Uribe hitting in the 2 hole thoughts

[Jordan4life_2007]

Here comes my insanely long and detailed statcentric reply.

 

First, to use Uribe's line in 2004 when he had 260 AB's in the 2 hole is silly.  260 AB's is not enough to get any sort of strong conclusion about a player. 

 

Lets say that Juan's last two seasons with the White Sox are a decent prediction of what he will in 2006.

 

2005:

 

.252  .301  .412  .713

 

2006:

 

.283  .327  .506  .833

 

Now, lets look at little deeper into the statistics and see what the cause for Uribe's sudden collapse in 2005 might have been caused by.  Was Juan unlucky?  Or was he lucky in 2004?

 

Batting average balls on balls play is a great statistic because it represents the amount of luck a player had in a given year.  Obviously, some playes get more than their share of "seeing eye singles" and "ducksnorts"--and some get less.  It also can be coupled with line drive data to see if a player is a really excellent hitter, or just got really lucky.  Obviously players who hit alot of line drive's have higher BABIP and thus higher AVG, OPS, etc.  If you to to:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...age=7&type=full

 

You can see very clearly that Uribe's BABIB was higher than expected in 2004 and lower than expected in 2005.  In other words, Juan was lucky in 2004 and unlucky in 2005.  I'd expect 2006 to fall somewhere in the middle.  Notive that the nearly .030 change in BABIP corresponds very well to the change in Juan's batting average change from the same years.  Juan didn't become any better or any worse at hitting for average--it was simple luck that made a big difference.  Aren't stats interesting?

 

Now, say that Juan's BABIP returns to around .300 this year.  (which is very close to the league average).  So raise his OBP by 20 points from last year and his slugging an additional twenty points.  This give us .321 for an OBP. 

 

Of course, OBP is also influenced by a hitters control of the strike zone.  Here, there is reason to be optimistic about Uribe's OBP and his hitting in general.

 

If you go here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs%5C454_batt...ll_20051002.png

 

You see that Juan is steadily becoming a more patient hitter.  This is obviously a good thing.  I'd say we can expect the trend to continue, and so lets put .321 to .335 as a projected range for Uribe.  (notice the lack of anything resembling a regression equation here--leave that for the serious nerds, or at least those with more energy and time for this stuff)

 

Iguchi put up a .342 OPB last year.  His BABIP was roughly .320, which not having data from Japan, I can't project to drop or rise.  I'd bet on a modest drop, as Iguchi seems to hit a fair number of line drives, so lets say it falls 10 points and his OBP falls to .332.  Not great, but still better than what Uribe projects.

 

Now, those are just my amateur half-assed calculations.

 

PECOTA, BP's mundo projection service, projects Uribe for 267  .315  .448, which seems pretty close to what I just projected.  Pecota and I both think Juan will never be on on-base guy.  As a fielder and decent pop from SS guy, he is a godsend.  I love Juan, he just isn't going to be a good number two hitter.

 

Just for sheets and giggles, here is the PECOTA for Gooch:

 

275  .346  .420 

 

While above average for a 2B, and nothing to shake a stick at, I'd put the OBP slightly lower .340 say, and the slugging higher, up around .450, for a .790 OPS.

 

I don't buy into the whole "let Iguchi swing away down low in the order".  Iguchi is a better relative contact hitter than Iguchi, and Juan is the better relative power hitter.  To confuse that would be run scoring suicide during this season.

 

Um, I'll trust Ozzie.

[chitownsportsfan]

Um, I'll trust Ozzie

 

Ok, so first move he makes you disagree with I want an explanation. It can involve the sun and moon, but I need something.

Edited February 15, 2006 by chitownsportsfan

[Rowand44]

I was opposed to it at first cause I love gooch in the 2 hole but now I think it's worth a shot. Juan has proved time and time again that he's a much better hitter when he has a job to do, he stays on the ball more and tries to drive it to rf when he needs to. He wil now have to do that a lot more and not only could he do a good job, there's a good shot his personal stats will raise a ton, though I couldn't care less about that aspect. If it doesn't work out, then ozzie just goes back to gooch.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Ok, so first move he makes you disagree with I want an explanation.  It can involve the sun and moon, but I need something.

 

What part of "if Uribe shows he can't handle the 2 slot Ozzie will switch them back" don't people understand? Ozzie is no fool.

[SSH2005]

I just don't see how Uribe is suddenly going to become a high enough OBP guy to make it work. His season high OBP was .327 in 2004 (.331 as a #2 hitter). That's great from Uribe but not good enough for a #2 hitter. This is why that Twins pickup of Luis Castillo was really underrated. Obviously, we had no place for Castillo but a .370 OBP looks damn good from the 2-hole.

Edited February 15, 2006 by SSH2005

[chitownsportsfan]

Exactly SSH2005. Any OBP the Sox get from defensive wizard and good power Uribe (for position) should be considered gravy. To expect different and try and make him something he isn't would be foolish.

 

I really hope KW realizes this and convinces Ozzie to just say no on this one. And I don't care how spring training pans out. Spring training is for finding your 4th outfielder and 12th pitcher, not for making major changes to your batting order and starting lineup. Not unless you're the Royals anyway.

[AngelasDaddy0427]

I doubt Ozzie even remembers saying any of this s*** by the time the season starts... Before you know it we will be back to the revolving lineup...

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Statistics aside, I dont want to see Uribe batting 2nd. A free swinger like him doesn't need to be batting second in any lineup.

[3E8]

What part of "if Uribe shows he can't handle the 2 slot Ozzie will switch them back" don't people understand?  Ozzie is no fool.

Baseball is a game of inches. Don't go with something that doesn't really make sense and could potentially cost us wins.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Baseball is a game of inches.  Don't go with something that doesn't really make sense and could potentially cost us wins.

 

I get that. I just don't believe this particular experiment is so risky not to give it a try.

[chitownsportsfan]

Statistics aside, I dont want to see Uribe batting 2nd. A free swinger like him doesn't need to be batting second in any lineup.

 

Whenever stats and traditional scouting ("free swinger") agree it almost always means a correct reading.

 

This is a real no brainer imo--Uribe bats down in the order.

[CWSGuy406]

I get that.  I just don't believe this particular experiment is so risky not to give it a try.

 

So what's Spring Training going to prove? Seriously -- it doesn't mean a whole lot. If Uribe hits .500 hitting in the #2 spot in Arizona, it'll make me no more or less confident than if he hits .100.

 

Juan put up a .344/.412/.525 last year in Tuscon. If he does that this year, what exactly will that prove?

 

It's a sticky situation that probably won't mean a whole lot in the long run. Switching Uribe/Iguchi in the lineup might mean a run here, a run there, but in the end, not enough to get worked up over.

[Jordan4life_2007]

So what's Spring Training going to prove?  Seriously -- it doesn't mean a whole lot.  If Uribe hits .500 hitting in the #2 spot in Arizona, it'll make me no more or less confident than if he hits .100. 

 

Juan put up a .344/.412/.525 last year in Tuscon.  If he does that this year, what exactly will that prove?

 

It's a sticky situation that probably won't mean a whole lot in the long run.  Switching Uribe/Iguchi in the lineup might mean a run here, a run there, but in the end, not enough to get worked up over.

 

The idea is to give Gooch a chance to be the power hitter/run producer he was in Japan. I don't think Ozzie would even consider the switch if he didn't think Gooch could legitimately hit 20+ homers and knock in anywhere from 90-100 runs. If he's right, combined with a healthy Thome, they're a top 3 offense in the al. That's a pretty big jump from last year. I'm not saying I'll be convinced if Uribe tears it up in spring training. It will be encouraging, but he would obviously have to prove he could do it when it counts. I just can't see the harm in trying it out for a couple weeks. If Uribe blows, make the switch.

[Rowand44]

This move gives you a higher ceiling for the lineup if Juan could adjust well enough. Gooch can become a run producer and a pretty potent one at that. Juan has always been much, much better when he has a job to do. He was near the top of the league in sac flys last year iirc and when he has a job to do, not only does he stay on the ball and drive it to rf, he's also more patient at the plate. You might see a whole new Juan in the 2 hole or at worst Juan is the same free swinger he's been in the past, our gm and manager realize this and the switch is made quickly.

[chitownsportsfan]

at worst Juan is the same free swinger he's been in the past, our gm and manager realize this and the switch is made quickly.

 

Quizas. Then again, games in April count as much as Games in September when all is said and done.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Quizas.  Then again, games in April count as much as Games in September when all is said and done.

 

If we start out let's say 8-8, I don't think it will be because of Uribe hitting second.

Edited February 15, 2006 by Jordan4life_2006

[Rowand44]

Quizas.  Then again, games in April count as much as Games in September when all is said and done.

Yes they do, and I believe the lineup with Juan 2nd and Tad down in the order could be better then the other way around. Tad is going to be a better overall hitter down in the order, so at worst we get a much better Tad for a little while. Whether stats back it up or not, there is definitely a possiblity that Juan can be a good number 2 hitter. He's a fantastic fastball hitter, and he's going to see less junk with Pods on base, and like I mentioned before Juan was up there in sac flys last year, he's arguably our best bunter, he's very good at giving himself up. I honestly don't see to much of a downside here.

[chitownsportsfan]

The thing is, I agree that Gooch will produce better down in the order. However, I don't think he's going to become enough better to warrant moving Uribe into the number two position.

 

Lets face it, the Sox are not a good OBP team. They rely on run prevention and the long ball, which netted a championship. Uribe does a good job at run prevention and is unlikely to be good at much more. It makes more sense efficiency wise to play to your strenghts. Gooch is one of the few decent OBP guys the Sox have, he must bat high.

[AirScott]

So what's Spring Training going to prove?  Seriously -- it doesn't mean a whole lot.  If Uribe hits .500 hitting in the #2 spot in Arizona, it'll make me no more or less confident than if he hits .100. 

 

Juan put up a .344/.412/.525 last year in Tuscon.  If he does that this year, what exactly will that prove?

 

It's a sticky situation that probably won't mean a whole lot in the long run.  Switching Uribe/Iguchi in the lineup might mean a run here, a run there, but in the end, not enough to get worked up over.

Ozzie won't be looking at stats during this spring experiment. he will be looking at if/how Uribe changes his approah hitting second. will Uribe take more pitches or make more productive outs? there'll be more to it than just OBP.

[chitownsportsfan]

will Uribe take more pitches or make more productive outs? there'll be more to it than just OBP.

 

OK, well I for one hope Ozzie looks at:

p/pa

k/bb

babip

 

Then I hope he throws all those stats out due to small sample size and the level of spring training compeition.

[SSH2005]

Ozzie won't be looking at stats during this spring experiment.  he will be looking at if/how Uribe changes his approah hitting second.  will Uribe take more pitches or make more productive outs?  there'll be more to it than just OBP.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unfortunately, Uribe's OBP is more important than his ability to make productive outs when it comes to scoring runs.

[Rowand44]

OK, well I for one hope Ozzie looks at:

p/pa

k/bb

babip

 

Then I hope he throws all those stats out due to small sample size and the level of spring training compeition.

If ozzie ever uses babip, I will chop my head off.

[SSH2005]

OK, well I for one hope Ozzie looks at:

p/pa

k/bb

babip

 

Then I hope he throws all those stats out due to small sample size and the level of spring training compeition.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ozzie will look at the first two but he probably thinks that babip is just some strange English word that he's never seen before. I doubt that any manager uses babip in evaluating his players.

Edited February 15, 2006 by SSH2005

[chitownsportsfan]

Ozzie thinks "BABIP" is a Uribespeak for "more sunflower seeds"

 

You think Bobby Cox might use it? I think Ozzie is a great manager for every reason having to do with corny things like unity and leadership, but only average when it comes to statistical optimization. Fortunetly, it's a pretty weak playing field for both categories.

[YASNY]

Uribe was a more patient hitter toward the end of the season and through the playoffs. Whether this carries over to '06 or not is the question. Sometimes, that kind of discipline just comes with experience. Uribe may have reached that point in his career where he is a smarter, more patient hitter than he has been. If so, this #2 thing has a chance to work because Uribe would then be a different type of hitter than what we saw in '04 and most of '05.