2003: A Look Into a Crystal Ball - Part 2

[Chisoxfn]

2003: A Look Into a Crystal Ball - Part 2

By: Matt Michel

 

Earlier this week, I brought you my outlook on the position players and how the White Sox are shaping up; as well as moves I feel need to be made to give Chicago a World Championship. Now it is time to look at the pitching staff Sox fans can expect to see on March 31 against Kansas City.

 

This column will assume that Kenny Williams will not make any significant moves, and will not acquire a big name pitcher this off-season (however, again, at the end I'll throw in my two cents as to what I'd do if I were KW), and again the projected 2003 stats are only projected if the player stays in the White Sox organization.

 

Starting Rotation

1) Mark Buehrle (2003 Projection: 21-8, 3.02 ERA)

Duh! There's only one given with the pitching situation in 2003, and it is that Mark Buehrle is the ace of the staff. Coming off a season in which he fell agonizingly short of becoming the first 20-game winner to don the South Side pinstripes since Jack McDowell, Buehrle fully established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the game.

 

The only real progression Mark needs to make is to limit the number of starts where he simply doesn't have it, whether because of fatigue or for other reasons. Despite the strong numbers Mark had last year, they could have been better had Mark not been completely flat in a few games. However, he is head and shoulders above 99.9% of the pitchers his age, so it is very likely that he will continue his development.

 

2) Jon Garland (Projection: 17-9; 4.07)

Yes, many may look at my projected stats for Jon and think I'm crazy, but I sincerely believe that Jon is on the cusp of superstardom. With Nardi Contreras a distant memory, Garland looks ready to make the next jump in his development. While many have chastised Jon for developing slowly at the major league level after being hyped in the minors, Jon will only be 23 at the start of next season, and like Buehrle, is far better than almost every other pitcher his age. Under the tutelage of Don Cooper, Sox fans should sit back and enjoy watching Jon develop into a front line starter.

 

3. Dan Wright (Projection: 10-10; 4.88)

Much like Garland, Wright is a talented, young pitcher who can be a force on the mound if he can get his act together. Also, like Garland, Wright mixed flashes of brilliance with flashes of the atrocious. All in all, 2002 was an up and down year for Dan, but that is to be expected of a young pitcher. And again, like Garland, Wright looks to vastly improve under Don Cooper.

 

4. Todd Ritchie (Projection: 9-11; 4.48)

Is Todd Ritchie as bad as he showed last year? Probably not. Will he ever be worth the three pitchers that GM Ken Williams dealt to get him? Probably not. While Ritchie suffered a horrible year, fans wanting to automatically cast him off need to regain their wits. Yes, Ritchie will probably never be the guy that Williams expected him to be, but that doesn't mean that Todd can't be an anchor for the rotation. If Williams gets a frontline starter to bump Todd back to the fifth starter role, it could do wonders for him, relieving him of the stress trying to live up to the deal that sent him here.

 

5. Rocky Biddle (Projection: 7-5; 4.32)

Barring a move by Williams, more than likely the #5 spot on the rotation will come down to a battle between Biddle, Gary Glover, and Jon Rauch. Biddle pitched the best last year for the Sox, and pitched very well towards the end as a starter. Glover and Rauch will probably need to have monster springs to leapfrog Rocky out of the starting rotation.

 

Bullpen

(Note: The order is determined by the likelihood of a player's chance to break camp with the Sox… It has nothing to do with a player's expected role.)

 

Keith Foulke (Projection: 2-6, 2.37, 41 SV, 5 BS)

More than likely, Keith's chance of returning to the Sox are more dependant on what kind of a deal Williams can get for him and how much Jerry Reinsdorf wants to pay him more than what he shows Cooper and Manuel in Arizona. If Keith is still a member of the organization by spring's end, he is certainly a lock to get on the team. Whether or not he has found his way out of the doghouse remains to be seen, but under ideal conditions, he would catapult back to being one of the more dominant closers in the game. With the ineptitude of Contreras gone, hopefully Cooper can pinpoint Keith's mechanical problems that have caused him to tip his pitches.

 

While the debate over whether Keith should start or come out of the pen still rages, if Keith is allowed to regain his closers role by Manuel and Cooper, he looks ready to become an untouchable closer once again.

 

Damaso Marte (Projection: 82 G, 5-3, 2.71)

Again, it looks as if Williams showed his ability to scout minor league talent when he nabbed Damaso Marte and Edwin Yan from Pittsburgh for Matt Guerrier. Marte developed into a solid left hander out of the bullpen, and while made some hearts skip at times, was generally very reliable.

 

The only thing that could hold Marte back would be injuries suffered as a cause of overuse (a la Kelly Wunsch), however, Damaso looked fine for all of last year and looks to be another force in the Sox pen.

 

Gary Glover (Projection: 52 G, 11 starts, 5-10, 4.52)

If Gary proved one thing last year, it was that he is a better relief pitcher than a starter. While he was ineffective (and sometimes, downright awful) as a starter, he proved his worth coming out of the 'pen. Next year, Glover looks to continue his bullpen duties as well as perform as a spot starter for the Sox.

 

Kelly Wunsch (Projection: 72 G, 1-2, 3.92)

Knowing Manuel and his love affair with righty/lefty matchups, he will carry at least two left-handers in the bullpen come 2003; and that more than likely means Kelly Wunsch will be packing his bags to join the team in Chicago. In 2000, he was one of the most effective relievers the Sox had, and now over a year removed from surgery, Kelly should at least regain some of that 2000 form.

 

Antonio Osuna (Projection: 59 G, 4-4, 4.15, 3 S, 2 BS)

Like Wunsch, Osuna is now over a year removed from shoulder surgery, meaning he should be returning to previous form. However, with a lot of youngsters beginning to make noise, Osuna will have to fight to earn his job, especially if another starter is added to the mix.

 

Edwin Almonte (Projection: 52 G, 3-8, 5.05)

While Almonte made headlines in Birmingham two years ago, setting the league record for saves (that has since been broken), his big league make-up is still shady. Without overpowering stuff, Edwin needs to rely on control as his main weapon of choice, and the past generally hasn't been in the favor of rookie finesse pitchers in the American League. I could be wrong, though.

 

Joe Valentine (Projection: 11 G, 1-2, 4.86)

With no changes to the current staff, Valentine would be the twelfth man (and, of course, the odd man out on an 11-man staff). If Valentine has a monster spring, he may leap other righties such as Almonte and Osuna. However, it is more likely that Valentine will start the season in Charlotte, which wouldn't be all that bad for him.

 

Jon Rauch (Projection: 18 GS, 5-2, 4.41)

Still trying to regain his form, Rauch will start the season in Charlotte. If he shows that he has regained the form that won him Minor League Player of the year a few years back, it won't be too long before Sox fans can expect him to make regularly scheduled appearances at Comiskey. Depending on the success of the rotation will likely regulate whether Rauch is a starter or follows the footsteps of Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland and come out of the pen.

 

Bill Simas (53 G, 4-8, 4.11)

While it's highly unlikely that Simas will make any more appearances in the big leagues, he is still a veteran that can provide leadership for the younger pitchers. However, this does not justify taking him over younger, better pitchers unless Simas has a great spring.

 

Mike Porzio (43 G, 3-8, 5.02)

With two left-handers already significantly ahead of him in the bullpen, Porzio faces quite an uphill battle if he wants to spend his summer in Chicago and not Charlotte.

 

Matt Ginter (21 G, 2-4, 5.28)

While Ginter has shown brief flashes of dominance, the overwhelming majority of his performances have left some reaching for the Maalox. Ginter doesn't have what it takes to pitch in the bigs. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am on Matt. Time to move on.

 

Review: While this staff shapes up to be better than the one that was trotted out on the field in 2002, there is still a gaping hole in the rotation. If the Sox are serious about contending, they need to bring in a front line starter to take the pressure off Buehrle, Garland, Wright, and Ritchie. This off-season is shaping up to have several experienced, winning pitchers available on the market. Williams will make the biggest statement about the direction the team is making on how he reacts. If he picks up a Maddux, Glavine, or Moyer to fill out the starting corps, then again, he is banking on the Sox to make a run at the postseason. If he sits by idly on his hands, then he will be all but forfeiting 2003 in hopes that players step up and develop for a run in '04 and '05.

 

As for the bullpen, it is beginning to regain the luster it had in 2000 when it was one of the best in the league. While a few questions remain, overall, the pitching staff that has been lined here is middle of the road in the American League. While it is nowhere near as good as top staffs such as Oakland, New York, and Anaheim, it is also no where as bad as the bottom-feeders, such as Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Texas.

Minor League players to watch: Royce Ring, Kris Honel, Delvis Ulacia, Brian West, Felix Diaz, and Corwin Malone.

[Cerbaho-WG]

Minor League players to watch: Royce Ring, Kris Honel, Delvis Ulacia, Brian West, Felix Diaz, and Corwin Malone. 

 

Delvis Lantigua, Denis Ulacia. Also watch Dave Sanders, Dave Stewart, Arnie Munoz, Clay Eason, Ryan Meaux.

[Chisoxfn]

Sanders is dominating the Arizona Fall League as is another lefty Josh Stewart and Righty Gary Majewski.

 

We also have a ton of prospects down in A ball and the rookie levels that will be with the Sox. I hear many saying we had the best draft in baseball last year. Of course you can't judge that quiet yet, but we've had a ton of guys step up.

 

My personal favorite is Jeremy Reed. The guy can run, hit and is one of the best defensive outfielders in the minors. Oh ya, he runs to first in 3.8 seconds. I think thats damn near what Ichiro does it in.

[doubleM23]

Originally posted by Cerbaho-WG

 

Minor League players to watch: Royce Ring, Kris Honel, Delvis Ulacia, Brian West, Felix Diaz, and Corwin Malone. 

 

Delvis Lantigua, Denis Ulacia. Also watch Dave Sanders, Dave Stewart, Arnie Munoz, Clay Eason, Ryan Meaux.

 

Argh! f***! Man, I have to stop writing these things at 1 AM.

[greg775]

If Todd Ritchie pitches again it better be in the No. 5 slot.

I guess I can accept us tossing him out there in the No. 5 slot, especially since it appeared he had a good attitude. He never pulled a Royce and blamed others.

But make no mistake about it: Ritchie sucked.

[doubleM23]

Originally posted by greg775

If Todd Ritchie pitches again it better be in the No. 5 slot.

I guess I can accept us tossing him out there in the No. 5 slot, especially since it appeared he had a good attitude. He never pulled a Royce and blamed others.

But make no mistake about it: Ritchie sucked.

 

However, did he suck as much as he showed? I don't know about that.

 

If he sucks in his first few starts, though, he'd better get banished to the bullpen.