The Count possibly to the Astros?

[YASNY]

The question then becomes, if Willy has the skills set and upside that he seems to have, why would Houston give him up?

 

To get Contreras.

[beck72]

To get Contreras.

I meant to replace him with who. But I found it. Probably Luke Scott to go in the OF. Hunter Pence is also a yr or two away

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/Stats...p.php?id=432928

[Felix]

As far as looking at the warts on Cindy crawford's face [the poor splits on the road, avg. vs one handed pitchers, etc] --you can always find faults with a guy. Taveras does have skills. More than I thought after looking at him a little closer

So, you would want a guy who hits .330/.350/.355 (not sure if those are exactly right, but they are close) while hitting at one of the biggest hitters parks in the league, but then hits .250/.270/.275 (again, they might be a bit off) everywhere else? Since USCF is not as much of a hitting park as Minute Maid Park (IIRC), his numbers are bound to drop from how they were last year at home, which will make his overall numbers look even worse than they already are.

 

Just like in the Pierre to Sox discussion awhile ago, we don't need him. He's Scott Podsednik v2, except worse. We already have our fast guy who doesn't hit for much power. We don't need another.

 

And as posted before, here are the ZiPS projections:

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Anderson     cf  .263  .323  .425 130 464  68 122 21  3 16  57  38 113  6  3 
Taveras      cf  .293  .334  .342 148 552  83 162 12  3  3  41  28  96 37 20

Assuming these are close (I know, they might not be), I guess the question is, are you willing to give up the .10 in OBP for a ton of extra slugging? Personally, I couldn't care less what your role is on a team, but if you have almost 600 at-bats, and only 20 extra base hits (while being a speedy guy, so having an advantage of getting around the bases quickly), you aren't a good player.

[beck72]

So, you would want a guy who hits .330/.350/.355 (not sure if those are exactly right, but they are close) while hitting at one of the biggest hitters parks in the league, but then hits .250/.270/.275 (again, they might be a bit off) everywhere else?  Since USCF is not as much of a hitting park as Minute Maid Park (IIRC), his numbers are bound to drop from how they were last year at home, which will make his overall numbers look even worse than they already are.

 

Just like in the Pierre to Sox discussion awhile ago, we don't need him.  He's Scott Podsednik v2, except worse.  We already have our fast guy who doesn't hit for much power.  We don't need another.

 

And as posted before, here are the ZiPS projections:

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Anderson     cf  .263  .323  .425 130 464  68 122 21  3 16  57  38 113  6  3 
Taveras      cf  .293  .334  .342 148 552  83 162 12  3  3  41  28  96 37 20

Assuming these are close (I know, they might not be), I guess the question is, are you willing to give up the .10 in OBP for a ton of extra slugging?  Personally, I couldn't care less what your role is on a team, but if you have almost 600 at-bats, and only 20 extra base hits (while being a speedy guy, so having an advantage of getting around the bases quickly), you aren't a good player.

I just think Taveras has more skills and upside than people give him credit for. He'd be a decent pick up along with another very good pitcher for a one yr rental in Jose. His skills seems to match up better with what Ozzie wants, judging by the Young and Rowand trades, and Ozzie's words

[Felix]

But even if you look at minor league numbers, Brian Anderson had a higher carrer minor league average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, and looking at Taveras' minor league numbers, he's never been a guy who gets XBH.

[beck72]

I asked the question as well, what would happen if either Anderson, Pods or Dye got hurt? Would the sox and us fans want to see Joe B as an everyday player? Right now that would be the plan.

 

Getting Taveras would keep Anderson as the first guy called up to take one of those guys places. He'd likely start in AAA, with Joe B the 4th OFer

[beck72]

But even if you look at minor league numbers, Brian Anderson had a higher carrer minor league average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, and looking at Taveras' minor league numbers, he's never been a guy who gets XBH.

 

Will Anderson hit for the .291 that Taveras did his rookie yr, as well as give the sox the skills needed in a #2 type/ leadoff hitter [bunting, SB, infield hits, etc] that Taveras will likely improve upon? No.

 

And Taveras had a higher OBP than BA did in the minors. Esp the last 3 full yrs. And he skipped AAA. He likely would have improved his ML numbers if he was in AAA for 2005.

[shawnhillegas]

what if? what it? what if? why is everyone so paranoid? we need 7 starters and 5 good outfielders just in case of an injury now? what if jenks needs tommy john surgery? we better trade for danny baez just in case.

[Felix]

I asked the question as well, what would happen if either Anderson, Pods or Dye got hurt? Would the sox and us fans want to see Joe B as an everyday player? Right now that would be the plan.

 

Getting Taveras would keep Anderson as the first guy called up to take one of those guys places. He'd likely start in AAA, with Joe B the 4th OFer

Why keep Anderson in AAA when he's better than Taveras is?

 

Will Anderson hit for the .291 that Taveras did his rookie yr, as well as give the sox the skills needed in a #2 type/ leadoff hitter [bunting, SB, infield hits, etc] that Taveras will likely improve upon? No.

Who cares about .291? A player could hit .100 with a .400 OBP, and I'd take him in a second over a play who hits .300 with a .320 OBP. And yes, I believe that Anderson can match, or improve on, Taveras' .325 OBP last year.

 

And Taveras had a higher OBP than BA did in the minors. Esp the last 3 full yrs. And he skipped AAA. He likely would have improved his ML numbers if he was in AAA for 2005.

Well, I'm looking at this for Taveras, and this for Anderson, and it looks like Anderson's career minor league OBP is .385, and Taveras' is .372. I guess it doesn't include Anderson's 2005 at AAA, where he hit .295/.360/.469 with 24 doubles, 3 triples, and 16 homeruns in 448 at-bats.

Edited January 1, 2006 by Felix

[CWSGuy406]

Will Anderson hit for the .291 that Taveras did his rookie yr, as well as give the sox the skills needed in a #2 type/ leadoff hitter [bunting, SB, infield hits, etc] that Taveras will likely improve upon? No.

 

I think Kenny (the important one in all thise) realizes that these skills that you mention aren't nearly as valuable as what Anderson can bring to the table -- power and great defense.

 

People complained about Rowand not being a useful player last year. He put up 19 WS to Taveras' 13.

 

So, let's see. We'd lose out on defense, offense, but hey -- we'd get some more speed and bunting! Yeah!

 

Dick Allen was right in saying that these players are pretty freely available. Hell, to an extent, the Sox just non-tendered the same type of player in Willie Harris...

Edited January 1, 2006 by CWSGuy406

[Felix]

Dick Allen was right in saying that these players are pretty freely available.  Hell, to an extent, the Sox just non-tendered the same type of player in Willie Harris...

Thats a great point about Harris, I hadn't even though of it. And now that I look at it, they are pretty damn similar..

[fathom]

Thats a great point about Harris, I hadn't even though of it.  And now that I look at it, they are pretty damn similar..

 

Taveras is in a different world when you're talking about speed than Willie is. Also, Taveras is already very good at using his speed to get infield hits. That's something that Harris never could master, as he was a 4-3 machine. However, I don't want anything close to this trade taking place. I would be very disappointed that after we gave up such talent for someone like Vazquez, that we would only get back Taveras and an average prospect in return.

[3E8]

And Taveras had a higher OBP than BA did in the minors.

Thank you Texas League.

[CWSGuy406]

Taveras is in a different world when you're talking about speed than Willie is.

 

Well, if that's true, it sure isn't showing up in the stolen base department. Harris has had an 80% success rate, while Taveras' has been only 76%. The two players are very similar, but I'd probably take Harris, seeing as he can play CF and 2B.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Dick Allen was right in saying that these players are pretty freely available.  Hell, to an extent, the Sox just non-tendered the same type of player in Willie Harris...

I think when you compare two guys, you have to keep in mind age and experience. I think it's fair to say that Taveras is not yet as good as he will be, and Harris is never gonna be a whole lot better than he is right now.

[CWSGuy406]

I think when you compare two guys, you have to keep in mind age and experience. I think it's fair to say that Taveras is not yet as good as he will be, and Harris is never gonna be a whole lot better than he is right now.

 

Meh. I don't think Taveras' peak is much higher than what he put up last year. I'm thinking, at best, .300/.340/.360, which is alright, but not something I'd consider giving up Jose Contreras for.

[SSH2005]

Well, if that's true, it sure isn't showing up in the stolen base department.  Harris has had an 80% success rate, while Taveras' has been only 76%.  The two players are very similar, but I'd probably take Harris, seeing as he can play CF and 2B.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You can't just assume that Willie's SB success rate would have stayed at 80% if he had tried to steal as much as Taveras. It more than likely wouldn't have.

[beck72]

I think Kenny (the important one in all thise) realizes that these skills that you mention aren't nearly as valuable as what Anderson can bring to the table -- power and great defense.

 

People complained about Rowand not being a useful player last year.  He put up 19 WS to Taveras' 13. 

 

So, let's see.  We'd lose out on defense, offense, but hey -- we'd get some more speed and bunting!  Yeah!

 

Dick Allen was right in saying that these players are pretty freely available.  Hell, to an extent, the Sox just non-tendered the same type of player in Willie Harris...

 

We'll all see what KW realizes by spring training.

 

As far as "losing out" on offense and defense, are you saying BA will do better than Taveras in both categories? BA may eventually better Taveras. But certainly not in 2006 --probably in SLG. Defensively, all I've heard are positives about Taveras. So I'm not sure what your point is. And no one is saying that BA is being given up on.

 

My point is Taveras might not be a bad pickup, along with a pitcher or two for Jose.

[Chisoxfn]

But even if you look at minor league numbers, Brian Anderson had a higher carrer minor league average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, and looking at Taveras' minor league numbers, he's never been a guy who gets XBH.

Who gives a s***. If your at the top of the order thats not your job. If the Sox feel they need a #2 hitter to help get them to repeat and in a few years that 2 hitter (ie Taveras) could replace Pods at the top of the order than I think this move makes sense. I don't know what Kenny's thinking but I could see him thinking along these lines.

 

I'm sick of a bunch of people throwing out a few stats to make there case. I got news for people, you can throw stats out for whatever the f*** case you want. There is no definitive stats unless your talking about a superstar.

 

I remember everyone who b****ed about how Paulie couldn't hit on the road. Sometimes you have odd splits certain years while other times you'll have the exact opposite splits.

 

Didn't Crede or someone hit way better on the road than at home? How could that happen since everyon thinks that just because your hitting at the Cell means you'll be far better at home as opposed to the road.

[beck72]

what if?  what it?  what if?  why is everyone so paranoid?  we need 7 starters and 5 good outfielders just in case of an injury now?  what if jenks needs tommy john surgery?  we better trade for danny baez just in case.

 

Do you like the possibility of having Joe Borchard take over on an everyday basis? That's all I'm saying if BA is given the everyday job, and someone goes down from one of three spots. Pods went down last yr, Dye has gotten hurt over his career, and expecting a rookie to play 162 games at a high level may be a bit much w/o a clear backup plan.

[beck72]

Why keep Anderson in AAA when he's better than Taveras is?

 

While Anderson may be better than Taveras at some point in his career, BA probably won't be better than Taveras in 2006, in avg or OBP. SLG % maybe. But the sox have a lot of sluggers.

[Chisoxfn]

Well, if that's true, it sure isn't showing up in the stolen base department.  Harris has had an 80% success rate, while Taveras' has been only 76%.  The two players are very similar, but I'd probably take Harris, seeing as he can play CF and 2B.

Ya and throw out the fact that Taveras was the starting CFer on a world series team. The guy hit .290 at the major league level as a rookie (who skipped AAA). Thats pretty darn impressive and I don't get why people don't think he can build on it.

 

This guy will likely get better and he should improve his eye as he gets better aclimated to major league pitching.

 

I'm not saying this is a great trade but I laugh at everyone who is calling Taveras crap. The guy is a better defensive player than you give him credit for he and brings a lot of things to the table. I also have to keep reiterating that a lot of you people are dreaming in what you expect Brian Anderson to do in his first full season.

 

I don't know what Brian Anderson you were watching, but he's got a long ways to go from the guy I saw at the major league level for a very small sample of at bats (but he looked freaking TERRIBLE during those Ab's). He basically had one game.

 

The tools are there, but don't expect Anderson to put up the numbers a lot of you expect. I wouldn't expect much more than a .250 avg, 100 plus strikeouts, not too many walks and 15 Hr's. He will not have a .330 OBP, maybe I'll be wrong, but if he's going to do any better than that he'll have had to make a pretty big stride from the level of play he was playing this past year.

[Chisoxfn]

Do you like the possibility of having Joe Borchard take over on an everyday basis? That's all I'm saying if BA is given the everyday job, and someone goes down from one of three spots. Pods went down last yr, Dye has gotten hurt over his career, and expecting a rookie to play 162 games at a high level may be a bit much w/o a clear backup plan.

Pods would slide to center and you'd see Makoviak be the everyday outfielder along with Jermaine Dye. Its not pretty, but if someone went down for an extended period of time (ie the season) than I'm sure Kenny would go out and find himself a capable replacement via the trade front.

[Chisoxfn]

Its called depth. DEPTH. Right now, the Sox dont have much of it a AAA. Having 6 guys who are capable of winning at the major league level is a must IMO.

 

As for the Taveras thing, I really expect big things out of Anderson, and obviously brining in Taveras would mean at least 1 more year of Anderson on the bench, which im not sure he needs.

 

However, like Jas said, Taveras could replace Pods at the top of the order in a few years could work out.

 

Count is a tremendous talent. If we trade him, I dont care who we get, there will be a big part of me upset to see him gone. However, trades dont always have to be equal in talent, ie-Carlos for Podsednik.

 

If we could get Taveras, a good bullpen arm like Qualls, and a pitching prospect ready to make the jump into the big leagues by mid season or next year, I would think about it.

I'm not a huge fan of the deal, but if they get a really good pitching prospect, a starting centerfielder who should grow, and a good reliever than I can see the move helping the club.

 

However, I'm not much of a fan of giving up Contreras. I think he turned the corner last year and if he pitches like he did over the 2nd half of the season for all of next year (or at least a major portion) than I think he'll be the runaway Cy Young award winner. The guy was freaking nasty and best of all he was consistently nasty (something everyone was waiting for from him).

 

To me he's shown no signs of slowing down so I have no problem going with him and than hoping we can sign him during the season or next year for another 2-3 years. If we can't we'll have time to negotiate him before we release him (or so I assume or however his contract works out) or we can always do something. Plus if he walks away, so what, if he comes close to being the Cy Young guy that I think he'll be next year than he'll benefit this club enough and Brandon can slide into the rotation.

 

If he ends up signing long term, than the Sox can move one of there other starters (probably Freddy or Vazquez) and finally move Bmac into the rotation. Either way the Sox are in the drivers seat and I wouldn't make a trade just for the sake of making a trade.

 

Aside from the bullpen (which I think could use another good arm) I think this team is ready to go out and defend their title.

[CWSGuy406]

We'll all see what KW realizes by spring training.

 

As far as "losing out" on offense and defense, are you saying BA will do better than Taveras in both categories? BA may eventually better Taveras. But certainly not in 2006 --probably in SLG. Defensively, all I've heard are positives about Taveras. So I'm not sure what your point is. And no one is saying that BA is being given up on.

 

I think Anderson will post a line somewhere around .250/.315/.420 next year, which isn't great, but he's not going to be relied upon as far as offense. I assume that his defense is very good, which very well could be wrong on my part. But, I'm giving KW the benefit of the doubt -- afterall, he was comfortable enough with Anderson to trade one of the best defensive CFers in all of baseball and (so far) give the reigns to BA.

 

 

Who gives a s***. If your at the top of the order thats not your job. If the Sox feel they need a #2 hitter to help get them to repeat and in a few years that 2 hitter (ie Taveras) could replace Pods at the top of the order than I think this move makes sense. I don't know what Kenny's thinking but I could see him thinking along these lines.

 

 

.....

 

(this is from beck) : Do you like the possibility of having Joe Borchard take over on an everyday basis? That's all I'm saying if BA is given the everyday job, and someone goes down from one of three spots. Pods went down last yr, Dye has gotten hurt over his career, and expecting a rookie to play 162 games at a high level may be a bit much w/o a clear backup plan.

 

In both cases, I say, isn't that what Jerry Owens is for? I know everyone is saying that Owens needs some time in AAA, which I agree with, but I don't the difference in who he'd be facing in AA/AAA is all that great. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the jump from A-ball to AA seems much tougher than the AA to AAA jump. I'm sure that, as a collective group, Mackowiak/Borchard/Owens could hold down the fort if one of SP/BA/JD went down.

 

Beck, mainly, I don't think your proposed deal of Taveras/Qualls/SP prospect is "overwhelming" (the exact word from KW, IIRC) by any means. I don't see a matchup with Houston. None of their prospects are that great, or so it seems. I keep going back to the Dodgers, but they seem to be a great matchup. Something like Guzman (Crede's replacement in a year or two) + Elbert (rebuild our SP depth) + Brazoban or Broxton (a player who could help this year, albeit in a minimal role in the bullpen) would look to be a good start.

Edited January 1, 2006 by CWSGuy406