chitownsportsfan Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 The reason people think we will win 100 games or more is because they expect all of those things to happen again. They think the players will stay healthy, the pitching will stay amazing, and with the addition of Thome and possible improvement of Iguchi and Crede, the offense will be amazing. By comparison of players, this years team is better than last years team, which leads to a lot of 100+ win predictions. Yea, and some people think AK isn't a good poker hand because they lost to AA one time. No, seriously, you make excellent points Felix, and I agree completely with you: people think everything that went right last year will go right again this year, and then some more still will go right for the cherry on top. Reality is that maybe 1/2 of went right last year will go right again. Will the bullpen have journeymen like Politte and Hermanson post unreal ERA's? Probably not. Will the starting pitching have a remarkable run of career years and good healthy? Probably not. Will the Sox be so good in 1 run games? Probably not. And even given all those things going wrong, this is still a 90+ win team. I mean, that is the dream of every team in baseball. I guarantee that every team outside of maybe the Oakland and NY would switch rosters straight up with the Sox. However, prediciting 100+ is a bit much for me. It's freaking hard to win 100 games, and everything that went right for the Sox last year, (everything you listed) will have to happen again--and then some. It doesn't make any sense to think like that, at least in my opinion. Sure the Sox got Thome and Vasquez, but given normal health and a few more 1-run losses and blown leads by the bullpen, things will even out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felix Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Mar 10, 2006 -> 08:45 PM) Yea, and some people think AK isn't a good poker hand because they lost to AA one time. No, seriously, you make excellent points Felix, and I agree completely with you: people think everything that went right last year will go right again this year, and then some more still will go right for the cherry on top. Reality is that maybe 1/2 of went right last year will go right again. Will the bullpen have journeymen like Politte and Hermanson post unreal ERA's? Probably not. Will the starting pitching have a remarkable run of career years and good healthy? Probably not. Will the Sox be so good in 1 run games? Probably not. And even given all those things going wrong, this is still a 90+ win team. I mean, that is the dream of every team in baseball. I guarantee that every team outside of maybe the Oakland and NY would switch rosters straight up with the Sox. However, prediciting 100+ is a bit much for me. It's freaking hard to win 100 games, and everything that went right for the Sox last year, (everything you listed) will have to happen again--and then some. It doesn't make any sense to think like that, at least in my opinion. Sure the Sox got Thome and Vasquez, but given normal health and a few more 1-run losses and blown leads by the bullpen, things will even out. Which is exactly the reason I'm predicting the Sox to win around 96 games at most Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 (edited) On the other hand, the Sox also had plenty of things go very wrong last season. Scott Podsednik couldn't steal for the last 2 months, and spent a month barely able to play. Crede broke his hand. Jermaine Dye was attacked by a spider. A bunch of our guys continued to hit at levels well under where they should be and even well under their career averages (AJ, Rowand, Crede, Uribe, Everett) One of our pitchers had his arm fall completely off. Our best hitter managed to have only about 90 at bats. Timo Perez got 180 at bats. Our closer to start the year got shellacked Our 2nd closer blew out his back A lot of those things will change as well. So don't just say "Oh we got lucky last year". Yes, we got lucky when Mark Buehlre's foot wasn't really hurt, but there was also a sh*tload of talent on that team, with a lot of ability to overcome adversity. Edited March 11, 2006 by Balta1701 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 (edited) QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 10, 2006 -> 08:52 PM) On the other hand, the Sox also had plenty of things go very wrong last season. Scott Podsednik couldn't steal for the last 2 months, and spent a month barely able to play. Crede broke his hand. Jermaine Dye was attacked by a spider. A bunch of our guys continued to hit at levels well under where they should be and even well under their career averages (AJ, Rowand, Crede, Uribe, Everett) One of our pitchers had his arm fall completely off. Our best hitter managed to have only about 90 at bats. Timo Perez got 180 at bats. Our closer to start the year got shellacked Our 2nd closer blew out his back A lot of those things will change as well. So don't just say "Oh we got lucky last year". Yes, we got lucky when Mark Buehlre's foot wasn't really hurt, but there was also a sh*tload of talent on that team, with a lot of ability to overcome adversity. Sabermetricians will always say teams built around pitching and defense are "lucky". It's a fact of life set up by the way they try to predict win totals. They use a formula centered around runs scored and allowed, and teams built around good pitching and defense will usually win by less than most teams, thus "outperforming" the number of wins a sabermetrician would "expect". Don't confuse me for a sabermetrics hater, because I find quite a lot of it useful, however, I think that win totals can't be accurately projected by any formula. Edited March 11, 2006 by Dam8610 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Scott Podsednik couldn't steal for the last 2 months, and spent a month barely able to play. Crede broke his hand. Jermaine Dye was attacked by a spider. A bunch of our guys continued to hit at levels well under where they should be and even well under their career averages (AJ, Rowand, Crede, Uribe, Everett) One of our pitchers had his arm fall completely off. Our best hitter managed to have only about 90 at bats. Timo Perez got 180 at bats. Our closer to start the year got shellacked Our 2nd closer blew out his back More good points Balta, I'm glad you're around on a Friday night to debate baseball with me--lol. I think however that in the grand sabermetricaly aligned scheme of things in my head that those things that went wrong cost relatively few wins compared to those things that went right. I agree however that the Sox had some things go badly, which will likely go right this year. The biggest thing to me that sabermetricians forget, and which you mentioned is the freaking abysmal play of Timo Perez. I mean, dude got 180 AB? I almost feel sorry for the White Sox, then I think of Neifi Perez, and how my pain pales in comparison. However, an improved bench is a reason the homer and sabermetric side of me sees nothing to argue with as a reason for optimism. Will an improved bench make of up a near certain regression from the bullpen? That remains to be seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Mar 10, 2006 -> 06:05 PM) However, an improved bench is a reason the homer and sabermetric side of me sees nothing to argue with as a reason for optimism. Will an improved bench make of up a near certain regression from the bullpen? That remains to be seen. If it were only an improved bench that was possibly making up for a regression of the bullpen, I'd probably agree with you too. But it's not just an improved bench. It's first of all, an improved starting rotation, due to the subtraction of El Duque and addition of Vazquez. It remains to be seen how good he'll be given his struggels in recent years, but almost anything must be better than what El Duque gave us the last few months of the season where he just couldn't beat anyone and his arm was falling off. It's an improved ability to win long games, which we struggled with last year. Aside from Jenks, we had no long man...the longest other than him was Viz, who occasionally would throw 2.1 innings and then fall apart. BMac can go in and keep the bullpen alive and keep us in long games that we couldn't win last year, or he can keep the bullpen from being blown out during blow-out games. And most importantly of all, it's an almost certainly improved offense. The obvious one is Thome over Everett, which will be massively big, but AJP is almost guaranteed to improve on his numbers last year (it was his lowest OPS since he got to the big leagues, for example), Crede still has a ton of room to possibly improve if he can find a little more consistency and avoid slumps due to his back and his swing, Uribe has a ton of room for improvement and is hitting in what could be the perfect spot for him between Thome and Pods, Podsednik would have hit .300 and stolen 80 bases had it not been for his injuries, and Rowand was simply incredibly disappointing, and it won't take much for BA to equal his numbers. Oh, and Konerko has a shot at having a dynamite year also, if he avoids his early year slump (last year, had the season started on June 1, he'd have had a legit shot at MVP in the AL) The guys on our team were so surprisingly bad with the bats last year that there's room to make up for some losses which might happen if the bullpen regressess...on top of the other upgrades we made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POPPY_HIDALGO Posted March 11, 2006 Author Share Posted March 11, 2006 I think its safe to say that at worst this team wins 93 games. I see them easily winning over 100 and I am going to go on record and say it right now, I wouldn't be surprised if they won 120. So when it happens remember who said it first! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 QUOTE(POPPY_HIDALGO @ Mar 10, 2006 -> 06:23 PM) I think its safe to say that at worst this team wins 93 games. I see them easily winning over 100 and I am going to go on record and say it right now, I wouldn't be surprised if they won 120. So when it happens remember who said it first! Dude, you actually say in your sig that Buehrle will win 26 games? When's the last time anyone actually won that many in a season for anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felix Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 (edited) QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 10, 2006 -> 09:24 PM) Dude, you actually say in your sig that Buehrle will win 26 games? When's the last time anyone actually won that many in a season for anyone? 1990. Bobby Welch won 27. The last time before that was 1972, when Steve Carlton won 27. Edited March 11, 2006 by Felix Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 And most importantly of all, it's an almost certainly improved offense. As Omar from HBO's The Wire would say, "oh indeed". (Sorry obscure reference--but a good one IMO) If there is one reason to think the Sox will win more than 99 games this season, it's the offense. Throw PECOTA out the window, I think their Sox prejections are mostly junk. I'm not a big fan of BP in general, but that is for another day... Uribe, Crede, Iguchi, and BA will almost certainly improve as a group. Thome/Gload will improve the DH spot massively barring injury. (which is looking unlikely given the suddenly statue like Thome) I expect AJ to be about the same: sacrificing contact for power. I expect Pods to be about the same: dead average for his career. I expect Dye to perform about the same, and I expect Kong to have a slightly "worse" year. I am most optimisic about the offense this season. Say we score 50 more runs--will that make up for losses other places? Hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Mar 10, 2006 -> 06:45 PM) I am most optimisic about the offense this season. Say we score 50 more runs--will that make up for losses other places? Hopefully. Last year, scoring 50 more runs would have made us the #4 offense in the AL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 (edited) Last year, scoring 50 more runs would have made us the #4 offense in the AL. A major upgrade no doubt. It's for that reason Balta that I'm not predicting doom and gloom this season--I'm predicting playoffs. I really think the offense will pickup the rest of the things that can and will go wrong. Edited March 11, 2006 by chitownsportsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin57 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 10, 2006 -> 08:52 PM) On the other hand, the Sox also had plenty of things go very wrong last season. Scott Podsednik couldn't steal for the last 2 months, and spent a month barely able to play. Crede broke his hand. Jermaine Dye was attacked by a spider. A bunch of our guys continued to hit at levels well under where they should be and even well under their career averages (AJ, Rowand, Crede, Uribe, Everett) One of our pitchers had his arm fall completely off. Our best hitter managed to have only about 90 at bats. Timo Perez got 180 at bats. Our closer to start the year got shellacked Our 2nd closer blew out his back A lot of those things will change as well. So don't just say "Oh we got lucky last year". Yes, we got lucky when Mark Buehlre's foot wasn't really hurt, but there was also a sh*tload of talent on that team, with a lot of ability to overcome adversity. Ah, but you forgot the biggest of all: the Big Hurt. For those who lamented the Sox' lack of power last year, Frank was supposed to be it, yet he was out most of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 QUOTE(kevin57 @ Mar 10, 2006 -> 07:23 PM) Ah, but you forgot the biggest of all: the Big Hurt. For those who lamented the Sox' lack of power last year, Frank was supposed to be it, yet he was out most of the season. Actually, I included that..."Our best hitter managed to have only about 90 at bats" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin57 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Thanks, I stand corrected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Mar 11, 2006 -> 02:11 PM) A major upgrade no doubt. It's for that reason Balta that I'm not predicting doom and gloom this season--I'm predicting playoffs. I really think the offense will pickup the rest of the things that can and will go wrong. And we're gonna need those type of extra runs for this upcmoing season, because we can't rely on our bullpen being as good as it was 2005, with the likes of Hermy, Politte and Jenks etc. and even with our rotation, can the likes of Buerhle hold up with the amount of innings he's thrown over the past couple of seasons, and can Vazquez rebound and can Garland continue throwing the way he did in 2005? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 I'm gonna go with an even 100. I just don't see any legitimate weaknesses on this team. Everybody seems to be worried about the bullpen. I'm not. They were one of the top pens in the game last year. Until they show otherwise, they get the benefit of the doubt as far as I'm concerned. The offense is A LOT better. The rotation, as hard as it is to fathom, is better. The Bench is A LOT better. 100-62 is what I'm predicting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 This new poppy sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Poppy makes Hawk Harreslon look like a pessimist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 174. The All-Star game will feature only Sox players in the game due to Guillen being the manager, and the NL being such a s***ty league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RME JICO Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 This has to be one of the best polls ever. I cannot even choose my first 2 choices (102 wins or 58 wins). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCSox Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 (edited) QUOTE(POPPY_HIDALGO @ Mar 10, 2006 -> 08:20 AM) I see the Sox winning somewhere between 110 and 120 games this year. The rotation is that solid and the everyday lineup is easily one of the best in the league and by the end of the season might be looked at as one of the greatest of all time. So how well do you all see them doing this year? Sorry, but our lineup isn't THAT good. As far as the modern teams go, I like to use the '98 Yankess as the measuring stick. And I don't think that the '05 Sox are at that level. 95-67 Edited March 11, 2006 by WCSox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyDo Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 I'm sorry, but we had 3 starting pitchers last year who had not-so-great seasons the year before, and I'm willing to bet at least one of them has a not-so-great season this year. The lineup is looking good, but there's no indication that Brian Anderson will provide much bat at all this year. It'll probably be a while for him. Unless we shore up that second lefty in the bullpen, I think we'll fare similar to last year, maybe a few more losses because (admit it!) we got a little lucky last year. Not to say it wasn't the best frickin year of my life! 93 wins, probably another division title Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jphat007 Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 QUOTE(ScottyDo @ Mar 11, 2006 -> 02:09 PM) I'm sorry, but we had 3 starting pitchers last year who had not-so-great seasons the year before, and I'm willing to bet at least one of them has a not-so-great season this year. The lineup is looking good, but there's no indication that Brian Anderson will provide much bat at all this year. It'll probably be a while for him. Unless we shore up that second lefty in the bullpen, I think we'll fare similar to last year, maybe a few more losses because (admit it!) we got a little lucky last year. Not to say it wasn't the best frickin year of my life! 93 wins, probably another division title I think you overrate the impact our last pitcher out of the pen will have on this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnB Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 give me 91-100 and i'll have a smile on my face at the end of september, everytime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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