4 "rookies" in the bullpen?

[VAfan]

Before the season starts, I just want to rant for one second to get this out of my system. What I don't want to do is come back to it during the season if things don't work out. I just want to pull wholeheartedly for the Sox to repeat.

 

WHAT WAS KENNY WILLIAMS THINKING???????

 

Our 6-man bullpen -- which was an immensely important part of our division title and run to the World Series last year (except for the ALCS) -- is essentially made up of 4 "rookies," a third-year guy (Cotts), and a veteran with a career ERA of 4.06 (Cliff Politte).

 

Why do I call Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton, Brandon McCarthy, and Boone Logan "rookies"?

 

1. Boone Logan is a rookie by all definitions. Never pitched above "A" ball.

2. Brandon McCarthy is a converted starter who has never pitched out of the bullpen, and hasn't pitched a full year in the majors in any capacity.

3. Matt Thornton pitched a full year last year, but we know he stunk for Seattle. We're counting on him because we've changed his delivery. How many innings has he thrown with this new delivery? 2? 3? 5? I don't know, but not very many.

4. Bobby Jenks, our closer, came up for half the year last year. He hasn't pitched in April-June in the big leagues yet. Plus, if he failed last year, we had veteran backups.

 

So, we've put the fate of a World Series champion ballclub in the hands of a bullpen that may have the LEAST experience in the major leagues. Mariano Rivera, with 11 years experience, has almost as much as our entire bullpen combined. (Politte 8 + Cotts 2 + Thornton 1 + Jenks 1/2 + McCarthy 1/2 + Logan 0 = 12). THIS IS SCARY. THIS IS CRAZY.

 

Now one argument that is made is that we don't need to rely on our bullpen that much because we have such great starting pitching. True. But we had great starting pitching last year and we still had to rely extensively on our bullpen to win all those 1-run and 2-run games. If we didn't win at a .667 clip in tight ballgames, we might have never made the postseason.

 

Another argument that is made is our offense will be better this year, which will mean fewer 1-run squeakers. I think this is true too. I expect us to score from 60-100 more runs this year, and this will help a lot. But it won't eliminate tight contests which depend on a shut-down bullpen to win.

 

So what is to be done?? Well, nothing can be done at the moment. Kenny Williams chose the promise (and leverage - since Garland wasn't signed and Contreras still isn't signed) of having Javier Vasquez in the rotation instead of the relative security of having El Duque and Jose Vizcaino in the bullpen (with McCarthy in a more natural starting role). This was a very risky choice given Dustin Hermanson's balky back. It is a choice that may bite us, since we didn't try to cover ourselves by going after a quality free agent reliever to stabilize the bullpen. (BTW - I'm not suggesting we reverse the choice.)

 

One hope is that the MAGIC MAN, DON COOPER, can ride to the rescue. Cooper didn't fix Boone Logan's delivery, but he may have fixed Matt Thornton's, and he can probably get McCarthy to make the transition to the bullpen. Certainly, he has helped Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte become dominating set up men.

 

Baseball sense suggests that having all these "rookies" in the bullpen is going to cost us dearly. Thus my need to rant.

 

But it is also possible it won't. We may not do as well in 1-run contests this year -- regression to the mean alone suggests we won't -- but that doesn't mean we can't keep it together as a team and play great baseball, staying at the very least in the hunt for another division title. By midseason, if we need help, we also know that Kenny Williams will do everything possible to pick up a veteran arm if we need one (or two). And maybe, just maybe, our 4 "rookies" in the pen will perform like veterans. If that happens, it could make 2006 every bit as magical as 2005.

 

GO GET EM ROOKS!!

 

GO WHITE SOX, 2005 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!!!!!!

[fathom]

I'm usually one of the first people to rip on VAfan, but I think he makes a great overall point here.

[Harry Chappas]

I did a Gary Ganews and speed read of your write-up and all I can say is, which teams have stronger bullpens and how much stronger are they.

 

Would you have rather given a veteran with arm problems a few million dollars.

 

Should we make the playoffs guess what, a pitcher that would be a #2 on any team and a #1 on over half in baseball goes to the pen, possibly two guys that would be #1's or #2's.

 

I see your point but I am not sure anything wise could have been done. Bobby Jenks and Neil Cotts have World Series experience. I'll take them over Mike Myers, Scott Eyre and Bob Howry. Vizcaino and El Duque would be nice but Javier Vazquez is better.

 

Our pen is being asked to be good, not awesome. Right now, I think the talent is there to be good. A healthy Hermanson would have made it pretty good. Things happen.

 

This organization is pretty bright, I trust them.

[Chisoxfn]

I completely agree with this. Our bullpen was ripped to shreds this off-season, losing 3 key contributors and were filling in the pieces with rookies.

 

Jenks is out of shape

McCarthy isn't a reliever (and I still expect him to figure things out in the pen, but I'm getting concerned)

Logan is a flat out rookie

Thornton has been awful (although he seems to have made a bit of progress.

 

We had a rotation that was very strong, but we upgraded that while tearing the bullpen to shreds. Its a big mistake and it could very well cost us if Kenny doesn't make changes.

 

It ticks me off because we went from having one of the best bullpens in baseball to possibly one of the worse and it kills me that a team with a 90+ million payroll whose defending world series champs is going into the start of the season with this many question marks in the pen.

[Guest JimH]

I'm usually one of the first people to rip on VAfan, but I think he makes a great overall point here. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I agree it's a fair point(s) but the comment on El Duque is incorrect. The Sox asked him if he'd come out of the bullpen in '06, he reiterated he is a starter, and that's why his name came up in talks with the Dbacks.

[fathom]

It ticks me off because we went from having one of the best bullpens in baseball to possibly one of the worse and it kills me that a team with a 90+ million payroll whose defending world series champs is going into the start of the season with this many question marks in the pen.

 

It pisses me off because we have so much talent and money invested in our starting pitching, yet we have so much uncertainty with our bullpen. I admire what KW did to bolster our offense this season, but I think he really overlooked the one aspect of our team which really was underrated last season.

[Balta1701]

I agree it's a fair point(s) but the comment on El Duque is incorrect.  The Sox asked him if he'd come out of the bullpen in '06, he reiterated he is a starter, and that's why his name came up in talks with the Dbacks.

Worse yet, he'd be a $5 million reliever who we can't count on to stay healthier than Hermanson for much of the season. He couldn't stay healthy with 5-6 days off inbetween 5 inning starts, what makes us think he could stay healthy having to work more days but less innings, especially when he's not used to it?

[fathom]

I agree it's a fair point(s) but the comment on El Duque is incorrect.  The Sox asked him if he'd come out of the bullpen in '06, he reiterated he is a starter, and that's why his name came up in talks with the Dbacks.

 

I didn't even look at that point. Basically, I just read the premise of his post, and then added my approval of the overall point. I'm thrilled that Duque is gone.

[beck72]

In essence, you are saying the sox should have kept Luis Vizcaino as Hermanson insurance. Maybe that's the fault you could find with KW's moves. Yet it was probably the only way to swing getting Vazquez. IMO, the Sox are better with Vazquez in the rotation and BMac in the bullpen than having El Duque and Luis. [You are technically correct about BMac being a rookie. Yet he showed remarkable poise like a veteran late last year--he's certainly not a worry of mine helping out in the bullpen]. I liken McCarthy's role in the sox bullpen to that of Scot Shields. I don't expect him to replicate Shields success. Yet he should be able to approach 2/3 of what Shields can do--a mid 3.00 ERA, 80-90 IP, close to 5-10 wins, 5-10 saves.

 

What else should have KW done, though, with the FA market outrageous [and not very good besides the few overpriced guys]? You didn't say what moves you would have made.

 

You can mark me down as saying the bullpen will work out fine [barring two, three injuries of course]. The current cast of characters should hold up fine until the trade deadline and the sox can get reinforcements.

[Chisoxfn]

It pisses me off because we have so much talent and money invested in our starting pitching, yet we have so much uncertainty with our bullpen.  I admire what KW did to bolster our offense this season, but I think he really overlooked the one aspect of our team which really was underrated last season.

He didn't just overlook it, he pissed away the depth we had there. Trading for Vazquez is fine and dandy, but if your going to give up 2/6th's of our pen and lose another 1/3rd do to injury I expect to see quality replacements brought in.

 

I have no problem developing a guy or so to start the seaosn or even 2 if we had 4 quality relievers that are proven, but this many, its flat out ridiculous.

 

In this day and age bullpens are a key to not only making the playoffs but winning in the playoffs and I fear we will be blowing games left and right and well our farm system doesn't exactly have the depth to go out and acquire 3 GOOD relievers and hell possibly a closer.

[SSH2005]

The argument for Matt Thornton and Boone Logan makes a lot of sense and I can't really disagree. But Jenks was going to be depended on this season no matter what. It's not like Jenks wasn't going to have a spot in our bullpen after last season. And adding Vazquez pushed McCarthy to the bullpen. I can't really fault Kenny for improving the rotation even more at the expense of McCarthy. Vazquez in the rotation with McCarthy in the bullpen is still better than McCarthy/El Duque in the rotation with Vizcaino in the bullpen.

[Guest JimH]

Worse yet, he'd be a $5 million reliever who we can't count on to stay healthier than Hermanson for much of the season.  He couldn't stay healthy with 5-6 days off inbetween 5 inning starts, what makes us think he could stay healthy having to work more days but less innings, especially when he's not used to it?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Yes. And there are already loud whispers he's not healthy in Arizona.

[Chisoxfn]

Yes.  And there are already loud whispers he's not healthy in Arizona.

Oh ya, good riddance to Duque. I long hoped we could get rid of him. My flaws werent necessarily with getting Vazquez, although I thought it was a completely useless trade (however I am excited to see what he could do) simply because I'm perfectly comfortable with keeping Chris Young as ammo later in the year and giving McCarhty a shot.

 

I'm more than willing to go with our top 4 and McCarthy to start the year and have enough ammo in the farm system to get guys if necessary and than focus my money on another reliever and of course finding a team willing to take Duque off our hands.

 

And while this is all in hindsight I do think I was said right after the trade (after we lost Marte and Viz) that these would be fine moves as long as he replaces these guys with solid major leaguers because our system has crap. He didn't and I think the team is going to pay the price.

[Guest JimH]

Well if we look at it closely, we have McCarthy in the Hermanson role.

 

Boone Logan is in the Marte role.

 

Thornton is in the Vizcaino role.

 

Jenks, Cotts, and Politte have the same roles.

 

No denying they are pretty green in the pen.

[fathom]

Yes.  And there are already loud whispers he's not healthy in Arizona.

 

Jim...you know I hate Duque. I'm so happy he's gone because not only is his salary way too high for a long reliever, but I'm not sure Ozzie would know how to use him effectively (and yes, I know he was great in the postseason).

 

I still think our team would have been stronger if we would have traded Contreras for a stud reliever (Lidge) and another pitching prospect. Then, McCarthy could have moved into the starting rotation (where I think his change-up is better suited).

[SSH2005]

El Duque was just the overpriced junk that the Diamondbacks had to take on to get Chris Young. The Sox WANTED to dump him. Especially since he only wanted to be a starter and definately wasn't going to even over McCarthy. This is why El Duque had no problem leaving and didn't say a bad word about the Sox when he left.

[fathom]

I still think that either Cotts or Politte is going to come crashing back to eart after their seasons last year. I'm pretty confident that Logan won't be too bad. Jenks, on the other hand, is a total unknown for a full season.

[Jimbo's Drinker]

Marte and Vizcaino pretty much sucked most of the year. If the sox are competitive, trades will be made. I for one am really excited for the progress of Thorton and Boone boy.

[SSH2005]

Jim...you know I hate Duque.  I'm so happy he's gone because not only is his salary way too high for a long reliever, but I'm not sure Ozzie would know how to use him effectively (and yes, I know he was great in the postseason).

 

I still think our team would have been stronger if we would have traded Contreras for a stud reliever (Lidge) and another pitching prospect.  Then, McCarthy could have moved into the starting rotation (where I think his change-up is better suited).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hate to say it but that rumored Dye + Contreras for Abreu + Gavin Floyd trade wouldn't look too bad right now either, minus Abreu's salary of course. Gavin Floyd had a great spring and is now the Phillies' 5th starter. They pushed Ryan Franklin to the pen because they think Gavin Floyd has finally "found it."

 

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/NASAp...t=.jsp&c_id=phi

 

This wouldn't have helped our bullpen any though.

Edited March 31, 2006 by SSH2005

[ptatc]

Yes.  And there are already loud whispers he's not healthy in Arizona.

 

With the condition his shoulder is in, he will not be healthy for any long stretch of time. Also, in regards to the bullpen, his shoulder would not allow him to be an effective member of a bullpen. He would need to warm up an inning before he was needed, would have to be used if warmed up and probably would not be able to go two days in a row.

 

Most of this was discussed ad nauseum last year around the playoffs and is the reason he needed to be traded in the off season.

 

We traded the two pitchers in the bullpen who most people complained about last year (Marte and Viz) and people still complain.

 

[fathom]

Marte and Vizcaino pretty much sucked most of the year.  If the sox are competitive, trades will be made.  I for one am really excited for the progress of Thorton and Boone boy.

 

Vizcaino didn't suck. He had about 4 or 5 bad games, but besides that, he was pretty reliable. So many of us were busy bashing him, that we overlooked how many big outs he actually got for us.

[Guest JimH]

Jim...you know I hate Duque.  I'm so happy he's gone because not only is his salary way too high for a long reliever, but I'm not sure Ozzie would know how to use him effectively (and yes, I know he was great in the postseason).

 

I still think our team would have been stronger if we would have traded Contreras for a stud reliever (Lidge) and another pitching prospect.  Then, McCarthy could have moved into the starting rotation (where I think his change-up is better suited).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Could be but who knows if that trade could've been made. Lidge is a Boras guy is he not?

 

The White Sox are famous for trying to buy relief pitching low. Jenks is a good example and so is Thornton. I still think they will bolster their depth for AAA with another arm they like.

 

But no doubt, your scenario is another way they probably could've gone, whether it was Lidge or someone else. They likely could've gotten "some" relief pitching in exchange for Jose. But here is the other thing to consider ... they are fully insured at starting pitching. A reliever is generally easier to get midseason than a starter.

[fathom]

We traded the two pitchers in the bullpen who most people complained about last year (Marte and Viz) and people still complain.

 

 

Not a soul would have complained if we would have just replaced them with legit major league pitchers. Also, I think that the crapiness that has been Bobby Jenks so far is showing how uncertain our bullpen is.

[Frankensteiner]

He didn't just overlook it, he pissed away the depth we had there.  Trading for Vazquez is fine and dandy, but if your going to give up 2/6th's of our pen and lose another 1/3rd do to injury I expect to see quality replacements brought in.

 

I have no problem developing a guy or so to start the seaosn or even 2 if we had 4 quality relievers that are proven, but this many, its flat out ridiculous. 

 

I have to disagree with you there. The guys we traded away from the bullpen weren't exactly dependable relievers. Marte had confidence issues, Duque had injury questions, and there's a reason Vizcaino was nicknamed jizz-can for part of the season. His overall numbers looked OK, but I could count on one hand the number of meaningful outs he recorded last year.

 

Also, as I've said before, relievers are by far the easiest commodity to acquire in mid-season trades. When teams start falling out of the race, there's going to be a ton of these guys available. Maybe not closers, but dependable guys that a team could use in the 6th-8th innings.

[Balta1701]

Ok, I for one am going to turn this around and be the optimist on our bullpen. Then again, I usually wind up being the optimist, but anywho, I can type pretty fast.

 

I think the Sox are in a pretty good position with regards to their bullpen, for several key reasons:

 

1. The Sox have several people who can close. Bobby Jenks is naturally at the top of that list, but if he winds up unable to close, just like we had Hermanson as a backup last year, we have Cotts as a decent backup this year. IMO, the Closer still remains by far the biggest key to your bullpen. If you have a good closer, you can have basically nothing else around him and your bullpen will still look decent.

 

Think about last year with the Cubs. Their bullpen was s*** the first 2 months of the season, then they moved Dempster to the closer's role, and suddenly everything looked better. Think about the 04 Dodgers; Depodesta traded away everything from his bullpen except his closer, and they still had a good bullpen (Gagne got himself hurt because of that mess, but that's another story). Think about the Yankees with Rivera, or how the Red Sox look with and Without Foulke.

 

If we can have just 1 guy who can hold down the fort as a closer, we will be in very good shape in the pen no matter what else happens. We may lose games if all we have is the closer, but we will win enough that no one will notice.

 

2. The Bullpen is going to be used even less than last year no matter how many innings people threw last year. Why? Because we have 5+ "innings eaters" on our starting staff. Last year, El Duque was only able to throw 128 innings. He barely averaged 5 innings per start. Just having him in the rotation guaranteed our bullpen was going to have to throw 4-5 innings at least every time through the rotation.

 

With Vazquez in his place, we are just going to need the bullpen less and less. The guy throws 200+ innings every year, and that's a ton less innings going to the pen. Especially if they follow their word to get McCarthy 100+ innings as well.

 

3. We have 2 converted starters in our bullpen. Last year, the longest we ever really saw anyone go out of the bullpen was Viz throwing 2.1 innings or Jenks occasionally throwing 3. So every time we got wrapped up in one of them 13-14 inning games where neither team can score, we used our entire bullpen (and sometimes lost the game because all we had left were walker/Adkins).

 

With both McCarthy and Thornton out there...we have 2 guys who are able to keep the bullpen from having to blow itself out. Both of them can throw 4-5 innings out of the pen if the game is tied late and we need them to do so. This can let us keep people fresher. Big advantage.

 

4. Yes, we have a lot of youth out in the bullpen. But there are also advantages to youth. Specifically: health. We have what, 2 guys over 30 in our pen, and 1 of them is already on the DL? Aside from the guy with the screw in his elbow, there's really no reason to expect that the bullpen is going to struggle to stay healthy this year.

 

5. Raw talent. We b**** and moan about how Minnesota is able to bring up these guys who can throw 96+ all the time. Well right now, we have managed to pick up a guy who can throw 99+ from the right side and a guy who can hit 97 from the left side. On top of that, we have 2 other lefties who can hit the low 90's and seem to have good control, and a righty in the low to mid 90's. Oh, and another righty who can hit 93-94.

 

6. Left-handers. Ozzie wants to play the matchup game? There are teams that go entire seasons without being able to make use of a LOOGY. We have f***ing 3 of them.

 

7. Coaching staff. We've already seen what Ozzie and Cooper can do for our starting rotation, we've already seen what they were able to do with Cotts, we've already seen what they were able to do with Politte, Hermanson, Jenks, etc. These guys are damn good at getting the most out of our pitchers.

 

8. Catchers. The same guys who were shaken off 2 times last year by Buehrle are calling pitches for these guys too.

 

Are there bullpens better than ours? On paper, probably. But I still think we're going to be surprised how good of shape we're in, especially if Bobby can keep building velocity and can settle into the closer's role full time. We're well set up for this run. I'm just vastly less nervous than most of you are.

 

Edit: forgot 1. Offense. We've massively upgraded the bench/sunday lineup, and we've massively upgraded our DH spot. I've harped on this since last year, but we also had 4 or 5 guys who really disappointed with the bats last year. Score more runs and you'll need the bullpen less, or you'll be able to bail the pen out even more. Last year we were only about 60 runs from being the #4 offense in the league. We've got a real shot @ top 5 this year.

Edited March 31, 2006 by Balta1701