Brewers

[hammerhead johnson]

I'm not sure, whatever ESPN uses. There are also several other fairly effective starters with WHIPS above 1.2, like Freddy, Vazquez, Sabathia, and Webb.

 

The 1.20 range is damn good. But if you're at 1.45 like Capuano and Davis? You suck, and there is absolutely no doubt about that. Keep in mind that I'm looking strictly at road numbers in this particular case.

[RockRaines]

What do you think of those Home vs. Road stats that I posted?  You don't think that both Capuano and Davis are products of Miller Park?  I don't think that they have much talent at all, but I suppose that's just me. 

 

Put them in Houston, and they're just as wack as the other guys in their 3-4-5.  But they pitch in Milwaukee, and people (for whatever reason) don't realize that Miller Park is a pitching haven, so I dunno.

SO what? They pitch in half their games there dont they? Ohka put up good starting pitching numbers in other stadiums as well. Freddy Garcia pitches better on the road than at home, does that makes him garbage?

 

Seriously, its admirable that you like arguing just for the sake of arguing, but the rotation in Milwaukee is probably the 2nd best in their division. Which is good enough to make them a favorite.

[RockRaines]

Hey Rock, I did some research for you.  You know, because it is soooo silly that I only brought up WHIP numbers.  :rolly

 

Chris Capuano 2005 Splits:

1.45 Road WHIP vs. 1.33 Home WHIP

.280 Road BAA v. .235 Home BAA

4.30 Road ERA vs. 3.70 Home ERA

 

Doug Davis 2005 Splits:

1.44 Road WHIP vs. 1.20 Home WHIP

.256 Road BAA vs. .218 Home BAA

4.50 Road ERA vs. 3.40 Home ERA

 

Toma Ohka's home numbers:

.290 BAA

1.45 WHIP

 

Learn about baseball stadiums.  See which parks are pitchers havens.  Miller Park would qualify.  Check the effing stats FOR TEH LOVE OF GOD.

BTW Ohka has 11 IP in Miller park, nice sample size.

 

And once again, what is the problem with them being good at home and worse on the road? Is it too out of the question to think that they follow the norm of being better in their home park? As far as rotations in their divisionm they are probably the 2nd best only to ST Louis IMO, which could win them the division or the wild card no problem.

[hammerhead johnson]

SO what?  They pitch in half their games there dont they?  Ohka put up good starting pitching numbers in other stadiums as well.  Freddy Garcia pitches better on the road than at home, does that makes him garbage?

 

Seriously, its admirable that you like arguing just for the sake of arguing, but the rotation in Milwaukee is probably the 2nd best in their division.  Which is good enough to make them a favorite.

 

I am just arguing for th sake of arguing?

 

Have you watched Ohka pitch on numerous occasions? He is below average at best. His home numbers in a freaking pitcher's park last year tell the story.

 

USCF is a hitting haven. Of course Freddy and the rest of the White Sox starters are going to look better on the road.

 

Milwaukee has the second best rotation in the NL Central? While I'm not at all impressed with 5 out of the 6 rotations in that division, I don't have the balls to say that they're the second best, because their rotation flat out sucks. Major suckfest.

 

So, there's a little more aguing for the sake of arguing. Now, tell me all about Capuano's .280 BAA on the road, or Doug's 4.50 ERA on the road.

[ZoomSlowik]

What do you think of those Home vs. Road stats that I posted?  You don't think that both Capuano and Davis are products of Miller Park?  I don't think that they have much talent at all, but I suppose that's just me. 

 

Put them in Houston, and they're just as wack as the other guys in their 3-4-5.  But they pitch in Milwaukee, and people (for whatever reason) don't realize that Miller Park is a pitching haven, so I dunno.

 

They're not that good, but the other team has to deal with the same conditions. If they play in Milwaukee the other pitcher has the same advantage, and if they play in Cincinnati they have the same diadvantage. Capuano managed to win 18 last year, so he can't be all bad. Yes, it was a Russ Ortiz-esque 18, but he still won that many.

 

I'd still rather have Davis and Capuano instead of the bottom 3 in Houston's no matter where they pitch. Thier road numbers are still better than what those pitchers posted. Outside of some flashes from Backe they're just not very good. Hell, Backe was better at home than away (3.91 ERA at home, 5.83 away).

[hammerhead johnson]

BTW Ohka has 11 IP in Miller park, nice sample size.

 

And once again, what is the problem with them being good at home and worse on the road?  Is it too out of the question to think that they follow the norm of being better in their home park?  As far as rotations in their divisionm they are probably the 2nd best only to ST Louis IMO, which could win them the division or the wild card no problem.

 

LEARN ABOUT BASEBALL STADIUMS. Get to know them, frequent them. If I'm evaluating starters, I'm looking at splits. If a guy sucks in Cincinatti, it doesn't necessarily mean that he's a bad overall pitcher. If a guy puts up nice numbers in Los Angeles or San Francisco, it DOES NOT mean that he is a good pitcher. Right?

[hammerhead johnson]

They're not that good, but the other team has to deal with the same conditions. If they play in Milwaukee the other pitcher has the same advantage, and if they play in Cincinnati they have the same diadvantage. Capuano managed to win 18 last year, so he can't be all bad. Yes, it was a Russ Ortiz-esque 18, but he still won that many.

 

I'd still rather have Davis and Capuano instead of the bottom 3 in Houston's no matter where they pitch. Thier road numbers are still better than what those pitchers posted. Outside of some flashes from Backe they're just not very good. Hell, Backe was better at home than away (3.91 ERA at home, 5.83 away).

 

Good comparison between Capuano and Russ Ortiz. That is actually perfect. Neither one has much talent at all, although Russ is a fierce competitor.

 

I'd rather have Capuano or Davis as opposed to Backe as well, but that ain't saying much.

 

I dunno, we'll see. I even had Capuano on my fantasy squad last year. I caught a few of his games. I had to drop him with the quickness, no doubt.

[RockRaines]

I am just arguing for th sake of arguing?   

 

Have you watched Ohka pitch on numerous occasions?  He is below average at best.  His home numbers in a freaking pitcher's park last year tell the story.

 

USCF is a hitting haven.  Of course Freddy and the rest of the White Sox starters are going to look better on the road.

 

Milwaukee has the second best rotation in the NL Central?  While I'm not at all impressed with 5 out of the 6 rotations in that division, I don't have the balls to say that they're the second best, because their rotation flat out sucks.  Major suckfest.

 

So, there's a little more aguing for the sake of arguing.  Now, tell me all about Capuano's .280 BAA on the road, or Doug's 4.50 ERA on the road. 

Ok, so now its not based on stats, its based on "have you seen him pitch?" Its obviously that no matter what I say, or post, you wont budge or even take into account the other half of the argument, may its carryover from your NBA opinions.

 

As far as parks go, and which is a hitting park etc, I looked up the 2005 stats on that, and it appears Miller Park was ranked 16th out of 30 as far as park factor. PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

 

Considering that a number below 1.0 coincides with a favorable environment for a pitcher, Miller park comes in as the first stadium in that side of the chart at .992. Just below Wrigley field. Your "hitters haven" minute maid park comes in 23rd at a .949 which makes it one of the best pitchers parks. Of course the correlation could be because of the pitching staff, but the same could be said for Miller Park. Miller Park isnt exactly the pitchers paradise you made it out to be, as it falls just under Wrigley field in PF which is regarded as a hitters park. IN fact in 2004 Miller Park was known as a hitters park with a 1.004 PF rating ranking them 11th.

 

Now addressing your generalization about how the white sox pitchers should be better away from their "hitters park." I only point to Mark Buehrle's 2005 numbers where he had a 2.48 ERA 1.06 WHIP at home and a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 on the road. Is this because he is only good in a certain park, or because its easier for pitcher to throw at home? You decide.

[ZoomSlowik]

The 1.20 range is damn good.  But if you're at 1.45 like Capuano and Davis?  You suck, and there is absolutely no doubt about that.  Keep in mind that I'm looking strictly at road numbers in this particular case.

 

Actually, all those guys I listed were at 1.25 or higher last year, which is starting to creep towards bad. Those guys don't really pitch like it though.

 

These guys obviously have the stuff to get by though. They posted very high strikeout totals and had low BAA. That compensates for the high walk rates a bit. Plus their totals aren't that bad if you actually look at all their numbers instead of picking half of them. I can make a lot of guys look bad if you just want to use splits.

 

As I said, they're not aces, but they're better than a good number of pitchers in their division.

[RockRaines]

LEARN ABOUT BASEBALL STADIUMS.  Get to know them, frequent them.  If I'm evaluating starters, I'm looking at splits.  If a guy sucks in Cincinatti, it doesn't necessarily mean that he's a bad overall pitcher.  If a guy puts up nice numbers in Los Angeles or San Francisco, it DOES NOT mean that he is a good pitcher.  Right?

how does Buehrle have over a 1.4 difference in ERA last year between his home and away splits? Des that mean hes only average because his stats are skewed toward him only being great in his home park?

[ZoomSlowik]

Good comparison between Capuano and Russ Ortiz.  That is actually perfect.  Neither one has much talent at all, although Russ is a fierce competitor.

 

I'd rather have Capuano or Davis as opposed to Backe as well, but that ain't saying much.

 

I dunno, we'll see.  I even had Capuano on my fantasy squad last year.  I caught a few of his games.  I had to drop him with the quickness, no doubt. 

 

Actually, both of those guys have a lot more talent than Ortiz, which is pretty obvious by looking at their strikeout totals and BAA. I used that comparison to say it was a bit of a fluke and that he probably should have won more like 14.

 

That's part of my point. The only other team in the division that really has more than 2 good starters is St. Louis (and I guess the Cubs if they ever get healthy, but we know that's a stretch).

 

It is possible that their ERA's jump this year, but Davis has been fairly good for two years running, and Capuano is young enough that he can improve it. I remember saying the same thing about Carlos Zambrano a couple of years ago, and we know how that turned out.

[hammerhead johnson]

Ok, so now its not based on stats, its based on "have you seen him pitch?"  Its obviously that no matter what I say, or post, you wont budge or even take into account the other half of the argument, may its carryover from your NBA opinions.

 

As far as parks go, and which is a hitting park etc, I looked up the 2005 stats on that, and it appears Miller Park was ranked 16th out of 30 as far as park factor. PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

 

Considering that a number below 1.0 coincides with a favorable environment for a pitcher, Miller park comes in as the first stadium in that side of the chart at .992.  Just below Wrigley field.  Your "hitters haven"  minute maid park comes in 23rd at a .949 which makes it one of the best pitchers parks.   Of course the correlation could be because of the pitching staff, but the same could be said for Miller Park. Miller Park isnt exactly the pitchers paradise you made it out to be, as it falls just under Wrigley field in PF which is regarded as a hitters park.  IN fact in 2004 Miller Park was known as a hitters park with a 1.004 PF rating ranking them 11th.

 

Now addressing your generalization about how the white sox pitchers should be better away from their "hitters park."  I only point to Mark Buehrle's 2005 numbers where he had a 2.48 ERA 1.06 WHIP at home and a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 on the road.  Is this because he is only good in a certain park, or because its easier for pitcher to throw at home?  You decide.

 

Wrigley Field is, for the most part, a favorable park for pitchers. When the wind is blowing in, that place is nuts.

 

Mark Buehrle had the best road ERA in the AL in 2004.

 

I don't care what the PF stats say. Miller Park is a great place to pitch. Even a casual fan knows that. Just try to explain the home vs. away splits for Capuano and Davis.

 

And yeah, I go on what I see and I supplement it with statistics. That's why the NBA stuff is always so funny, because defense just doesn't show up on paper. Larry Hughes is 1st Team All NBA defense, remember.

Edited April 12, 2006 by hammerhead johnson

[hammerhead johnson]

Actually, all those guys I listed were at 1.25 or higher last year, which is starting to creep towards bad. Those guys don't really pitch like it though.

 

These guys obviously have the stuff to get by though. They posted very high strikeout totals and had low BAA. That compensates for the high walk rates a bit. Plus their totals aren't that bad if you actually look at all their numbers instead of picking half of them. I can make a lot of guys look bad if you just want to use splits.

 

As I said, they're not aces, but they're better than a good number of pitchers in their division.

 

1.20 range meaning anything between 1.20 and 1.30. Anything above 1.35 is starting to creep towards bad.

 

Right, their totals look okay (not good) because they pitch at Miller Park. That is the only reason.

[hammerhead johnson]

how does Buehrle have over a 1.4 difference in ERA last year between his home and away splits?  Des that mean hes only average because his stats are skewed toward him only being great in his home park?

 

How quickly do we forget 2004 where he led the American League in road ERA?

 

Remember his home numbers? Didn't his ERA clear 5.00 or whatever?

 

Then we have a gang of numbskulls on here talking about how he's nowhere near an ace.

 

Always remeber these things, Rock.

[RockRaines]

Wrigley Field is, for the most part, a favorable park for pitchers.  When the wind is blowing in, that place is nuts. 

 

Mark Buehrle had the best road ERA in the majors in 2004.

 

I don't care what the PF stats say.  Miller Park is a great place to pitch.  Even a casual fan knows that.  Just try to explain the home vs. away splits for Capuano and Davis. 

 

And yeah, I go on what I see and I supplement it with statistics.  That's why the NBA stuff is always so funny, because defense just doesn't show up on paper.  Larry Hughes is 1st Team All NBA defense, remember. 

Wrigley field has statistically been a great hitters park, especially with the wind blowing out and the short gaps.

 

And the park stats do tell alot, even though there could be a correlation with the pitching staffs. But It is easier to pitch at home, no matter what park you play in. Mark shows that in his dominance in a hitters park, and his almost pedestrian numbers on the road last year. With the Brewers, they have 3 young pitchers this year, and they will definately pitch better with a home crowd. Not to mention, in that division there are probably 3 hitters parks in Cinci, Chicago, St Louis, maybe even Hou. Of course their road splits may not be that great.

 

Fact is, the NL central is weak IMO. The Brewers right now, have the 2nd best rotation in the division until the cubs are healthy. Not to mention they have several young position players that are improving every year. This is why they are picked to be a sleeper. Last year, they finished in 3rd place and were over .500 for the first time in a long time. Their upward trend and having a decently complete pitching staff with a good closer is why they have a chance to surprise people.

[Soxfest]

They seem to be everybody's suprise team.  Can they be that much of a suprise?

 

When teams like Cubs think 2 of 3 is a given they could suprise teams they play not so much baseball fans.

[BigSqwert]

How quickly do we forget 2004 where he led the American League in road ERA?

 

Remember his home numbers?  Didn't his ERA clear 5.00 or whatever?

 

Then we have a gang of numbskulls on here talking about how he's nowhere near an ace.

 

Always remeber these things, Rock. 

Holy crap! What's up with your sig? Is that the old testament?

[hammerhead johnson]

Holy crap!  What's up with your sig?  Is that the old testament?

 

Yeah, that's exactly right.

 

I worship the Old Testament. The new one just blows.

[Chisoxfn]

Zoom, all three were Top 15 in the majors last year:

 

Zambrano 1.15 WHIP

Buehrle 1.18 WHIP

Oswalt 1.20 WHIP

 

I must say that I'm stunned by your post.  WHIP is so much better than ERA that it's not even funny.

My ass. A guy whose a damn good pitcher may walk more than the usual batter and therefor his WHIP may be higher, but he could have stellar stuff and therefor people never get the key hits off him.

 

Look at Millwood last season, he had runners on but he flat out pitches better with runnres on. Sure ERA tends to fluctuate year to year based on luck in a sense, but you don't need a very low WHIP to be a good pitcher. It helps, but its definately not a necessity.

 

Bottom line what wins games, ERA (Runs allowed) or WHIP. You don't get a W because you gave up just 5 hits but also 5 runs. However if you give up 15 hits/walks and only give up 3 runs, well thats the result that matters and if people are posting a consistently good ERA year in year out, than I could give two s***s about what there whip is.

 

I also think people drastically overlook home road splits. Fact is guys sometimes pitch better at certain places than others and there are plenty of people who have better stats at home becuase its there home park and they are more comfortable pithcing in front of there fans, etc.

 

Other pitchers may struggle at there home park because for whatever reason the way they pitch doesn't fit in well for a ball park (maybe a pitcher who really like hammering the ball inside would struggle at Fenway because right handers would be able to get a lot of pulled homers, however at other parks he wouldn't suffer from that.

 

Fact is I can tell people if someone is a good or bad pitcher with my eyes. Stats only back up whether he's actually succeeding or not and some people drastically overlook stats (in fact I think most statty guys do exactly that). And because of it they oow and awe stupid things.

 

For example they appreciate a guy with a .400 OBP yet a .240 AVG over someone with a .300 AVG, a .350 OBP, and a lower OPS than the prior hitter (or at least some do). Thats just stupid, fact is while walks can get you on base, hits are what drives guys in and they don't always go for just one base (plus walks can move guys one base, hits can move guys 2 bases quite often, sometimes more, sometimes less).

 

Hence the reason I think statiticians everywhere over-rate OBP and underrate AVG. If OBP was such a tell all you'd have some different teams in the playoffs this past few years. The Sox wouldn't have won the world series, the Angels wouldn't have made the playoffs, Jeff Francouer wouldn't be a solid player (with a lot of upside)...etc etc.

[Chisoxfn]

Yeah, but the guy who allows the fewest baserunners is the best.  If you're walking too many guys, you're playing with fire, and it doesn't matter how good your stuf is...you're gonna get hammered at times.  You can't be pinpoint with every single pitch, and even if you are, there are a lot of unbelievably talented hitters in this league that will get to you.

 

And if anyone learned anything from the Top 20 WHIP list I maintained last year, the best of the best show up on that list ALWAYS.  Now, on a Top 20 ERA list, that is never the case.  ERA is influenced WAY too much by the stadium that you pitch in.

No the guy who wins 20 games and puts up a good ERA is the best. I realize Wins are an elusive stat but thats what you get paid to do...WIN Games. Sure you can make a point that a guy who wins 22 with a poor ERA got a little lucky, but he still got the wins and thats what this game is about.

 

You don't award Cy Youngs on WHIP.

[Chisoxfn]

BTW Ohka has 11 IP in Miller park, nice sample size.

 

And once again, what is the problem with them being good at home and worse on the road?  Is it too out of the question to think that they follow the norm of being better in their home park?  As far as rotations in their divisionm they are probably the 2nd best only to ST Louis IMO, which could win them the division or the wild card no problem.

Hell some of Okha's numbers have came from Boston which is not a pitchers park.

[hammerhead johnson]

Okay, without even looking at PF numbers (which can be a mindf*** from year to year in some cases), I'd say that these are the 12 best pitching parks in baseball, in no particular order:

 

New York (Mets)

Washington

Florida

Milwaukee

Pittsburgh

Chicago (Cubs)

Los Angeles

San Francisco

San Diego

Oakland

Seattle

Detroit

 

Who am I missing?

 

Wrigley Field is a hitter's nightmare when the wind is blowing in, which is seemingly more often than not.

 

And you know what? I should have brought up Danny Kolb when we were discussing Miller Park before. That dude is Exhibit A. Christ, how about Luis Vizcaino? Don't tell me that it's all Mike Maddux. Seriously, I just can't trust anyone on their pitching staff unless they kick ass elsewhere, like Sheets or Turnbow.

[Chisoxfn]

Okay, without even looking at PF numbers (which can be a mindf*** from year to year in some cases), I'd say that these are the 12 best pitching parks in baseball, in no particular order:

 

New York (Mets)

Washington

Florida

Milwaukee

Pittsburgh

Chicago (Cubs)

Los Angeles

San Francisco

San Diego

Oakland

Seattle

Detroit

 

Who am I missing?

 

Wrigley Field is a hitter's nightmare when the wind is blowing in, which is seemingly more often than not.

 

And you know what?  I should have brought up Danny Kolb when we were discussing Miller Park before.  That dude is Exhibit A.  Christ, how about Luis Vizcaino?  Don't tell me that it's all Mike Maddux.  Seriously, I just can't trust anyone on their pitching staff unless they kick ass elsewhere, like Sheets or Turnbow.

Did you notice that Viz wasn't bad for the Sox last season or that Kolb had a career year. He wasn't the same pitcher with the Braves. So because Shingo suck in YR 2 does that mean it was all because of US Cellular.

[RockRaines]

Okay, without even looking at PF numbers (which can be a mindf*** from year to year in some cases), I'd say that these are the 12 best pitching parks in baseball, in no particular order:

 

New York (Mets) 21st

Washington 29th

Florida 26th

Milwaukee 16th

Pittsburgh 11th

Chicago (Cubs) 15th

Los Angeles 25th

San Francisco 20th

San Diego 30th

Oakland 7th

Seattle 19th

Detroit 22nd

 

Who am I missing?

 

Wrigley Field is a hitter's nightmare when the wind is blowing in, which is seemingly more often than not.

 

And you know what?  I should have brought up Danny Kolb when we were discussing Miller Park before.  That dude is Exhibit A.  Christ, how about Luis Vizcaino?  Don't tell me that it's all Mike Maddux.  Seriously, I just can't trust anyone on their pitching staff unless they kick ass elsewhere, like Sheets or Turnbow.

There are your rankings as far as rank by Park Factor

 

Pitchers parks are listed like this in ranking from slightly pitchers(1) advantage, to the best advantage for a pitcher.(15)

1. Miller

2. Tropicana

3. Kaufmann

4. Safeco

5. SBC

6. Shea

7. Comerica

8. Minute Maid

9. Angel

10. Dodger

11. Dolphins

12. Jacobs

13. Camden

14. RFK

15. Petco

 

 

2004:

 

Turner Field (Turner Field )

16 Shea Stadium (Shea Stadium )

17 Angel Stadium (Angel Stadium )

18 Jacobs Field (Jacobs Field )

19 Busch Stadium (Busch Stadium )

20 Comerica Park (Comerica Park ) 0

21 Yankee Stadium (Yankee Stadium )

22 PNC Park (PNC Park )

23 Tropicana Field / Tokyo Dome* (Tropicana Field )

24 Kauffman Stadium (Kauffman Stadium )

25 Dodger Stadium (Dodger Stadium )

26 Olympic Stadium / Bithorn* (Olympic Stadium )

27 Dolphins Stadium (Dolphins Stadium )

28 Great American (Great American ) 0

29 PETCO Park (PETCO Park )

30 Safeco Field (Safeco Field)

[RockRaines]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2004

 

there is a link to the page.

 

Also Miller Park apparently is one of the hardest stadiums to get a hit in, which definatley could point to the pitchers being more dominant at home.