Base Stealer Intangibles by Hardball Times

[Frank the Tank 35]

I don't think this has been posted. Good read, a lot of stats for all you stat-heads to ponder.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...ngibles-part-1/

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...ngibles-part-2/

[daa84]

I don't think this has been posted.  Good read, a lot of stats for all you stat-heads to ponder.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...ngibles-part-1/

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...ngibles-part-2/

seems like a good study...my biggest problem with it is that it neglects the fact that a base hit with a "stealer" on first will result more often in teh runner getting to third than with a normal "runner" on first. while theoretical runs created due to the hitter hitting in the study is based entirely on batting statistics of that hitter. id like to see actual runs created because i believe the fact that a stealer being on base will advance to third on more balls than a non stealer will greatly increase the number of total runs scored, especially with under 2 outs as described in teh study. Also presumably, the guys batting after the stealer, iguchi for example, are already probably going to see an increase in the pitcher being flustered because he will not want to face the 3-4 hitters with another man on. i like some of the things that are said, but its so hard to take everything into consideration. it also fails to mention the fact taht presumably with a "stealer" on base, especially int eh consideration of iguchi and castillo (who has the largest # of ABs with a stealer on) that many of teh outs that tehy produce are due to sacrifice bunts.

 

What also should be taken into account is the fact that on ground balls hit the stealer will often force the defense to take the one out at 1st instead of turning a double play, thus resulting in a stealer on 2nd whereas a normal runner would almost certainly draw the throw, and subsequent out at 2b, thus resulting in either a double play, or a simply a runner at 1b instead of 2b.

 

overall not bad stuff, but if you make a study like this you have to take all things into account, and look at reality as oposed to theoretical runs due to the batting stats of the hitter

Edited February 6, 2006 by daa84

[G&T]

I don't know much about numbers so it's tough for me to comment, but I think he should have added wild pitches to his numbers for a disrupted pitchers rather than just hit batsmen. Maybe I'm wrong.

[chitownsportsfan]

seems like a good study...my biggest problem with it is that it neglects the fact that a base hit with a "stealer" on first will result more often in teh runner getting to third than with a normal "runner" on first. while theoretical runs created due to the hitter hitting in the study is based entirely on batting statistics of that hitter. id like to see actual runs created because i believe the fact that a stealer being on base will advance to third on more balls than a non stealer will greatly increase the number of total runs scored, especially with under 2 outs as described in teh study. Also presumably, the guys batting after the stealer, iguchi for example, are already probably going to see an increase in the pitcher being flustered because he will not want to face the 3-4 hitters with another man on. i like some of the things that are said, but its so hard to take everything into consideration. it also fails to mention the fact taht presumably with a "stealer" on base, especially int eh consideration of iguchi and castillo (who has the largest # of ABs with a stealer on) that many of teh outs that tehy produce are due to sacrifice bunts.

 

What also should be taken into account is the fact that on ground balls hit the stealer will often force the defense to take the one out at 1st instead of turning a double play, thus resulting in a stealer on 2nd whereas a normal runner would almost certainly draw the throw, and subsequent out at 2b, thus resulting in either a double play, or a simply a runner at 1b instead of 2b.

 

overall not bad stuff, but if you make a study like this you have to take all things into account, and look at reality as oposed to theoretical runs due to the batting stats of the hitter

 

 

Well, I believe he ignored all bunts in the study. He says he did anyway. I assume that means all bunts--successful or not--since he was using pbp data.

 

Are you saying that the "stealers" have a better chance to reach 3rd because they are running on the play--or because they are just faster than average?

 

I think it's a good start for a more in-depth look at how base stealers affect that game, but I wonder if more historical data was availabe, past the last few seasons. That would have greatly increased his sample size and made the study more reliable.

 

Intuition tells us that a "stealer" will distrupt the pitcher, but his data suggests that walks actually go down with a stealer on base. I wonder if the pitchers are conciously deciding to "get ahead in the count", and "make 'em hit it" with a runner on. Likewise, I wonder if the batter simply becomes less patient with a runner on. I guess we won't know until pitched ball data becomes more available, then we can see if the pitchers are more aggressive or not.

 

It's good to see the stat community exploring areas like this that give a bit of credit back to the speed and defense guys. I still a take a .380 OBP from our leadoff with 10 steals over a guy like PODS. I like PODS, but for a corner outfielder he really doesn't give much production beyond speed and average, two things not very important in run creation compared to OBP and OPS.

[RME JICO]

This quote completely discredits all that work:

So, the next time you tune into the White Sox game and Hawk Harrelson is telling you that "Scotty" Podsednik, by virtue of his ability to disrupt the pitcher, is worth more than what his statistics show, well you now know he's telling you the truth. Podsednik is worth a little over one more run per season.

 

All you have to do is watch the games to see if Pods affects the opposing pitcher. You cannot figure that out by what the guy behind the base stealer does at the plate. Those are two independent variables. The hitter might be in a hit and run situation where they have to make contact, or just trying to move the runner over. You cannot gain any information that way.

 

I also found that you can manipulate the numbers anyway you want. No wild pitches, how about pitch outs, passed balls, throws to 1st, HBP. Also, depending on the hitter, they may intentionally walk them to set up an easier double play.

 

You also cannot really equate an intangible like that to runs produced per game. It would probably be a better idea just to see how many runs a base stealer scores after they steal a base.