GOP Backing Away From Tough Immigration

[SleepyWhiteSox]

ok, then, Enstien of the "immagration issue", what's your        solution?

 

ANY bill that legalizes or puts these people on the path to citizenship is amnesty.  They are being rewarded for entering this country illegally.

 

That's pretty cut and dried.

 

If they pay fines for their offenses and are put on a fairly strict path towards citizenship that must be earned, how is that amnesty?

 

How is paying fines a reward?

[SleepyWhiteSox]

If nothing else, let me say this: through the cowardice of our elected officials and the idiocy of our immigration laws, we've put ourselves into as bad of a situation as we could possibly be, and if nothing is done, it's going to just keep getting worse.  In my opinion, the worst attempted fix for this mess is a gigantic, hugely expensive, massively disrupting deportation.

 

A much better method would be to realize that this situation exists not because of the people looking for jobs, but instead because of the inadequate laws, and we should find a method of addressing the problem in a forward looking manner, not a backwards looking one.  If we obsess over "These people broke the law and must be punished!", we're just going to wind up making the future worse. 

 

 

[Texsox]

Out of curiousity has anyone done a study for how much it would cost to add 12 million people to our social entitlement programs and the subtraction from the tax base it would result in?  Not to mention adding in the lost purchasing power from the resulting wage inflation price increases for industries that take up a higher percentage of income of the poor, such as food stuffs?

 

I suspect this is why our government has looked the other way while illegals were being hired. For decades, we enjoyed the best of all worlds. High employment rates, low wages for manual labor, no government benefits being paid out, some taxes being paid in.

 

Now we are faced with what to do. Whether it is newly legal or always legal workers doing these jobs, the social cost will be the same.

 

Has anyone thought about the national security issues of forcing more and more agriculture outside our country? That is my biggest worry in all this. Mow your own yard and cook your own meals, but we need agriculture. Ancient wars were won by cutting off food and water, and we are slowly making it easier and easier to cut ourselves off from our food production.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Do you think we'd be paying less taxes if there were no illegal immigrants?

 

If so, how much?

 

 

If there were no illegal immigrants receiving social services, healthcare, schooling and the like then those services wouldn't have such a big workload and we would indeed pay less in taxes.

 

http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscalrelease.html

 

According to this there is a net negative of 10.4 billion in 2002 and I think its safe to say that has grown since then.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

If there were no illegal immigrants receiving social services, healthcare, schooling and the like then those services wouldn't have such a big workload and we would indeed pay less in taxes.

 

http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscalrelease.html

 

According to this there is a net negative of 10.4 billion in 2002 and I think its safe to say that has grown since then.

 

You are a U.S. citizen if you are born on U.S. soil.

[southsider2k5]

Do you think we'd be paying less taxes if there were no illegal immigrants?

 

If so, how much?

 

I've already talked about this multiple times back earlier in the thread.

[Balta1701]

Has anyone thought about the national security issues of forcing more and more agriculture outside our country? That is my biggest worry in all this. Mow your own yard and cook your own meals, but we need agriculture. Ancient wars were won by cutting off food and water, and we are slowly making it easier and easier to cut ourselves off from our food production.

At some level, you can think about this, but on the other hand, there are a lot of problems with thinking about that as an argument. First of all, there simply are vastly more products we'd have to worry about more than the food supply in the event of war. Steel comes to mind, but there are a huge number of resources that simply aren't produced in the U.S. any more because the manufacturing has gone overseas. It'd be a lot harder to restart manufacturing of all the little electronics that are currently built in Taiwan/China than it would be to re-seed some fields. Oh yeah, and then there's oil.

 

But even beyond that...strategically, it seems like it would be nearly impossible to cut off the food supplies from the U.S. given its access to both oceans, the rest of this continent, and the U.S.'s own food supplies.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

I've already talked about this multiple times back earlier in the thread.

 

I highly doubt taxes go down.

[Texsox]

If there were no illegal immigrants receiving social services, healthcare, schooling and the like then those services wouldn't have such a big workload and we would indeed pay less in taxes.

 

http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscalrelease.html

 

According to this there is a net negative of 10.4 billion in 2002 and I think its safe to say that has grown since then.

 

Wouldn't legal workers demand the services, and still not pay much taxes? Illegals are less likely to apply for benefits than legal workers.

 

And a few posts back SS made a brilliant comment about people looking at the costs. It is brilliant in that it clarifies something in this debate. In our society, when someone is wronged, they make noise, lots of noise. When something is not working for our greater good, we take action. Why hasn't there been any uprising in thirty years? Because 99.9% of Americans are not losing jobs they want to a Spanish speaking, illiterate, uneducated, illegal immigrant who snuck into this country. Consumers enjoy the lower prices on groceries, at restaurants, and for the yard service. Businesses enjoy having cheaper labor, illegals were enjoying a standard of living above their homeland. The only people losing were the illegals in that they did not have the dignity and benefits of citizenship. They lived in fear of being caught. Now, who will probably win in all this? The people who were losing, who will now, in some form, be allowed here. Perhaps there is some justice in our world.

[southsider2k5]

Well, presumably, if this was done as some sort of a "Guest worker" program, they wouldn't necessarily be winding up gathering huge amounts of support from social programs like unemployment or welfare, because they'd be "Working".

 

And of course, on top of the inflationary pressure on the cheapest goods, there's the other side of the token that the "Guest workers" will also be purchasing additional goods, which would drive profits/job creation higher.

 

 

I'm not going to mess with the second part of your post, because big picture we see pretty close to eye to eye on things here... I do want to talk about a couple of early things though.

 

We have been bombareded with information about Wal-Mart employees who are on welfare, and they make more than minimum wage, right? I know our Wal-mart starts at about $2 an hour more than the min, so how are guys making the min going to be avoiding the same social programs as their better paid bretheran in retail?

 

Spending will rise, but with the amount of money that is sent back to Mexico, it stands to reason that a much larger amount of dollars would be getting sent back to Mexico (meaning they won't be spent in the US), which could very well outpace the increased spending in the US when balanced out against the inflationary pressures associated with the much higher wages would create.

[southsider2k5]

I highly doubt taxes go down.

 

Net and gross taxes collected would probably drop. I went through marginal tax rates earlier in the thread if you want to check up on me.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

Net and gross taxes collected would probably drop.  I went through marginal tax rates earlier in the thread if you want to check up on me.

 

Nah, I'm good. Pure speculation swayed to follow your stance at this point anyhow.

[kapkomet]

If nothing else, let me say this: through the cowardice of our elected officials and the idiocy of our immigration laws, we've put ourselves into as bad of a situation as we could possibly be, and if nothing is done, it's going to just keep getting worse.  In my opinion, the worst attempted fix for this mess is a gigantic, hugely expensive, massively disrupting deportation.

 

A much better method would be to realize that this situation exists not because of the people looking for jobs, but instead because of the inadequate laws, and we should find a method of addressing the problem in a forward looking manner, not a backwards looking one.  If we obsess over "These people broke the law and must be punished!", we're just going to wind up making the future worse. 

 

There are going to be costs associated with whatever choice we make, so we might as well try to find the best option and just deal with the costs as they ahppen.

I can agree with that much - the thing is though, is that all the "proposals" currently on the table doesn't do that. If they correct the real problem, and that is the people hiring these people, and not the people themselves, then we're getting somewhere. No one wants to look at it like that.

 

I realize that out of context, my posts are on the verge of saying "deport them all" - to which I say, yes, that's true it's a difficult premise. I stand by it, in a way, though, because it would take the deportation of just a few to stem the tide that is currently coming in.

 

Another thing - if these people aren't counted, how do we know it's 12,000,000? That makes me laugh.

[Texsox]

Spending will rise, but with the amount of money that is sent back to Mexico, it stands to reason that a much larger amount of dollars would be getting sent back to Mexico (meaning they won't be spent in the US), which could very well outpace the increased spending in the US when balanced out against the inflationary pressures associated with the much higher wages would create.

 

 

I've been looking but can't find any hard numbers. So I'm wondering what percentage of wages could be sent back? By the time food, raiment, and shelter is factored into a near minimum wage job, I suspect not that much can really be sent back.

 

I can see where doing anything is going to cost money. It is cheaper to keep things the way they are, which is why for thirty years we haven't done anything.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

I realize that out of context, my posts are on the verge of saying "deport them all" - to which I say, yes, that's true it's a difficult premise.  I stand by it, in a way, though, because it would take the deportation of just a few to stem the tide that is currently coming in.

 

Just a few? Well, that's how it is now. If you're caught, you're deported.

 

Another thing - if these people aren't counted, how do we know it's 12,000,000?  That makes me laugh.

 

Maybe it's more, which is part of what makes the idea of "catching" them all and deporting them ludicrous.

[kapkomet]

Just a few?  Well, that's how it is now.  If you're caught, you're deported.

Maybe it's more, which is part of what makes the idea of "catching" them all and deporting them ludicrous.

But, my point is if a concentrated effort is made, and a bushel of these people are forced back and it's widely publicized, it would be quite effective until the "guest worker" program is put in place.

[Texsox]

I can agree with that much - the thing is though, is that all the "proposals" currently on the table doesn't do that.  If they correct the real problem, and that is the people hiring these people, and not the people themselves, then we're getting somewhere.  No one wants to look at it like that.

 

Let's look at that. Starting tomorrow, no one hires an illegal. What will change? Will someone suddenly apply for that carwash job? Will a high school student suddenly decide he wants to work in farm fields? Will unemployment go even lower? What will happen to millions of unemployed illegals? Tell me who will be the next generation of Americans to work as migrants in the fields.

 

Of course if you are going to propose legal immigration, I'll agree. But if you are going to try and convince me we will have millions of kids ready to take these jobs, I just do not see it.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Let's look at that. Starting tomorrow, no one hires an illegal. What will change? Will someone suddenly apply for that carwash job? Will a high school student suddenly decide he wants to work in farm fields? Will unemployment go even lower? What will happen to millions of unemployed illegals? Tell me who will be the next generation of Americans to work as migrants in the fields.

 

Of course if you are going to propose legal immigration, I'll agree. But if you are going to try and convince me we will have millions of kids ready to take these jobs, I just do not see it.

 

 

Guest worker program. Do it legally and people like me no longer have a problem with it.

[Texsox]

Deporting? It depends on where they are caught. They sometimes are released with a court date. After all, we are innocent until proven guilty in this country. That is another fatal flaw in our system. I believe in throwing the book at anyone who has a court date and doesn't show up in an attempt to avoid deportation. A little taxpayer funded jail time, then a trip home.

[Balta1701]

Another thing - if these people aren't counted, how do we know it's 12,000,000?  That makes me laugh.

It's almost certainly somewhere between 10 and 20 million. But that's more typing than just saying 11 million.

[Texsox]

Guest worker program.  Do it legally and people like me no longer have a problem with it.

 

I don't either. And while we are at it, put together an immigration program that works for American business, clearly this one hasn't.

[southsider2k5]

I've been looking but can't find any hard numbers. So I'm wondering what percentage of wages could be sent back? By the time food, raiment, and shelter is factored into a near minimum wage job, I suspect not that much can really be sent back.

 

I can see where doing anything is going to cost money. It is cheaper to keep things the way they are, which is why for thirty years we haven't done anything.

 

If billions are dollars are being sent back now with subminimum wage rates being earned, it makes sense to me a lot more money will be sent back with actual minimum wages being paid, right?

[Balta1701]

Guest worker program.  Do it legally and people like me no longer have a problem with it.

The real problem here is that there are so many issues that have to be taken into account in order to come up with a real solution that everyone, no matter whether they're a congressperson or a blogger, winds up having something to snipe about even in a perfect bill.

 

We've got a problem because we have a ton of undocumented immigrants already here. We've got a problem because people keep hiring them. We've got a problem because they don't want to pay workers more. We've got a problem because we have no means to stop the flow across the border. Etc.

 

No matter what we do, some group is going to be pissed off. In fact, a lot of groups will be. And it will cost money.

 

A few pages ago I tried to outline what I thought would be the best strategy for a comprehensive bill to deal with things for the future:

 

1. Recognition of the illegals who are already here, along with guest worker status and a path to citizenship in this country, albeit a long path.

 

2. Creation of a fair guest worker program...one which involves a path to citizenship which is significantly shorter than the method in #1 (to give some encouragement for current illegals to return home). This program should be open worldwide, and must not be subject to the whims of whatever congressman/DHS employee who decides he doesnt' like the Thais, or something like that.

 

3. More intense punishments for undocumented immigrants, starting at a date which would give reasonable time for those immigrants who are already here to register before the punishments take hold.

 

4. Much more intense penalties for hiring undocumented workers. Random searches of businesses, a national electronic system allowing for quick-check of working status, fines that are large enough to actually harm the bottom line of companies (hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars per worker), and rewards for people turning in these employers (green card, etc.)

 

5. Strengthening of border security, to slow down future crossings.

 

Probably a few more details that need to be included, but that's the best I can come up with. Is it going to cost money? Yes. Is it going to piss people off? Yes. But for the future, if you assume this country needs those workers, I think that's both the closest to a fair method I can come up with and the cheapest method as well.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

I don't either. And while we are at it, put together an immigration program that works for American business, clearly this one hasn't.

 

 

Thats what the government is trying to do but people still want to protest and wave mexican flags and demand that their criminal activity be forgotten. Thats wrong.

[Texsox]

Thats what the government is trying to do but people still want to protest and wave mexican flags and demand that their criminal activity be forgotten.  Thats wrong.

 

If it is in our nation's best interest to forget their criminal history, then I agree, we should. I don't think we should spend billions of dollars to deport them, which is what our laws call for. And that is the slope we are on. Only the most extreme claim that rounding them up and deporting is the thing to do. So we start from a premise that we should ignore our law and modify it after the fact. Let's never get in this position again. I think everyone can agree on that.

 

SS, over what time period and how did they determine that number? Was that legal and illegal Mexican nationals? Does that also include Americans living in Mexico? Like everyone here, all these numbers seem suspect to me. How much could you save on $12,000 per year income? Remember illegals shop in the same stores as you and I. If they could still save and send home even a $1000, that's pretty amazing. JimH and I just kicked around people not being able to save that without having the IRS hold it for us. Yet they are able to? They are far better money managers than most Americans.