Funny Indians Prediction

[RME JICO]

http://www.letsgotribe.com

Why We'll Win

 

By Jay

Posted on Sun Apr 02, 2006 at 07:57:47 PM EST

 

The Indians are going to win the division in 2006.  They're going to be a very good team, maybe even a great one.

 

The national prognosticators like the Indians, even if a slim plurality likes the White Sox a little better.  It says a lot about the Indians that they're considered to be just a hair behind the defending champions, who always carry a presumption of superiority.  It says a lot that even though the White Sox added Vazquez and Thome, and the Indians added, um, a little less than that ... the Indians are still almost running even with them.

 

I'm here to tell you, the Indians are even better than the experts and projectionists think -- and for that matter, they're even better than you think.  And here's why.

 

A Great Offense.  The Indians led the majors in scoring for the last four months of the 2005 season.  In fact, it wasn't even close.  Boone finally turned the corner on his injury.  Sizemore and Peralta took off and never looked back.  Guess what?  Boone isn't going to be un-rehabbed, and Sizemore and Peralta aren't rookies who need to adjust anymore -- and Eddie Murray won't be coming back.  And by the way, none of these in-season trends are accounted for by any of the projection systems.  We're not just getting the 2005 lineup back nearly intact.  We're getting the late-2005 lineup.  They are a real threat to lead the league in scoring.

 

No Post-Career-Year Slumps.  Seriously, was anyone all that much better than we expected them to be?  Sure, there were a few players, but they were all (a) guys we got rid of, and (B) guys who were under 25.  The guys we got rid of (Millwood and Howry) will do their regressions on someone else's dime.  As for the guys under 25 ... when young guys break out, it isn't a career year.  It's development.  Peralta may take a step back based on BABIP luck alone, but he may also hit 30 home runs.  The White Sox were chock full of hitters having career-years -- including pretend-star Paul Konerko -- and still only cobbled together a mediocre offense.  Even if Thome comes back to have a nice season, they will still struggle to score runs.

 

Tougher Rotation.  Is it just me, or are our Big Three starting to feel like grizzled veterans?  Forget Millwood -- any of those three is capable of stealing an ERA title. Byrd is not as good as Millwood, but the difference is not as great as you might think.  Johnson is a step up from Elarton.  As for injury risks -- what exactly is the risk? That we might have to throw one of our incredibly talented and totally ripened prospects in there?  This rotation is capable of being the best in the division.

 

Improved Bullpen.  Don't believe it?  Relievers are incredibly volatile -- because they pitch so few innings, it's hard to figure out who's really good and who ain't, so teams fluctuate wildly from year to year.  But one of the few consistent things you can plan around is strikeouts -- get relievers who pile up strikeouts, and you should be okay.  Did you know that Shapiro got rid of two of our worst relievers in terms of strikeouts -- Riske and Howry -- and replaced them with two strikeout machines -- Mota and Cabrera? A healthy Matt Miller will also help.

 

Great Closer.  I know, I know.  Nobody gives big fat Bob Wickman any damned respect.  But how many closers consistently get the save in about 90 percent of their chances, year after year after year?  I'll tell you how many:  Four.  And Bob Wickman is one of him.  So show him a a little damned respect.  It's true that he allowed way too many baserunners last season and seemed to luck out of three jams a week.  But have you looked at his second-half numbers?  The 25-7 K/BB in 29 innings?  The 2.17 ERA?  It's true that a 37-year-old can go at any time.  But Bob is a much better closer than you think.

 

No Holes.  The Killer B's were bad last year ... but not horrible.  Our competition has several horrible hitters. We don't have any. And at our most suspect positions, we have true power hitters ready to step in.  Boone has Marte, and in a way Belliard also has Marte.  Blake has Dubois and Mulhern.  Broussard has Perez, Mulhern and Garko.  We are going to have a tough lineup, one through nine, one way or another.

 

MVP Candidates.  Four of them.  We don't need four MVP candidates, but it can't hurt.

 

The Prepared Mind. "Chance favors the prepared mind," as Louis Pasteur said.  Has any team ever had a more prepared mind than these Indians?  The Indians know all about PECOTA and Zips -- but the Indians also have their own projection system plus the requisite small army of scouts plus one of the most advanced medical programs in the game.  PECOTA is great -- and PECOTA loves the Indians -- but the Indians front office is even better.  When luck gives this team an opportunity, on-field or off, they are going to pounce.

 

Payroll Flexibility.  The Indians spent some $5 to $10 million less in the offseason than they had budgeted for.  There just wasn't anything good to spend money on.  That, along with a surplus of outfield and pitching prospects, widens the net considerably for the kinds of trades the team can consider after May.

 

Great Defense. We may not know how to measure it yet, but everybody who's working on it says the Indians prevented runs like crazy last year.  This season should be just as good if not better, as former novices Blake, Peralta and Sizemore continue to master their positions.

 

A Great Team.  We had a great team in 2005 -- whether or not you noticed.

 

Indians fans don't appreciate how great this team is.  All they seem to remember is that we missed the playoffs.  Forgotten are the 93 wins in a tough division -- the sixth-best record in the majors.  Forgotten is the fourth-best lineup in the league and the best pitching and defense.  How many teams were in the Top Five in both offense and pitching/defense?  Just one:  The Indians.  The other elite pitching staffs had miserable lineups.  The league's great lineups had miserable pitching staffs.  The Indians have it all.

 

Ask yourself this question:  If the Indians had won 93 games and made the playoffs -- in any way -- would you still be nitpicking the bunts and trades and Killer B's?  Would you still feel so ambivalent about them?  Or would you be hailing their return to contention?

 

The local beat writers have put out the myth that the 2005 Indians were lucky to get to 93 wins.  They did enjoy some good fortune -- an exceptionally healthy pitching staff, young players surpassing expectations -- but it wasn't all luck.  Team health is a priority for the Indians.  Drafting and development are priorities.  These things are not accidents.  You're going to see most of those kinds of luck carry over.  Meanwhile, over in Chicago, a team encountered every type of luck known to baseball.  Career years from role players.  Efficient run-scoring.  One-run victories -- many against divisional rivals.  Winning in a short postseason series.  Players getting hot at just the right time.

 

I take nothing away from the White Sox.  But were they really any better than the Indians?  Was their pitching better?  No.  Was their defense better?  No.  Was their hitting better?  Hell no.  Only their luck was better.

 

The 2005 Indians earned every one of their 93 wins.  They weren't lucky.  In fact, with average luck, they would have won even more games.  They had great pitching, great hitting and great defense.  That team could have won 100 games.

 

The 2006 Indians will once again contend to have the division's best pitching staff.  They could outscore their rivals by as many as 80 runs.

 

This is a very good team, maybe even a great team, and they will win the American League Central. Believe it.

 

What year did this guy watch baseball? Sox had hitters with career years, yet no one batted over .290? Konerko is a pretend star? Back to back 40HR/100RBI seasons and he is pretending? Every type of luck known to babeball? Winning a short post season? Are you serious? The only reason it was short was because the Sox dominated. Would it have been better if the Sox went 11-5?

 

It just cracks me up how people cannot make predictions about their own team without discrediting the Sox. So in a nutshell, he said the Indians were and are a better team than the Sox and they didn't have career years or every type of luck known to baseball. I guess he missed Opening Day.

[DBAHO]

Good Lord. I honestly don't know where to begin on that.

[Heads22]

I suppose we didn't prove ourselves in a one-run game last nite. Damn us.

[whitesoxfan101]

They lost 3 good bullpen arms, 2 of their best starters, and one of their better everyday players. We added Jim Thome, Javy Vasquez, and 2 damn good and versatile bench players in Rob Mac and Cintron. Clearly the fact that we got better and they got worse after a year we went 14-5 against them and won the Central by 6 games makes Cleveland the favorites.

[G&T]

They lost 3 good bullpen arms, 2 of their best starters, and one of their better everyday players.  We added Jim Thome, Javy Vasquez, and 2 damn good and versatile bench players in Rob Mac and Cintron.  Clearly the fact that we got better and they got worse after a year we went 14-5 against them and won the Central by 6 games makes Cleveland the favorites.

 

I have to agree. Yeah they have a great offense even without Crisp, but just because the guys are young doesn't mean they will be better than last year. The Sox won with pitching, and will win with pitching. The Indian's staff is worse than last year.

[RME JICO]

At the same site they have a game thread for the opening day. These comments remind me of Cubs fans:

 

Also, it makes me a little sick to see Thome in a White Sox uniform.

 

Thome can burn in hell.

 

Thomes said once "I want to finish my career in Cleveland." 

 

Well, he proved more than anyone else could that it's all about the jack.  No matter what someone says or how they act, it's all about the money.

 

Ball one ... the division is basically won at this point.

 

Might as well give C.C. the Cy Young right now

 

I think it needs to be said ... no matter what the announcers say ... tapping a slow roller for an infield hit is not "manufacturing runs."  It's just garbage.

 

The best thing about these three runs? No "productive outs" nonsense. Way to go Tribe!

 

I have to say, that was much stronger groundout than the ones Boone was hitting a year ago.

 

Bleeping Thome.

 

Curtain call?  #$@$% him.

 

He hit a "meatball"!

Hello everyone,

Jim Thome hit a "meatball."  Big deal.  Ben Broussard could have hit that pitch; just about anyone could have hit that pitch.  If it was the Cabrera of last year, Thome would have never hit him.

 

Talk about a lucky inning...

 

well, at least we know their rookie CF is dumber than dirt...

 

Because there is no such thing as a Whiter Sox fan!

 

Worst.Game.Ever.

[G&T]

So I guess this guy is the new Batgirl?

[WCSox]

The White Sox were chock full of hitters having career-years -- including pretend-star Paul Konerko -- and still only cobbled together a mediocre offense.  Even if Thome comes back to have a nice season, they will still struggle to score runs.

 

Right, because Paulie never had a 40-HR season before last year. Or perhaps by "career-year", he meant that Paulie never hit a grand slam in the WS before?

 

As for injury risks -- what exactly is the risk?

 

Yeah, what't the risk in having a starter whose ass has it's own moon?

 

Improved Bullpen.  Don't believe it?

 

If an 8.21 ERA is "improved", I'd hate to see what last season's numbers were like!

 

Was their pitching better?

 

Yes.

 

Was their defense better?

 

Yes.

 

Was their hitting better?

 

I'll give him this one. Then again, we didn't have Thome last year. I don't think that ball has landed yet!

[NorthSideSox72]

The "lucky" argument for the Sox winning it all last year is so absurd, its laughable.

 

These same statheads who just cannot fathom why their stats said the Sox didn't win, fail to see the obvious, most reliable stat there is - W. The Sox were in first for all 162 games, and then went 11-1 in the postseason. That is about 2000 innings of baseball, tens of thousands of at bats, and millions of individual events. What does everyone know about stats? That the bigger the sample size, the more reliable the measure is.

 

After millions of individual picthes, bounces, throws, bases, catches, hits and everything else... LUCK IS EVENED OUT!!!!!

 

The Sox won in 2005 because they were the best team in baseball. If your pet stat(s) doesn't tell you that, then maybe you need to re-think your pet stat(s).

[YASNY]

Since the start of the 2005 season, we now have a .750 winning pct against the tribe, but we are just lucky. Hmmmmm, ok.

[WCSox]

Or perhaps the Indians weren't able to get a ring back in the '90s because they were just "unlucky"?

 

I find it amusing that many of the same Indians fans who boasted and ripped the Sox to shreds on the Web back then are eating some serious crow right now. Same goes for the arrogant, obnoxious fans who made trips to "Comiskey Park" when the Tribe was in town because they couldn't get tickets to see them at the Jake. Something tells me that they won't be making fun of our ballpark anymore.

 

To quote Jim Thome, "It doesn't mean a thing without the ring."

 

[whitesoxfan101]

The thing people seem to forget is AJ hit about 50 points below his career average last year and Dye put up about career average numbers for when he is healthy. Nobody on on offense really overperformed to be honest with you, the only "luck" we had was our pitching stayed healthy, and that isn't as much luck as it is building a staff of pitchers who don't have arm problems.

[thedoctor]

meh. it's some stupid douche on an indians message board. what do we expect?

[iWiN4PreP]

what a joke of an article.

[vandy125]

That was good for a laugh.

[WCSox]

The thing people seem to forget is AJ hit about 50 points below his career average last year and Dye put up about career average numbers for when he is healthy.  Nobody on on offense really overperformed to be honest with you, the only "luck" we had was our pitching stayed healthy, and that isn't as much luck as it is building a staff of pitchers who don't have arm problems.

 

I guess one could argue that Crede over-performed down the stretch and that we got "lucky" with career years from Garland, Hermanson, Cotts, and Politte. Then again, we were also "unlucky" with injuries to Frank, Hermanson, El Duque and Pods. The former two were pretty much worthless for the playoffs.

[SuperSteve]

Articles like that make me sad. When people tell me that (Tigers fans), I ask who had a career year. Politte is the only one IMHO. Cotts is only going to get better. Garland might not get as many wins, but I see him being similar this year.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Good Lord. I honestly don't know where to begin on that.

 

LOL. I don't even know how to respond. I'm amazed that somebody can be that uninformed.

[Wedge]

Let's see, the Sox dominated the Indians last season and now have added a potential ace and potential MVP caliber hitter who can have a positive residual effect on the rest of the line-up as a DH and two super-subs and yet the Indians got better in the offseason because they cut their best starting pitcher from last season, have an even worse bullpen (and I didn't think that was possible from last year), but will be better than the Sox because they're a sure thing to play like they did on their hot streak for the whole season. Infallible logic.

[WHarris1]

Some people you just have to :headshake at

[Rowand44]

I agree with the whole article. Well done piece.

[WilliamTell]

This made me laugh. I'll be the first to say we did have some good breaks last year, but I'm a believe in you make your own breaks and the Sox did that, just like the Twins did the past few years.

[Jordan4life_2007]

This made me laugh. I'll be the first to say we did have some good breaks last year, but I'm a believe in you make your own breaks and the Sox did that, just like the Twins did the past few years.

 

Are you trying to tell me the '05 Sox weren't the only team in modern sports history to catch a few breaks? Go figure.

[witesoxfan]

I agree with the whole article.  Well done piece.

 

Agreed completely. Very objective analysis of the Indians and White Sox.

[whitesoxfan101]

I agree with the whole article.  Well done piece.