A Philly-Mets fight for Contreras?

[DBAHO]

I wouldn't bring Dye's career OPS into the discussions considering he spent quite a few years hitting in Oakland, which is a notorious pitchers park and how often he was injured over there.

 

What he put up for us in 2005, he could even do better, considering the terrible start he had.

[jphat007]

I wouldn't bring Dye's career OPS into the discussions considering he spent quite a few years hitting in Oakland, which is a notorious pitchers park and how often he was injured over there.

 

What he put up for us in 2005, he could even do better, considering the terrible start he had.

 

Yep, agreed, which is why I focused on last years OPS, even though Abreu hit in a slightly better park. ANd Dye struggled at the beginning and Abreu struggled late

[SSH2005]

No, I didn't say they'd trade Dye for Abreu straight up, but I'm not surprised you try to put words in my mouth. FOr the purpose of this trade and what they will get out of each player for the money it is fairly the same. And Abreu put those numbers up in a slightly better hitters park, which goes along with teh contract. Dye at his salary is slightly better than Abreu at his salary. And I bet their OPS' are fairly similar next year too

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How did I put words in your mouth? Read your last post...

 

So basically you would be trading an above average right fielder with an awesome contract for a slightly above JD outfielder with a mediocre to bad contract. SO that's fairly even. So pretty much you are trading a number 1 starter for Gavin Floyd, which just isn't going to happen.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You said that Dye and his cheap contract is "fairly even" to Abreu and his large contract, therefore the trade is essentually Contreras for Gavin Floyd. I read that to mean that you think that Dye and his cheap contract has even trade value to Abreu and his large contract.

 

Dye at his salary isn't slightly better than Abreu at his salary... not at all in fact. Even including salaries, Abreu is a pretty big upgrade over Dye.

Edited February 3, 2006 by SSH2005

[jphat007]

How did I put words in your mouth?  Read your last post...

You said that Dye and his cheap contract is "fairly even" to Abreu and his large contract, therefore the trade is essentually Contreras for Gavin Floyd.  I read that to mean that you think that Dye and his cheap contract has even trade value to Abreu and his large contract.

 

Dye at his salary isn't slightly better than Abreu at his salary...  not at all in fact.  Even including salaries, Abreu is a pretty big upgrade over Dye.

 

Not last year. Certainly not in the big games last year. He was better, but not 9 million better or whatever. ANd now that they are in similar parks, thats what I'm using to compare. Plus Abreu had a OPS under .800 in the biggest month for the Phillies in awhile.

Edited February 3, 2006 by jphat007

[DBAHO]

Even including salaries, Abreu is a pretty big upgrade over Dye.

I don't necessarily agree with that statement. Of course if you're a GM here, and you take on Abreu, suddenly that's about 8-10M less you can put into your team, so it signifcantly decreases your payroll flexibility.

 

Consider this from Pat Gillick's point of view. If he could trade Abreu for Dye, and then sign a #1 or #2 starter in FA, you think he would jump at that? I think he would, because he knows how important good starting pitching is.

 

And like I've said before, is Abreu gonna be able to keep stealing bases as he gets older, and will he be able to get back to the numbers he put up in the 1st half of 05 compared to the 2nd half?

 

And his away splits from Philly, aren't really encouraging either.

[jphat007]

I don't necessarily agree with that statement. Of course if you're a GM here, and you take on Abreu, suddenly that's about 8-10M less you can put into your team, so it signifcantly decreases your payroll flexibility.

 

Consider this from Pat Gillick's point of view. If he could trade Abreu for Dye, and then sign a #1 or #2 starter in FA, you think he would jump at that? I think he would, because he knows how important good starting pitching is.

 

And like I've said before, is Abreu gonna be able to keep stealing bases as he gets older, and will he be able to get back to the numbers he put up in the 1st half of 05 compared to the 2nd half?

 

And his away splits from Philly, aren't really encouraging either.

 

Another great post. 832 OPS away from Philly three year split wise. 805 last year as he gets a little older.

 

BTW, for the others, I'm not bustin on Bobby. He's a great player. Lefty, can run and defend. I just don't think he's anywhere near an upgrade over Dye and his contract to the point of giving up a starter like Jose for.

Edited February 3, 2006 by jphat007

[SSH2005]

Not last year. Certainly not in the big games last year. He was better, but not 9 million better or whatever. ANd now that they are in similar parks, thats what I'm using to compare. Plus Abreu had a OPS under .800 in the biggest month for the Phillies in awhile.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oh no, not the "big game/clutch" argument. Better hitters are usually better in big situations because they are just better hitters to begin with.

 

Jermaine Dye (2005 stats with RISP): 131 AB | .260 AVG | .327 OBP | .427 SLG | .754 OPS

Bobby Abreu (2005 stats with RISP): 152 AB | .303 AVG | .444 OBP | .500 SLG | .944 OPS

 

Jermaine Dye (career stats with RISP): 1,199 AB | .249 AVG | .332 OBP | .394 SLG | .725 OPS

Bobby Abreu (career stats with RISP): 1,151 AB | .321 AVG | .454 OBP | .549 SLG | 1.003 OPS

 

I wish Dye was as "clutch" as Abreu.

Edited February 3, 2006 by SSH2005

[jphat007]

Oh no, not the "big game/clutch" argument.  Better hitters are usually better in big situations because they are just better hitters to begin with.

 

Jermaine Dye (2005 stats with RISP):  131 AB  |  .260 AVG  |  .327 OBP  |  .427 SLG  |  .754 OPS

Bobby Abreu (2005 stats with RISP):  152 AB  |  .303 AVG  |  .444 OBP  |  .500 SLG  |  .944 OPS

 

Jermaine Dye (career stats with RISP):  1,199 AB  |  .249 AVG  |  .332 OBP  |  .394 SLG  |  .725 OPS

Bobby Abreu (career stats with RISP):  1,151 AB  |  .321 AVG  |  .454 OBP  |  .549 SLG  |  1.003 OPS

 

I wish Dye was as "clutch" as Abreu. 

 

Most important month for each player, when the pressure is the highest:

Dye - .311 .415 .444 .860

Abreu - .250 .395 .396 .791

 

Abreu is the better player, but they are fairly equal with their contract situations, as DBAH0 agreed above.

[SSH2005]

Most important month for each player, when the pressure is the highest:

Dye -  .311    .415 .444 .860

Abreu - .250    .395 .396 .791

 

Abreu is the better player, but they are fairly equal with their contract situations, as DBAH0 agreed above.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's more important than how each of them hit with runners in scoring position over the course of the entire season? Ummm, no. Runs are what wins games. Scoring runs and not allowing runs is the most important aspect of baseball.

Edited February 3, 2006 by SSH2005

[qwerty]

Most important month for each player, when the pressure is the highest:

Dye -  .311    .415 .444 .860

Abreu - .250    .395 .396 .791

 

Abreu is the better player, but they are fairly equal with their contract situations, as DBAH0 agreed above.

 

Pretty weak arguement. First game of the year means the same in the standings as the last.

[jphat007]

Pretty weak arguement. First game of the year means the same in the standings as the last.

 

I had already talked about overall stats. And increase in SB and OBP while hitting for less power in a better hitters park does not justify 9 more million dollars. Plus you have to like the fact that Dye stepped up in the playoffs, when Abreu was choking when the Phils were trying to get into the playoffs.

 

Of course if we want to just look at numbers we might as well all look at BP and read about how we're going to finish in third or fourth this year because we played above our run differential.

 

We'll see what KW thinks over the next month or so.

Edited February 3, 2006 by jphat007

[SSH2005]

I had already talked about overall stats. And increase in SB and OBP while hitting for less power in a better hitters park does not justify 9 more million dollars. Plus you have to like the fact that Dye stepped up in the playoffs, when Abreu was choking when the Phils were trying to get into the playoffs.

 

Of course if we want to just look at numbers we might as well all look at BP and read about how we're going to finish in third or fourth this year because we played above our run differential.

 

We'll see what KW thinks over the next month or so.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

BP doesn't have anything to do with Abreu being a better hitter and better overall player than Dye. Not sure why you even mentioned it. I don't need BP to tell me that Abreu is better than Dye. It's pretty clear and obvious.

[witesoxfan]

Most important month for each player, when the pressure is the highest:

Dye -  .311    .415 .444 .860

Abreu - .250    .395 .396 .791

 

Abreu is the better player, but they are fairly equal with their contract situations, as DBAH0 agreed above.

 

But, you know what they say, you cant win the division in April, but you sure as hell can lose it...thus, I argue that is the most important month of the year.

 

Dye - .175 .205/.313/.517

Abreu - .261 .371/.341/.712

 

Now I hope you see how unbelievably dumb your argument is...because quite frankly, it is. One player cannot control the destiny of a team, no matter what point of the season you are at. If, hypothetically, Abreu had a month where he put up .400 .500/.750/1.250, and the rest of his team hits .200 .240/.360/.600, how is the offense going to perform?

[CWSGuy406]

I doubt Floyd would replace McCarthy in the bullpen to start the season.  He needs to hone his control at AAA first.  It would most likely be Bajenaru and a second lefty in the bullpen, possibly even Urbina if he gets out of jail.

 

Is Urbina this year's version of Kevin Walker?

 

If so, when can we expect to see him in your avatar/sig?

[SSH2005]

Is Urbina this year's version of Kevin Walker?

 

If so, when can we expect to see him in your avatar/sig?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And the A's are going to win the division and Willie Harris is great. Blah, blah, blah...

[jphat007]

But, you know what they say, you cant win the division in April, but you sure as hell can lose it...thus, I argue that is the most important month of the year.

 

Dye - .175 .205/.313/.517

Abreu - .261 .371/.341/.712

 

Now I hope you see how unbelievably dumb your argument is...because quite frankly, it is.  One player cannot control the destiny of a team, no matter what point of the season you are at.  If, hypothetically, Abreu had a month where he put up .400  .500/.750/1.250, and the rest of his team hits .200 .240/.360/.600, how is the offense going to perform?

 

I didn't say it was his fault that they didn't make the playoffs. I said that he choked down the stretch when his team was in a position to make the playoffs. He might have carried that team on his back all year. Irregardless, at that time when the team was in the situation to make the playoffs, he struggled. If he would have put up great numbers, would they have made it? Maybe, maybe not, but I'm sure the philly front office would have liked to have seen Abreu put up the numbers that Dye put up in October, on the biggest stage their is.

 

But then again, you thought Ruben Sierra was a great pickup for the Twins, so who am I to argue with a mastermind GM like you?

[SSH2005]

All 162 games of the season matter. Each and every game that is won contributes to trying to win your division. Abreu was a better hitter than Dye on the entire season last year and he was a much better hitter with RISP than Dye. This argument is ridiculous.

[jphat007]

BP doesn't have anything to do with Abreu being a better hitter and better overall player than Dye.  Not sure why you even mentioned it.  I don't need BP to tell me that Abreu is better than Dye.  It's pretty clear and obvious.

 

WHat does this have to do with anything. I've said that Abreu is a better hitter than Dye. What does this have to do with my argument?

[CWSGuy406]

And the A's are going to win the division and Willie Harris is great.  Blah, blah, blah...

 

I don't think I every argued for Harris' greatness. 'Useful-ness' might be a better word, if it's a word at all.

 

And, no, Oakland didn't win the division. Came pretty damn close, though, after that horrid start, and I expect to see them atop the West at the end of this year.

[SSH2005]

WHat does this have to do with anything. I've said that Abreu is a better hitter than Dye. What does this have to do with my argument?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I just didn't understand how BP had anything to do with the Dye / Abreu "clutch" argument.

[jphat007]

All 162 games of the season matter.  Each and every game that is won contributes to trying to win your division.  Abreu was a better hitter than Dye on the entire season last year and he was a much better hitter with RISP than Dye.  This argument is ridiculous.

 

You think a .033 difference in OPS, 20 more steals, and better arm while hitting in a better park is worth 9 million bucks.

 

I agree, this argument is ridiculous.

[SSH2005]

No s***?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, when you cut off the rest of my post it doesn't make much sense.

[jphat007]

I just didn't understand how BP had anything to do with the Dye / Abreu "clutch" argument.

 

Point was you have to look beyond the numbers sometimes.

[SSH2005]

Point was you have to look beyond the numbers sometimes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And sometimes you need to look at the numbers before you say that one guy was better in "big games." I don't know how anyone could judge Dye's and Abreu's performances in so-called "big games" on memory alone. I can understand remembering some key hits by Dye but I really doubt a Sox fan was watching Phillies' games last season and remembers how Abreu fared in his "big games."

[jphat007]

And sometimes you need to look at the numbers before you say that one guy was better in "big games."  I don't know how anyone could judge Dye's and Abreu's performances in so-called "big games" on memory alone.  I can understand remembering some key hits by Dye but I really doubt a Sox fan was watching Phillies' games last season and remembers how Abreu fared in his "big games."

 

I actually watched quite a few games down the stretch, especially the Philly/Houston series in a HUGE wild card battle, where Houston prophetically swept Philly IN Philly and Abreu went 2-10 with a couple ribbies. Now, is it his fault they lost? No, it wasn't. But in games like that I want my 13 million players going nuts on the WC opposition. Of course, I'm sure they'll look at that series as they only lose the WC by 1.

 

But throw out perceived "big game" anything. I still think your nuts to want to pay a player 9 mil more that put up .033, 20 more SB, and a little better defense over Dye. Dye is a luxury at the contract that we have him at. It just doesn't make sense to trade him for that kind of increase. And even if Abreu widens the gap a little, you have to figure that would decrease a little bit when he came to our park, even as good as a place that it has become to hit in.

Edited February 3, 2006 by jphat007