'll see if it happens. Since Abreu's never going to see that money anyway, it would be senseless to hold up a deal on those grounds, especially a deal that could send him from underachieving Philly to the WS Champion ChiSox and our Venezuelan manager. Moreover, with Thome protecting him in 2004, Abreu posted an OPS in the .970s. Last year with Thome hurt, he dropped almost .100 points. I could see him waiving his no-trade to come to the Sox.

 

It's a different point whether Philly would be willing to eat part of Abreu's $16 million 2007 deal. For Vazquez straight up, probably not. For another quality prospect like Gio Gonzalez (do we have one?) thrown in, I could see it happening.

[fathom]

- Roger Clemens is a freak of nature. To compare Contreras, who's only really been dominant for 1/2 of one season, with one of the greatest pitchers of all-time, is a major mistake.

 

- Contreras isn't a 13 million dollar a year pitcher, and if someone's willing to pay him that much, I pray it's not the Sox.

 

- Brian Anderson might not show much patience, but neither did A. Rowand.

 

- If you've followed KW closely for the last few years, you'd know that there's certain players that he wants to have on his team. Vazquez is one of those guys, and he's not getting rid of him now.

 

- The Sox aren't going to trade one of their main 6 starters at the trade deadline if they're still in the race.

[southsideirish71]

3. I do have my doubts about Brian Anderson, mostly because he showed ZERO plate discipline in September (no BBs and 13 Ks in 34 ABs), and didn't show that much discipline in AAA. Anderson's AAA numbers aren't really any better than Joe Borchard's. So let's just say that until he proves something, I'm a skeptic. If he gives us Rowand-like defense, we may be able to allow him to develop offensively, but I hope we don't have to rely on him for more than about 250 ABs.

 

I know they traded your buddy away, but let go. Comparing Anderson to Borchards numbers are a joke.

 

Borchard hits in the .260's in AAA, puts up good home run totals. BTW he has been there for 3 plus years.

 

Anderson was in AAA one year, he hit .295 with a higher OPS(829) than Borchard.

 

But because Anderson isnt in your good graces you forgo the process of actually reviewing their minor league numbers. Just make a silly comparison and then move on.

 

And on the Contreras had a great 2nd half and a good postseason. No one is questioning that. But take a good look at the careers of Buerhle vs Contreras and tell me who you would rather have.

Edited January 12, 2006 by southsideirish71

[Guest JimH]

Hey, chitownsportsfan, welcome aboard.  (Maybe JimH will follow your posts and attempt to rip them as he does mine.  Just remember to have a thick skin, and stick to your understanding of baseball, sabremetrics included.)

 

Let me add a few comments to those made since my last addition to this thread.

 

1.  As the title of the post states, and as my #84 post reiterated, the Sox need to re-sign Contreras to an extension if the they want to entertain the Vazquez trade that I suggest.  And there is every reason to do so.

 

First, Contreras was a great #1 pitcher on a World Series champion, and no other pitcher the Sox have can fill those shoes.  In 4 lengthy starts, he never surrendered more than 3 runs.  Mark Buehrle, whom many of you defend as God, gave up 4 runs in two of his 3 starts, and only had one exceptional game out of 3.  (Freddie Garcia also pitched better than MB in the postseason but can't really be a #1 if we start at home.)  If you let Contreras walk, you DRAMATICALLY weaken the Sox starting rotation for the postseason because all the matchups change.  And, given the fact that we won the WS by a combined 6 runs, it is pretty damn crucial to win those matchups. 

 

Second, Contreras turned into an 11-2 dominant pitcher in the second half last year after he returned to the 3/4 delivery he'd used to dominate in Cuba.  There is no reason to suggest that he can't keep this kind of form for the rest of his career.  The man is physically the strongest of any of our starting pitchers.  When Roger Clemens can perform as he has well into his 40's, why would any of you believe that Jose Contreras is somehow going to drop off in the next couple of years??

 

2.  Contreras is worth the $13 million/year he apparently is asking for, and I would bet the Sox would basically agree to that figure if he agreed to a two-year and not a 3-year extension.  If the Sox can afford Contreras at $8 million, they can afford him at $13 million after he leads us to another WS crown in 2006.  Compared to AJ Burnett or Kevin Millwood, Contreras would be a bargain.

 

3.  I do have my doubts about Brian Anderson, mostly because he showed ZERO plate discipline in September (no BBs and 13 Ks in 34 ABs), and didn't show that much discipline in AAA.  Anderson's AAA numbers aren't really any better than Joe Borchard's.  So let's just say that until he proves something, I'm a skeptic.  If he gives us Rowand-like defense, we may be able to allow him to develop offensively, but I hope we don't have to rely on him for more than about 250 ABs.

 

4.  The fact that KW has coveted Javier Vazquez for some time has no bearing on whether it would be a good move to trade him at the deadline this year for the right player(s).  If Contreras has signed an extension and Vazquez is still the weakest of our starting 5, then why wouldn't KW consider trading him if he needs to fill a major hole on our team?  I'm sure KW covets JV for his potential, but he may decide after a closer look that the potential is not there, or that Vazquez has more value in bringing us a player that will help us win a second WS than he would have out of the bullpen in the postseason (where he would go if he's not outpitching JC, MB, FG, or JG).  I'm not saying it is likely that such a trade will be made, only that it makes more sense than trading Vazquez (or Contreras) now. 

 

5.  Fair point about Abreu wanting a team to exercise his $18 million option to waive his no trade.  We'll see if it happens.  Since Abreu's never going to see that money anyway, it would be senseless to hold up a deal on those grounds, especially a deal that could send him from underachieving Philly to the WS Champion ChiSox and our Venezuelan manager.  Moreover, with Thome protecting him in 2004, Abreu posted an OPS in the .970s.  Last year with Thome hurt, he dropped almost .100 points.  I could see him waiving his no-trade to come to the Sox. 

 

It's a different point whether Philly would be willing to eat part of Abreu's $16 million 2007 deal.  For Vazquez straight up, probably not.  For another quality prospect like Gio Gonzalez (do we have one?) thrown in, I could see it happening.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Again for the 10th time, I am following along with Ken Williams, I am not pretending I am GM of the team (like you do) and rationalize what's best based on statistics.

 

You still fail to answer why the White Sox would trade cost certain starting pitching for an expensive RF, when they have the RF of the future in the minors, and in addition, why do you think they went out and traded for Javier Vazquez? Go ahead, see if you can string two and two together and figure that out.

 

Maybe you and all the others on your SS Welcome Aboard can put your heads together, play fantasy baseball with your Sabr stats, and come up with an answer.

 

Did you MISS the part where Ken Williams said he'd like to bring McCarthy along slowly, let him gain some bulk, and have an insurance policy in case a starter goes down?

 

Did you MISS the part where Ken Williams said if he moves Contreras, it will be for pitching?

 

Did you MISS the part where the entire cornerstone of your argument about Contreras is based on your personal feelings and projections? And your comparisons of him to Roger Clemons?

 

Did you MISS the part where Vazquez averages 200 innings per year, he is a workhorse, and that's why they traded for him?

 

Yeah, I guess you DID miss all those things.

 

Somehow, it's not surprising to me.

 

Maybe I should respond to the two dozen or so posters who fail to see the logic in your ramblings with a hearty "welcome aboard"? And then go back and bump a bunch of threads?

 

whitesox.com message board is calling you ... loudly.

[BobDylan]

Again for the 10th time, I am following along with Ken Williams, I am not pretending I am GM of the team (like you do) and rationalize what's best based on statistics.

 

You still fail to answer why the White Sox would trade cost certain starting pitching for an expensive RF, when they have the RF of the future in the minors, and in addition, why do you think they went out and traded for Javier Vazquez?  Go ahead, see if you can string two and two together and figure that out.

 

Maybe you and all the others on your SS Welcome Aboard can put your heads together, play fantasy baseball with your Sabr stats, and come up with an answer.

 

Did you MISS the part where Ken Williams said he'd like to bring McCarthy along slowly, let him gain some bulk, and have an insurance policy in case a starter goes down?

 

Did you MISS the part where Ken Williams said if he moves Contreras, it will be for pitching?

 

Did you MISS the part where the entire cornerstone of your argument about Contreras is based on your personal feelings and projections?  And your comparisons of him to Roger Clemons?

 

Did you MISS the part where Vazquez averages 200 innings per year, he is a workhorse, and that's why they traded for him?

 

Yeah, I guess you DID miss all those things.

 

Somehow, it's not surprising to me.

 

Maybe I should respond to the two dozen or so posters who fail to see the logic in your ramblings with a hearty "welcome aboard"?  And then go back and bump a bunch of threads?

 

whitesox.com message board  is calling you ... loudly.

 

I'm coming in late, but the thought of Vazquez or Contreras as an 'insurance policy' to a struggling Brian Anderson seems quite logical. If Anderson can't play Rowand type defense, it'll show quickly. I think a lot of people on this board can attest to the importance Aaron Rowand's defense had in the White Sox run at the championship.

 

Kenny Williams has said a lot of things. After all, he said Jim Thome was the last move the Sox would make in the off-season. He proved that to be untrue. A sign and trade or a trade and trade is probably illogical in baseball, but a lot of moves Kenny Williams has made didn't quite make sense at first. (Carlos Lee for Podsednik and Vizciano...who really thought KW got market value for Carlos? But it worked out for the best.)

 

VAFan's idea is off the wall, I won't deny that, and though he's playing the role of GM here when he/she is indeed not Kenny Williams, I see plenty of logic behind these ideas, and something I wouldn't be shocked to see KW do.

 

I've learned to not really go by what KW says and just simply let him do what he does. It's impossible for any of us to predict what will actually happen, just as it is for Kenny. But whether he got Vazquez to trade him later or keep him for the duration of his contract makes sense both ways.

 

Say Jim Thome has the year he had last year...Javier Vazquez for Bobby Abreu makes a lot of sense for the White Sox. (Whether it does or doesn't make sense for the Phillies is another question.) Say Thome plays great and Anderson can't play defense worth a lick...why would it be impossible to trade one of these pitchers for a center fielder? Or say Anderson plays great defense and Thome doesn't struggle...keeping the pitchers seems plenty logical in that case.

 

Brian Anderson is an experiment at this point. It'll be an off-season evaluation that tells KW whether or not they need to replace him and whether or not Vazquez or Contreras can be made expendable.

 

It's a rare position Williams is in, but he's in a position where he can make a lot of moves to patch weaknesses on the team regardless.

Edited January 13, 2006 by BobDylan

[Milkman delivers]

I know they traded your buddy away, but let go.  Comparing Anderson to Borchards numbers are a joke.

 

Borchard hits in the .260's in AAA, puts up good home run totals.  BTW he has been there for 3 plus years. 

 

Anderson was in AAA one year, he hit .295 with a higher OPS(829) than Borchard. 

 

But because Anderson isnt in your good graces you forgo the process of actually reviewing their minor league numbers.  Just make a silly comparison and then move on.

 

And on the Contreras had a great 2nd half and a good postseason.  No one is questioning that.  But take a good look at the careers of Buerhle vs Contreras and tell me who you would rather have.

 

Garland and Garcia both had lower ERA's in the postseason, albeit in less starts.

[Guest JimH]

The "constant" in what KW said is pitching wins.

 

He built the team around pitching and fundamentals, it worked, he'll continue to do that.

 

As you say, from watching what he does, it's pretty straightforward. He builds around pitching and won't get caught in a bidding war to keep his pitching top notch.

 

Finding a good defensive CF isn't anywhere near as tough as finding starting pitching.

 

It would not shock me at all to see Contreras traded, I have said that all along. Another position player may be part of that trade, it's possible. However seeing what KW does, i.e. build around pitching, I don't see him abandoning that philosophy. Plus, with him saying a Contreras move would center around pitching, his intentions are pretty clear.

 

Trading pitching for an expensive RF is clear to VAFan and that's about it.

[daa84]

teh hot stove has officially hit stone cold

[chitownsportsfan]

What part of THEY WON'T TRADE VAZQUEZ, THEY HAVE BEEN CHASING HIM FOR 3 YEARS do you not understand?

 

I suppose I took that out of context when I infered that it meant they would "never trade him". Still, when people write in all caps, I tend to think they are screaming.

 

Did you write "never", of course not. But you did phrase your response in a) all caps, and B) a rhetorical and sarcastic question meant to belittle Vafan.

 

Differences of opinion are fine with me, this place would be pretty boring if we all agreed with each other. This debate is helping me get through another boring winter without Sox baseball. I appreciate your passion and love for baseball and Sox.

 

That said, I'm probably going to let this one go for now, I've already sunk too much energy in it.

 

On a side note, I took "logic and reasoning" my sophomore spring of college, I got a "C-" and never looked back. The final question involved a proof in symbolic language over 20 steps long. I couldn't figure it out, probably why I got a "C-" in the class.

 

I can't always "do the math" like the really hardcore stats guys, but like Michael Lewis quotes a baseball executive in Moneyball: I don't understand how to do a regression equation, but I can understand the implications.

[chitownsportsfan]

It would not shock me at all to see Contreras traded, I have said that all along. Another position player may be part of that trade, it's possible. However seeing what KW does, i.e. build around pitching, I don't see him abandoning that philosophy. Plus, with him saying a Contreras move would center around pitching, his intentions are pretty clear.

 

I completely agree with this. We can agree!

Edited January 13, 2006 by chitownsportsfan

[GoodAsGould]

JimH Id just like to say after this thread..... your my new favorite poster on soxtalk

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(JimH @ Jan 12, 2006 -> 06:25 PM)

Again for the 10th time, I am following along with Ken Williams, I am not pretending I am GM of the team (like you do) and rationalize what's best based on statistics.

 

You still fail to answer why the White Sox would trade cost certain starting pitching for an expensive RF, when they have the RF of the future in the minors, and in addition, why do you think they went out and traded for Javier Vazquez?  Go ahead, see if you can string two and two together and figure that out.

 

Maybe you and all the others on your SS Welcome Aboard can put your heads together, play fantasy baseball with your Sabr stats, and come up with an answer.

 

Did you MISS the part where Ken Williams said he'd like to bring McCarthy along slowly, let him gain some bulk, and have an insurance policy in case a starter goes down?

 

Did you MISS the part where Ken Williams said if he moves Contreras, it will be for pitching?

 

Did you MISS the part where the entire cornerstone of your argument about Contreras is based on your personal feelings and projections?  And your comparisons of him to Roger Clemons?

 

Did you MISS the part where Vazquez averages 200 innings per year, he is a workhorse, and that's why they traded for him?

 

Yeah, I guess you DID miss all those things.

 

Somehow, it's not surprising to me.

 

Maybe I should respond to the two dozen or so posters who fail to see the logic in your ramblings with a hearty "welcome aboard"?  And then go back and bump a bunch of threads?

 

whitesox.com message board  is calling you ... loudly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This wouldn't have been an issue if we just signed Brian Giles.

 

 

[quickman]

well my biggest issue is why they would want to trade a pitcher who is 28 and who they were rumored to get for years and is lock up for three years for a guy who plays right field with a huge contract who we don;t need. Somebody, college kids with all the stats, please tell me this. Contraras didn't sign. thats a fact, hope he does, but if he doesn't get the f*** out. and guess what ?we don't miss a beat. Stick your stats in your back pocket because vasquez traded this year won't happen in anyones wet dream. And thats a fact. and I will be happy to send a check to anyone who is willing to bet me on it. There its done quit acting stupid.

Edited January 13, 2006 by quickman

[Milkman delivers]

well my biggest issue is why they would want to trade a pitcher who is 28 and who they were rumored to get for years and is lock up for three years for a guy who plays right field with a huge contract who we don;t need. Somebody, college kids with all the stats, please tell me this. Contraras didn't sign. thats a fact, hope he does, but if he doesn't get the f*** out. and guess what ?we don't miss a beat. Stick your stats in your back pocket because vasquez traded this year won't happen in anyones wet dream. And thats a fact. and I will be happy to send a check to anyone who is willing to bet me on it. There its done quit acting stupid.

 

I resent that. I'm a college kid and the last thing I'm known for is using a lot of stats.

[quickman]

I resent that.  I'm a college kid and the last thing I'm known for is using a lot of stats.

 

 

The Milkman delivers

[DBAHO]

If Anderson can't play Rowand type defense, it'll show quickly. I think a lot of people on this board can attest to the importance Aaron Rowand's defense had in the White Sox run at the championship.

This is one thing we won't have to worry about in 2006. The minor league guru's here on Soxtalk have lauded Anderson's defense, and some people actually think he may be better then Rowand in CF. Plus he can play in any OF position, so there's that added versatility.

 

All Anderson should have to worry about is trying to hit over .250 which I think he should be able to do.

[SpringfieldFan]

There are certain center fielders who have had that "presence" if you know what I mean: Lofton, Griffey, Hunter... Does Anderson have the potential to have that kind of reputation? Is Rowand on the verge of achieving that elite status? Just wondering.

 

SFF

[DBAHO]

There are certain center fielders who have had that "presence" if you know what I mean:  Lofton, Griffey, Hunter...  Does Anderson have the potential to have that kind of reputation?  Is Rowand on the verge of achieving that elite status?  Just wondering.

 

SFF

I don't think Rowand's ever going to reach that elite status. He's not as bad as he was offensively in 2005, but I don't know if he's ever going to be able to produce to the same numbers as he did in 2004, so he'll probably be somewhere in the middle.

 

Still hitting in Philly will help him, so it'll be interesting to see how he does.

 

Personally I think Anderson's going to end up like a Jacque Jones type of player offensively (hopefully not as bad against lefties though).

[witesoxfan]

1.  As the title of the post states, and as my #84 post reiterated, the Sox need to re-sign Contreras to an extension if the they want to entertain the Vazquez trade that I suggest.  And there is every reason to do so.

 

They also have every reason in the world not to resign Contreras, while keeping Vazquez, and inserting McCarthy into the 5th slot in the rotation. The plan looks pretty clear to me right now...you will have 5 starters locked up for a very long time that are all very good pitchers. If your #5 starter(Vazquez this year, McCarthy next) could be your #1 come playoff time, I think you have accomplished your goal. Why mess with that?

 

First, Contreras was a great #1 pitcher on a World Series champion, and no other pitcher the Sox have can fill those shoes.  In 4 lengthy starts, he never surrendered more than 3 runs.  Mark Buehrle, whom many of you defend as God, gave up 4 runs in two of his 3 starts, and only had one exceptional game out of 3.  (Freddie Garcia also pitched better than MB in the postseason but can't really be a #1 if we start at home.)  If you let Contreras walk, you DRAMATICALLY weaken the Sox starting rotation for the postseason because all the matchups change.  And, given the fact that we won the WS by a combined 6 runs, it is pretty damn crucial to win those matchups. 

 

So if Contreras goes back to being the mediocre pitcher he was before 2005, the Sox suddenly can't replace that? I don't agree with your logic at all...Buehrle pitched very well in the postseason, Garcia did as well, Garland did as well...but was it the almighty Jose Contreras who put a spell on them to pitch well, and when he is gone, they will turn into s***ty pitchers come postseason time? I seriously am wondering what the hell you're trying to say there, or if you are seriously trying to actually say what you are actually trying to say.

 

Second, Contreras turned into an 11-2 dominant pitcher in the second half last year after he returned to the 3/4 delivery he'd used to dominate in Cuba.  There is no reason to suggest that he can't keep this kind of form for the rest of his career.  The man is physically the strongest of any of our starting pitchers.  When Roger Clemens can perform as he has well into his 40's, why would any of you believe that Jose Contreras is somehow going to drop off in the next couple of years??

 

Jose Contreras is probably already pitching into his 40s, so congratulations, he can indeed pitch into his 40s. That doesn't mean the Sox should invest $13 million in him, thus losing Buehrle and not being able to reach contract extensions with Iguchi and Crede, and perhaps others in the pen and on the bench. Great idea

 

2.  Contreras is worth the $13 million/year he apparently is asking for, and I would bet the Sox would basically agree to that figure if he agreed to a two-year and not a 3-year extension.  If the Sox can afford Contreras at $8 million, they can afford him at $13 million after he leads us to another WS crown in 2006.  Compared to AJ Burnett or Kevin Millwood, Contreras would be a bargain.

 

So what's that say about Javier Vazquez? What's it say about Brandon McCarthy? What's it say about Jon Garland? What's it say about Freddy Garcia?

 

There is one pitcher on the Sox worth $13 million to the Sox, and that is Mark Buehrle, for almost an unlistable amount of reasons, though some would be reaches.

 

3.  I do have my doubts about Brian Anderson, mostly because he showed ZERO plate discipline in September (no BBs and 13 Ks in 34 ABs), and didn't show that much discipline in AAA.  Anderson's AAA numbers aren't really any better than Joe Borchard's.  So let's just say that until he proves something, I'm a skeptic.  If he gives us Rowand-like defense, we may be able to allow him to develop offensively, but I hope we don't have to rely on him for more than about 250 ABs.

 

BAnd, 2005 - .295 16 57 .360/.469/.829, 115 K/44 BB in 492 PAs.

Borchard, 2003 - .272 20 59 .349/.498/.847 139 K/49 BB 487 PAs

 

They appear similar, however, there are 3 differences I view as key.

 

First, Anderson hit at a higher clip than Borchard did, thus proving more contact between bat and ball, thus suggesting atleast a somewhat shorter swing.

Secondly, Borchard struck out about 25 more times than Anderson did in 5 fewer plate appearances...against suggesting less contact from Borchard due to a longer swing.

Finally, from everything I've heard about Anderson, his defense should be good enough that it by itself will be worth the downgrade offensively from Rowand, little as it is, and the addition of Thome will only help that.

 

4.  The fact that KW has coveted Javier Vazquez for some time has no bearing on whether it would be a good move to trade him at the deadline this year for the right player(s).  If Contreras has signed an extension and Vazquez is still the weakest of our starting 5, then why wouldn't KW consider trading him if he needs to fill a major hole on our team?  I'm sure KW covets JV for his potential, but he may decide after a closer look that the potential is not there, or that Vazquez has more value in bringing us a player that will help us win a second WS than he would have out of the bullpen in the postseason (where he would go if he's not outpitching JC, MB, FG, or JG).  I'm not saying it is likely that such a trade will be made, only that it makes more sense than trading Vazquez (or Contreras) now. 

 

Contreras almost undoubtedly will not sign an extension, and I would be surprised as hell if he did, and it has not been agreed upon fully by every party in White Sox universe that Javier Vazquez is the weakest part of the starting 5...I for one have said over and over that I feel Vazquez is arguably 3rd best starter, assuming Contreras does not tank next year, yet you have apparently failed to acknowledge the fact. Almost every sign in the book indicates a strong rebound for Vazquez next year, yet you have failed to acknowledge this. KW has wanted this guy F-O-R-E-V-E-R, and while you have acknowledged this, I'm not real sure how much you are understanding it. If KW trades Vazquez after wanting him for so long and then finally getting him, I'm going to be very surprised. He would have to be getting atleast double the value of what he gave up for Vazquez back in return, and odds are very good the GM will ever give that up.

 

5.  Fair point about Abreu wanting a team to exercise his $18 million option to waive his no trade.  We'll see if it happens.  Since Abreu's never going to see that money anyway, it would be senseless to hold up a deal on those grounds, especially a deal that could send him from underachieving Philly to the WS Champion ChiSox and our Venezuelan manager.  Moreover, with Thome protecting him in 2004, Abreu posted an OPS in the .970s.  Last year with Thome hurt, he dropped almost .100 points.  I could see him waiving his no-trade to come to the Sox. 

 

I could also see it as a dumb move, guaranteeing that much money into 1 slot, thus not allowing any flexibility whatsoever if a hole were to arise, thus having to go with old veterans and young, mediocre talent fighting for spots on teams and struggling to hit .220 in June. No one wants that on their team, and KW sure as hell doesn't want it...thus he tries as hard as possible to have no holes in his lineup at all, and spreads the money out on a pretty fair balance as he sees...most of it going to starting pitching. If Contreras leaves and Garcia goes down for whatever reason...how friggin screwed are the Sox? You can't just retrade Abreu, because you are then putting a hole in your OF too, depending upon whether you were playing Abreu in CF or RF, because Dye is likely gone by that point.

 

The Sox were a mediocre team with that type of philosophy...don't you remember? Maggs, Caballo, Valentin? The rotation was garbage, and a lot of that had to do with too much money tied up in the offense, which is probably one of the most overrated parts of a baseball team. The more runs you can prevent scoring, the fewer runs you need to score...that is the brains behind KW's basic plan right now. Pitching and

defense.

 

It's a different point whether Philly would be willing to eat part of Abreu's $16 million 2007 deal.  For Vazquez straight up, probably not.  For another quality prospect like Gio Gonzalez (do we have one?) thrown in, I could see it happening.

 

Great idea, let's destroy our farm system a little more than we already have this offseason, perfect. Allow no depth whatsoever for the future.