Angels may go with Youth movement

[Balta1701]

According to today's LA Times, the LA Angels, having missed out on PK, seem to have decided that their best move for this year is to start going with a youth movement and bringing up some of that massive talent they have sitting in their minor leagues.

 

Given that it seems Ramirez and Tejada are off the market, and that team needs bats, they're going to take a shot by moving Erstadt back to Center Field and giving 22 year old Casey Kotchman chance to play at 1b. Kotchman put up good power numbers last year (7 home runs in 126 at bats), so they do have some hope.

 

There will be more youth in their lineup too, with rookie Jeff Mathis getting playing time behind the plate along with Jose Molina, and Dallas McPherson splitting time between DH and 3rd base as his injury recovery allows.

 

The Angels biggest problem, and I think this is obvious to everyone right now, is their starting pitching, where they have Colon, Lackey, and Ervin Santana as their top 3 guys, and potentially 2 former bullpen guys in Kelvin Escobar and possibly either another rookie or Hector Carrasco (who has started 7 games in his career, 5 last year with the nats) in their 4-5 starter spots, to say nothing about the fact that Colon's "David Wells workout tapes" seemed to start taking their toll on him last year.

 

Overall, to me this seems like a good plan for the Angels in the long-term, because they start working in some of their highly talented minor league guys at a low price, and wind up keeping their costs down next year. However, it sure looks right now like the Angels are probably going to be taking a step backwards next year, and that division may now officially be open for Texas and Oakland to make runs at it next year. That could change with big years from Kotchman and McPherson, but they have a lot of losses to overcome.

[RockRaines]

They do have an assload of talent in their system however. But if they wait to let that develop, then some of the older players will be used up. Vlad, Colon, Lackey, Erstad, cant all play forever.

[Balta1701]

They do have an assload of talent in their system however.  But if they wait to let that develop, then some of the older players will be used up.  Vlad, Colon, Lackey, Erstad, cant all play forever.

Vlad will only turn 30 this year and he's under contract with them for 3 more years. Lackey will only be 28 this year. Erstadt...well...several people would say the Angels would be better without him anyway, since he's not really an asset with the bat and he gets paid a ton.

[Chisoxfn]

The Angels got a lot of talent and I absolutely love Casey Kochman. However the Angels are a far worse team this year than they were last year and barring any major moves I don't anticipate them making the playoffs.

[GreatScott82]

The Angels got a lot of talent and I absolutely love Casey Kochman.  However the Angels are a far worse team this year than they were last year and barring any major moves I don't anticipate them making the playoffs.

If you don't like the Angels out of the west than who do you like? Its a weaker division, but I think the Angels are still the favorite. The A's on the other hand could be a surprise. If they pick up a 'healthy' Frank and with there solid young pitching to go along with Zito they might take the west.

[fullcollapse]

letting kochman play is the right move. if you put erstad in center then does figgins move around and play a different spot everyday again? or is finding a new home erstad a better idea. personally i would try to move erstad for whatever you can get. as far as the al west goes, i'd think oakland would have to be the favorites, especially if crosby can stay healthy. they've got good young pitching and a good defense... which was the strong point of the sox last year, and that worked out pretty nicely.

[Balta1701]

If you don't like the Angels out of the west than who do you like? Its a weaker division, but I think the Angels are still the favorite. The A's on the other hand could be a surprise. If they pick up a 'healthy' Frank and with there solid young pitching to go along with Zito they might take the west.

I think right now the A's have to be viewed as the prohibitive favorite out there...they've improved their offense (Albiet in a risky fashion) by adding Bradley, their young guys who made a run at the division last year are a year older, and some people have had time to recover from injuries. That could change rapidly though, depending on whether or not Beane holds onto Zito and whether or not Crosby can stay healthy.

 

I honestly put Texas a close 2nd right now, because Thanks to Texas's offense, they only needed to add a little bit of pitching to stand a real good chance, and they've added a little bit of pitching. May not be enough, but they didn't need all that much anyway.

 

Seattle might have an outside shot, but they need the Adrian Beltre from 2 years ago to kill the Beltre from last year, among other things. The Angels should still be better than them.

[Milkman delivers]

Where the hell is Bengie Molina gonna sign? I'm surprised he's not taken yet.

[AirScott]

this offseason has left the Angels weaker, but not too weak to contend. the AL West is definitely going to be tight (especially if Beltre pans out for the Mariners), and if the A's sign Big Frank I'd say they're the favorites, but don't count out the Angels. Mathis played well last year in AAA (.276 and 21 HRs in 427 ABs), so if he can contribute regularly for the Angels right away the offensive drop-off from Bengie shouldn't be too bad.

[Balta1701]

this offseason has left the Angels weaker, but not too weak to contend.  the AL West is definitely going to be tight (especially if Beltre pans out for the Mariners), and if the A's sign Big Frank I'd say they're the favorites, but don't count out the Angels.  Mathis played well last year in AAA (.276 and 21 HRs in 427 ABs), so if he can contribute regularly for the Angels right away the offensive drop-off from Bengie shouldn't be too bad.

Bunch of points in reply. First, even if Mathis shows good power in the big leagues, that may very well not be enough to compensate for the loss of Molina, mainly because of the way the Angels are built. Unlike the Moneyball teams, the Angels are built to be a "get em on, get em over, get em in" club. They always have one of the lowest OBP's in the AL every year. They sacrifice people, they use up outs getting people into scoring position, etc. While I think this is a fine strategy, it does mean 1 thing:

 

If you're hitting home runs, you will drive in less runs with a team like that than with a team that draws a lot of walks. The Angels scored their runs last year by being basically the best team in baseball hitting with RISP (or the 2nd best right next to the Bosox). They scored almost as many runs as us, while hitting liek 50 less home runs. Molina was a big part of that.

 

With RISP, Molina hit over .290, and he hit over .360 in those key 2 out RISP situations. Mathis could very well hit .270 with 20 home runs and drive in less runs than Molina did, because all his home runs could be solo shots.

 

Furthermore, the big dropoff for the Angels this year doens't look to be offense, it looks to be pitching. The Angels were in the bottom 5 in offense in the AL last year, just like us. They made the playoff just like us...because of their pitching. Their starting pitching has lost 2 key guys, they have 1 2nd year guy in there, and the health of another guy is in question. Their pitching may take a giant step back next year. And if that happens, the only thing that could make them competitive is their offense, and that means they need to not just be almost as good as their (poor) offense last year, they need to be significantly better. And it'll take major performances from all of those young guys for that to even be possible.

[AirScott]

Bunch of points in reply.  First, even if Mathis shows good power in the big leagues, that may very well not be enough to compensate for the loss of Molina, mainly because of the way the Angels are built.  Unlike the Moneyball teams, the Angels are built to be a "get em on, get em over, get em in" club.  They always have one of the lowest OBP's in the AL every year.  They sacrifice people, they use up outs getting people into scoring position, etc.  While I think this is a fine strategy, it does mean 1 thing:

 

If you're hitting home runs, you will drive in less runs with a team like that than with a team that draws a lot of walks.  The Angels scored their runs last year by being basically the best team in baseball hitting with RISP (or the 2nd best right next to the Bosox).  They scored almost as many runs as us, while hitting liek 50 less home runs.  Molina was a big part of that.

 

With RISP, Molina hit over .290, and he hit over .360 in those key 2 out RISP situations.  Mathis could very well hit .270 with 20 home runs and drive in less runs than Molina did, because all his home runs could be solo shots.

 

Furthermore, the big dropoff for the Angels this year doens't look to be offense, it looks to be pitching.  The Angels were in the bottom 5 in offense in the AL last year, just like us.  They made the playoff just like us...because of their pitching.  Their starting pitching has lost 2 key guys, they have 1 2nd year guy in there, and the health of another guy is in question.  Their pitching may take a giant step back next year.  And if that happens, the only thing that could make them competitive is their offense, and that means they need to not just be almost as good as their (poor) offense last year, they need to be significantly better.  And it'll take major performances from all of those young guys for that to even be possible.

well, if Mathis delivers, it may come close to evening itself out. he may not be driving in as many runs as Molina, but he won't be as much of a liability when he gets on base. remember, Molina cannot run at all, and holds up anyone running behind him. still a drop-off from Molina to Mathis, though I never said it wasn't, they just won't suffer a that bad of a drop-off offensively. the pitching will be the deciding factor for them, but I think they will still contend.

[SSH2005]

I can see why the Angels are trying to save money somewhere...

 

The Angels have begun negotiations with Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, John Lackey and Chone Figgins on multiyear contracts.

"We'll exchange numbers and keep going from there," said Paul Kinzer, Rodriguez's agent. "Right now, we're trying to settle the first year, but we've also discussed a multi-year deal. We're open to doing something long-term, and the Angels are open to it to a certain extent." Except for Figgins, each of the four players is three years away from free agency. Figgins actually has four years to go.

Source:  Los Angeles Times

That's a lot of good players to lock up right there.

Edited January 12, 2006 by SSH2005

[Chisoxfn]

I think right now the A's have to be viewed as the prohibitive favorite out there...they've improved their offense (Albiet in a risky fashion) by adding Bradley, their young guys who made a run at the division last year are a year older, and some people have had time to recover from injuries.  That could change rapidly though, depending on whether or not Beane holds onto Zito and whether or not Crosby can stay healthy.

 

I honestly put Texas a close 2nd right now, because Thanks to Texas's offense, they only needed to add a little bit of pitching to stand a real good chance, and they've added a little bit of pitching.  May not be enough, but they didn't need all that much anyway.

 

Seattle might have an outside shot, but they need the Adrian Beltre from 2 years ago to kill the Beltre from last year, among other things.  The Angels should still be better than them.

Exactly

[longshot7]

According to The Angels biggest problem, and I think this is obvious to everyone right now, is their starting pitching, where they have Colon, Lackey, and Ervin Santana as their top 3 guys, and potentially 2 former bullpen guys in Kelvin Escobar and possibly either another rookie or Hector Carrasco (who has started 7 games in his career, 5 last year with the nats) in their 4-5 starter spots, to say nothing about the fact that Colon's "David Wells workout tapes" seemed to start taking their toll on him last year.

 

Last year he was wracked with injuries, but in 2004, Escobar was arguably the Angels' best starter. He's a big IF, but if he's healthy, a rotation of Cy Young-winner Colon, Lackey, Escobar, Santana and whoever should be enough to win the West. Texas has improved, but they haven't turned the corner with pitching yet. Oakland is probably the favorite, but with young pitching as we saw in the 2nd half last year, slumps can happen. If the Angels can swing a surprise starter, or get any production of the 5 spot, they should win the division, but it's awful close.

[RME JICO]

First,

I don't see how this is a youth movement. This was the same exact players that played in the ALCS, just in different positions. So this is more smoke and mirrors. There actually is no change. The Angels will be 2nd in the West next year.

 

Oakland's rotation is looking a lot better than the Angels. They have 4 starters that had 33 or more GS last year, and the 5th is Harden who is pretty good. For the Angels, they only had 2 pitchers with 33 GS, and 2 with less than 10.

 

 

OAK

1. B. Zito 35 GS

2. R. Harden 19 GS

3. E. Loaiza 34 GS

4. D. Haren 34 GS

5. J. Blanton 33 GS

 

LAA

1. B. Colon 33 GS

2. J. Lackey 33 GS

3. E. Santana 23 GS

4. K. Escobar 7 GS

5. H. Carrasco 5 GS

 

Even if Escobar comes around, Santana's 4.65 ERA has to be a little concerning.

 

1. OAK

2. LAA

3. TEX

[Balta1701]

First,

I don't see how this is a youth movement.  This was the same exact players that played in the ALCS, just in different positions.  So this is more smoke and mirrors.  There actually is no change.  The Angels will be 2nd in the West next year.

Kotchman, McPherson, and Mathis played in the ALCS?

[AirScott]

Kotchman, McPherson, and Mathis played in the ALCS?

I think what he meant that because Kotchman has been at the major league level a good 30-40 games a year the past two years that he's not exactly a fresh face anymore (and he did get a few ABs in the ALCS, if I remember it right), and Erstad moving to centerfield isn't exactly new, this doesn't compare to other recent youth movements, like the Braves last season.

[RME JICO]

I think what he meant that because Kotchman has been at the major league level a good 30-40 games a year the past two years that he's not exactly a fresh face anymore (and he did get a few ABs in the ALCS, if I remember it right), and Erstad moving to centerfield isn't exactly new, this doesn't compare to other recent youth movements, like the Braves last season.

Thanks, couldn't have said it better myself.

 

 

Just compare the ALCS Games 4 and 5 with their current depth chart. It is basically the same, so it is not like they went out and replaced some of the older players (Anderson or Erstad) with youth.

Edited January 14, 2006 by RME JICO