Dayn Perry picks the Sox

[SSH2005]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5376576

White Sox could head back to World Series

Dayn Perry / FOXSports.com

 

We're in the midst of forecasting each of baseball's six divisions.

 

Up this time: the AL Central.

 

Certainly, injuries or late-hour trades can change things before opening day, but here's how things stand now.

 

2006 Predicted order of finish: AL Central

 

1. White Sox

2. Tigers

3. Indians

4. Twins

5. Royals

 

Chicago White Sox

 

●  2005 Runs Scored (AL Rank): 741 (9th)

 

●  2005 Runs Allowed (AL Rank): 645 (3rd)

 

●  2005 Starters' ERA (AL Rank): 3.75 (T-1st)

 

●  2005 Bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 3.23 (2nd)

 

General manager Kenny Williams avoided a pitfall common to reigning champs — relying too much on the status quo. Instead of resting on his laurels, Williams was among the most active executives this winter. You can argue with some of the decisions and the dollar figures involved, but the upshot is that the Sox are poised to repeat in what should be baseball's toughest division in 2006.

 

The rotation will be among the game's best, and they have depth with the addition of Javier Vazquez (although his fly-balling ways may not serve him well in U.S. Cellular). The bullpen, armed with hurlers like Bobby Jenks, Dustin Hermanson, Neal Cotts, Brandon McCarthy and Cliff Politte, will be among the game's best.

 

On offense, they still have core hitters like Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, and Jim Thome gives them pop from the DH spot (though Ozzie Guillen should unfailingly sit him against lefties). Rookie Brian Anderson, who should win the center field job, will be a capable hitter immediately, and bench contributors Rob Mackowiak, Ben Grieve and Pablo Ozuna constitute a solid reserve corps.

 

Overall, it's a balanced lineup, a solid team defense (albeit one lessened by the departure of Aaron Rowand), an exceptional rotation and a strong bullpen. In other words, a defense of their World Series title is quite possible.

Well actually, he didn't even mention Podsednik. You can see his reviews for the rest of the A.L. Central teams at the link. Tigers in 2nd place?

[Heads22]

He's still a tool.

[iWiN4PreP]

A tool he is.

[SSH2005]

He's still a tool.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In the article, Perry says that Ozzie should sit Thome against lefties.

 

Jim Thome (career stats vs. lefties): .244 AVG | .343 OBP | .426 SLG | .769 OPS

 

I might drop Thome down in the order against lefties but who on the bench do we have that can put up that line or better against lefties?

[whitesoxfan101]

I stopped reading after "2. Tigers". The fact he picked us makes me nervous since he has Detroit 2nd. Detroit has about a 0.0013% chance of finishing higher than 4th this year.

[chitownsportsfan]

I might drop Thome down in the order against lefties but who on the bench do we have that can put up that line or better against lefties?

 

Yea, Perry clearly didn't do much research for this preview piece, and although I agree with his sabermetric analysis often, it's clear that he's a lazy writer who is focusing more on book signings than being informed.

 

He thinks Ben Grieve is going to make the team out of spring training? As GOB would say: COME ON!

[SSH2005]

Yea, Perry clearly didn't do much research for this preview piece, and although I agree with his sabermetric analysis often, it's clear that he's a lazy writer who is focusing more on book signings than being informed.

 

He thinks Ben Grieve is going to make the team out of spring training?  As GOB would say: COME ON!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He must not have seen Grieve's pathetic display in right field today.

[whitesoxfan101]

Perry is such a huge SABR guy, yet he wants to sit Thome agianst lefties? Thome has a .343 OBP against lefties, which I would bet is the best on the team other than maybe Paulie.

[The Critic]

I stopped reading after "2. Tigers".  The fact he picked us makes me nervous since he has Detroit 2nd.  Detroit has about a 0.0013% chance of finishing higher than 4th this year.

I don't know if I agree with this.

The Tigers are not THAT far behind Minny, IMO.

With someone stepping up to close for them and a few early breaks to build momentum/confidence, I could see Detroit as a solid 3rd place team in the Central.

[SSH2005]

Perry is such a huge SABR guy, yet he wants to sit Thome agianst lefties?  Thome has a .343 OBP against lefties, which I would bet is the best on the team other than maybe Paulie.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dye is good against lefties...

 

Jermaine Dye (career stats vs. lefties): .279 AVG | .353 OBP | .468 SLG | .821 OPS

 

But the point remains -- we probably don't have anyone else on the bench who could top Thome's numbers against lefties. Maybe Dayn thinks that Borchard could do better against lefties than Thome?

Edited March 5, 2006 by SSH2005

[DABearSoX]

I stopped reading after "2. Tigers".  The fact he picked us makes me nervous since he has Detroit 2nd.  Detroit has about a 0.0013% chance of finishing higher than 4th this year.

 

So what were our chances of winning the series last year?

 

[DBAHO]

He's still pickin the Yankees to win it all though right?

[Dam8610]

I stopped reading after "2. Tigers".  The fact he picked us makes me nervous since he has Detroit 2nd.  Detroit has about a 0.0013% chance of finishing higher than 4th this year.

 

He's counting on Bonderman coming up huge, Verlander starting off his big league career as a solid 3-4 starter, Jones & Rogers carrying their success from last year over, and a very solid lineup gelling. It's not very likely that all of that will happen, but it's probably more likely than you're giving them credit for here. Remember, the Sox were supposed to finish 4th last year, and look what happened there.

 

I don't know if I agree with this.

The Tigers are not THAT far behind Minny, IMO.

With someone stepping up to close for them and a few early breaks to build momentum/confidence, I could see Detroit as a solid 3rd place team in the Central.

 

I agree. They have a far better lineup, a decent but lesser starting staff, and a questionable bullpen that is quite a bit worse than Minnesota. If they can get their offense to produce and find 1 or 2 more reliable releivers beyond Todd Jones, they have a chance at 3rd or maybe even 2nd.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Count me in on the Tigers being a potential sleeper. The talent is no doubt there. They weren't that bad last year until a horrible September slide.

[RME JICO]

The Sox and Indians are going to be the top 2 teams, then there will be a fall off to the Tigers and Twins. I don't see the Tigers passing up the Indians though.

[witesoxfan]

I still say count me in on Detroit sucking again. I just don't like the makeup of the team at all.

 

I still say the Tigers finish in last place, with the Royals finishing in 4th with 70+ wins.

[Dam8610]

I still say count me in on Detroit sucking again.  I just don't like the makeup of the team at all.

 

I still say the Tigers finish in last place, with the Royals finishing in 4th with 70+ wins.

 

If they can't keep Ordonez and Guillen on the field, I agree. If they can, I could see 85 wins for them, but Verlander would win rookie of the year in that scenario.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I still say count me in on Detroit sucking again.  I just don't like the makeup of the team at all.

 

I still say the Tigers finish in last place, with the Royals finishing in 4th with 70+ wins.

 

Unless George Brett, Danny Tartabull and pre-hip problem Bo Jackson are coming back to KC this year, no way in hell they finish above the Tigers. Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Nate Robertson and Justin Verlander is CONSIDERABLY better than whatever crap the Royals are gonna march out to the mound. Their bullpen is nothing to laugh at, either. Todd Jones should only make them better.

 

Offensively, if Maggs and Guillen are healthy, that's 5-10 wins more right there. Monroe, Granderson, Inge, Polanco and Shelton are all solid to very good. Then there's that Pudge guy. He had an off year last year. But if he can repeat what he did just a couple seasons ago, combined, of course, with Maggs and Guillen staying healthy, they're atleast a .500 team.

Edited March 6, 2006 by Jordan4life_2006

[whitesoxfan101]

I see the well made points about the Tigers that the Sox were finished to pick 4th last year. But the Tigers dont' have NEARLY the pitching we do. The Tigers have no shot of finishing ahead of us or Cleveland, and I think the Minnesota pitching will be too much for them to not finish ahead of Detroit.

[Dam8610]

I see the well made points about the Tigers that the Sox were finished to pick 4th last year.  But the Tigers dont' have NEARLY the pitching we do.  The Tigers have no shot of finishing ahead of us or Cleveland, and I think the Minnesota pitching will be too much for them to not finish ahead of Detroit.

 

They have Bonderman, Verlander, and Rogers. That's a lot of what they're season is riding on. The rest would be the health of Ordonez and Guillen.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I see the well made points about the Tigers that the Sox were finished to pick 4th last year.  But the Tigers dont' have NEARLY the pitching we do.  The Tigers have no shot of finishing ahead of us or Cleveland, and I think the Minnesota pitching will be too much for them to not finish ahead of Detroit.

 

I agree. The Sox and Indians are clearly the class of the division. However, I could see the Tigers possibly finishing ahead of the Twins. The Twins' offense is very suspect.

[mr_genius]

  Then there's that Pudge guy.  He had an off year last year.  But if he can repeat what he did just a couple seasons ago

 

 

if they stop testing for steroids pudge will be fine

 

[Rowand44]

To many people here are just counting out the Twins. Bad, bad idea.

[DBAHO]

I agree.  The Sox and Indians are clearly the class of the division.  However,  I could see the Tigers possibly finishing ahead of the Twins.  The Twins' offense is very suspect.

I still think though Minny's pitching is a bigger difference than what Detroit's offense will be.

 

Maggs never hits well at Comerica, Pudge was terrible, Nook Logan could still be a starter, Carlos Guillen is terribly injury prone etc. there's still a lot of what's ifs with that offense.

 

At least with Minny's rotation you know Santana and Radke are going to bring it, Silva will be a pretty good #3, Lohse may improve, and Baker / Liriano would be very nice #5 starters.

 

Also can we get Dimitri Young's thoughts on what way he sees the AL Central going this season?

[Jordan4life_2007]

I still think though Minny's pitching is a bigger difference than what Detroit's offense will be.

 

Maggs never hits well at Comerica, Pudge was terrible, Nook Logan could still be a starter, Carlos Guillen is terribly injury prone etc. there's still a lot of what's ifs with that offense.

 

At least with Minny's rotation you know Santana and Radke are going to bring it, Silva will be a pretty good #3, Lohse may improve, and Baker / Liriano would be very nice #5 starters.

 

Also can we get Dimitri Young's thoughts on what way he sees the AL Central going this season? 

 

Oh, yeah, a lot would have to go right for the Tigers for that to happen. I just think it's in the realm of possibility. This is gonna be a fun year in the central.