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Ozzie hints at Bmac closing, possibly


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Yea, the ironic thing is that BMAC is 2/1/2 years younger than Papelbon, posted better numbers in everything except ERA and K/9 last year (WHIP, BB/9 K/BB) and yet gets drastically less hype. Somehow Papelbon managed an ERA+ of 166 with a WHIP of 1.471. Granted he's a strikeout pitcher )which makes his WHIP less important) whereas BMAC is more finesee, however it's a mistake to think Papelbon is better than BMAC solely on K/9. When Papelbon was 23 (like BMAC will be on June 7) he was in A ball! Let me repeat: McCarthy enters this season only 22. That is pretty damn remarkable.

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"However if he can not throw his curve for a strike everyone is going to be sitting on that fast ball. I think Shelton yesterday is a good example of that. And I don't care if he throws 110mph the hitters will adjust and catch up to it."

 

Dind ding ding. We've been saying this for a while and some people seem to think 100 mph gas is enough, B.S. It'd be nice to see Bobby in a game where the Sox give him a nice lead so he can experiment a little bit more with his off speed stuff.

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QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Apr 13, 2006 -> 10:18 AM)
McCarthy is needed for other situations, not this.

If McCarthy took over the closer role, then Jenks would be a set-up guy, his initial role when he joined the team. You're right about the fact the Sox would then basically have no "long" man. Someone who could go more than 3 innings in the bullpen. But that might not be necessary with the calibur of the White Sox rotation, although Vazquez has been known to have very short outings from time to time, and that could blow the bullpen out, but Buerhle follows him, and he's pretty much a guarantee to go deep into a game.

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I believe the biggest question mark on the team is Jenks. Instant stars can just as quickly become instant flops. I also am not ready to give up on him and think he is the best option until proven otherwise. It would take a couple blown saves, some close jams he put himself into, some walks, etc. to start thinking about someone else. And IMHO a move to closer moves BMac further away from starting, not closer to, and I believe long term, he could make Sox fans forget about Buerhle as the greatest pitcher to put on a Sox uniform. (I am also predicting that by the time Buerhle finishes, he'll have a pot full of wins, a couple Cy Youngs, and a trip to Cooperston)

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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Apr 13, 2006 -> 08:24 AM)
If McCarthy took over the closer role, then Jenks would be a set-up guy, his initial role when he joined the team. You're right about the fact the Sox would then basically have no "long" man. Someone who could go more than 3 innings in the bullpen. But that might not be necessary with the calibur of the White Sox rotation, although Vazquez has been known to have very short outings from time to time, and that could blow the bullpen out, but Buerhle follows him, and he's pretty much a guarantee to go deep into a game.

In theory, I think Thornton should have the ability to go 3+ innings, he's also a former starter. Jenks is also, but he loses velocity after about the first inning, and especially after the 2nd, which is mainly why the Sox made him a closer.

 

But that said...if we hit the 10th inning and BMac hasn't worked yet, I have no doubt at all about who I want on the mound through the end of the 17th.

 

I still think Bobby will be fine.

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QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Apr 13, 2006 -> 09:10 AM)
Yea, the ironic thing is that BMAC is 2/1/2 years younger than Papelbon, posted better numbers in everything except ERA and K/9 last year (WHIP, BB/9 K/BB) and yet gets drastically less hype.  Somehow Papelbon managed an ERA+ of 166 with a WHIP of 1.471.  Granted he's a strikeout pitcher )which makes his WHIP less important) whereas BMAC is more finesee.

Whoa whoa whoa, since when is BMAC not a strikeout pitcher? He has always been a strikeout pitcher in the minors racking up 536 k's, he also led the Arizona and Pioneer leagues in strikeouts in his first two seasons, then led all of Minor League Baseball with 202 Ks in 2004. His k/9 in the majors last year was 6.45. I dont understand how that translates in your head to him being a finesse pitcher.

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whereas BMAC is more finesee.

 

More finesee doesn't necassarily equal he's not a strikout pitcher. I meant that he's not as reliant on the K as Papelbon, which I should have made more clear.

 

I agree though that BMAC certainly has the ability to strike guys out. I was thinking about that 2004 stat when I wrote the post--I should have mentioned that so far he's been hitting basts more often in the majors--which is expected with a move up the ladder.

 

Here's a question: Verlander or BMAC? I don't think there is a wrong answer at this point.

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QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Apr 13, 2006 -> 09:47 AM)
More finesee doesn't necassarily equal he's not a strikout pitcher. I meant that he's not as reliant on the K as Papelbon, which I should have made more clear.

 

I agree though that BMAC certainly has the ability to strike guys out. I was thinking about that 2004 stat when I wrote the post--I should have mentioned that so far he's been hitting basts more often in the majors--which is expected with a move up the ladder. 

 

Here's a question: Verlander or BMAC?  I don't think there is a wrong answer at this point.

I dont think you know what you are talking about here. BMAC has consistently struck out more people than Papelbon. He was the most prolific strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues a couple of seasons ago. As far as "hitting basts" im not sure what you mean there, but BMAC already this year is showing that he is going to strikeout batters at a high rate as he has 6IP and 4 k's and only 3 hits.

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But what's with this team and closers? Howry, Foulke, Osuna, Shingo...They're all one-year wonders for us, in that role, and then fall-off or are gone.

 

Yea, I kinda like it like that though. Although it relies on a certain amount of confidence that someone within the organization can get it done, it also doesn't overpay for relief pitching, which is notoriously unpredictable. Look at Foulke this year, he's pretty much lost the job to Papelbon--so he's a 7.5 million dollar setup man.

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QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Apr 13, 2006 -> 10:09 AM)
Yea, I kinda like it like that though.  Although it relies on a certain amount of confidence that someone within the organization can get it done, it also doesn't overpay for relief pitching, which is notoriously unpredictable.  Look at Foulke this year, he's pretty much lost the job to Papelbon--so he's a 7.5 million dollar setup man.

yeah, i like it too, relief pitching is so volatile it is ridiculous, and this organization has done well to not overpay for it.

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Ok, Rock, I don't usually post without first looking up the stats. You should know this by now. Furthermore, I'm willing to admit when I made a mistake. However, this is not one of those times. Lets look at the stats:

 

Papelbon:

 

Year Level IP SO

2003 A 32.2 36

2004 A 129.2 153

2005 AA 83 83

2005 BO 34 43

 

BMAC

 

Year Level IP K

2003 RK 101 125

2004 A- 94 113

2004 A+ 52 60

2004 AA 26 29

2005 AAA 119.3 130

2005 Sox 67 48

 

So Brandon posted slightly better K/9 numbers than Papelbon in the minors (against somewhat inferior competition until AAA), and in a very small sample size for both pitchers, Papelbon posted a fairly better K/9 in the majors. So far, that trend has continues this season. In an even more rediculous sample size, BMAC has struck out 4 in 6 IP. Papelbon has struck out 5 in 5 IP. Pabelpon's heater is 2-3 MPH faster than Brandon's when both are on their game, and he relies on it more than Brandon to get hitters out swinging.

 

I don't think this is a case of "I don't know what I'm talking about". I think it's a case that you're reading my conclusion totally wrong--it WAS NOT that BMAC is not a strikeout pitcher. It was a relative conclusion: relative to Papelbon, BMAC relies more on finesse to get hitters out.

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QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Apr 13, 2006 -> 10:31 AM)
I don't think this is a case of "I don't know what I'm talking about".  I think it's a case that you're reading my conclusion totally wrong--it WAS NOT that BMAC is not a strikeout pitcher.  It was a relative conclusion:  relative to Papelbon, BMAC relies more on finesse to get hitters out.

Ok, so your conclusion is that you arent wrong, you posted stats that support my opinion, and BMAC has historically struck out more batters than Papelbon, in all levels of the minors. Yet BMAC is less reliant on the strikeout than Papelbon. I dont understand how more strikeouts=more of a finesse pitcher. To each his own I guess. Maybe the term you were looking for is that Papelbon is more of a power pitcher because he has more MPH on his fastball, but BMAC has much better offspeed pitches, his plus curve and plus changeup strike out more batters per 9 innings.

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White Sox used to have good closers.

 

Thigpen, Hernandez, and then Foulke was looking like the guy to carry the torch.

 

Its only been recently where the closer has been some what of a concern, and even then the White Sox have been lucky to get outstanding years from guys like Hermanson, Shingo.

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QUOTE(greasywheels121 @ Apr 13, 2006 -> 10:54 AM)
But what's with this team and closers?  Howry, Foulke, Osuna, Shingo...They're all one-year wonders for us, in that role, and then fall-off or are gone.

 

It's not just the Sox, it's the nature of the business.

 

I've been reading the Baseball Prospectus book, and in the Yankees' team essay they did a study on the consistency of relief pitchers. They found that the year-to-year turnover of successful relievers is extremely high. In a typical season, there's an average of a 60 percent turnover among the top 50 relievers from the previous year, and it gets even worse over a multi-year span.

 

That's why I'm glad the Sox have avoided throwing money at their relief staff -- it's just not worth it. Solid relievers may be the cheapest and most available resource in baseball. Just don't fall in love with them.

 

And that's why I snicker at the Cubs' repeatedly making this mistake over and over (Hawkins, Remlinger, Eyre, Howry, etc.). That helps to explain why they're the Cubs. :bang

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