LosMediasBlancas Posted February 12, 2006 Share Posted February 12, 2006 http://www.suntimes.com/output/sports/cst-spt-sox12.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sayitaintso Posted February 12, 2006 Share Posted February 12, 2006 nice read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted February 12, 2006 Share Posted February 12, 2006 Pretty good article. Just states what everybody already knew. If all goes well, this is a 100 win team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 12, 2006 Share Posted February 12, 2006 QUOTE(Jordan4life_2006 @ Feb 12, 2006 -> 03:41 PM) Pretty good article. Just states what everybody already knew. If all goes well, this is a 100 win team. This team could well be a 100 win team if even if everything doesn't go well....just as long as things don't go TOO badly. If everything goes well, this team could run away and win 105+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2006 -> 05:57 PM) This team could well be a 100 win team if even if everything doesn't go well....just as long as things don't go TOO badly. If everything goes well, this team could run away and win 105+. True. The only thing I'm really worried about is if all the pitchers who had career years last year can do it again in 06. If they do, anything short of devestating injuries, and we should most definitely win 100 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnB Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Feb 12, 2006 -> 06:14 PM) Health. All that article had to be was that word. If everyone stays healthy, we go far. which is about the best any team can ever hope for to start a season. Wow, all of this positive press is just incredible. What a ride this past year and a half has been, starting with last year's offseason. Things have just been almost too positive. This season can't start soon enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 This might sound dumb but I think our only weakness is only having one lefty in the pen. I think we need a reliable lefty to go with Cotts. How can we get by with only one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 Has Moyer signed with anybody? I realize he's not a reliever and throws too soft but I was just wondering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Critic Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 I'm still a bit concerned about middle relief, and just a touch concerned about the closer. Nothing specific, just a vague worry about the possibility of "the league catching up to Jenks" and a more real concern about the state of Hermanson's back. It's very nice when these are the only real concerns I can come up with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 QUOTE(The Critic @ Feb 12, 2006 -> 09:14 PM) I'm still a bit concerned about middle relief, and just a touch concerned about the closer. Nothing specific, just a vague worry about the possibility of "the league catching up to Jenks" and a more real concern about the state of Hermanson's back. It's very nice when these are the only real concerns I can come up with. If things line up the way they are now...Middle relief is vastly stronger than it was last year...since we have a long guy. Last year, when we got into an extra inning game or a pitcher had to come out early, we had no innings eater in the bullpen beyond Viz (until Jenks came around) and the most we could get out of Viz was 2.1 innings. Now we have a guy who we can put into the 8th inning who can still be on the mound with a shutout in the 14th without a single pitching change. That's gonna be NICE. There were a few times in the middle of the season last year where the bullpen got a bit tired just because we had an extra inning game and had to use almost everyone. And I still think you can catch up with a 100 mph guy on occasion, but even if that's all he throws, he's still gonna have an ERA under 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Critic Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Feb 12, 2006 -> 11:55 PM) If it does end up being a problem, which I agree it could, there is a decent chance it could, there are always middle relief guys on the market come May-July. Like you said, its great having that being your only weakness coming into the season, if you could even call it a weakness. Good point. If we know anything about KW, he will be aggressive to address a need, no matter what point they are at in the season. It's also going to be interesting to see how Ozzie employs McCarthy. If he's going to spot start as some "experts" have indicated, that will limit his availability for a few days afterwards. If he struggles in his spot start, you still burn some middle arms and you also don't have him for a day or two at least. It can become a concern, but I'm not gonna lose sleep over it. I'll just assume ( or hope ) that Cliff repeats his tremendous season of 2005 and the starters continue burning up innings like they have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 This team could well be a 100 win team if even if everything doesn't go well....just as long as things don't go TOO badly. If everything goes well, this team could run away and win 105+. Wow, that is quite the statement. I find it much too optimisic though. I suppose 105 could happen--if everyone on the team outperforms the most optimistic predictions and no injuries occur outside of the occasional hamstring pull. However, the chance of that happening is probably less than .1 percent, which doesn't really even make it worth considering in my mind. If this team played 100 seasons I think they would win 105 about once. As of now (and its very early) I see a team that wins 94 games and either ends up as the central champ (in a very tight race with the Indians) or the wild-card. I've read too many good studies of the 2005 Sox and 2006 by people I respect that suggest that while the Sox were a worthy and great champion--they did have alot of things go very, very right. Some might say they were lucky. I say good and lucky. I don't care personally, I don't get upset when people write that the Sox were lucky; I just care that they are World Champions and a great team. I don't think that the bullpen will be nearly as good this year as it was last year. I also don't think that the record in 1 run games will be anywhere near what it was last year. Yet the offense is clearly better on paper, and the starting pitching figures to about the same or maybe just slightly worse. Injuries to more than one starter will be devastating, and it does happen from time to time. Not to say it will, just that the Sox don't have the offense to support many injuries to their starters. Probably only the Yankees do, and their pitching sucks even when healthy, so that is their only option. I see Crede, Uribe and Iguchi having better seasons OPS wise, and Kong, Dye, Pods, AJ and Anderson to perform slightly worse as a group than last season. The big wild card is of course Thome. I give him around 450 AB's and .930 OPS--a huge improvement over Frank and Carl. The bench is another clear area of improvement, and I think the bench will be the biggest improvement of the 2006 Sox, as Timo and Ozuna combined for such suckiness last year that Mack, Ozuna and Borchard will probably seem like the '27 Yankees. I really hope Tribe fans don't get ahold of that 105 quote, I fear what they could do with it if the Sox fall on their face and only win say--92 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Feb 13, 2006 -> 03:23 PM) Wow, that is quite the statement. I find it much too optimisic though. I suppose 105 could happen--if everyone on the team outperforms the most optimistic predictions and no injuries occur outside of the occasional hamstring pull. However, the chance of that happening is probably less than .1 percent, which doesn't really even make it worth considering in my mind. If this team played 100 seasons I think they would win 105 about once. The statement was "If everything goes well". That removes a lot of the bad things when you make that assumption. That means you're assuming Crede doens't regress due to his back, Thome has a Thome-like year, our bullpen holds together, and our starting pitching doesn't backtrack. Assuming everything goes well automatically excludes things like Thome, Konerko, or Buehrle spending significant time on the DL, hitting .220, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted February 13, 2006 Share Posted February 13, 2006 Yea, you did qualify your statement with "if"--but I still think that "if" is so unlikely to happen that we shouldn't even factor it into our predictions--unless of course we want to be wildly disapointed and wrong. I don't think your post said anything wrong, I just think it needed context. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 I would agree that the "ceiling" for this years staff is def higher than last years. But I don't think the "mean" projection is. Vasquez is a huge upgrade over last years Bmac and Duque. But unfortunetly some improvement out of the 5th starter isn't likely to overcome what I see as likely regression from Jon G and Buehrle. Buehrle was great last year, and his W/L record doesn't shot it. His peripherials had him as top 3 in the AL easy. I peg him as top 10 in the AL this year, nothing to shake a stick at, but not elite category. Very Good yes, but not elite like 2005. Jon G I see coming back down to earth and posting something around a 4.00 ERA, good numbers, but not as good as 2005 again. I should say that I think there is a slight chance the pitching staff outperforms last years, but a slightly greater chance that they underperform from last year. Also, the 'ceiling" on this group is much higher than last year. If Vasquez has a great year, (and that possibility is another thread and post in and of itself) then I agree, this staff will be hand down the best in baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nitetrain8601 Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Feb 13, 2006 -> 06:04 PM) I would agree that the "ceiling" for this years staff is def higher than last years. But I don't think the "mean" projection is. Vasquez is a huge upgrade over last years Bmac and Duque. But unfortunetly some improvement out of the 5th starter isn't likely to overcome what I see as likely regression from Jon G and Buehrle. Buehrle was great last year, and his W/L record doesn't shot it. His peripherials had him as top 3 in the AL easy. I peg him as top 10 in the AL this year, nothing to shake a stick at, but not elite category. Very Good yes, but not elite like 2005. Jon G I see coming back down to earth and posting something around a 4.00 ERA, good numbers, but not as good as 2005 again. I should say that I think there is a slight chance the pitching staff outperforms last years, but a slightly greater chance that they underperform from last year. Also, the 'ceiling" on this group is much higher than last year. If Vasquez has a great year, (and that possibility is another thread and post in and of itself) then I agree, this staff will be hand down the best in baseball. And you also don't take into account the improvements made by Contreras. I think he will pick up the dropoff. And I don't understand how our starting rotation projects to be the same if not slightly worse when we've upgraded the weakest spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 And I don't understand how our starting rotation projects to be the same if not slightly worse when we've upgraded the weakest spot. Regression to the mean. I honestly don't think Contreras will be much better or worse than he was over the course of 2005. One half magical half season will not convince me that he has completely cured his control problems. Maybe Don Cooper is a pitching coach god--I'll glady eat crow if he is. However, lacking statistical evidence to support that, I'll hold off on expecting it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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