southsider2k5 Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 The outlook for the U.S. economy remains "quite favorable for 2006," said Jack Guynn, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in a speech Monday. "The U.S. economy is doing quite well, even better than many people seem to allow themselves to think," Guynn said in a speech prepared for delivery to the Rotary Club of Atlanta. The economy should grow in the range of 3% to 4%, with inflation expectations anchored. Guynn did not shed much light on when the Fed would finish its current tightening cycle. "The closer we get, the less explicit we can be on that point," Guynn said. There are many uncertainties, he said and policy makers "should resist the temptation to say more than we know at any given time." Copyright © 2006 Thomson Financial. All rights reserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonxctf Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 all i know is what i heard this morning on CNBC. Personal Income rose 3.1% for 2005 Inflation rose 3.5% for 2005 Net loss to consumer 0.4%. AND... the inflation rate does not include gas/utility prices and housing prices. Imagine the bloodbath if they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCSox Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 QUOTE(jasonxctf @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 10:58 AM) all i know is what i heard this morning on CNBC. Personal Income rose 3.1% for 2005 Inflation rose 3.5% for 2005 Net loss to consumer 0.4%. AND... the inflation rate does not include gas/utility prices and housing prices. Imagine the bloodbath if they did. Does the inflation rate include the excessively over-priced housing market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 QUOTE(jasonxctf @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 12:58 PM) all i know is what i heard this morning on CNBC. Personal Income rose 3.1% for 2005 Inflation rose 3.5% for 2005 Net loss to consumer 0.4%. AND... the inflation rate does not include gas/utility prices and housing prices.Imagine the bloodbath if they did. But I keep getting told how housing prices are putting money into peoples pockets and are singlehandedly pushing this extended recovery? How can housing prices be both good and bad when fitting for an arguement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreye Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Dow is at 11,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonxctf Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 06:18 PM) But I keep getting told how housing prices are putting money into peoples pockets and are singlehandedly pushing this extended recovery? How can housing prices be both good and bad when fitting for an arguement. good point. i guess it's good for those selling a high-end home for a low-end townhouse (think elderly). it's bad for those buying their first home (think 20-somethings) and it's bad for those who are selling a low-end home/townhouse for a high end home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 I think it's weaker than people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 QUOTE(mreye @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 01:22 PM) Dow is at 11,000 I can't begin to say how important, both from a technical and a mental standpoint, it is for the Dow to close above 11,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreye Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 12:49 PM) I can't begin to say how important, both from a technical and a mental standpoint, it is for the Dow to close above 11,000. It's moved right on through. We'll see if there's a sell off in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCSox Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 QUOTE(jasonxctf @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 11:29 AM) it's bad for those buying their first home (think 20-somethings) Yep, and some of those people are paying $400,000 for 1,600 square-foot homes just because they want to own a house. There are a number of young people in California who are spending 60% or 70% of their income on their mortgages. Amazing... :headshake This is a great time to rent and put off buying a house. I'm not even going to think about it until the prices come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 QUOTE(mreye @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 02:06 PM) It's moved right on through. We'll see if there's a sell off in about an hour. The last 30 minutes are all that matters. It will float around here for a while since it didn't start a technical computer driven selloff right away like it did for Dow10,000. We'll see if people are confident enough to go home long the down at 11k+ and multi year highs for the NASD and SP. I get the feeling we will either see about 11,050 or 10,950 by the end of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Interesting bit that just hit the wires... WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Outstanding U.S. consumer debt fell for the second month in a row in November for the first time in 13 years, the Federal Reserve said Monday. Outstanding credit dropped at an annual rate of 0.4%, or $649 million, in November to $2.156 trillion. In October, credit fell a revised $8.4 billion, or 4.7% annual rate. The last time credit fell in two straight months was in May and June of 1992. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting credit to increase about $4.8 billion in November. In November, revolving, or credit card, debt, increased $335 million, or 0.5%. Nonrevolving debt, such as auto loans, fell $984 million, or 0.9%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 So what exactly does that 2nd bit tell me? American's aren't buying as many cars as they did during the 2 months when Ford, GM, and Chrysler were running those massive employee pricing programs over the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 03:16 PM) So what exactly does that 2nd bit tell me? American's aren't buying as many cars as they did during the 2 months when Ford, GM, and Chrysler were running those massive employee pricing programs over the summer? That and the market is probably nil with all of the people who have bought cars in the last few years at 0 interest or with huge incentives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Last half hour of trading underway... 11 points under 11K now, lets see what the old Dow has in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Geesh, more people stealing their ideas from Soxtalk "There was a shot of optimism from the Fed minutes and I think that's what has carried the market through so far," said Ed Peters, chief investment officer at Pan Agora, referring to remarks made by Fed officials at its December interest-rate meeting that an end to the central bank's cycle of rate rises is in the offing. Peters said an end to interest-rate hikes eases fears that the Fed will raise rates too much and choke off growth in corporate earnings. Commenting on the Dow hitting 11,000, he said it was "psychologically key" for the market. "Other indexes, like the small caps, have been hitting all-time highs already so this would be good for blue chips and encouraging for everybody." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreye Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 11K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Looks like we are going to settle around 11,011 on the day. Good news for the technical guys as that breaks a big BIG resistance point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreye Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 03:01 PM) Looks like we are going to settle around 11,011 on the day. Good news for the technical guys as that breaks a big BIG resistance point. Very good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NUKE_CLEVELAND Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 QUOTE(mreye @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 03:09 PM) Very good news! Its been a REALLY good weeks worth of action for anyone with anything to do with the market. Heres to kicking off a fine year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 9, 2006 -> 12:24 PM) That and the market is probably nil with all of the people who have bought cars in the last few years at 0 interest or with huge incentives. Ok, according to the AP, I was 1/2 right on that stat. There's 2 things going into it...1 low automobile sales in the last 2 months (as expected given that the manufacturers pumped up sales over the summer at the expense of winter with those discounts), and second people are still moving debt into home equity loans, which is not counted by that survey. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Another positive day on the technical front. Stocks opened about 50 points lower and traded in the red all day today, but rallied in the last 10 minutes to close lower by a fraction of a point, but to stay above the all important 11,000 level for the second day in a row. This could very well be the process of starting to building a floor at 11k.... stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NUKE_CLEVELAND Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 10, 2006 -> 03:16 PM) Another positive day on the technical front. Stocks opened about 50 points lower and traded in the red all day today, but rallied in the last 10 minutes to close lower by a fraction of a point, but to stay above the all important 11,000 level for the second day in a row. This could very well be the process of starting to building a floor at 11k.... stay tuned. The January effect is in full effect. It was really nice to see the indices take a little rest today without any decline in the averages. Meanwhile, a number of analysts are calling for gains north of 20% this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 QUOTE(NUKE_CLEVELAND @ Jan 10, 2006 -> 09:50 PM) The January effect is in full effect. It was really nice to see the indices take a little rest today without any decline in the averages. Meanwhile, a number of analysts are calling for gains north of 20% this year. I'd be surprised at that. Election years (even though it's a Congressional election) typically don't do that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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