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On paper ...


TLAK

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After a winter of trades and signings how do teams stack up 'on paper'? I used the rosters from the MLB Rosters thread and added each batter's 2005 runs scored and each pitcher's runs allowed. I normalized each team using MLB averages for team AB and IP and added them up to estimate the number of runs scored and runs allowed by the current members of the roster. Then I applied the venerated Bill James Pythagorean theory to the results to come up with the chart below.

 

 

 

It says look for a dogfight in the AL Central, the Brewers will surprise, the Cardinals will disappoint and nobody will win in the NL West. Wild cards go the A's and Astros.

 

 

 

AL Central
Team Runs Runs Allow PagPct W L GB
White Sox 755 665 .557 90 72 ..
Indians 792 713 .548 88 74 2
Twins 704 645 .540 87 75 3
Tigers 731 765 .479 77 85 13
Royals 688 874 .392 63 99 27
AL East
Team Runs Runs Allow PagPct W L GB
Yankees 893 742 .584 94 68 ..
Red Sox 797 713 .551 89 73 5
Blue Jays 745 661 .555 89 73 5
Orioles 716 770 .467 75 87 19
Devil Rays 716 955 .371 60 102 34
AL West
Team Runs Runs Allow PagPct W L GB
Angels 745 632 .574 93 69 ..
A's 776 682 .559 90 72 3
Rangers 819 781 .522 84 78 9
Mariners 731 727 .503 81 81 12
NL Central
Team Runs Runs Allow PagPct W L GB
Brewers 752 641 .572 92 70 ..
Astros 721 634 .559 90 72 2
Cubs 739 692 .530 85 77 7
Cardinals 746 715 .520 84 78 8
Reds 806 841 .480 77 85 15
Pirates 701 769 .458 74 88 18
NL East
Team Runs Runs Allow PagPct W L GB
Braves 786 694 .556 90 72 ..
Phillies 791 728 .538 87 75 3
Mets 728 715 .508 82 80 8
Marlins 746 738 .505 81 81 9
Nationals 691 737 .471 76 86 14
NL West
Team Runs Runs Allow PagPct W L GB
Dodgers 757 771 .492 79 83 ..
Rockies 773 855 .454 73 89 6
Padres 711 794 .450 72 90 7
Giants 664 770 .433 70 92 9
Diamondbacks 710 820 .434 70 92 9
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This is nice for speculation, but I don't put a lot of weight on statistical speculation.

Baseball has so many intanigbles that I think it's very tough to try to predict anything.

Interesting chart, though - surprised to see the Cardinals speculated to finish 4th.

I certainly don't see the Brew Crew as being better than the Sox. 92 wins is VERY optimistic for Milwaukee. They'll be pretty damn good, but 92 wins? I'd be stunned.

Edited by The Critic
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QUOTE(The Critic @ Feb 19, 2006 -> 10:34 AM)
This is nice for speculation, but I don't put a lot of weight on statistical speculation.

Baseball has so many intanigbles that I think it's very tough to try to predict anything.

Interesting chart, though - surprised to see the Cardinals speculated to finish 4th.

I certainly don't see the Brew Crew as being better than the Sox. 92 wins is VERY optimistic for Milwaukee. They'll be pretty damn good, but 92 wins? I'd be stunned.

Agreed. Everyday in baseball is a new day and these are past results pasted on to the future. It did kill a couple hours on a very, very cold morning though.

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QUOTE(jackie hayes @ Feb 19, 2006 -> 11:51 AM)
Seriously, though, how did you treat young players?  Does a pitcher who was only up for a month at the end only count for those end-of-season runs?

 

 

^^^

 

To me, this, and players who were injured last year(Jim Thome is screaming bloody murder) are the majors downsides to this. If you can put in some projected numbers for some of these players, then I think you're on to something.

 

I don't view the Sox as 9 games worse when KW did nothing but improve the overall team.

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QUOTE(wilmot825 @ Feb 19, 2006 -> 12:31 PM)
I actually agree with the Brewers finishing 1st

not me, not quite yet...i still need to see hardy weeks and fielder longer in the bigs, but if they develop this year and all have strong years and their pitching stays healthy they have as good a shot as anyone

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QUOTE(Felix @ Feb 19, 2006 -> 10:38 AM)
Actually, those are all of the division winners that I picked with the exception of the Angels in the West.  Nice job putting this together :)

 

That's a fact which puts this analysis' credibility in it's proper perspective.

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The best and worst teams always defy these predictions by a great deal. Factors such as a good or poor bullpen, 1 run games record, etc. can throw these WAY off. Last year, the White Sox were something like +11 or +12 on their predicted Pythagorean Record (meaning they got 11 or 12 more wins more than that formula predicted). If they were to do that again this year, they'd win over 100 games, but that would mean they'd have to get another great year from the pen and win about 2/3 of their 1 run games again.

Edited by Dam8610
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