The Continuing Rise of Mark Buerhle

[Texsox]

I don't usually get into hyperbole mode about someone's career. But IMNSHO, Buerhle will end his career with over 250 wins, a couple Cy Young Awards, and most people will consider him the best Sox pitcher of all time. Yet, from year to year, his unassuming manner, will have some people wondering if he's an "Ace" or even the top pitcher on the staff.

 

I've always liked his mechanics, his approach, and most everything about the way he goes about his work. He's becoming Ryan, Clemens, Shilling, Pedro, without the PR. This will be the season the rest of the country turns their heads and watches as Mark pushes a couple guys aside and takes his place in that upper patheon.

 

Last night's game should not have surprised anyone. Both pitchers were up for the game and on top of their games. What a difference a couple years make. It's a game that we would have lost in 2003.

[Felix]

He's becoming Ryan, Clemens, Shilling, Pedro, without the PR.

And without the fastball

[chitownsportsfan]

Mark is really an interesting case. He's consistently better than his periphereals suggest, and the whole "he's a pitcher not a thrower" seems to apply well.

 

I'm not sure about wins, as he could play from some bad teams in the future, but I see a lot more 120 ERA+ seasons with over 200IP. He does that another 10 years, and he might just find himself in the HOF--not saying that's highly likely, just that it isn't out of the realm of possibility.

[greasywheels121]

We just got to get the guy locked up, to guarantee he can do all that good stuff you mentioned Tex. There's not much reason to believe he can't get done what you're predicting, because he's got a very healthy motion and it's definitely effective.

 

However, one thing, I miss the original thread you're mocking in this.

[Texsox]

^^^^^^^^^^^^

that was the genesis of this thread. I see Mark in the Maddux mold in some ways. His health seems to indicate he could achieve Moyer like years and be a threat to win 300, but he'd have to continue to play on some great teams. More likely 15 @ 15 wins and 225 wins.

 

It is strange that the media hasn't picked up on his marketability sooner. That solid midwestern charm should start resulting in some endorsement $$$$.

[Milkman delivers]

Before last year, I tried to figure out Buehrle's pace. Going by the average amount of games he won a year up to that point, and assuming he pitches until he's 40 and remains healthy, he was on pace to win something like 320 games.

 

I'm not saying. I'm just saying.

[Texsox]

And doesn't that open some eyes. even a conservative projection is a great career. It is also easy to argue that 300 is well within reason, if healthy and playing for good to above average teams.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'd say Buerhle is the best pitcher in recent or modern times for the sox - not the best ever. And I'd further add a condition that we are referring to long term career performance, not one or two year shots.

 

But yeah, Buerhle = awesome. One of the best pitchers in the league. Great guy to have on the team.

[TitoMB345]

And doesn't that open some eyes. even a conservative projection is a great career. It is also easy to argue that 300 is well within reason, if healthy and playing for good to above average teams.

 

And hopefully that good or above average team will be the Chicago White Sox, for the next 10 years!

[DBAHO]

However, one thing, I miss the original thread you're mocking in this. 

Weren't those the days or what. Oh boy we had some fun back then.

[Gregory Pratt]

^^^^^^^^^^^^

that was the genesis of this thread. I see Mark in the Maddux mold in some ways. His health seems to indicate he could achieve Moyer like years and be a threat to win 300, but he'd have to continue to play on some great teams. More likely 15 @ 15 wins and 225 wins.

 

It is strange that the media hasn't picked up on his marketability sooner. That solid midwestern charm should start resulting in some endorsement $$$$.

 

The boldened part is particularly my favorite part. I've been saying that for ages. (Not that I claim to have created the comparison or anything.)

 

They're both finesse pitchers. Their careers, barring a linedrive to the face, are the types that'll last longer than the average pitcher's. I think Mark Buehrle can win 300, provided he stay with above-average teams.

[Texsox]

I also think Mark. at least from what I can see, can smile and keep a positive outlook on life. That will help keep him healthy and wanting to play. Some guys seem tormented by playing a game for a living, mark still seems to be playing, even without the tarp slides.

[BlackBetsy]

I just did a personal John Sickels-esque crystal ball on Buehrle and here's what I came up with:

 

Age W L

thru 26 84 53

27 16 8

28 20 6

29 17 11

30 16 10

31 17 9

32 17 10

33 16 11

34 15 12

35 15 10

36 16 9

37 14 14

38 12 11

Total 275 174

 

That's roughly 12 more years at 16 wins per year. I figure a fade out at age 37/38. This, of course, depends on how good the teams Buehrle played for are. The 2001-2004 White Sox teams weren't great, but they did score a ton of runs. (In fact, had the Sox had 1 more Buehrle each of those years, they probably win the division in every year but 2002).

[BlackBetsy]

I just did a personal John Sickels-esque crystal ball on Buehrle and here's what I came up with:

 

 

Total 275 174

 

That's roughly 12 more years at 16 wins per year.  I figure a fade out at age 37/38.  This, of course, depends on how good the teams Buehrle played for are.  The 2001-2004 White Sox teams weren't great, but they did score a ton of runs.  (In fact, had the Sox had 1 more Buehrle each of those years, they probably win the division in every year but 2002).

I should add that is borderline HOF. If he keeps up his ERA+ of 128, then he would belong in the Hall of Fame. His best comp would probably be Jim Palmer or Tom Glavine. The 100 more wins than losses would probably do the trick.

 

Jim Kaat - 283-237, ERA+ 107, not HOF

Tommy John - 288-231, ERA+ 111, not HOF

Robin Roberts - 286-245, ERA+ 113, HOF

Red Ruffing - 273-225, ERA+ 109 (!!), HOF

Jim Palmer - 268-152, ERA+ 125, HOF

Fergie Jenkins - 284-226, ERA+ 115, HOF

Bert Blyleven - 287-250, ERA+ 118, not HOF

Bob Feller - 266-162, ERA+ 122, HOF

Tom Glavine (active) 275-184, ERA+ 120, not yet eligible (Hall of Famer on 2 of 4 HOF tests).

 

We are talking a lot of years away from now. 12 years of production like that would be amazing. But I wouldn't put it past Buehrle.

 

The other scenario is that he burns out in 2-3 years and finishes something like 120-70. Rich, yes, Hall of Fame, no.

[southsider2k5]

I should add that is borderline HOF.  If he keeps up his ERA+ of 128, then he would belong in the Hall of Fame.  His best comp would probably be Jim Palmer or Tom Glavine.  The 100 more wins than losses would probably do the trick.

 

Jim Kaat - 283-237, ERA+ 107, not HOF

Tommy John - 288-231, ERA+ 111, not HOF

Robin Roberts - 286-245, ERA+ 113, HOF

Red Ruffing - 273-225, ERA+ 109 (!!), HOF 

Jim Palmer - 268-152, ERA+ 125, HOF

Fergie Jenkins - 284-226, ERA+ 115, HOF

Bert Blyleven - 287-250, ERA+ 118, not HOF

Bob Feller - 266-162, ERA+ 122, HOF

Tom Glavine (active) 275-184, ERA+ 120, not yet eligible (Hall of Famer on 2 of 4 HOF tests).

 

We are talking a lot of years away from now.  12 years of production like that would be amazing.  But I wouldn't put it past Buehrle.

 

The other scenario is that he burns out in 2-3 years and finishes something like 120-70.  Rich, yes, Hall of Fame, no.

 

The era of the 300 game pitcher is over. Players don't start as often, go as deep, or pitch as much as pitchers of the by gone eras. In the next 20 years I would predict that a number such as 250 wins for players of this era will become HOFesque.

[BlackBetsy]

The era of the 300 game pitcher is over.  Players don't start as often, go as deep, or pitch as much as pitchers of the by gone eras.  In the next 20 years I would predict that a number such as 250 wins for players of this era will become HOFesque.

 

I'm not quite ready to concede that yet. I think that we don't see a lot of 300 game winners, period.

 

Here's when the 300-game winners ended their careers:

pre-1900: 5

1900-1920: 4 (Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Kid Nichols, Eddie Plank)

1920-1940: 2 (Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander)

1940-1960: 1 (Lefty Grove)

1960-1980: 2 (Warren Spahn, Early Wynn)

1980-2000: 6 (S. Carlton, T. Seaver, D. Sutton, N. Ryan, P. Niekro, G. Perry)

2000- : 2 (Clemens, Maddux) + Glavine possible #3

 

If you think about it, the 2000-2020 period could have just as many 300+ game winners as the 1900-1920 period if Glavine hits the mark (25 to go heading into 2006), and Randy Johnson can get 2 1/2 more solid seasons (he was 37 shy at the beginning of 2006). Mussina could always suck it up and have 4 more 16-win seasons and a 10 win season to hit 300 (He'd be 41 when he hit it).

[WCSox]

I'd say Buerhle is the best pitcher in recent or modern times for the sox - not the best ever.  And I'd further add a condition that we are referring to long term career performance, not one or two year shots.

 

Mark's doing a phenominal job so far, but I'm not going to use his name and Cooperstown in the same sentence until he's in his early '30s and is still pitching at this level. While there are quite a few superlatives that can be thrown his way, one negative is that he's not really a top-tier, dominating pitcher (no Cy Young Award, no 20-win season, no season with an ERA under 3.00). Of course, as Tex mentioned, he's entering his prime now and that could change.

 

That said, he's consistently good and has been very durable thus far. I'm not sure if he'll be as good as Glavine when all is said and done, but I could easily see him with 250+ wins and a possible trip to Cooperstown if he can win another championship or two with the Sox.

Edited April 22, 2006 by WCSox

[Walker2Baines]

Dwight Gooden, Vida Blue, Frank Viola, Ramon Martinez, Britt Burns, and even Larmar Hoyt who are they? Pitchers who had good to great 3-5 years to start their careers but then things didn't work out for them to have long productive careers.

[southsider2k5]

I'm not quite ready to concede that yet.  I think that we don't see a lot of 300 game winners, period.

 

Here's when the 300-game winners ended their careers:

pre-1900:  5

1900-1920:  4 (Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Kid Nichols, Eddie Plank)

1920-1940:  2 (Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander)

1940-1960:  1 (Lefty Grove)

1960-1980:  2 (Warren Spahn, Early Wynn)

1980-2000:  6 (S. Carlton, T. Seaver, D. Sutton, N. Ryan, P. Niekro, G. Perry)

2000- :        2 (Clemens, Maddux)  + Glavine possible #3

 

If you think about it, the 2000-2020 period could have just as many 300+ game winners as the 1900-1920 period if Glavine hits the mark (25 to go heading into 2006), and Randy Johnson can get 2 1/2 more solid seasons (he was 37 shy at the beginning of 2006).  Mussina could always suck it up and have 4 more 16-win seasons and a 10 win season to hit 300  (He'd be 41 when he hit it).

 

Sorry I was referring more to Buehrles group vs the older pitchers. Guys don't go even the 250 innings or the 37-38 starts that they used to even 15-20 years ago. Now it is 34-35 starts tops, and if you get one guy with 250 innings, it is a shock. If you take away 2-3 starts a season, and get guys out after 6-7 innings vs 7-8 innings they are giving more chances to other starters, and the bulllpens. Added up over the course of a 20 year career you are talking about losing something like 40-50 starts, which makes it nearly impossible for 300 wins for anyone under about 30 years old.

 

I think Johnson is the only one with a real shot, it looks like me like Mussina may have an outside shot, but I think he is a couple of years away from being out of the game with the decline he has had the last few years.

[BlackBetsy]

I think Johnson is the only one with a real shot, it looks like me like Mussina may have an outside shot, but I think he is a couple of years away from being out of the game with the decline he has had the last few years.

 

I'd like to see someone run Bill James' favorite toy on the current crop of under-30 pitchers to see which ones have a 30% or greater chance at 300 wins.

 

I would think of a few candidates:

 

Captain Cheeseburger

Mark Buehrle

Roy Oswalt (less likely)

Mark Mulder

Dontrelle Willis

 

There's a good Hardball Times article on this back in 2004 - Link

[chitownsportsfan]

Dwight Gooden, Vida Blue, Frank Viola, Ramon Martinez, Britt Burns, and even Larmar Hoyt who are they? Pitchers who had good to great 3-5 years to start their careers but then things didn't work out for them to have long productive careers.

 

If you're saying that MB will suffer a similiar fate bacause he's similiar to those guys--you are dead wrong.

MB

is in his 7th MLB season first off, so I'm not sure where the "3-5" good years thing comes in.

 

Ok, the guys you compared him to: Doc Gooden has drug problems--hard drug problems--he is not a good comparison.

 

Frank Viola was a damn good pitcher. 9 times over 200ip, and a career ERA+ of 113. Heck, he pitched over 250IP 5 times. Not a HOFER, but certainly a good player, with a long and solid career. If MB has a Fran Viola career that would be awesome.

 

Martinez only made it over 200IP 4 times in his 13 year career, and finished with a 105 ERA+--he is a decidely mediocre pitcher. His first 5 full seasons--yes, he did flash some potential. However, he didn't do it the level MB is doing it, not even close. His age 26 season he had an ERA+ of 99. MB's age 26 ERA+ was 143.

 

Screw the other two guys, your argument was poor, I hope this proves it.

[RME JICO]

Mark has a great chance at winning 300 games, but a few things need to happen in his favor.

 

First he needs to stay healthy, he needs to have a few 20 win seasons, and the Sox or the team he plays for in the future needs to stay competitive. At the same age, Clemens and Maddux are 30 wins ahead of him at age 27. The biggest reason for that is they had a couple of 20 win seasons before turning 27.

 

Now if you compare him to Pedro Martinez who just got his 200th win at age 34, Mark would have to average between 16-17 wins a season for the next 7 years to match him - highly possible.

 

Based off what he has done so far, it seems like he has a great shot at 300.

[Walker2Baines]

If you're saying that MB will suffer a similiar fate bacause he's similiar to those guys--you are dead wrong.

MB

is in his 7th MLB season first off, so I'm not sure where the "3-5" good years thing comes in.

 

Ok, the guys you compared him to:  Doc Gooden has drug problems--hard drug problems--he is not a good comparison. 

 

Frank Viola was a damn good pitcher.  9 times over 200ip, and a career ERA+ of 113.  Heck, he pitched over 250IP 5 times.  Not a HOFER, but certainly a good player, with a long and solid career.  If MB has a Fran Viola career that would be awesome.

 

Martinez only made it over 200IP 4 times in his 13 year career, and finished with a 105 ERA+--he is a decidely mediocre pitcher.  His first 5 full seasons--yes, he did flash some potential.  However, he didn't do it  the level MB is doing it, not even close.  His age 26 season he had an ERA+ of 99.  MB's age 26 ERA+ was 143.

 

Screw the other two guys, your argument was poor, I hope this proves it.

 

Are you stupid? Where did I say MB would suffer the same fate? But nobody is above becoming a drug addict.

 

But MB has to prove he can pitch well into his 30's before we talk about him being a HOF or winning 300 games.

 

All those people mentioned showed tons of flashes. But they faded out real quick. Whether it was in their 3rd year or their 7th year.

 

Do you even know who Vida Blue is? Without looking at baseballreference.com?

[Dam8610]

Are you stupid?  Where did I say MB would suffer the same fate?  But nobody is above becoming a drug addict. 

 

But MB has to prove he can pitch well into his 30's before we talk about him being a HOF or winning 300 games. 

 

All those people mentioned showed tons of flashes.  But they faded out real quick.  Whether it was in their 3rd year or their 7th year.

 

Do you even know who Vida Blue is?  Without looking at baseballreference.com?

 

People are saying he has a good chance, and when you look at the type of pitcher Mark is, the way he throws, and his great history as far as injuries are concerned, it makes a lot of sense. He touches 91 max on a great day, and usually sits in the 87-89 range, so he's not putting a ton of stress on his arm with the speed of his fastball, and his delivery is very conducive to staying healthy. He won 84 games through the age of 27, so while he's not exactly on the pace of others, he's got a pretty high win total at a young age, and a couple of great seasons could put him on pace with those guys.

 

All the people you mentioned had weird mechanical flaws and/or put a ton of stress on their arms, and most of them wound up with injury problems. Mark really doesn't have those problems.

[Walker2Baines]

.

 

All the people you mentioned had weird mechanical flaws and/or put a ton of stress on their arms, and most of them wound up with injury problems. Mark really doesn't have those problems.

 

Did you ever see Gooden in 84-85? He was a poster boy for great mechanics. Know what the hell you're talking about before talk.

 

And anybody, even those with great mechanics can have injury problems. Look eight miles north at Chewing Gum Dump and #22.