How many Sox wins this season?

[VAfan]

Before the season started, I predicted 101 wins on the pre-season prediction thread. One more win than any team in franchise history.

 

But after seeing how easily this team has picked up where it left off last September-October, I wonder how many games we will win this year. Specifically, I wonder whether this team will go on the kind of tear that only a few teams in major league history have been on, most recently the 1998 New York Yankees and the 2001 Seattle Mariners.

 

Here's a link to the records of those teams:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/1998.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2001.shtml

 

The Yankees went 114-48, the M's did two games better at 116-46. The Yanks scored 965 runs and gave up 646. The M's scored 927 and gave up 627. Last year we scored 741 and gave up 645.

 

I'm not going to do a full analysis here. But I will say a few things. First, neither the Yanks nor the M's had a player hit 40 HRs. The Yanks didn't even have a 30 HR guy (the M's only had 1 - Bret Boone). Yet every starter on the Yanks drew 46 BBs or more and hit at least 10 HRs (so they still hit 207 as a team). The M's were not as consistent through the lineup (and hit only 162 HRs), but the team totals were remarkably similar.

 

These were the batting lines for each team:

Yanks. .288 BA, .362 OBP, .460 SLG

M's. .288 BA, .360 OBP, .445 SLG

 

On the pitching side, these were the rotations:

Yanks: Pettitte, Cone, Wells, Irabu, El Duque, Mendoza (swing)

M's: Garcia, Moyer, Sele, Abbott, Halama, Pinero

 

Bullpen:

Yanks: Rivera, Stanton, Lloyd, Nelson, Holmes

M's: Sasaki, Rhodes, Nelson, Paniagua, Charlton

 

So, how to compare? We have a lot more power than the M's, and will probably surpass the Yank's 207 HR total with everyone in our lineup but Pods hitting 10 or more. Yet we'll be hard pressed to match the BA or OBP of either team. On the pitching side, our rotation is much stronger than either the Yanks or M's -- they each had 3 200-inning guys, we have 5 -- but our bullpen isn't close to having the depth of Seattle's. And we don't have Rivera to finish games off.

 

If you boil it down to run differential, our pace after 18 games would put us remarkably close to the 1998 Yankees: 962 runs scored and 656 runs allowed. Now, I don't think we can keep up the offensive pace, but I also think we'll get better in the runs allowed department, putting us closer to Seattle's final numbers.

 

So there you have it. It's still very early, but the 2006 Sox have a chance to blow the roof off the franchise's 100-win ceiling. I think they'll do it. I just hope they finish the job like the 1998 Yanks did.

[Kalapse]

I still say the AL Central is far too strong for the Sox to win 101+ games no matter how hot we are right now. This offense is going to have it's ups and downs, that's just what you get with big time power hitters and average to slightly above average hitters at the bottom of the lineup. Also, AJ will not be hitting 10 HRs this year, so along with Pods we'll have two guys in the lineup with less than 10 and Pods might not hit any.

 

The starting pitching just might be strong enough to carry a struggling offense for an extended period of time but that might be asking too much. Once the Sox start playing some closer games and we go into the late innings up by 1 or 2 runs, that weak bullpen is going to show its ugly face and cripple their 1 run game record. The Sox are good enough to win the Central and are probably the best team in baseball this year but I wouldn't be getting my hopes up for anything more than 97 wins.

[southsider2k5]

I'll say this to the extreme optimists, just as quick as I will the extreme pessimists... Its early. You can't expect 6-7 guys to be hitting .300+, as well as you can't expect Anderson, Pods, Uribe to hit less than the Medoza line, while Garland, Politte, and Garcia sport near double digit ERAs. Its a long season and things will equalize out.

[indyman]

I'll say this to the extreme optimists, just as quick as I will the extreme pessimists...  Its early.  You can't expect 6-7 guys to be hitting .300+, as well as you can't expect Anderson, Pods, Uribe to hit less than the Medoza line, while Garland, Politte, and Garcia sport near double digit ERAs.  Its a long season and things will equalize out.

 

I'm not sure 101 wins is out of reach. Has there ever been a better 5 man rotation ..from top to bottom? The key (as always) is to stay heathy.

[southsider2k5]

I'm not sure 101 wins is out of reach.  Has there ever been a better 5 man rotation ..from top to bottom?  The key (as always) is to stay heathy.

99 wins last year was a lot of wins. Let's face it. The division is way better than last year, and we really fattened up on the AL Central We should be thrilled if we can duplicate teh 99 wins of last year, but talking about 116 wins being possible is just insane at this point of the season.

[WCSox]

I'm sticking with my original prediction of 95. The division is certainly better, but I don't think that KC and Detroit have improved enough to take away that many wins from us.

[LVSoxFan]

The only win statistic I'm ever concerned with is: take each series. You don't have to sweep every time, but if you can get those two out of three more often than not well, then... hello, it served us well in '05. And we did it with regularity until the September swoon.

 

Sweeps to me are gravy.

 

IMO it's way too early to even try and fathom a guess about what the end total will be. Maybe at the ASB it will be a little more guessable.

[RME JICO]

Both the 98 Yanks and 01 Mariners lead the AL in both batting (RS/G)and pitching (RA/G). I don't see the Sox leading the league in scoring.

 

Like Kalapse said, the AL Central is a tough Division, and the teams are going to beat up on each other all year long.

 

The one thing to look at is the strength of schedule. April is one of the Sox easiest months of 2006. It will be hard to maintain their current winning rate through the entire season. I still figure they will be right around 100 wins.

 

Here was an April's prediction thread:

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46084

[Balta1701]

99 wins last year was a lot of wins.  Let's face it.  The division is way better than last year, and we really fattened up on the AL Central  We should be thrilled if we can duplicate teh 99 wins of last year, but talking about 116 wins being possible is just insane at this point of the season.

Sadly, 2k5 is right here. And on top of it, not only is our division better this year, but the other divisions are probably better too...you've added pitching in Boston, Damon in NY, A ton of stuff in Toronto, some experience in Oakland, some pitching in Texas, some health and youth in Anaheim, and a few other quality pieces in Seattle.

 

That said, winning 100+ is certainly not out of the question, because on paper this team looks like a monster team to me. It may very well be up to the challenge. But it's going to be damn hard to pull off.

[Frankensteiner]

99 wins last year was a lot of wins.  Let's face it.  The division is way better than last year, and we really fattened up on the AL Central  We should be thrilled if we can duplicate teh 99 wins of last year, but talking about 116 wins being possible is just insane at this point of the season.

 

I'm not sure if we can say the division is way better at this point. Cleveland and Minnesota didn't do much to improve on paper. If you ask me, Cleveland actually took a step back by losing Crisp and Millwood. The Royal might be worse than they were last year, if that's even possible. Detroit looks improved, however.

[Balta1701]

I'm not sure if we can say the division is way better at this point. Cleveland and Minnesota didn't do much to improve on paper. If you ask me, Cleveland actually took a step back by losing Crisp and Millwood. The Royal might be worse than they were last year, if that's even possible. Detroit looks improved, however.

Cleveland got off to an absolutely godawful start last season with the bats. They've already avoided that this year. Of course, the question with them is pitching, as it is with many offensive teams.

 

Minny is better for a couple reasons. 1 - they have Torii Hunter back. 2 - Morneau is hitting the ball this season. 3 - their infield is a step above last year's. The question of course is their pitching staff...it was so damn good last year that a small step back could hurt it more than a decent jump in offense. If, for example, Santana can't get in a groove for a while, or Juan Roid-con struggles out of the pen, then they could be in for a long season too.

[WCSox]

Sadly, 2k5 is right here.  And on top of it, not only is our division better this year, but the other divisions are probably better too...you've added pitching in Boston, Damon in NY, A ton of stuff in Toronto, some experience in Oakland, some pitching in Texas, some health and youth in Anaheim, and a few other quality pieces in Seattle.

 

That said, winning 100+ is certainly not out of the question, because on paper this team looks like a monster team to me.  It may very well be up to the challenge.  But it's going to be damn hard to pull off.

 

I'm not sure that the rest of the AL improve that much. The Yankees haven't. The Angels lost two starting pitchers and Colon is back on the DL. Texas and Toronto have only improved marginally (this is especially true if Burnett's elbow is still problematic). The Twins have apparently gotten worse. IMO the only teams that have improved and are competitors are Boston and Oakland... and they were competitive last season. Detroit is better, but they're still going to struggle to win 80 games.

 

If we fail to win 90, though, we'll be in trouble because I think that Cleveland will win about that many.

[Rowand44]

This team is good enough to win 100 games but it's not getting anywhere near the 98 yanks or 01 Mariners marks.

[Rowand44]

Also as far as the AL Central goes, it's improved but our greatest competition from last year did get worse. Minny and Detroit will be better then last year when all is set and done but Cleveland is worse then they were last year, no doubt in my mind there. Also, balta, Cleveland has avoided that slow start but they're also not going to win every single game in August and September like they did last year.

[LVSoxFan]

Okay I'll bite seeing that we're less than a month into the season.

 

If I had to guess I'd say all roads for us eventually will go through Boston and/or Oakland.

 

It worked out that way last year with Boston and they seem to have it all together this year. Oakland's always a pain in our ass and I remember praying last year that we wouldn't have to face them in the post-season.

 

At the time, facing LAA didn't seem like a much better option, but, surprisingly, we stomped them.

 

I wouldn't count Cleveland out and would never count Minnesota out as far as our division goes.

 

On paper I think we look all-around great except for that big hole in the bullpen. If that doesn't improve and KW is able to deal our way out of that, then I'll be pretty confident we're at the top of the running.

[Pants Rowland]

Has there ever been a better 5 man rotation ..from top to bottom? The key (as always) is to stay heathy.

Prior, Wood, Clement, Zambrano, and Maddux?

[WSoxMatt]

I dont care, I jut want to make the playoffs then win 11 more postseason games!!!

[BlackBetsy]

Somebody kill this thread before the Baseball Gods take their revenge.

 

Here's another hot start that didn't turn out so well. Link

[GoodAsGould]

I think we can pass the 100 win mark. And I think people are way 2 worried about the bullpen. Jenks has been perfect in save opportunities cant ask more than that and the closer is the most important part. And than I fully expect Cotts to become dominant out of the pen and B-Mac has already shown his worth out of the bullpen.

 

Also Thornton has been useful and while he wont be as good as last season, Politte should improve from this horribly bad start.

[jphat007]

Cleveland got off to an absolutely godawful start last season with the bats.  They've already avoided that this year.  Of course, the question with them is pitching, as it is with many offensive teams.

 

Minny is better for a couple reasons.  1 - they have Torii Hunter back.  2 - Morneau is hitting the ball this season.  3 - their infield is a step above last year's.  The question of course is their pitching staff...it was so damn good last year that a small step back could hurt it more than a decent jump in offense.  If, for example, Santana can't get in a groove for a while, or Juan Roid-con struggles out of the pen, then they could be in for a long season too.

 

Morneau isn't quite hitting yet. Here is his line - .215 .271 .415

[Balta1701]

Morneau isn't quite hitting yet. Here is his line - .215 .271 .415

wow, didn't realize he was doing that bad, i've already seen him win a couple games for them with home runs.

[southsideirish71]

I am a bit conservative on my guess, but Eleventy Billion wins this season.

[beautox]

I'm not sure if we can say the division is way better at this point. Cleveland and Minnesota didn't do much to improve on paper. If you ask me, Cleveland actually took a step back by losing Crisp and Millwood. The Royal might be worse than they were last year, if that's even possible. Detroit looks improved, however.

Im going to have to agree, Cleveland aside from having lost both Crisp and Millwood, does'nt have the pitching to sustain sucess as seen on the other thread, their starters are not getting it done, and its bringing down their bullpen. The Royals might actually be worse, Detroit does look improved and i would'nt be supprised if comes down the tigers being the main threat against us in the central but even at that their pitching staff is still young and untested. Personally im predicting the Sox to win 104

[Allsox]

Doesn't matter to me if they win 100 or 95, just get in the postseason and let the starting pitching take them back to the World Series!

 

Boston may have Schilling and Beckett but beyond that, their rotation is crap and Cleveland's already seeing some issues with their starters as well so they wouldn't scare me too much in an ALCS if the Sox get past the ALDS (I say "if" only in respect to the Baseball Gods!

[ZoomSlowik]

As good as we look right now, it'll be tough to keep winning at this kind of pace. We've only played one team that is projected to finish above 3rd so far, and we lost that series to Cleveland. Our team looks very good on paper, but I have a hard time envisioning our offense being this good all year, and I'd feel a lot better if we could add another solid bullpen arm.

 

I think I said about 98 at the beginning of the year, which still seems about right.

Edited April 24, 2006 by ZoomSlowik