A Philly-Mets fight for Contreras?

[SSH2005]

I actually watched quite a few games down the stretch, especially the Philly/Houston series in a HUGE wild card battle, where Houston prophetically swept Philly IN Philly and Abreu went 2-10 with a couple ribbies. Now, is it his fault they lost? No, it wasn't. But in games like that I want my 13 million players going nuts on the WC opposition. Of course, I'm sure they'll look at that series as they only lose the WC by 1.

 

But throw out perceived "big game" anything. I still think your nuts to want to pay a player 9 mil more that put up .033, 20 more SB, and a little better defense over Dye. Dye is a luxury at the contract that we have him at. It just doesn't make sense to trade him for that kind of increase. And even if Abreu widens the gap a little, you have to figure that would decrease a little bit when he came to our park, even as good as a place that it has become to hit in.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, I'm not expecting Abreu to put up another .879 OPS. I'm expecting him to put up around a .925 OPS next season. And I'm hoping that Dye can repeat his .846 OPS. Dye doesn't really walk at all so if he isn't hitting a lot of homers, his OPS will drop quite a bit. Abreu draws a ton of walks so even if his bat is slumping he can still get on base in that way.

Edited February 3, 2006 by SSH2005

[Frank the Tank 35]

I think I'll insert an analogy at this time...

Paying for talent is like paying for shaving tenths of a second off a car's 0-60 time. At first it's relatively cheap, adding horsepower through various BPU, then getting more complicated and expensive with forced induction, etc. After 0-60 in the 5 second range, it starts costing thousands, then tens of thousands once you get into the mid 4 range. The point is that average players make average money. When you want a better player, the price does not have a direct straight-line correlation with talent/performance but rather an exponential one.

 

While JD's contract is certainly a great deal, I don't see Abreu's contract as ridiculously out of line. If you want the White Sox ride to be "extra sporty," you're gonna have to pay up. A LOT more SB's, considerably better avg, dynamite OBP, (a few less hrs sure) is gonna cost you plenty. Considering Dye should probably be making ~$3 mill more, these "added features" with Abreu certainly cover the remaining disparity.

 

Keep in mind, that's value according to dollars. Even though he's being paid more, outside of maybe $2-3 mill, his contract is justified against Dye. Against the rest of the league, it's probably market value. Does that mean we shouldn't trade Dye because he's the better deal? Certainly not, Abreu is still the better player. Contreras+Dye seems > Abreu, but Contreras+Dye looks = Abreu+top SP prospect(+$2 mill per year? wishful thinking)

 

One last tidbit, I know all of us here love our Sox players, but I know KW knows the sell high, buy low principle. He certainly bought low on Contreras and Dye. He could turn Esteban Loiaza (FA signing) and JD (FA signing) into one of the best RF's in the game coming off a down year. JC had a career year (up to this point), and JD had his best year in several years. I'd say they're both high while BA's value is low.

Edited February 3, 2006 by Frank the Tank 35

[SSH2005]

The main reason that I'm not opposed to this trade is because while our offense is improved from last season, I still don't think it would hurt to improve it even more. The way I see it, we have four good OPS (~.800 or higher) guys -- Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Iguchi. Crede, Uribe, Pierzynski, Anderson, and Podsednik (I know Podsednik is a leadoff hitter) could all put up mediocre OPS's (~.750 or lower) next season. It wouldn't hurt to improve our OPS a bit at a position and even add some more speed and SB. We would also be adding a pitching prospect to hopefully replace Contreras in the future since he may be gone after 2006 anyways.

[witesoxfan]

But then again, you thought Ruben Sierra was a great pickup for the Twins, so who am I to argue with a mastermind GM like you?

 

No-risk, any reward type moves can really only ever be good moves, and can never be bad moves.

 

I liked the Ben Grieve minor league contract and spring training invitee...but odds are good he's AAA roster fodder all year long.

 

I wasn't friggin skeeting in my pants over the move saying "OMGWTF!!1!!! TWINS SIGNED RUBEN SIERRA WE'RE f***ED!!1!!1"...it's a solid move that has no risk whatsoever involved.

 

Regardless, I don't see how that's even relevant to this topic at all.

[DBAHO]

Well, I'm not expecting Abreu to put up another .879 OPS.  I'm expecting him to put up around a .925 OPS next season.  And I'm hoping that Dye can repeat his .846 OPS.  Dye doesn't really walk at all so if he isn't hitting a lot of homers, his OPS will drop quite a bit.  Abreu draws a ton of walks so even if his bat is slumping he can still get on base in that way.

I think Dye can improve on that .846 OPS, if he can keep hitting more like he did from late May onwards, compared to his terrible April.

 

I'm just a little wary on acquiring Abreu, for the amount of money we'll be paying him, possibly for the next 3 seasons. He's not worth 8-10M more then Dye that's for sure. Dye led all RF's with 31 HR's last season, while Abreu hitting in most possibly the best hitting stadium in baseball only had 24.

 

And in 2 of the last 3 seasons, Abreu hasn't posted a +.900 OPS. There was also not much of a difference b/w Dye's home and away splits for 2005, and he also had the same OPS's against lefties and righties, another plus (compared to your Jackass Jones's). He also doesn't strike out as much as Abreu.

 

All in all, Abreu is a better player then Dye, but the margin isn't as great as a lot of people would probably think at first glance. He's not worth the extra money he's making, and he's not worth giving up Jose Contreras as well, on top of it.

[SSH2005]

I think Dye can improve on that .846 OPS, if he can keep hitting more like he did from late May onwards, compared to his terrible April.

 

I'm just a little wary on acquiring Abreu, for the amount of money we'll be paying him, possibly for the next 3 seasons. He's not worth 8-10M more then Dye that's for sure. Dye led all RF's with 31 HR's last season, while Abreu hitting in most possibly the best hitting stadium in baseball only had 24.

 

And in 2 of the last 3 seasons, Abreu hasn't posted a +.900 OPS. There was also not much of a difference b/w Dye's home and away splits for 2005, and he also had the same OPS's against lefties and righties, another plus (compared to your Jackass Jones's). He also doesn't strike out as much as Abreu.

 

All in all, Abreu is a better player then Dye, but the margin isn't as great as a lot of people would probably think at first glance. He's not worth the extra money he's making, and he's not worth giving up Jose Contreras as well, on top of it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Every year people say that about Crede and every year it never happens. It doesn't happen because they aren't great hitters, only mediocre to good. A good but not great hitter like Dye and a mediocre hitter like Crede will probably always be inconsistent in that way. They swing at too many bad pitches to have a consistent stream of quality at bats from month to month, hence their low walk totals and stretches of horrible OPS's. Look at Dye's AVG (.274) and OBP (.333) from last season. They ended up being right around his career totals (.272 AVG, .334 OBP). But Dye's SLG (.512) from last season blew away his career SLG (.469), most likely due to the Cell factor. Dye won't be able to put up a much higher OPS than last year's unless he raises his OBP by drawing walks. But at this point in his career, he's just not going to become that type of hitter. I'm not going to get my hopes up that they will be solid for every month of next season. Dye and Crede will continue to have horrid offensive months. It's just the type of hitters they are.

 

I'd rather have a guy who hits 24 homers with a .405 OBP than a guy who hits 31 homers with a .333 OBP. I think the guy with the higher OBP will help score more runs than the guy with 7 more homers and a much lower OBP.

 

The Sox are obviously spending a lot of money now. I can understand how people are worried about this but it's not my money so I hope they keep spending it.

Edited February 3, 2006 by SSH2005

[daa84]

Hot Internet trade rumor du jour has Gillick sending Bobby Abreu and Gavin Floyd to the defending World Series champion White Sox for veteran outfielder Jermaine Dye and righthanded workhorse Jose Contreras.

 

Officials from both teams deny any such talks. It's a rumor revived from the fall. Dye is Ozzie Guillen's No. 3 hitter. On the other hand, Contreras is on the final year of his contract and is owed $8.5 million this season. Maybe the White Sox really are deep enough in starters to consider moving a guy who was 6-0 in September and 11-2 the second half. The deal-breaking question could be: Why would Chicago settle for Gavin Floyd? Whatever, it rates a solid 6.0 on the trade-rumor Richter Scale and even makes a little sense for the Phillies. When you factor the intangibles, I'm not so sure Abreu would be an upgrade for the Sox. But Dye would certainly fit well here. He led all rightfielders last season with 31 homers.

 

http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/sports/13780561.htm

[DBAHO]

Every year people say that about Crede and every year it never happens.  It doesn't happen because they aren't great hitters, only mediocre to good.  A good but not great hitter like Dye and a mediocre hitter like Crede will probably always be inconsistent in that way.  They swing at too many bad pitches to have a consistent stream of quality at bats from month to month, hence their low walk totals and stretches of horrible OPS's.  Look at Dye's AVG (.274) and OBP (.333) from last season.  They ended up being right around his career totals (.272 AVG, .334 OBP).  But Dye's SLG (.512) from last season blew away his career SLG (.469), most likely due to the Cell factor.  Dye won't be able to put up a much higher OPS than last year's unless he raises his OBP by drawing walks.  But at this point in his career, he's just not going to become that type of hitter.  I'm not going to get my hopes up that they will be solid for every month of next season.  Dye and Crede will continue to have horrid offensive months.  It's just the type of hitters they are.

 

I'd rather have a guy who hits 24 homers with a .405 OBP than a guy who hits 31 homers with a .333 OBP.  I think the guy with the higher OBP will help score more runs than the guy with 7 more homers and a much lower OBP.

 

The Sox are obviously spending a lot of money now.  I can understand how people are worried about this but it's not my money so I hope they keep spending it.

So you don't think Joe Crede will improve this season on his past numbers? The guy put up 4 +.800 OPS's in 2005, and remember he had that finger injury which pretty much killed one of those months. I wouldn't call Crede a mediocre hitter, I know quite a few teams would like to have him at 3rd base.

 

I guess it just worries me that Abreu can only put up around 20-25 HR's for the type of park that he's hitting in. As for your money point, it doesn't matter how much money they are spending. The fact is, they are trading a good RF and a #1 SP, for a very good RF, and basically still paying the same money. We've got far less payroll flexibility, and since we're not the Yankees, I don't think it's the right way to go about building this team.

[klaus kinski]

I'm still not convinced our offense is improved until we see what we got in center, and DH

[klaus kinski]

And while we are long on what everyone wants, lets put a 25 homer 40 double guy in that 3 spot

[Balta1701]

I'm still not convinced our offense is improved until we see what we got in center, and DH

If Jim Thome avoids injury...our offense has massively improved.

 

If everything goes perfectly right for us this year...we could have one of the top 2-3 offenses in the AL. But that means Crede & Anderson not struggling, Thome staying healthy, Konerko and Dye not dropping off, Pods not getting hurt at the end of the year, Iguchi and Uribe adapting to their roles, and AJ having a vastly better year. Some of those won't happen. Hopefully most of them will.

 

But, if you put Konerko and Thome together in a lineup, compared to anything we had last year...that is a massive improvement.

[SSH2005]

So you don't think Joe Crede will improve this season on his past numbers? The guy put up 4 +.800 OPS's in 2005, and remember he had that finger injury which pretty much killed one of those months. I wouldn't call Crede a mediocre hitter, I know quite a few teams would like to have him at 3rd base.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would hope so but I don't expect it. This goes back to what I was saying about Dye as well. Crede's OPS will probably increase a bit if he keeps hitting more homeruns but it won't increase a lot until he learns how to take a walk.

 

2003: 536 AB | 32 BB | .261 AVG | .308 OBP | .433 SLG | .741 OPS

2004: 490 AB | 34 BB | .239 AVG | .299 OBP | .418 SLG | .717 OPS

2005: 432 AB | 25 BB | .252 AVG | .303 OBP | .454 SLG | .756 OPS

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Career: 1722 AB | 102 BB | .255 AVG | .303 OBP | .439 SLG | .743 OPS

 

Other than his second full season sophomore slump in 2004, his numbers look pretty consistent with his career so far. Unless Crede learns some plate patience and starts drawing walks, the only way he will see an .800+ OPS is if he puts up a ~.500 SLG. Right now, Crede IS a mediocre hitter. Teams would want him at 3rd base more for his glove than his bat. But Crede IS entering his prime years so if it's going to happen at all it would probably have to happen next season or 2007.

Edited February 4, 2006 by SSH2005

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(klaus kinski @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 02:54 AM)

I'm still not convinced our offense is improved until we see what we got in center, and DH

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Why is that? Whatever we get from Brian Anderson and Jim Thome can not be half as bad as what we got offensively from Aaron Rowand and our DH rotation. Offensively Anderson should be just as good as Rowand and Thome should be much better than anyone we had at DH. But whatever.

[SSH2005]

Why is that? Whatever we get from Brian Anderson and Jim Thome can not be half as bad as what we got offensively from Aaron Rowand and our DH rotation. Offensively Anderson should be just as good as Rowand and Thome should be much better than anyone we had at DH. But whatever.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed, Anderson will probably stuggle in his rookie season but Rowand only had a .736 OPS last season. That's not really a tall mountain to climb. And Everett had a .745 OPS last season. I would bet my left nut that Thome blows that away.

[3E8]

I'm still not convinced our offense is improved until we see what we got in center, and DH

I agree with this guy. The combination of Everett, Thomas, and Rowand drove in 25% of our runs last season. One quarter of a run total that was in the bottom-half of the AL from that group! A lower run total this year is not out of the question in my opinion. We all know how I feel about Thome. Anderson will be below average offensively but we can't expect much there, and Crede batting behind him (not a fan) will hurt us some. Konerko's probably more likely to regress from last season's totals. I like Uribe as much as anyone here, but a .300 OBP from the 2-hole won't cut it. I'd consider him the most likely candidate for improvement however.

[SSH2005]

Sox deny Abreu trade

Dye, Contreras part of rumored deal

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sp...ack=1&cset=true

White Sox general manager Ken Williams shot down Internet reports that the team was on the verge of trading pitcher Jose Contreras and right fielder Jermaine Dye to Philadelphia for All-Star right fielder Bobby Abreu and pitching prospect Gavin Floyd.

 

Williams, through a team spokesman, said there is nothing to the report, adding he hadn't spoken to the Phillies in eight or nine days and that no proposal was tendered.

 

Such a deal would have cost the Sox at least $15 million—Abreu's salary—in 2007. The Sox already will owe $90 million to 11 players for 2007 if they pick up the options on Dye, pitcher Mark Buehrle and second baseman Tadahito Iguchi.

 

Abreu, 31, is the third player in major-league history with seven straight seasons with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, joining Barry Bonds and the late Bobby Bonds.

 

Contreras can be a free agent after this season. Floyd, 23, fits the profile of a pitching prospect Williams would seek in a deal for one of his starters.

 

But Floyd, the fourth overall selection in the 2001 amateur draft, has a 6.63 ERA in 13 major-league appearances covering two seasons and was 6-9 with a 6.19 ERA in 24 games with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season.

 

In other Sox news, Dave Wilder, the team's director of player development, interviewed this week for Cincinnati's GM position. Wilder has interviewed for similar positions this winter with Arizona and Boston.

It's interesting that KW denied the trade rumors but he does say that he talked to the Phillies eight or nine days ago. If Contreras IS traded, I doubt it would be until Spring Training. Why trade him now when you could just wait until ST and see if all of your pitchers stay healthy, especially with Garcia and Vazquez pitching in the WBC?

[jphat007]

Sox deny Abreu trade

Dye, Contreras part of rumored deal

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sp...ack=1&cset=true

It's interesting that KW denied the trade rumors but he does say that he talked to the Phillies eight or nine days ago.  If Contreras IS traded, I doubt it would be until Spring Training.  Why trade him now when you could just wait until ST and see if all of your pitchers stay healthy, especially with Garcia and Vazquez pitching in the WBC?

 

I'd imagine that KW has talked to almost every team in baseball the last 8-9 days.

 

PS. KW is not trading Contreras.

Edited February 4, 2006 by jphat007

[SSH2005]

I'd imagine that KW has talked to almost every team in baseball the last 8-9 days.

 

PS. KW is not trading Contreras.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe, but it's interesting nonetheless. I don't know if Contreras will be dealt or not but there's no way to know for sure right now.

[jphat007]

Maybe, but it's interesting nonetheless.  I don't know if Contreras will be dealt or not but there's no way to know for sure right now.

 

There's no way to know if Johan Santana will be traded tomorrow either. KW has said that he would consider trading JC in the right situation (ie. getting a really great pitcher that is ready to dominate in a rotation right now). Bobby Abreu and Gavin Floyd don't fit that need and most definitely make our team worse this year, when it is obvious that KW plays to win right now.

 

It's only interesting because some guy on mlbtraderumors posted some BS rumor that a newspaper (real journalistic quality there) picked up and ran a story on it. ANd KW talking to Philly nine days ago doesn't make it any more interesting because like I say, I bet big money that he has talked to qutie a few teams about Contreras and a few other of our players. He's always looking and willing to listen.

Edited February 4, 2006 by jphat007

[SSH2005]

There's no way to know if Johan Santana will be traded tomorrow either. KW has said that he would consider trading KW in the right situation (ie. getting a really great pitcher that is ready to dominate in a rotation right now). Bobby Abreu and Gavin Floyd don't fit that need and most definitely make our team worse this year, when it is obvious that KW plays to win right now.

 

It's only interesting because some guy on mlbtraderumors posted some BS rumor that a newspaper (real journalistic quality there) picked up and ran a story on it. ANd KW talking to Philly nine days ago doesn't make it any more interesting because like I say, I bet big money that he has talked to qutie a few teams about Contreras and a few other of our players. He's always looking and willing to listen.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Johan Santana is not a good comparison. He's the best pitcher in the A.L., he's young (26), and he's locked up for three years earning less than he's worth ($9 MM in 2006, $12 MM in 2007, and $13.12 MM in 2008). Contreras is 34 years old, coming off of a career year, is only under contract for one more season, and the Sox receive no compensation if he leaves to free agency. Once again, Santana is not a good comparison to the Contreras situation at all.

 

And I don't recall KW saying that he wants "a really great pitcher that is ready to dominate in a rotation right now." McCarthy would replace Contreras in the rotation anyways. And no team would give up that type of pitcher for a 34 year old Contreras. I thought that KW wanted young, talented pitching that could help the White Sox now and in the future. If a team has "a really great pitcher that is ready to dominate in a rotation right now" they would just keep that guy in their own rotation instead of trading him for one year of Contreras.

[DBAHO]

I thought that KW wanted young, talented pitching that could help the White Sox now and in the future. 

Which why I would prefer having Milledge + Heilman + Dye instead of Abreu and Floyd.

 

I think that definitely helps us more in the long - term, and you don't lose much at all in the short - term either, with Heilman and B-Mac for those 5th / swingman roles.

 

But unless a team like Houston gets the Bagwell situation sorted and are able to trade for a guy like Jose and give up some good pitching spects, I don't know whether KW's gonna be able to get specifically what he wants.

[jphat007]

Johan Santana is not a good comparison.  He's the best pitcher in the A.L., he's young (26), and he's locked up for three years earning less than he's worth ($9 MM in 2006, $12 MM in 2007, and $13.12 MM in 2008).  Contreras is 34 years old, coming off of a career year, is only under contract for one more season, and the Sox receive no compensation if he leaves to free agency.  Once again, Santana is not a good comparison to the Contreras situation at all.

 

And I don't recall KW saying that he wants "a really great pitcher that is ready to dominate in a rotation right now."  McCarthy would replace Contreras in the rotation anyways.  And no team would give up that type of pitcher for a 34 year old Contreras.  I thought that KW wanted young, talented pitching that could help the White Sox now and in the future.  If a team has "a really great pitcher that is ready to dominate in a rotation right now" they would just keep that guy in their own rotation instead of trading him for one year of Contreras.

 

Sigh.

 

1. THe point was that anybody can be traded at any time, if the price is right. Obviously Santana would demand a Pujols plus type player(s).

 

2. THere is nothing out there that could make us any better for this year unless some team is stupid and wants to give up an Ace type pitcher. THats why they aren't trading Contreras. And KW has said on numerous occasions that he will always listen but won't trade Contreras away unless it is for pitching that can help us win a WS this year. KW is not looking for a bat, unless somebody is willing to give us something for nothing. If he traded Contreras it would be for good pitching and Gavin Floyd is not good pitching. Somebody that is an Ace type pitcher like the front office expects him to be this year.

 

I imagine that KW, who admittedly is on the internet all the time, has to be getting a good laugh out of this latest stuff made up by mlbtraderumors. Haha. That might be his comedy for all we know. ANd thank goodness our roster decisions aren't made by the people on this, or any other, site. Think of what an awful mess that would be.

[SSH2005]

I imagine that KW, who admittedly is on the internet all the time, has to be getting a good laugh out of this latest stuff made up by mlbtraderumors. Haha. That might be his comedy for all we know. ANd thank goodness our roster decisions aren't made by the people on this, or any other, site. Think of what an awful mess that would be.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe, but it's not like MLBtraderumors.com was the first to report these rumors (not that I buy that they have any credible "sources" anyways). The first rumor regarding a Contreras for Abreu swap was back on January 22nd in the Philadelphia Inquirer. Nobody knows if this trade is ever going to happen but it's not like MLBtraderumors is the only source of these rumors.

Edited February 4, 2006 by SSH2005

[Balta1701]

Other than his second full season sophomore slump in 2004, his numbers look pretty consistent with his career so far.  Unless Crede learns some plate patience and starts drawing walks, the only way he will see an .800+ OPS is if he puts up a ~.500 SLG.  Right now, Crede IS a mediocre hitter.  Teams would want him at 3rd base more for his glove than his bat.  But Crede IS entering his prime years so if it's going to happen at all it would probably have to happen next season or 2007.

Until I see otherwise, I'm going to continue to hope that Crede can find something to turn himself into the hitter we keep getting glimpses of.

 

You all know as well as I do that when Crede is rolling, he has simply the sweetest swing on our roster. Go back and watch the Rally Crede blast. That is an amazingly short and quick swing. Joe's problem has always been that he'll get his swing working for a time, then after a few weeks (i.e. May) his swing will lengthen itself out on outside pitches, he'll stop driving them the other way, and he'll start popping everything up.

 

With a guy like Timo Perez, I'm happy to say he's just not going to be better than what we saw last year. But with Crede...all he needs to do is keep his swing consistent for an entire season. We haven't seen him do that yet, but it's not a huge step beyond what we've already seen from him. If he can just avoid trying to pull that low and outside pitch and spend a whole season trying to drive it the other way...thereby keeping his swing compact...he still has an all star in him. It's all in his swing.

[Balta1701]

2. THere is nothing out there that could make us any better for this year unless some team is stupid and wants to give up an Ace type pitcher. THats why they aren't trading Contreras. And KW has said on numerous occasions that he will always listen but won't trade Contreras away unless it is for pitching that can help us win a WS this year. KW is not looking for a bat, unless somebody is willing to give us something for nothing. If he traded Contreras it would be for good pitching and Gavin Floyd is not good pitching. Somebody that is an Ace type pitcher like the front office expects him to be this year.

A significant portion of me tells me that this sort of talk is just rhetoric from KW. First, he doesn't want to sound like he's desperate to trade Jose, so that someone will try to offer him the sort of deal boston offered for Crisp; a blow-you-away type deal that will make you better for years. When you don't NEED to trade someone, you can wait for the right deal to come along, and that's where KW is sitting right now.

 

Personally though if I'm in his chair...I wait until the season starts and I see how my guys get through the WBC. I try to deal well before the trading deadline. Especially if Contreras keeps up what he did in the 2nd half of last year...he'll be an incredible trading asset. Imagine what you could get for a #1 or #2 guy in the league in wins. If Jose struggles, BMac will probably replace him in the rotation pretty quick anyway, but if he's dominant...I try to see what I can get for him just because his value would be so damn high.

 

But overall...yeah I don't make a deal without a backup plan. At least not an early one. If June rolls around, BMac and the other 4 starters are healthy and have only pitched a limited amount of innings...I see if someone in the NL might be willing to make a deal to make a big run. I still hate the idea of losing Jose for nothing player-wise, not even draft picks.