Top Breakout Minor League Candidates

[DBAHO]

From Dayn Perry :puke, but still it's an interesting list;

 

Nick Adenhart, RHP, Angels, Age: 19

 

Acquired: 14th round, 2004, Williamsport HS (Williamsport, Md.)

 

Adenhart is in the latter stages of coming back from Tommy John surgery, and you can expect statistical progress in the upcoming season. Adenhart throws three pitches for strikes, including a changeup, and he looked good in spring training. The injury concerns are there, but otherwise he's a promising one.

 

Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds, Age: 19

 

Acquired: 1st round, 2004, La Grange HS (La Grange, Texas)

 

Bailey is long on stuff, but he has struggled with his control and enters 2006 with a career ERA of 4.42. On the upside, he held his own this spring, and his power arsenal is as imposing as ever.

 

Reid Brignac, SS, Devil Rays, Age: 20

 

Acquired: 2nd round, 2004, St. Amant HS (St. Amant, La.)

 

Brignac hasn't put up great numbers thus far, but his skills are very projectable. It's not certain he'll be able to remain at short, but the bat, once it develops, should play anywhere. Expect progress at the plate in '06.

 

 

Elijah Dukes, OF, Devil Rays, Age: 21

Acquired: 3rd round, 2002, Hillsborough HS (Tampa, Fla.)

 

Dukes has tools for days, but his attitude has gotten in the way thus far. He put up good numbers last season at AA-Montgomery, but he's capable of much more. If Dukes can rein in his anger problems and focus on baseball, then he'll take off.

 

Brandon Erbe, RHP, Orioles, Age: 18

 

Acquired: 3rd round, 2005, McDonough HS (Baltimore, Md.)

 

Look out for this one. Erbe's fastball touches the high 90s, and he complements it with a solid curve. He needs to cultivate his off-speed stuff and stay healthy, but it says much about his potential that the O's intend to assign him to the Sally League, where he'll be one of the youngest players in the circuit.

 

Charlie Fermaint, OF, Brewers, Age: 20

 

Acquired: 4th round, 2003, Jose S. Allegria HS (Dorado, P.R.)

 

Brewers have brought him along slowly, and he'll see his first full season in 2006. That he's smacked 63 extra-base hits in 560 at bats hints at the power Fermaint possesses. Expect a big year from him in the Midwest League.

 

Josh Fields, 3B, White Sox, Age: 23

 

Acquired: 1st round, 2004, Oklahoma State

 

Fields is raw for a collegian, but his baseball time in college was limited because he was also busy playing quarterback for Oklahoma State. The tools are, and the patience is also there. He could put it all together this season at AAA-Charlotte.

 

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Diamondbacks, Age: 20

 

Acquired: Non-drafted free agent, 2002, Venezuela

 

Gonzalez may be the top breakout candidate in the game today. He'll spend at least the first half of 2006 in the hitter-friendly Cal League, and he's got a track record of hitting well against an older peer group. Once his body fills out, Gonzalez is going to show a lot of left-handed pop.

 

Javier Herrera, OF, A's, Age: 20

 

Acquired: Non-drafted free agent, 2001, Venezuela

 

He didn't perform terribly well last season, but he was coming off a positive test for steroids. Herrera takes his walks, hits for power and average and runs the bases well. Expect big numbers in 2006 in the Cal League.

 

Beau Jones, LHP, Braves, Age: 19

 

Acquired: 1st round, 2005, Destrehan HS (Destrehan, La.)

 

The next great Brave hurler? A good fastball by lefty standards, uncommonly advanced breaking stuff, command skills and a sterling organizational track record say maybe so.

 

Kody Kirkland, 3B, Tigers, Age: 22

 

Acquired: 30th round, 2001, College of Southern Idaho (by Pirates)

 

Quick bat through the zone, lots of raw power, impressive spring with the big league club — It all adds up to a possible breakout for Kirkland.

 

Mitch Maier, OF, Royals, Age: 23

 

Acquired: 1st round, 2003, U. of Toledo

 

Maier put up good numbers in limited spring action, and his combination of high averages and gap power make him intriguing going forward.

 

Mike Napoli, C, Angels, Age: 24

 

Acquired: 17th round, 2000, Charles Flanagan HS (Cooper City, Fla.)

 

Napoli is more "underrated" than "breakout candidate," so let's consider what he's already done: .377 career OBP, .474 career SLG, 165 extra-base hits in 1,494 at bats. He's also developed into a quality defender behind the plate, and Napoli profiles as an above-average regular at the highest level.

 

Franquelis Osoria, RHP, Dodgers, Age: 24

 

Acquired: Non-drafted free agent, 1999, Dominican Republic

 

As with any young pitcher, injuries and derailed development are always possible. Still, solid K rate last season, good control and a sparkling 3.20 groundball flyball ratio in 2005. Closer potential at the highest level.

 

J.T. Restko, OF, Marlins, Age: 21

 

Acquired: 10th round, 2003, Marist HS (Chicago)

 

On-base skills, power potential, ability to hit for average, command of the strike zone — Restko has a lot going for him. Put up good numbers last year in his first taste of full-season ball. He'll only get better.

 

Chaz Roe, RHP, Rockies, Age: 19

 

Acquired: 1st round, 2005, Lafayette HS (Lexington, Ky.)

 

Roe has excellent velocity and command of three pitches at age 19. He needs to harness his control, but that's a common hurdle for young fireballers. The makings of an ace are there.

 

Kurt Suzuki, C, A's, Age: 22

 

Acquired: 2nd round, 2004, Cal State Fullerton

 

Suzuki will test his mettle at Double-A this season. He profiles as a quality offensive catcher, but he needs to work on his receiving skills. If he makes progress with the glove, he'll be a useful regular in Oakland.

 

Jose Tabata, OF, Yankees, Age: 17

 

Acquired: Non-drafted free agent, 2004, Venezuela

 

Serious potential here. Last season, Tabata was the second-youngest player in the entire Gulf Coast League, and he put up a batting line of .314 AVG/.382 OBP/.417 SLG and was the second-toughest hitter to strike out in the loop. Tabata also plays good defense and shows speed on the bases. The sky's the limit.

 

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies, Age: 21

 

Acquired: 1st round, 2005, Long Beach State

 

Some scouts regarded Tulowitzki as the best college hitter not named Alex Gordon available in last year's draft. Numbers at High-A Modesto were solid, but unexceptional. He'll do better in 2006.

 

Chris Volstad, RHP, Marlins, Age: 19

 

Acquired: 1st round, 2005, Palm Beach Gardens HS (Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.)

 

Volstad has a lot going for him: command of two plus pitches, control that belies his years and 6-7 frame and good mechanics. As he fills out, his fastball will add velocity, and he does a good job of keeping the ball in the park. If he stays healthy, Volstad will be a fine one.

[Randar68]

From Dayn Perry  :puke, but still it's an interesting list;

 

I definitely would have included Lumsden in the list from our perspective. I always thought he was the highest-ceiling lefty in the system and I think he's gonna have a big year and end up in our bullpen down the stretch. He's got electric stuff.

[southsider2k5]

I definitely would have included Lumsden in the list from our perspective.  I always thought he was the highest-ceiling lefty in the system and I think he's gonna have a big year and end up in our bullpen down the stretch.  He's got electric stuff.

 

His first outing this year sure is a good start towards that.

[RockRaines]

Kurt Suzuki rakes for me in the OOTPB league.

[southsider2k5]

I think Brandon Allen is going to become much better known after this year.

[DBAHO]

I think I read yesterday on Rotoworld that Tabata was already hitting over .500 down at A ball IIRC. That's the type of player we should be hoping we can get from the new baseball academy down in Venezuela.

 

I've heard big wraps on Gonzalez as well. Are the D-Backs loaded with position prospects or what. They could just target pitching with say 8 out of their first 10 picks in the draft this year, because they really need to get some good young pitching in there.

[SoxAce]

Kurt Suzuki rakes for me in the OOTPB league.

 

I will never understand why the sox didn't get him instead of Lucy. Nothing against Lucy, but I watched Suzuki in college and he is a stud. If someone here can even attempt to explain it then that's fine, but I don't think I'll buy any of it.

[Randar68]

I will never understand why the sox didn't get him instead of Lucy. Nothing against Lucy, but I watched Suzuki in college and he is a stud. If someone here can even attempt to explain it then that's fine, but I don't think I'll buy any of it.

 

Lucy is/was the best defensive catcher in that draft and the catcher most likely to stay at that position.

 

Suzuki was clearly the better hitter but the Sox wanted a CATCHER, not a defensive question mark. Now that Lucy is healthy, we'll see what he has, but he only really played one year at Stanford, so give the kid a break.

 

Totally premature to be making a judgement on the pick, that's for sure.

[Chisoxfn]

I will never understand why the sox didn't get him instead of Lucy. Nothing against Lucy, but I watched Suzuki in college and he is a stud. If someone here can even attempt to explain it then that's fine, but I don't think I'll buy any of it.

As Randar said, Lucy had the physical tools to be a stellar defensive catcher. There are some questions as to whether Suzuki has that. But considering I got to see him play a lot at Fullerton, I too was at least a bit surprised because Suzuki is such a good hitter and leader.