SSH2005 Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?...me=olney_buster Valuing Productive Outs posted: Sunday, February 26, 2006 A couple of years ago, the Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN started tracking productive outs -- the number of times that a batter advanced a runner with zero or one outs, or drove in a run with one out. There were some interesting totals from last year -- some illuminating, some not; a Molina led each league in the percentage of outs used to advance runners (given the situation). In general, the numbers reflect the ability of the hitters to put the ball in play. All the players in the big leagues with 25 or more productive outs: Tadahito Iguchi, White Sox, 32 Luis Castillo, Florida 31 Omar Vizquel, S.F. 31 Coco Crisp, Clev. 29 Edgar Renteria, Boston, 28 Juan Uribe, White Sox, 27 Johnny Damon, Boston, 27 Miguel Cabrera, Florida, 27 Russ Adams, Toronto, 26 Randy Winn, Sea.-S.F. 25 Darin Erstad, Angels, 25 Jack Wilson, Pitt., 25 Top 5 Productive Out Pct., AL (Minimum 40 attempts) Bengie Molina, L.A., .522 Juan Uribe, White Sox, .509 David DeJesus, K.C., .488 Johnny Damon, Boston, .482 Russ Adams, Tor., .456 Top 5 POP, NL (Minimum 40 attempts) Yadier Molina, St. Louis, .500 Luis Castillo, Fla., .492 Miguel Cairo, Mets, .488 Abraham Nunez, St. Louis, .450 David Eckstein, St. Louis, .444 Top 5 National League, Total San Francisco, 211 Atlanta, 208 St. Louis, 205 San Diego, 205 Washington, 204 Florida, 204 Top 5 American League, Total L.A. Angels, 187 Minnesota, 184 Detroit, 184 Boston, 184 Kansas City, 183 Some baseball executives like the stat and believe it gives them a window into one part of what players do with their at-bats; the SABR world judges its value as somewhere between useless and less than useless. This is probably a big reason why the Sox think that Uribe can handle the #2 role. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Feb 27, 2006 -> 01:58 PM) http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?...me=olney_buster This is probably a big reason why the Sox think that Uribe can handle the #2 role. that actually really makes sense. even if his regular numbers arent unbelievable he gets the job done. i think he'll make a good fit in the 2 hole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 i for one am really really stoked about this line up shuffle... i think its going to be like having 2 diffrent hitters on our club... in a mutualy benifital way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retro1983hat Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 True, but just look at who led the league. Gooch himself. As much as I want to see him free-swinging, he was invaluable in the #2 hole. Oh well, we'll see how it goes. I am so damn excited about this year. So excited that I am actually a little scared about a flop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSH2005 Posted February 27, 2006 Author Share Posted February 27, 2006 (edited) True, but just look at who led the league. Gooch himself. As much as I want to see him free-swinging, he was invaluable in the #2 hole. Oh well, we'll see how it goes. I am so damn excited about this year. So excited that I am actually a little scared about a flop. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> True. Iguchi still put up a good OBP while batting second. Who knows if Uribe can actually do that. Productive outs is one thing, OBP is even more important in the #2 spot. Edited February 27, 2006 by SSH2005 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Feb 27, 2006 -> 12:45 PM) True. Iguchi still put up a good OBP while batting second. Who knows if Uribe can actually do that. Productive outs is one thing, OBP is even more important in the #2 spot. Then again, we also don't have a good way right now to estimate whether getting increased power production from Iguchi might make up for a decrease in OBP from the #2 hole, if productive outs were to remain constant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 QUOTE(retro1983hat @ Feb 27, 2006 -> 01:46 PM) True, but just look at who led the league. Gooch himself. As much as I want to see him free-swinging, he was invaluable in the #2 hole. Oh well, we'll see how it goes. I am so damn excited about this year. So excited that I am actually a little scared about a flop. First, let me just say that I can't believe that Buster is still beating the productive out drum. They took the stats that they were tracking off the main stats page at ESPN. Why? It looked bad that the worst team in baseball in '04 was the best at making "productive outs." As for Gooch leading the league. Well isn't productive outs a counting stat? Didn't Gooch have more opportunities than almost everyone? Wasn't Uribe hitting at the bottom of the order all year, limitting his PO opportunities. Doesn't Uribe have a better PO% than Iguchi? Doesn't Uribe make significantly more contact than Iguchi? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rventura23 Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 i like that stat, although I liked Iguchi in the 2 hole, I think Uribe will do well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 27 "productive" outs is very good considering where he was hitting in the lineup. He just needs to maintain a .350 obp. If he does that, he'll be just fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KWs OK for Me Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 QUOTE(Jordan4life_2006 @ Feb 27, 2006 -> 04:19 PM) 27 "productive" outs is very good considering where he was hitting in the lineup. He just needs to maintain a .350 obp. If he does that, he'll be just fine. If Juan Uribe maintains a .350 OBP he'll be more than just "fine". He'll be having an absolutely amazing season. Even in his best year so far in 2004 he didn't even crack .330 in OBP. I know that Uribe has improved his approach at the plate and hits better when given a job to do, but I just don't see him getting on base at a .350 clip. I think he'll be extremely productive at doing his job, whether its bunting Podsednik over (hopefully from 2nd to 3rd after a SB), hitting a sac fly, taking pitches to allow Podsednik to steal, but he won't draw enough walks to be a Luis Castillo type #2 hitter. I see Uribe hitting ~.280-.290 with a .330-.350 (at very best) OBP. I think that hitting behind Pods will allow him to see more fastballs which should raise his average, he might even flirt with .300 for some part of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 QUOTE(KWs OK for Me @ Feb 27, 2006 -> 03:26 PM) If Juan Uribe maintains a .350 OBP he'll be more than just "fine". He'll be having an absolutely amazing season. Even in his best year so far in 2004 he didn't even crack .330 in OBP. I know that Uribe has improved his approach at the plate and hits better when given a job to do, but I just don't see him getting on base at a .350 clip. I think he'll be extremely productive at doing his job, whether its bunting Podsednik over (hopefully from 2nd to 3rd after a SB), hitting a sac fly, taking pitches to allow Podsednik to steal, but he won't draw enough walks to be a Luis Castillo type #2 hitter. I see Uribe hitting ~.280-.290 with a .330-.350 (at very best) OBP. I think that hitting behind Pods will allow him to see more fastballs which should raise his average, he might even flirt with .300 for some part of the season. I didn't say it wouold be easy. But I think it's doable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Human Borch Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 QUOTE(retro1983hat @ Feb 27, 2006 -> 02:46 PM) True, but just look at who led the league. Gooch himself. As much as I want to see him free-swinging, he was invaluable in the #2 hole. Oh well, we'll see how it goes. I am so damn excited about this year. So excited that I am actually a little scared about a flop. I'm really excited too and I agree, I'm scared we're gonna flop on that Sunday Night opener and I'm gonna be pissed off. Anyways, I never saw those stats and I didn't realize Uribe had all those productive outs. I was excited about this move in the first place, now I'm ecstatic. If all works out well this season, we should have a real shot at repeating. I still got my fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ObamaKnowsBest Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 (edited) I just think Juan strikes out alot. Doesnt seem to handle a curve/slider well. I'd rather see him in the bottom of the lineup swinging for the fences with that tornado swing. But if Iguchi can replace him with those bombs it would be a good tradeoff. Alot of those productive outs are most likely balls skied deep in the outfield for sacrifice flys. Don't think those are too useful in th #2 spot. Edited February 28, 2006 by Fourofakind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoFiStew Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 QUOTE(Fourofakind @ Feb 27, 2006 -> 07:32 PM) I just think Juan strikes out alot. Actually, Uribe struck only 77 times last year, while Iguchi struck out 114 times. Those productive out stats for Uribe are encouraging. If he can manage some semblance of the plate discipline he showed last September and October (granted, a big if), then this lineup switch could really be a win-win for the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 qwerty is reading the thread. I am waiting anxiously for his copyrighted saying Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksd Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Uribe was definitely a changed batter the second half of the season. That period of time when the team struggled it seemed like he was the only player on the entire team taking pitches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakes Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Towards the end of the year Juan starting seeing a lot of pitches. If he keeps the same aproach, I think he'll fit good in the 2 spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksd Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 QUOTE(shakes @ Feb 28, 2006 -> 11:43 AM) Towards the end of the year Juan starting seeing a lot of pitches. If he keeps the same aproach, I think he'll fit good in the 2 spot. word. I forget what game it was, but I remember seeing him have at least two ABs with 7+ in a row. At the time he was getting a lot of criticism for not taking pitches and being kind of a wild batter and it felt really good to see that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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