Sox are legit, but Cubs look like pretenders

[RME JICO]

Sox are legit, but Cubs look like pretenders

 

Mike Downey

Published March 30, 2006

 

A few days ago, while in the process of evaluating the teams that play in the Cubs' division, I pulled the Milwaukee Brewers out of my hat as the guys who are going to surprise St. Louis, Houston and the rest of the baseball world in this 2006 season by ending up in first place.

 

This led to a Cubs fan inquiring of me, quite understandably, "So if the Brewers are going to be in first place, where are the Cubs going to be?"

 

The words came out of my mouth a little more quickly than I meant them to, a little too bluntly.

 

"Last place," I said.

 

A look of puzzlement came over this true-blue Cubs fan's face, followed by a snicker and a logical deduction that I must be pulling his leg. Because no matter how unsuccessful the Cubs legendarily have been, no matter how unlucky and how accident-prone, I couldn't honestly take a good look at these guys and see them stumbling home dead last.

 

But, in fact, I do.

 

It is with no hidden agenda and no malice aforethought that I foresee the 2006 Cubs as nothing short of an unqualified disaster. When I contrast their roster with that of the other five clubs in the National League Central, I can come up with no persuasive reason to expect the Cubs to finish ahead of anybody, let alone everybody.

 

Conclude what you will about the quality of the middling teams, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds, but to me they bear the look of teams on the upswing. Whereas if the Cubs have taken steps to improve themselves at any position other than center field, it is certainly not visible to the naked eye.

 

Try as I might, in these last days before Opening Day, I simply am unable to see beyond their shortcomings.

 

When I look at the eight positions that surround the mound, I see gigantic question marks at no fewer than four—left field, right field, shortstop and second base. There they have a mix of eager rookies and adequate veterans, but no one to fill you with confidence that the NL All-Star team is going to be well stocked with representatives from Chicago.

 

And you'll need to pardon me if I can't go into a baseball season experiencing paroxysms of joy simply because my team beefed up its middle relief pitching. Bravo to the Cubs for addressing this need, but wouldn't you feel a whole lot better about the guys pitching the seventh and eighth innings if you felt better about the ones pitching the first through sixth?

 

A perfect storm of elements and coincidences will need to come together for the Cubs to have a real shot this year. If they have no bombshells to drop on us, roster-wise, from now until Monday's opener in Cincinnati, then I dread what is to follow George W. Bush's ceremonial first pitch.

 

To those of you monitoring the physical status of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, I beg of you, please stop. Their contributions to 2006 are unknowable.

 

Each day of the winter and early spring, I waited for the Cubs to see the light and acquire a star starter, by hook or by crook. A shortstop for $50 million? Please, go spend it on somebody with a sound right arm instead.

 

The way to a World Series was what the 2005 White Sox proved it to be and what the 2003 Cubs nearly proved it to be. That is an overstocked staff of starting pitchers, one that guarantees an entire season won't go down the drain simply because a couple of those pitchers don't come through for you.

 

And speaking of the Sox …

 

Their defense of the crown begins in three days. The party starts in prime time Sunday night with interest in the team, and newfound respect for it, approaching a Boston-like fever pitch.

 

As for the team itself, well, obvious talent aside, there is no way the Sox can snap their fingers and recreate the hunger, chemistry and quirks of fate that made 2005 the year it was. A key injury here, a slump or two there and the Sox could rejoin baseball's mortals.

 

I can find no logical reason, however, to choose the White Sox not to take their division again this season. Nothing they have done since their triumphant October has given anyone any specific cause to doubt them.

 

If only the Cubs could catch every break, avoid every injury, develop that same perfect blend of talent and teamwork, they could do exactly what the White Sox did. To end up in first place, not in last place, would be a heckuva way for the Cubs to make 2006 even more of a shock than 2005.

 

They won't.

[Jordan4life_2007]

No way they finish below the Pirates. I think they'll end up 4th or 5th.

[YASNY]

No way they finish below the Pirates.  I think they'll end up 4th or 5th.

 

I can see them finishing below Pittsburg.

[AngelasDaddy0427]

I can't... Even with their crappy rotation their not as bad as the pirates and reds...

[Jordan4life_2007]

I can see them finishing below Pittsburg.

 

Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez would have to miss significant time for them to finish below the Pirates. I'd love to see it happen, though.

[GoodAsGould]

Pittsburgh is starting to have a solid rotation and maybe if Kip Wells wasnt out they could have a chance... but they are still a year or 2 away from making serious noise.

[WCSox]

Zambrano,  Lee and Ramirez would have to miss significant time for them to finish below the Pirates.  I'd love to see it happen,  though.

 

Yeah, I agree. They'll get 200 innings each out of Zambrano and Maddux, even if Wood and Prior only combine for 200.

[iWiN4PreP]

theyll finish fourth

[YASNY]

Pittsburgh is starting to have a solid rotation and maybe if Kip Wells wasnt out they could have a chance... but they are still a year or 2 away from making serious noise.

 

Finishing above the Cubs is not 'serious noise'.

[LosMediasBlancas]

If, If, If somehow Wood and Prior come back, they'll be ok. Their pen and the top of the line up should be better

[Balta1701]

If, If, If somehow Wood and Prior come back, they'll be ok.  Their pen and the top of the line up should be better

That's assuming that Derek Lee will be able to match the absolutely monstrous numbers he put up last year. He's damn good, but the percentages still strongly suggest that he has to drop off somewhere; things tend to even out in the long run. He probably won't hit .270 like he did the 2 years before, but .335 with 46 home runs? I just don't think he'll be able to keep that streak going like he did last year.

[Felix]

That's assuming that Derek Lee will be able to match the absolutely monstrous numbers he put up last year.  He's damn good, but the percentages still strongly suggest that he has to drop off somewhere; things tend to even out in the long run.  He probably won't hit .270 like he did the 2 years before, but .335 with 46 home runs?  I just don't think he'll be able to keep that streak going like he did last year.

I'm expecting Lee to hit something like .290/.385/.520 with 41 2B, 34 HR and 98 RBI.

[Balta1701]

I'm expecting Lee to hit something like .290/.385/.520 with 41 2B, 34 HR and 98 RBI.

I wouldn't be surprised if he did better than that (some depends on his injury/wear and tear from the WBC)...but even if he was hitting less than .320 with 40 home runs, his offensive dropoff would more than cancel out any improvement they get from having Pierre at the top.

[Felix]

I wouldn't be surprised if he did better than that (some depends on his injury/wear and tear from the WBC)...but even if he was hitting less than .320 with 40 home runs, his offensive dropoff would more than cancel out any improvement they get from having Pierre at the top.

I find the fact that before last year, he never hit over .282 at the major league level, very suspicious, and I highly doubt he will come anywhere near the .335 he hit last year. I'm likely wrong, but we'll see

[Balta1701]

I find the fact that before last year, he never hit over .282 at the major league level, very suspicious, and I highly doubt he will come anywhere near the .335 he hit last year.  I'm likely wrong, but we'll see

Last year I kept expecting him to fall back to earth the whole year, and it seemed like he never did. Never had a month where he hit below .280, never hit less than 7 home runs in any month, model of consistency.

 

He looked great in the WBC too...but he hasn't looked that good since coming back from that & having that small injury. He's a notorious slow starter except for last year, so right out of the gate we should be able to tell which Lee is showing up. The Cubs will desperately need the Lee from last year if they want to have a remote shot.

[Texsox]

I think they will draw over 2,000,000, jackasses will continue to throw balls back on the field, Dusty will destruct, Wood will be hurt, Zambrano will be an ass, and more concrete will fall from the upper deck. In other words, same old same old