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Abreu rumor


BigSqwert

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QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 02:23 PM)
1. Abreu improves the team.

2. An improved team has a better chance to repeat as champions.

3. A championship teams draw more fans.

 

1+2+3= MORE MONEY!

Several points in reply.

 

1. There are 2 ways we could make more money by winning games; selling tickets at higher prices or by filling more empty seats. We already have set ticket prices for this year, so let's throw that out the window.

2. Therefore, the only place we have to increase revenue this year is to sell more tickets.

3. We have already sold a significant number of season tickets...to a base of over 20,000. We will have many games which are almost certain to sell out...Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, etc.

4. The games which are during the summer will also sell well...simply because it's summer, we've already won a title, and we should at the very worst have a decent team next year..

5. In other threads, for a variety of reasons...we have estimated that the stadium will probably average somewhere between 35,000-38,000 fans per game this year.

6. This leaves only a limited amount of slack in the form of available tickets. There will be no tickets for games people actually really want to see, and very few for summer games, even those which people don't really care about, like games against K.C. or Tampa or someone like that.

7. Therefore...the only way we can grow the revenue any farther is to find a way to sell more tickets to games with teams that we already should be beating during times when the weather is poor and kids are back in school, since those are the games which will be the most readily available.

 

The question I put to you is this...please prove to me not only that winning increases revenue...but that Bobby Abreu will sell more tickets to games that we should win anyway...and that he will be able to sell roughly 250,000+ more tickets overall, given how many games are already sold out (assuming each fan in the seats spends an average of over $40 on a game, including parking, food, and the cheap, available seating for those games which hasn't been grabbed by season ticket purchasers)

Edited by Balta1701
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QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 04:30 PM)
Then by your "logic", since the odds of us repeating are slim, we should be dumping all of our big money players, and go for as much profit as possible?!

When did I say that I was all for profit? I said our budget was already tapped. You determined that you couldnt make any other argument, and tried to turn it into profitability, not me. Now that argument didnt hold weight, so now you are trying to make me stand behind a statement of running the team as profitable as possible. Fact is, I never made that statement. I said do not run the team at a loss. Putting words into my mouth isnt a good way to state your position.

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QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 05:30 PM)
Then by your "logic", since the odds of us repeating are slim, we should be dumping all of our big money players, and go for as much profit as possible?!

 

Why does Abreu put the Sox so much farther ahead of the curve that he is worth the kind of over-investment it would take to bring him to the organization? Not to even mention that acquiring him would necessitate losing one of the starters, and hoping that the rest of them are ok health-wise. Its such an outrageous and ridiculous gamble not only for next year, but years down the line. I would say the Sox are better positioned now to repeat without adding Abreu because of the depth in pitching.

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QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 04:34 PM)
You refrain from personal attacks, and I will do the same! :cheers

I did that where? Dont confuse me dismantling your arguments with attacking you personally.

Edited by RockRaines
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When did I say that I was all for profit?  I said our budget was already tapped.  You determined that you couldnt make any other argument, and tried to turn it into profitability, not me.  Now that argument didnt hold weight, so now you are trying to make me stand behind a statement of running the team as profitable as possible.  Fact is, I never made that statement.  I said do not run the team at a loss. Putting words into my mouth isnt a good way to state your position.

And my point was, I don't think the Sox would be operating at a loss if they took on Abreu's salary.

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QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 04:37 PM)
And my point was, I don't think the Sox would be operating at a loss if they took on Abreu's salary.

Considering the General Manager and the Chairman of the board already said we were extended beyond our budget, I would re-evaluate my opinion if I were you.

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1. There are 2 ways we could make more money by winning games; selling tickets at higher prices or by filling more empty seats. We already have set ticket prices for this year, so let's throw that out the window.

2. Therefore, the only place we have to increase revenue this year is to sell more tickets.

 

There are other sources of revenue than just tickets.

 

Its practically impossible to predict how the acquisition of 1 player will increase the revenue of a team.

 

On the other hand there is a business term called "goodwill", and some times that can be worth more than anything.

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QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 10:38 PM)
You are intelligent enough not to believe everything you hear, aren't you?

 

 

QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 04:42 PM)
I stand by what I said about my intelligence. I am an attorney. (My I.Q. is in the high 130s.) I have brokered multi-million dollar deals.

 

Most of all, I am intelligent enough to know that there is NO way Jerry and his co-investors have only split even over the years. That is preposterous.

 

 

Absolutely.

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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 04:46 PM)
so soon we forget that our payroll in 2003 was around 58 million.  Now 100 million isnt enough.

 

I want him to provide his best guestimate on what he believes the "real" budget celing to be. Is it 110 mil, a 120 mil.

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QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 04:44 PM)
You are intelligent enough not to believe everything you hear, aren't you?

I'm intelligent enough to know what to believe. And according to the history of the team's finances, the payroll has increased based on the revenue stream. His statements make a whole lot of sense based on his tendencies. But of course, you do know more than he does.

Edited by RockRaines
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Damn do you guys like throwing down. Now for some actual numbers...

 

2005 final payroll ~ $75 million

 

2004 attendance- 1,930,537

2005 attendance (excluding playoffs)- 2,342,834

 

2004 avg ticket price- $22.71

FCI (cost for a family of 4 to go to the game done by Team Marketing)- $171.35

 

2005 avg ticket price- $25.89 (up 14%)

FCI- $188.07 (up 9.8%)

 

2004 att/ 4 (family)= 482,634.25 x 2004 FCI= 82,699,378.7375

2005 att/ 4= 585,708.5 x 2005 FCI= 110,154,197.595

 

therefore $75 mill/ 82,699... should approximately equal x/ 110,154... where x= 2006 salary

 

solve for x, x= $99,898,753.12

 

Again, this does not include the postseason and the ridiculous hike in merchandise sales. Gentlemen, some of you may hate to admit this but Andy the Clown could have been damn right on when he said the actual budget cap was $106 mil.

 

Now that I've gotten that out, I'd like to reiterate the fact that I think trading a package including JC for Abreu(+?) at this time is unwise. We DO need some people in the bullpen after all. So unless we can add an impact arm without giving up the pieces for Abreu, then it just wouldn't work out. Could we trade BA for a BP arm? I don't think KW would do it. I'm just making the point that I don't think the budget is the most contraining issue here. The 2005 figures equate to an average attendance of 28,923 per game, or about 5,000 less per game than this board's "expected" average next season.

Edited by Frank the Tank 35
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QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 04:48 PM)
IIT Chicago-Kent, Class of 1990. Admitted to Illinois Bar 1991.

 

Yeah and I know where you work. Your IP and your brother both gave that away. So who is lying, you or your IP adress?

 

 

QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 05:05 PM)
One of the posters said that the Sox historically reinvest the previous seasons' profits every year. I do not believe that. That's what I meant to say.

 

Would you agree that Sox ownership is in the business to make money?

 

Changing the arguement again? I have years of Forbes magazines that give total revenues and profits of all of the teams in MLB and years of historical payroll data that show a direct nearly 100% correlation between PnL and next year salary. They have called the teams in MLB way more profitable than the teams themselves have said. They also analyse data from the biggest companies in the world. Personally I think I will take their factual judgements derived from seeing their numbers vs your totally unsubstaniated hunch. Maybe if you could make any proof that didn't include faulty accounting I could start to believe you, until then, all you have proven is that you didn't even take as much as high school level accounting. Realize that I have been saying this for years and NO ONE has come up with ANY actual data that proves me even questionable in this. NO ONE. I dare you to be the first. Don't change the arguement. Don't challenge my fandom. Find somewhere that states that the Sox are realizing huge profits that are not reinvested in the team. Find ANYTHING. Then maybe someone will respect what you are saying. Until then, give up the arguement.

 

QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 05:23 PM)
1. Abreu improves the team.

2. An improved team has a better chance to repeat as champions.

3. A championship teams draw more fans.

 

1+2+3= MORE MONEY!

 

 

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 05:31 PM)
Several points in reply.

 

1.  There are 2 ways we could make more money by winning games; selling tickets at higher prices or by filling more empty seats.  We already have set ticket prices for this year, so let's throw that out the window.

2.  Therefore, the only place we have to increase revenue this year is to sell more tickets.

3.  We have already sold a significant number of season tickets...to a base of over 20,000.  We will have many games which are almost certain to sell out...Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, etc.

4.  The games which are during the summer will also sell well...simply because it's summer, we've already won a title, and we should at the very worst have a decent team next year..

5.  In other threads, for a variety of reasons...we have estimated that the stadium will probably average somewhere between 35,000-38,000 fans per game this year.

6.  This leaves only a limited amount of slack in the form of available tickets.  There will be no tickets for games people actually really want to see, and very few for summer games, even those which people don't really care about, like games against K.C. or Tampa or someone like that.

7.  Therefore...the only way we can grow the revenue any farther is to find a way to sell more tickets to games with teams that we already should be beating during times when the weather is poor and kids are back in school, since those are the games which will be the most readily available.

 

The question I put to you is this...please prove to me not only that winning increases revenue...but that Bobby Abreu will sell more tickets to games that we should win anyway...and that he will be able to sell roughly 250,000+ more tickets overall, given how many games are already sold out (assuming each fan in the seats spends an average of over $40 on a game, including parking, food, and the cheap, available seating for those games which hasn't been grabbed by season ticket purchasers)

 

I started to answer this, and then saw Balta pretty well killed you on this one. I will contribute one more thing for you to look up here. Its called Diminishing Marginal Returns. Returns on investment are not straight-lined per dollar invested. Just because you add a $15 million player to a $95 million payroll, doesn't mean you get back the same revenues as if you added that same player to a $75 million payroll.

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QUOTE(Frank the Tank 35 @ Jan 23, 2006 -> 08:12 PM)
Damn do you guys like throwing down.  Now for some actual numbers...

 

2005 final payroll ~ $75 million

 

2004 attendance- 1,930,537

2005 attendance (excluding playoffs)- 2,342,834

 

2004 avg ticket price- $22.71

FCI (cost for a family of 4 to go to the game done by Team Marketing)- $171.35

 

2005 avg ticket price- $25.89 (up 14%)

FCI- $188.07 (up 9.8%)

 

2004 att/ 4 (family)= 482,634.25 x 2004 FCI= 82,699,378.7375

2005 att/ 4= 585,708.5 x 2005 FCI= 110,154,197.595

 

therefore $75 mill/ 82,699... should approximately equal x/ 110,154... where x= 2006 salary

 

solve for x, x= $99,898,753.12

 

Again, this does not include the postseason and the ridiculous hike in merchandise sales.  Gentlemen, some of you may hate to admit this but Andy the Clown could have been damn right on when he said the actual budget cap was $106 mil.

 

Now that I've gotten that out, I'd like to reiterate the fact that I think trading a package including JC for Abreu(+?) at this time is unwise.  We DO need some people in the bullpen after all.  So unless we can add an impact arm without giving up the pieces for Abreu, then it just wouldn't work out.  Could we trade BA for a BP arm?  I don't think KW would do it.  I'm just making the point that I don't think the budget is the most contraining issue here.  The 2005 figures equate to an average attendance of 28,923 per game, or about 5,000 less per game than this board's "expected" average next season.

 

Nice work. Now if you go back and research net PnLs for the Sox over the years and then correlate it to the net change in next years payroll, you will see it matches almost exactly.

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