The Count possibly to the Astros?

[Chisoxfn]

I think Anderson will post a line somewhere around .250/.315/.420 next year, which isn't great, but he's not going to be relied upon as far as offense.  I assume that his defense is very good, which very well could be wrong on my part.  But, I'm giving KW the benefit of the doubt -- afterall, he was comfortable enough with Anderson to trade one of the best defensive CFers in all of baseball and (so far) give the reigns to BA.

In both cases, I say, isn't that what Jerry Owens is for?  I know everyone is saying that Owens needs some time in AAA, which I agree with, but I don't the difference in who he'd be facing in AA/AAA is all that great.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but the jump from A-ball to AA seems much tougher than the AA to AAA jump.  I'm sure that, as a collective group, Mackowiak/Borchard/Owens could hold down the fort if one of SP/BA/JD went down.

 

Beck, mainly, I don't think your proposed deal of Taveras/Qualls/SP prospect is "overwhelming" (the exact word from KW, IIRC) by any means.  I don't see a matchup with Houston.  None of their prospects are that great, or so it seems.  I keep going back to the Dodgers, but they seem to be a great matchup.  Something like Guzman (Crede's replacement in a year or two) + Elbert (rebuild our SP depth) + Brazoban or Broxton (a player who could help this year, albeit in a minimal role in the bullpen) would seem to be a good start.

Pods and Owens can't be in the same outfield cause both suck defensively. However, I'm not a proponent of making a trade. Find us a reliever and call it quits.

[Felix]

I'm sick of a bunch of people throwing out a few stats to make there case.  I got news for people, you can throw stats out for whatever the f*** case you want.  There is no definitive stats unless your talking about a superstar.

Then how do you suggest evaluating players during the offseason? There isn't magic crystal ball which shows how good a player will be, but stats give a good indication of how players will do in future years. Yea, its not a sure thing, but they give an indication, and without them, one wouldn't know the difference between Joe Borchard and every other outfielder unless they watch every single game for every single team in every single level of play, whether it be A, AA or AAA.

[supernuke]

I'm sick of a bunch of people throwing out a few stats to make there case.  I got news for people, you can throw stats out for whatever the f*** case you want.  There is no definitive stats unless your talking about a superstar.

 

Thank you. It really annoys me when people spout off some stats as gospel. While stats can be a useful tool, when it comes to baseball they will never show the whole picture. Stats are numbers and with proper manipulation you can make them say just about anything you want.

 

Like Yogi once said 90% of baseball is half mental. This mental aspect can not be mesured. it's easy to say that team A will score 1.274365457549 runs with a man on first and no outs but the same team will only score 0.423151272338494 runs with no one on and one out, and there for a caught stealing is crippling to a team. They can't however mesure what having that guy with the 70% success rate( which according to the stats guys is quite bad) who steals 50 bases a year on first does to the opposing players mentally.

 

Stats can not mesure the mental asspects of the game or the many intangibles that are part of the game. Until they can they will always be flawed. As I said earlier they can still be a very useful tool if they are combined with a keen observation of the game and players themselves.

 

Maybe all the teams should go out and hire some people to go and watch other teams players and games and the minors players and games and provide some insight that could be used along with all these stats to make all these decisions.

[Chisoxfn]

Then how do you suggest evaluating players during the offseason?  There isn't magic crystal ball which shows how good a player will be, but stats give a good indication of how players will do in future years.  Yea, its not a sure thing, but they give an indication, and without them, one wouldn't know the difference between Joe Borchard and every other outfielder unless they watch every single game for every single team in every single level of play, whether it be A, AA or AAA.

Its called mixing in stats and tools. Not just relying solely on how a guy hit or what his obp is or his ops. You can't tell me how great a player is (unless they are a .300 hitter with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI based solely on stats. You need to at least watch a guy, know how he plays defense, know the type of speed he has, how old is he, is he going to improve, what type of flaws does he have in his game, can we fix these flaws. There are so many things you have to take into account.

 

For example, people throw out Taveras numbers and say he's a bum. You don't hit .290 or so on accident. The guy obviously has some ability to hit for an average and when it comes to evaluating a top of the order guy its nice if they can get on base. Obviously his OBP wasn't too impressive but in the minors he showed pretty good patience and most young players thrown into a leadoff role struggle with this (but should improve over time and historically his stats show that). You also know he's a guy with pretty quick hands and who uses all fields. Factor that in with him having a pretty solid arm for a CFer and plus range (although I can't tell you how good he is at getting jumps, I haven't seen enough Astros game) and I can see a guy who could develop into a .300 hitter with a .360 OBP or so that can steal 40+ bases at a high percentage all while playing good defense. That doesn't sound too bad to me, especially when you factor in that he'll be cheap and under the Sox control for a long time.

 

Will all that happen, I don't know, but you saying how he doesn't hit doubls makes him crappy or that he doesn't have extra base hits, well that doesn't matter. The Sox wouldn't be looking at him as a run producer. Now you can talk about his low OBP and I understand that, but not a ton of Xtra base hits isn't a major reason not to get him since he's going to be here (if the Sox got him) because Ozzie wants more speed and a slap hitter in the 2 hole (not xtra base hits, those are just a plus).

 

Pods wasn't getting many xtra base hits, but he was a very effective leadoff hitter (although he did really struggle in the 2nd half at stealing bases) but as a whole he did a very good job (had a nice OBP and came up with some hits (he stunk at driving in runners, but that wasn't his job, he was a table setter, so that stat isn't important).

[Felix]

For example, people throw out Taveras numbers and say he's a bum.  You don't hit .290 or so on accident.  The guy obviously has some ability to hit for an average and when it comes to evaluating a top of the order guy its nice if they can get on base.

You're right about him hitting .290, it wasn't an accident, it was due to being in a huge hitters park. And "its nice if they can get on base"? What good is a top of the order guy is he doesn't get on base? Getting on base is mandatory unless you are building a losing team..

 

Obviously his OBP wasn't too impressive but in the minors he showed pretty good patience and most young players thrown into a leadoff role struggle with this (but should improve over time and historically his stats show that).

And how do you know that? Stats, or did you watch him in the minors? If stats, you're just throwing them out to make your case!

 

Factor that in with him having a pretty solid arm for a CFer and plus range (although I can't tell you how good he is at getting jumps, I haven't seen enough Astros game)

Everything I've read about him is that he's an above average fielder, and stats solidify that for me. Last year, his FRAR (fielding runs above replacement) was 31, which was better than Rowands.

 

Will all that happen, I don't know, but you saying how he doesn't hit doubls makes him crappy or that he doesn't have extra base hits, well that doesn't matter.

My point about that was that he doesn't get around the bases. You can't have a guy get a single, then steal second every single time. Sometimes its nice for him to get a double, or triple. Taveras is a fast guy, and he plays in one of the biggest hitters parks in the league. Despite this, he only had 20 extra base hits. You would think a fast guy hitting in a hitters park would get more than 3 triples, or 14 doubles, but Taveras didn't. The majority of his hits were singles, and you then have to depend on the rest of your team to drive you in from first. Driving someone in from second or third is much easier, and leads to more runs.

[jackie hayes]

You can't just assume that Willie's SB success rate would have stayed at 80% if he had tried to steal as much as Taveras.  It more than likely wouldn't have.

Last year, they each succeeded about 75% of the time, and it looks like Harris was more likely than Taveras to steal (given that he had many fewer plate appearances).

 

Why do the stats bashers seem to love citing Taveras's batting average so much? That's no less statty than obp.

 

I don't think the 'tools' analysis of Taveras says anything different than the stats analysis. Fast guy, decent fielder, probably more patient than we saw this year, zilch for power. And then it comes down to those who think we need dual Podsedniks against those who think one is enough...maybe more than enough. The eternal sb debate. Hasn't this debate been done to death?

[SSH2005]

Taveras has a high AVG because he hits a lot of groundball singles and is also a great bunter. He beats out a lot of routine outs for the average player because of his speed. He actually tries to slap the ball into his ground so he can use his speed to beat it out. He doesn't hit many extra base hits at all. It's no surprise why he put up a high AVG and probably will continue to do so at least until he loses his speed with age.

[jackie hayes]

Okay, and players with good obp usually keep their plate patience and keep drawing walks. I still don't see any reason to think ba is a 'good stat', while obp is a 'bad stat'.

[SSH2005]

Okay, and players with good obp usually keep their plate patience and keep drawing walks.  I still don't see any reason to think ba is a 'good stat', while obp is a 'bad stat'.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Because OBP is a far more important stat than AVG, especially when it comes to a leadoff-type hitter like Taveras. His AVG is good while his OBP stinks. I'd rather have Taveras if he had a .270 AVG and a .360 OBP.

[Felix]

Okay, and players with good obp usually keep their plate patience and keep drawing walks.  I still don't see any reason to think ba is a 'good stat', while obp is a 'bad stat'.

Batting average isn't a good stat. On-base percentage is so much more important, yet people don't really realize this. Who cares if you hit .300 with an OBP of .320 or if you hit .100 with an OBP of .320? You are getting on base the same amount, which is all that really matters.

[jackie hayes]

Because OBP is a far more important stat than AVG, especially when it comes to a leadoff-type hitter like Taveras.  His AVG is good while his OBP stinks.  I'd rather have Taveras if he had a .270 AVG and a .360 OBP.

Okay, so basically we're not disagreeing at all?

 

(Except that I expect his obp will get better, based on his minor league stats. )

[SSH2005]

Batting average isn't a good stat.  On-base percentage is so much more important, yet people don't really realize this.  Who cares if you hit .300 with an OBP of .320 or if you hit .100 with an OBP of .320?  You are getting on base the same amount, which is all that really matters.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, AVG matters for knocking in runs. But for a leadoff hitter like Taveras, I would rather have a lower AVG and a higher OBP.

[SSH2005]

Okay, so basically we're not disagreeing at all?

 

(Except that I expect his obp will get better, based on his minor league stats.  )

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would expect it to increase as well but he is going to have to get a lot more patient at the plate. 25 walks and 103 strikeouts is pretty bad. But it was only his rookie year afterall.

[WCSox]

I'm sick of a bunch of people throwing out a few stats to make there case.  I got news for people, you can throw stats out for whatever the f*** case you want.  There is no definitive stats unless your talking about a superstar.

 

You are correct. If stats meant everything, Billy Beane would've won multiple WS titles by now. Beane is a stathead, who relies more on crunching numbers through spreadsheets than listening to scouts who actually watch the players play. By his logic, Derek Jeter is overpaid by at least $10 million/year because his OPS isn't as high as Tejada's or A-Rod's. Nevermind the fact that that Jeter is a stellar defensive SS and one of the best clutch players in MLB. In fact, Jeter made an incredible throw in the playoffs that kept Beane's team out of the WS four years ago.

 

I'm so sick and tired of hearing players judged on OPS alone. Look at the change that KW made in LF last year:

 

Carlos Lee - career OPS: .825

Scott Podsednik - career OPS: .730

 

Now, why would Kenny deal away a consistent, .300/30 HR hitter like Lee for a guy who didn't hit a single regular-season HR in '05? Becuase Pods was almost a lock to steal 50-70 bases. Pods might not drive in a lot of runs, but he certainly helps MANUFACTURE runs.

 

While Willie Taveras' OPS isn't terribly impressive, his base-stealing and defensive skills certainly are. And, IIRC, defense and manufacturing runs are two of the three cornerstones of "Ozzieball." If he could be acquired for a relatively low price, he'd be worth it. He fits right in with Ozzie's style of play. Platooning Taveras and Anderson with, say, at 2:1 ratio of playing time would (1) give the Sox another threat on the bases and greater ability to manufacture runs and (2) take some pressure off of Anderson. If Anderson pans out as planned, Taveras could be shipped off somewhere at little cost. If Anderson turns out to be a bust, the Sox have another option in Taveras.

Edited January 2, 2006 by WCSox

[SSH2005]

If Taveras truly has .360+ OBP potential in him, I wouldn't mind having him regardless of his lack of extra base hits. His defense and arm in center field adds a lot to his value. I just wouldn't want the current .325 OBP Taveras.

[GoodAsGould]

If Taveras truly has .360+ OBP potential in him, I wouldn't mind having him regardless of his lack of extra base hits.  His defense and arm in center field adds a lot to his value.  I just wouldn't want the current .325 OBP Taveras.

 

What dont you people understand that when you skip AAA completely and its your rookie season in the majors you arent going to be amazing. The fact that he had the season he did just shows how talented Taveras since most rookies who are the type of players Taveras is could only dream to do that good their rookie year.

[WCSox]

If Taveras truly has .360+ OBP potential in him, I wouldn't mind having him regardless of his lack of extra base hits.  His defense and arm in center field adds a lot to his value.  I just wouldn't want the current .325 OBP Taveras.

 

And you might end up with a .290 OBP Brian Anderson for all you know. It's just nice to have another option when you have an unknown. At the very least, Taveras could hit 9th (where Anderson would be hitting).

 

It's almost a moot point talking about this, as Houston doesn't have much incentive to trade him anyway.

[Felix]

And you might end up with a .290 OBP Brian Anderson for all you know.  It's just nice to have another option when you have an unknown.  At the very least, Taveras could hit 9th (where Anderson would be hitting).

Sort of like the one Taveras put up outside of Minute Maid Park?

[WCSox]

What dont you people understand that when you skip AAA completely and its your rookie season in the majors you arent going to be amazing.

 

Most players on the fast-track to the majors don't even go to AAA. Triple A is where most of the career minor-leaguers go.

[SSH2005]

What dont you people understand that when you skip AAA completely and its your rookie season in the majors you arent going to be amazing.  The fact that he had the season he did just shows how talented Taveras since most rookies who are the type of players Taveras is could only dream to do that good their rookie year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I understand that but can you promise me Taveras will put up a .360+ OBP in the future? Nope. He will have to greatly improve on his plate patience.

[WCSox]

Sort of like the one Taveras put up outside of Minute Maid Park?

 

Wow, Taveras must be a hell of a hitter at home then. How about this: Taveras plays the home games and Anderson plays the road games.

[Dick Allen]

If Taveras is such a great player, why was he benched for 2 games in the NLCS?

[SSH2005]

And you might end up with a .290 OBP Brian Anderson for all you know.  It's just nice to have another option when you have an unknown.  At the very least, Taveras could hit 9th (where Anderson would be hitting).

 

It's almost a moot point talking about this, as Houston doesn't have much incentive to trade him anyway.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You keep saying that Taveras could hit 9th where Anderson would be hitting. But because of his speed and bunting ability he would bat second in Ozzie's world, regardless of what you say. And his low OBP would hurt there.

Edited January 2, 2006 by SSH2005

[jackie hayes]

I don't think Taveras is a bad player, but all this 'oh you evil stats people' is bs. Look at the stats or don't, I don't care, Taveras has zero power. I don't want 2 places in the lineup (in the outfield, no less) occupied by players with flyswatter bats. I agree that obp is more important than power at the top of the lineup, but I think it's absurd to jettison pop entirely.

[Dick Allen]

I don't think Taveras is a bad player, but all this 'oh you evil stats people' is bs.  Look at the stats or don't, I don't care, Taveras has zero power.  I don't want 2 places in the lineup (in the outfield, no less) occupied by players with flyswatter bats.  I agree that obp is more important than power at the top of the lineup, but I think it's absurd to jettison pop entirely.

The other problem is if he were to bat ninth or second, he would be back to back with Pods. That's 2 guys back to back that are going to have a tough time driving in a run from third with less than two out. And before I get jumped on by people saying it wouldn't be his job to drive in runs, Iguchi drove home a lot from the 2 hole. Uribe and Crede drove home their fair share from the 9 hole. Having 2 guys in your line-up in the AL who would be hard pressed to drive home 35 runs a piece is not good.

Edited January 2, 2006 by Dick Allen