ESPN "Expert" Picks

[hammerhead johnson]

I don't think Houston should be in that list (losing Clemens is a huge blow), nor should Minnesota.  Since right now we are only talking about teams on paper, the Mets should be there, as should the Phillies.

 

But yes, the AL is much better than the NL.

 

On paper, the Mets have terrible pitching depth. They have dudes like Glavine and Trachsel starting games for them. Victor Zambrano sucks hard as well, yeah? They don't have bullpen depth.

 

Amazing lineup, though. That 3-6 combo of Wright/Delgado/Beltran/Floyd is f***ing insane, but it ain't gonna be enough.

 

The Phillies also have a pretty bad overall pitching staff with little to no depth. I'm not scared of anybody in their starting staff with the exception of Myers.

 

The AL has all of the pitching depth right now, and that's where it's at. That's how you build. Good job K-Dub.

[Felix]

The Yankees have no pitching depth either, but they are mentioned?

[SuperSteve]

The Yankees have no pitching depth either, but they are mentioned?

Damon, Jeter, ARod, Shefield, Giambi, Matsui, Cano... with Big Unit, Pavano bounch back year? Wright bounce back? Mussina. They're fine.

[hammerhead johnson]

The Yankees have no pitching depth either, but they are mentioned?

 

Have you looked at their lineup lately? That 1-7 is among the best in baseball history.

 

They also have just enough pitching to get by & win an even 90 games. That's what it's gonna take to win the AL East IMO.

[Felix]

Damon, Jeter, ARod, Shefield, Giambi, Matsui, Cano... with Big Unit, Pavano bounch back year? Wright bounce back? Mussina. They're fine.

I do think that the Yankees are a top 10 team in the league, but can you explain to me what Wright is going to bounce back to? He had 1 good year in his entire career, and that was in Atlanta, where all pitchers thrive (or so it seems). Literally every other year, he has been an average, or most of the time below average, pitcher.

 

(the same can be said about Pavano, but he had 2 good years in his career)

(and hell, what's Moose going to bounce back to? he's been average the last two years)

(and yea, Randy Johnson is like 500 years old.. everyone wears out)

Edited March 28, 2006 by Felix

[hammerhead johnson]

Damon, Jeter, ARod, Shefield, Giambi, Matsui, Cano... with Big Unit, Pavano bounch back year? Wright bounce back? Mussina. They're fine.

 

Are you dissing Jorge?

[SuperSteve]

Are you dissing Jorge? 

I knew I forgot someone, thanks for the help.

[jackie hayes]

On paper, the Mets have terrible pitching depth.  They have dudes like Glavine and Trachsel starting games for them.  Victor Zambrano sucks hard as well, yeah?  They don't have bullpen depth.

 

Amazing lineup, though.  That 3-6 combo of Wright/Delgado/Beltran/Floyd is f***ing insane, but it ain't gonna be enough.

 

The Phillies also have a pretty bad overall pitching staff with little to no depth.  I'm not scared of anybody in their starting staff with the exception of Myers. 

 

The AL has all of the pitching depth right now, and that's where it's at.  That's how you build.  Good job K-Dub. 

The Mets don't have much rotation depth, okay. But in the pen you have Jorge Julio (their Luis Vizcaino), and (for now) Aaron Heilman, and Duaner Sanchez. I think Ring and Bradford will be at least ML average. All backed by, da da da da, Billy Wagner. It's not bad, even in terms of depth.

 

The Phillies can't help themselves when they see a 35+ reliever earning $5 mil+. Best of luck with that. Then they throw out Padilla. Maybe they think Howard can bat twice, I dunno.

[bmags]

guys, heres how its gonna go down.

 

AL East - Mike Ditka

AL Central - Mike Ditka

 

and the rest you know

[chitownsportsfan]

guys, heres how its gonna go down.

 

AL East - Mike Ditka

AL Central - Mike Ditka

 

and the rest you know

 

Oh indeed.

[Soxfest]

I do not get the Angels love at all and P.Gomez cannot ever get his head out of his Jeter Yankees loving ass.

 

 

[hammerhead johnson]

The Mets don't have much rotation depth, okay.  But in the pen you have Jorge Julio (their Luis Vizcaino), and (for now) Aaron Heilman, and Duaner Sanchez.  I think Ring and Bradford will be at least ML average.  All backed by, da da da da, Billy Wagner.  It's not bad, even in terms of depth.

 

I like Wagner, Julio, and Heilman, but I'm not impressed by the rest of them. Sanchez appears to be a product of Shea Stadium. I dunno about Bradford. He gave up a .410 batting average to left-handed hitters last year? Good God. The book on Royce Ring is that he sucks badly, but maybe there's an outside chance that he could turn it around. I'm sure that someone will emerge and pitch well, but chances are that one of their big three (Wagner/Julio/Heilman) will get injured, and then you'll have a bullpen crisis. And if a starter goes down, I'm assuming that Heilman will step up and fill that slot. Also, their rotation minus Pedro looks like it belongs in Kansas City. It's not just merely bad. It's gruesome.

[witesoxfan]

So Cleveland will "regress" by one game to 92 wins.  They won 93 last year. 

 

I really disagree with your whole post--the things your prodicted are extremely rare, and by your own admission, a team that won 93 last year, is in for a serious regression.  You didn't say "serious", but that is how infer  your comments to mean.  And yet you have them winning 92 games logically.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb here--no team in the AL will win 100 games.  And, no division will produce three 90 games winners--not even the central.

 

These things are rare, and no team in the central looks capable of more than 95 wins right now, let alone 100.  The Sox played brilliant baseball last year and still "only" won 99.  If you see that happening again + some, fine, I won't waste me time saying while not--only I urge us to come back in October and see whose prediction was closer to the real outcome.

 

I was being a bit sarcastic with my starting pitching comments...Elarton is a nothing loss and will be replaced by Jason Johnson very easily...atleast in the first half. I was also pointing out that Millwood only won 9 games, with Cleveland only winning 15 games he started...considering he led the league in ERA, that's not a lot; Santana won 16 starts on a team with 12 fewer wins. Paul Byrd will easily be able to replace the production Millwood put up...perhaps not peripherally, but health wise, saving the bullpen, and likely winning more games as well.

 

I actually don't see Cleveland regressing much at all...I figured that my second paragraph had covered that. They made a lot of unsexy moves, as we like to call them around here, but have a very similar team on the field this year as they did last year. I could see them easily improving and winning the division. However, the Sox depth in talent along with my Sox bias thinks it won't happen that way.

 

90 wins probably won't happen...the last time it happened was 2002 in the AL West. Only 6 teams finished above .500 in the AL, 5 teams lost 90 or more games, and 3 of those teams lost 100 or more. Texas did actually win 72 games, so it's possible for the two cellar dwellers to be below-average, yet not 100+ loss teams for it to occur...that being said, parity is crazy in the AL, so 90 is a bit of a stretch, though all 3 teams do have the talent to win 90. Hopefully that sounds better and I'm not backtracking too much.

 

I also do see the Sox as a 100 win team, and I have no problem saying so. The biggest question mark to me, right now, aside from the bullpen, is the health and production of Podsednik. His shoulder has been bugging him, and his groin has just recently flared up again too...those are not good signs for a guy so important to the offense. Case in point, Jerry Owens better be ready for an emergency call up, because he may be needed this year. The middle of the lineup will produce, and guys like AJP and Uribe should improve off of last year's numbers. I also think Crede has fixed his swing for good, and while the playoff push Crede won't last all year, I could easily see him hitting .270-.280 with 30 homers or so, putting up an .800 OPS and proving to be a very good all-around player. The addition of Thome will be very big too, because, assuming he stays healthy enough to produce enough, he could most likely help improve the teams win total 3-4 games all by himself due to his ability to hit tough righties. I also view having a 1-5 deep rotation, all very durable pitchers, as a key too...the addition of a true 5th starter will be a large asset to the Sox all year, and could lead to some very lengthy winning streaks, and hopefully keeps the losing streaks to a minimum.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I do not get the Angels love at all and P.Gomez cannot ever get his head out of his Jeter Yankees loving ass.

 

The Angels have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. If some of their young position players step up, they'll be very good.

[jackie hayes]

I like Wagner, Julio, and Heilman, but I'm not impressed by the rest of them.  Sanchez appears to be a product of Shea Stadium.  I dunno about Bradford.  He gave up a .410 batting average to left-handed hitters last year?  Good God.  The book on Royce Ring is that he sucks badly, but maybe there's an outside chance that he could turn it around.  I'm sure that someone will emerge and pitch well, but chances are that one of their big three (Wagner/Julio/Heilman) will get injured, and then you'll have a bullpen crisis.  And if a starter goes down, I'm assuming that Heilman will step up and fill that slot.  Also, their rotation minus Pedro looks like it belongs in Kansas City.  It's not just merely bad.  It's gruesome.

Pedro goes down, the season is finished. As bad as Benson is, you have to wonder about that trade.

 

I think Royce will be okay for middle relief. At least someone will -- they have a bunch of options for that lefty spot. As for Bradford, that's always been his line, and he's been used appropriately -- unless the Mets are unbelievably stupid, stupid enough to trade, oh, Kazmir for Zambrano, I can't imagine they'd throw him against many lhb.

 

I wouldn't pick the Mets, but I heart David Wright, so a healthy year from Pedro and I wouldn't be surprised by anything.

[jackie hayes]

Also, Duaner Sanchez = product of Dodger Stadium (or whatever it may be called now, I don't care about these things), not Shea. Which is just to say, yes, I noticed that, I thought about that. Okay, fair enough. But he looked darn good there. I think he'll be at least decent at Shea.

 

Also, Jay Seo = not really so bad. The Mets are not great talent evaluators, but Pedro + broken clock, etc.

[sircaffey]

Also, Duaner Sanchez = product of Dodger Stadium (or whatever it may be called now, I don't care about these things), not Shea.  Which is just to say, yes, I noticed that, I thought about that.  Okay, fair enough.  But he looked darn good there.  I think he'll be at least decent at Shea.

 

Also, Jay Seo = not really so bad.  The Mets are not great talent evaluators, but Pedro + broken clock, etc.

 

Sanchez has some filthy stuff. When he pitched against us last year, I was impressed. Hawk and DJ were as well. Sanchez could turn out to be a helluva pitcher. And he's pretty young (26). I think he'll be one of the Mets best relievers next season.

[hammerhead johnson]

Also, Duaner Sanchez = product of Dodger Stadium (or whatever it may be called now, I don't care about these things), not Shea.  Which is just to say, yes, I noticed that, I thought about that.  Okay, fair enough.  But he looked darn good there.  I think he'll be at least decent at Shea.

 

There you go. It has more to do with his surroundings than it has to do with actual pitching talent, and his numbers should be significantly worse on the road. I'd like to see how he performs in Philadelphia, or in Atlanta.

[hammerhead johnson]

Sanchez has some filthy stuff.  When he pitched against us last year, I was impressed.  Hawk and DJ were as well.  Sanchez could turn out to be a helluva pitcher.  And he's pretty young (26).  I think he'll be one of the Mets best relievers next season.

 

Well, his road WHIP last year was 1.60, which is pretty much terrible. He'll definitely have to improve on that.

[hammerhead johnson]

It also occured to me that left-handed hitters are going to kill the Mets this year.

 

Chad Bradford .410 BAA

Duaner Sanchez .310 BAA

Jorge Julio .281 BAA

 

And Royce Ring had a 2.05 WHIP against left-handed hitters last year.

 

Can Billy Wagner pitch every inning of relief for them?

[jackie hayes]

There you go.  It has more to do with his surroundings than it has to do with actual pitching talent, and his numbers should be significantly worse on the road.  I'd like to see how he performs in Philadelphia, or in Atlanta.

Agreed, I don't think Sanchez is a great bet in the long run. But look at his minor league numbers, and compare his home away splits in 2004 and 2005 -- I think it has to do as much with pure luck as surroundings. And if he doesn't do well, Julio should be pretty good, too. First Shingo went down, then Hermanson -- that's depth.

 

But still, they're screwed if Pedro goes down. The Mets and every single one of your fantasy teams, I'm guessing.

[jackie hayes]

And Royce Ring had a 2.05 WHIP against left-handed hitters last year.

In 6 ip. Plus, they have Heilman in the pen for now.

[hammerhead johnson]

But still, they're screwed if Pedro goes down.  The Mets and every single one of your fantasy teams, I'm guessing.

 

Yep, it might have been a mistake to draft him in the second round this year with the toe issues and what not. But I've had him on all of my fantasy teams since like 2001, so why give up on him now. That dude is the man. He's easily my favorite pitcher in the MLB.

[LVSoxFan]

As much as seeing those predictions makes me mad, last year was the same no respect, and look how that turned out.  Predictions are meaningless, if predictions mattered they wouldn't play the games at all.  The Sox just have to go out there and prove their doubters wrong again.  I would like to see where the experts that didn't pick the Sox to make the playoffs have the Sox finishing in the Central this season.

 

First of all, I'm absolutely FINE with nobody picking us to repeat this year. Fine. The Sox in '05 were noteable for that enormous chip on their shoulder and if being disrespected keeps them from getting fat n' happy (helloooo, Jenks!), then so be it.

 

While I think we're a favorite to win the division, a repeat is a highly difficult feat--some say it's harder than winning it the first time. And as Mariotti pointed out today, nobody has done that in a decade.

 

HOWEVER, you may also remember last year that the whole mantra all year, from KW on down, was: win the damn division first, and worry about the rest as it comes. I surely HOPE that the Sox are not eyeing the WS in mid-May, when they should be worrying about, yes, the Indians and the Twins.

 

A few other points:

 

a) I would NEVER count out the Twins. That team is a model of year-to-year efficiency. So much so that we IMITATED them and it got us a World Series. I would not EVER take them lightly.

 

B) The debate rages about how the Indians will be. Well first of all, they were the best damn team in baseball 2nd half last year, period. It was only by the grace of God, a dropped fly ball in K.C. and Joe Crede that it wasn't them crusing to the World Series and not us. That said, I'd say we've got two contenders for the AL Central besides us, and Cleveland is pissed. I'm sure they're going to love watching the ring ceremony at the Cell, in person. I would not count them out either. Sure they got rid of Coco Crisp (bad idea), but their pitching is awesome. And so is their manager.

 

c) Assuming we can get through the central, look out for the West coast. I don't think the Angels are too happy about getting smoked when they kicked our ass all year long, and while the A's weren't in the playoffs against us, they were our bete noire for years and probably still will be. Oakland stadium is like a house of horrors for the Sox, and 2005 was no different.

 

We got a long road, people. I'm just going to try and enjoy it and not EVEN think about the WS until literally the ALCS. We got a lot of other things to overcome.

 

Game by game, people. Hey: it worked last year!

[Balta1701]

B) The debate rages about how the Indians will be.  Well first of all, they were the best damn team in baseball 2nd half last year, period.  It was only by the grace of God, a dropped fly ball in K.C. and Joe Crede that it wasn't them crusing to the World Series and not us.  That said, I'd say we've got two contenders for the AL Central besides us, and Cleveland is pissed.  I'm sure they're going to love watching the ring ceremony at the Cell, in person.  I would not count them out either.  Sure they got rid of Coco Crisp (bad idea), but their pitching is awesome.  And so is their manager.

Here is where I think you're very much wrong. Their Pitching was good last year, not great. Their bullpen was great. But their starting pitching has almost certainly taken a step backwards this year with the loss of Millwood and Elarton, and it's hard for me to say that the guys they got as replacements (Johnson from Detroit, who we kill IIRC, and old crafty vet Paul Byrd) simply aren't at the same level. On top of that, they lost Howry from their bullpen, and don't have an obvious contender to back up Wickman if his health issues, which held him to 66 appearances in 2002, 2003, and 2004 combined crop back up. The Indians Pitching staff will only take a step forward if everyone does the same as they did last year, but Lee and Sabathia take big steps forwards, and that looks very doubtful to me.

 

c) Assuming we can get through the central, look out for the West coast.  I don't think the Angels are too happy about getting smoked when they kicked our ass all year long, and while the A's weren't in the playoffs against us, they were our bete noire for years and probably still will be.  Oakland stadium is like a house of horrors for the Sox, and 2005 was no different.

You're right on Oakland, but I think the Angels are going to find themselves in some deep trouble this year, as I'm not sure that even their GM knows what their plan for the future is. They have young guys that they don't know what to do with, they keep spending money on veterans who are blocking the young guys, and they're relying on even more risky guys in their pitching staff (Escobar, Colon) than the A's are IMO.

Edited March 28, 2006 by Balta1701