Uribe hitting in the 2 hole thoughts

[whitesoxfan101]

Ok, the Uribe to the 2 slot/Iguchi to 6 or 7 slot batting order shift is one of the biggest stories about the team going into this season. Now, these are my thoughts. Last year, Juan had a .252/.301 BA and OBP split. Now I'm not a moneyball gospel believer, but a .301 OBP for a 2 hitter is horrible and would cost us victories in comparison to Iguchi's much higher .278/.342 split last year (and mind you, that's INCLUDING all the at bats he gave himself up for Pods in).

 

Uribe's BA last year was 10 points below his lifetime average. I assume that a positive of Uribe hitting 2nd would be he would see more fastballs to hit with Pods in front of him and the imposing trio of Dye, Thome, and Konerko (in no particular order) behind him. So say, Uribe can get his average up about 20 points this year with that in mind. Also, Uribe's OBP to BA split was 49 last year, as opposed to 43 in his career. So let's say Uribe can do that again next year and get the split up to 55.

 

Combine those 2 things, and you could get these numbers as a BA/OBP split: .272/.327. Now while those aren't exactly great for a 2 hitter, but you combine that with our leadoff man being very good, our 3-5 possibly being one of the best in the game, and the fact we will have a more powerful and still good BA/OBP guy in Iguchi all the way down at 6 or 7, along with Uribe's speed and bunting ability, and I think this move could be beneficial to the team.

 

I am very interested to see how this situation works itself out, because each side of this argument has a very legit point. And if you read all of that nonsense and understood it, your my hero.

[RockRaines]

Uribe in the #2 spot

.285 .331 .515 .846

 

Gooch in the #2 spot

 

.274 .338 .434 .772

[whitesoxfan101]

Uribe in the #2 spot

.285 .331 .515 .846

 

Gooch in the #2 spot

 

.274 .338 .434 .772

 

Is that lifetime or just last year? (obviously Gooch was a rookie, but you see my point). How many AB's do each guy have in the 2 spot that lead to those stats? Just curious.

Edited February 14, 2006 by whitesoxfan101

[RockRaines]

Is that lifetime or just last year? (obviously Gooch was a rookie, but you see my point).  How many AB's do each guy have in the 2 spot that lead to those stats?  Just curious.

Gooch had 507 at bats

Uribes was from 2004 260 at bats, he has around 585 career at bats in the 2 hole.

[whitesoxfan101]

Gooch had 507 at bats

Uribes was from 2004 260 at bats, he has around 585 career at bats in the 2 hole.

 

Alrighty. Well I believe a lot of those Uribe numbers were padded during his amazing 2004 start of the season while he hit 2nd, but that's still a very interesting stat.

[SSH2005]

Alrighty.  Well I believe a lot of those Uribe numbers were padded during his amazing 2004 start of the season while he hit 2nd, but that's still a very interesting stat.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep...

 

Juan Uribe (career stats batting 2nd): 584 AB's | .269 AVG | .321 OBP | .433 SLG | .755 OPS

[Balta1701]

The one thing I keep hoping is that Uribe will have to learn to do what Iguchi learned to do last year...be patient and drive the ball the other way.

 

Uribe was doing terrible last year when he was swinging at every pitch and trying to pull everything. When he got hot, he added that leg lift, took a few more pitches, and had his timing better where he could drive the ball to all fields instead of just trying to pull everything.

 

Last year, because Pods was on base so often, Iguchi got used to hitting everything to the opposite field so that Pods could get himself from first to 3rd on a hit, and he wound up taking some extra pitches so Scotty would get the chance to run. With what we've seen from Uribe before, if he could focus on doing those 2 things (Maybe with some adjustments to his swing and batting stance, i hope), then he might be able to really have success in that slot. And oh yeah, hitting before JT won't hurt.

 

He could be a miserable failure too, but I'm just going to hope for the best.

[RockRaines]

Alrighty.  Well I believe a lot of those Uribe numbers were padded during his amazing 2004 start of the season while he hit 2nd, but that's still a very interesting stat.

Yeah but adding in his career stats would skew it the other way because he was a reserve in Col.

[whitesoxfan101]

Yep...

 

Juan Uribe (career stats batting 2nd):  584 AB's  |  .269 AVG  |  .321 OBP  |  .433 SLG  |  .755 OPS

 

Ha, that BA and OBP are almost the exact numbers I put in the first post of this thread. Go me.

[ZoomSlowik]

I have a bad feeling about Juan in the two hole. We all complain so much about how he swings at too many pitches and can't make contact, now he's moving to a spot in the order where those problems hurt even more. I hope it works out, but I liked what Iguchi gave us in the 2 hole last year.

[SSH2005]

Yeah but adding in his career stats would skew it the other way because he was a reserve in Col.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

With the Rockies, Uribe started 67 games in 2001, 150 games in 2002, and 80 games in 2003.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stat...ontext=fielding

 

So Uribe was actually a full-time starter for the Rockies in 2002.

[RockRaines]

With the Rockies, Uribe started 67 games in 2001, 150 games in 2002, and 80 games in 2003.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stat...ontext=fielding

 

So Uribe was actually a full-time starter for the Rockies in 2002.

thanks for the info jabroni, but I really wasnt researching how many games he started.

[SSH2005]

Uribe was a full-time starter with the Rockies in 2002. He was mostly a reserve with the Rockies in 2001 and 2003. That's all I was trying to say.

Edited February 14, 2006 by SSH2005

[whitesoxfan101]

I have a bad feeling about Juan in the two hole. We all complain so much about how he swings at too many pitches and can't make contact, now he's moving to a spot in the order where those problems hurt even more. I hope it works out, but I liked what Iguchi gave us in the 2 hole last year.

 

To be honest, I tend to agree. But I figured i'd try and put a positive spin on it and show the side of why we are thinking about trying this. Juan's .252 BA and .301 OBP last year keeps making me want to cry though.

[Felix]

Batting second behind Pods and before Thome and Paulie, Uribe will get many more fastballs than he will later in the order. Since he's a damn good fastball hitter, and did show his patience at the plate at the end of last year, I think he will do a fine job batting second.

[SSH2005]

Batting second behind Pods and before Thome and Paulie, Uribe will get many more fastballs than he will later in the order.  Since he's a damn good fastball hitter, and did show his patience at the plate at the end of last year, I think he will do a fine job batting second.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This and the fact that Uribe is a pretty good bunter are the main reasons for hope.

[Drew]

If it works, it works, and if it doesn't, Ozzie will fix it. This was a man who didn't use the same lineup for more than three days in a row during the regular season. The only sure things last regular season were Podsednik-Iguchi going 1-2 and Konerko at clean-up.

 

We've seen what Iguchi can do as a rookie at no. 2 and I thought it was pretty impressive for a MLB rookie.

 

Those are the most prototypical no. 2's we have. The other two guys that I think of who could do well in the no. 2 slot would be Crede and Pierzynski. However, that spot would be a waste of Crede's production if we've seen the real Joe Crede and Pierzynski, though a smart baserunner, does not have the speed to be dangerous.

[3E8]

I have a bad feeling about Juan in the two hole. We all complain so much about how he swings at too many pitches and can't make contact, now he's moving to a spot in the order where those problems hurt even more. I hope it works out, but I liked what Iguchi gave us in the 2 hole last year.

Agreed. Uribe's got a career .305 OBP playing in some hitter-friendly parks. He should not be our two-hitter until he proves he can get on base consistently.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I'm pretty cool with the idea. Ozzie has made it clear he won't wait long to switch back if Uribe proves he can't handle it. The rewards that would come with Uribe proving he can handle the 2 slot is well worth giving this a try.

[sircaffey]

Fine by me. Uribe really only is a "#2 hitter" for 1 AB per game. After that, he's just a fastball hitter stuck between a 70 SB guy and a 50 HR guy. Not to mention, Gooch can rake down in the order. Pretty much no holes in the lineup. If Uribe can get back to 2004, our lineup will be sick.

[SSH2005]

Fine by me.  Uribe really only is a "#2 hitter" for 1 AB per game.  After that, he's just a fastball hitter stuck between a 70 SB guy and a 50 HR guy.  Not to mention, Gooch can rake down in the order.  Pretty much no holes in the lineup.  If Uribe can get back to 2004, our lineup will be sick.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But you want guys with good OBP's in front of your best homerun hitters. Pods qualifies, Uribe doesn't.

[sircaffey]

But you want guys with good OBP's in front of your best homerun hitters.  Pods qualifies, Uribe doesn't.

 

True. However, I do think Uribe will get a boost from hitting there. That's not unreasonable to think. Will the payoff of a dip in OBP in the 2 hole (Iguchi to Uribe) be made up with Iguchi being able to let go hitting in a power position? Uribe will improve by hitting behind Pods and in front of Thome, most likely, and Iguchi will definitely improve hitting in an RBI position.

 

One of Uribe's main problems in the past has been a lack of concentration. Uribe will be forced to focus hitting behind Pods. I think its going to work out. He certainly has enough talent to more than handle it.

[SSH2005]

True.  However, I do think Uribe will get a boost from hitting there.  That's not unreasonable to think.  Will the payoff of a dip in OBP in the 2 hole (Iguchi to Uribe) be made up with Iguchi being able to let go hitting in a power position?  Uribe will improve by hitting behind Pods and in front of Thome, most likely, and Iguchi will definitely improve hitting in an RBI position.

 

One of Uribe's main problems in the past has been a lack of concentration.  Uribe will be forced to focus hitting behind Pods.  I think its going to work out.  He certainly has enough talent to more than handle it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think Uribe could get back to around a .325 OBP. He had a .327 OBP in 2004 and a .325 OBP after the All-Star break last season. That would be a great OBP to get from Uribe to go along with his power but it's still not high enough for me to want to see him batting second. I hope it works out though.

[SSH2005]

The one thing thats nice about the whole thing is that Oz has the luxury of going back to a good #2 hitter if Juan doesnt work out.

 

I really dont know what to expect out of Juan this season. On one hand, it could make him a more disiplined hitter, but on the other hand, that isnt what Uribe really is, so it could be a huge mistake.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The ironic thing is that Uribe's numbers may actually be better if he is swinging away while batting second because we know he will likely see more fastballs batting behind Podsednik and before Thome. But Ozzie will want Uribe to bunt more and move Podsednik over which will hurt his overall numbers. By the way, your sig is a sickening flash from the past. I have tried to forget the Koch era.

[chitownsportsfan]

Here comes my insanely long and detailed statcentric reply.

 

First, to use Uribe's line in 2004 when he had 260 AB's in the 2 hole is silly. 260 AB's is not enough to get any sort of strong conclusion about a player.

 

Lets say that Juan's last two seasons with the White Sox are a decent prediction of what he will in 2006.

 

2005:

 

.252 .301 .412 .713

 

2004:

 

.283 .327 .506 .833

 

Now, lets look at little deeper into the statistics and see what the cause for Uribe's sudden collapse in 2005 might have been caused by. Was Juan unlucky? Or was he lucky in 2004?

 

 

 

Batting average balls on balls play is a great statistic because it represents the amount of luck a player had in a given year. Obviously, some playes get more than their share of "seeing eye singles" and "ducksnorts"--and some get less. It also can be coupled with line drive data to see if a player is a really excellent hitter, or just got really lucky. Obviously players who hit alot of line drive's have higher BABIP and thus higher AVG, OPS, etc. If you to to:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...age=7&type=full

 

You can see very clearly that Uribe's BABIB was higher than expected in 2004 and lower than expected in 2005. In other words, Juan was lucky in 2004 and unlucky in 2005. I'd expect 2006 to fall somewhere in the middle. Notive that the nearly .030 change in BABIP corresponds very well to the change in Juan's batting average change from the same years. Juan didn't become any better or any worse at hitting for average--it was simple luck that made a big difference. Aren't stats interesting?

 

Now, say that Juan's BABIP returns to around .300 this year. (which is very close to the league average). So raise his OBP by 20 points from last year and his slugging an additional twenty points. This give us .321 for an OBP.

 

Of course, OBP is also influenced by a hitters control of the strike zone. Here, there is reason to be optimistic about Uribe's OBP and his hitting in general.

 

If you go here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs%5C454_batt...ll_20051002.png

 

You see that Juan is steadily becoming a more patient hitter. This is obviously a good thing. I'd say we can expect the trend to continue, and so lets put .321 to .335 as a projected range for Uribe. (notice the lack of anything resembling a regression equation here--leave that for the serious nerds, or at least those with more energy and time for this stuff)

 

Iguchi put up a .342 OPB last year. His BABIP was roughly .320, which not having data from Japan, I can't project to drop or rise. I'd bet on a modest drop, as Iguchi seems to hit a fair number of line drives, so lets say it falls 10 points and his OBP falls to .332. Not great, but still better than what Uribe projects.

 

Now, those are just my amateur half-assed calculations.

 

PECOTA, BP's mundo projection service, projects Uribe for 267 .315 .448, which seems pretty close to what I just projected. Pecota and I both think Juan will never be on on-base guy. As a fielder and decent pop from SS guy, he is a godsend. I love Juan, he just isn't going to be a good number two hitter.

 

Just for sheets and giggles, here is the PECOTA for Gooch:

 

275 .346 .420

 

While above average for a 2B, and nothing to shake a stick at, I'd put the OBP slightly lower .340 say, and the slugging higher, up around .450, for a .790 OPS.

 

I don't buy into the whole "let Iguchi swing away down low in the order". Iguchi is a better relative contact hitter than Iguchi, and Juan is the better relative power hitter. To confuse that would be run scoring suicide during this season.

 

Another interesting stat is that Juan's G/F ratio in both 2004 and 2005 was .83. Gooch's in 2005 was 1.46! That in a nutshell is the difference between the two, something that basic subjective observation tells us: Juan is a free swinging bomber and Gooch is a disciplined contact hitter. Was it caused by their place in the order. Perhaps, but to me that is to against both subjective intuition and objective statistical analysis.

Edited February 15, 2006 by chitownsportsfan