Do we rely too much on homeruns again

[fathom]

Thome isnt exactly a singles hitter, so most likely with a base open, he will get walked.  So you have effectively taken the bat out of our best hitter's hands just to move a runner who had around a 50 percent chance to get to second with Thome up anyway. 

 

And then you have Konerko up with men on 1st and 2nd. If he hits a grounder on the infield, the inning is over.

[jphat007]

And then you have Konerko up with men on 1st and 2nd.  If he hits a grounder on the infield, the inning is over.

 

Or he could double and score 1 and have 2 in scoring poisition or hit a hr or load the bases. How many dps does paul have this year? Extra base runners are never a problem

Edited May 5, 2006 by jphat007

[Controlled Chaos]

Pods still has to find his comfort zone on the basepaths.  If he never goes, he'll never find it.  I don't like the way he's been running either, but I know how valuable his intimidation by speed can be.

It's even more intimadating in the playoffs. Pitchers get awful jittery with someone like Pods on first base in the playoffs. They rush the delivery, they worry more about the runner and the pressure gets ratched up. They know if Pods gets to second he most likely scores on a basehit. Every run is huge in the playoffs. I like all these things going thru the pitchers head when they're trying to pitch. I don't want to take that threat away. I say go Pods go.

[fathom]

Or he could double and score 1 and have 2 in scoring poisition or hit a hr or load the bases. How many dps does paul have this year? Extra base runners are never a problem

 

If he's going to double, then the runner was going to score anyways. In the first week, where Ozzie tried to play a lot of small ball, I believe PK hit into four double plays. My philosophy is quite simple: unless it's the 8th or 9th inning in a tie game, you don't bunt in front of Thome and Konerko. If Pods can't steal a base against a reliever in a late game situation, then his value is even lower than most of us give him credit for.

[RockRaines]

If he's going to double, then the runner was going to score anyways.  In the first week, where Ozzie tried to play a lot of small ball, I believe PK hit into four double plays.  My philosophy is quite simple:  unless it's the 8th or 9th inning in a tie game, you don't bunt in front of Thome and Konerko.  If Pods can't steal a base against a reliever in a late game situation, then his value is even lower than most of us give him credit for.

Thats the thing. Thome is a 280 hitter with a 400+ OBP. If 1B is open this year, he wont see a pitch. So regardless or whether you bunt PODs over, or Iguchi just swings himself out, theres around a 40+ percent chance that with Konerko up it will be 1st and 2nd. Iguchi is probably our best hitter right now, and taking the bat out of his hands to just move PODS to 2nd is just stupid. The odds are he will reach second almost a majority of the time, whether he steals or Thome gets walked. PLaying for 1 run is a great idea, but its not always with PODS and iguchi, because at this point, letting Gooch swing is more beneficial.

[hammerhead johnson]

Thome isnt exactly a singles hitter, so most likely with a base open, he will get walked.  So you have effectively taken the bat out of our best hitter's hands just to move a runner who had around a 50 percent chance to get to second with Thome up anyway.  In that situation, it almost makes more sense to let iguchi hit and try to advance Pods to 3rd on a single, or back to 1st on a fly out.  Its more beneficial to let iguchi try and either drive PODS in, or advance him to 3rd on a good at bat, instead of taking the bat out of his hands, and then taking it out of Thome's hands.  With your reasoning you are taking the bat out of two of our top hitter's hands, with no real benefit over what could have occurred without a sacrafice.  This is the overall change that has come to with a 3rd place hitter with a .500 OBP, and 40 HR potential.

 

LOL, so the #2 hitter should NOT try to get that leadoff guy in scoring position for the 3/4/5 of Thome/Konerko/Dye????

 

You're in favor of sitting around and waiting for a HR. That's winning baseball.

[jphat007]

If he's going to double, then the runner was going to score anyways.  In the first week, where Ozzie tried to play a lot of small ball, I believe PK hit into four double plays.  My philosophy is quite simple:  unless it's the 8th or 9th inning in a tie game, you don't bunt in front of Thome and Konerko.  If Pods can't steal a base against a reliever in a late game situation, then his value is even lower than most of us give him credit for.

 

He has 3 total GIDP this year.

 

PS, jsut for everyone's FYI, Pods is batting .360 with around a .400 OBP since April 15 just in case anybody needed some stats of his streak.

Edited May 5, 2006 by jphat007

[hammerhead johnson]

Thats the thing.  Thome is a 280 hitter with a 400+ OBP.  If 1B is open this year, he wont see a pitch.  So regardless or whether you bunt PODs over, or Iguchi just swings himself out, theres around a 40+ percent chance that with Konerko up it will be 1st and 2nd.  Iguchi is probably our best hitter right now, and taking the bat out of his hands to just move PODS to 2nd is just stupid.  The odds are he will reach second almost a majority of the time, whether he steals or Thome gets walked.  PLaying for 1 run is a great idea, but its not always with PODS and iguchi, because at this point, letting Gooch swing is more beneficial.

 

As long as Tadahito attempts to move that runner over, I'll be content. If he is able to reach base while in the process of forcing the action, that's just gravy.

[fathom]

He has 3 total GIDP this year.

 

 

And those were all in the first 3 games of the year, I believe (in which jabroni was pointing out how Ozzie was trying to utilize the bunt poorly).

[RockRaines]

LOL, so the #2 hitter should NOT try to get that leadoff guy in scoring position for the 3/4/5 of Thome/Konerko/Dye????

 

You're in favor of sitting around and waiting for a HR.  That's winning baseball.

I guess you dont understand the concept. If Iguchi, who is probably our best hitter right now, sacrafices PODs to 2nd base, will the odds are with first base open, Thome will be walked, so now you have 1st and 2nd with Kong up.

 

Lets say that iguchi flied out instead of moving pods. You now have Thome up with about a 40+ percent chance of reaching base. I would say there is a good chance he either hits a double, HR or gets walked. Then you have 1st and 2nd with Konerko up.

 

Now if you hit and run with Iguchi and PODS, and Iguchi singles you have 1st and 3rd, no outs, with Thome up. Now thats winning baseball.

[hammerhead johnson]

Extra base runners are never a problem

 

Sure they are.

 

We're gonna need an infinite amount of these:

[fathom]

As long as Tadahito attempts to move that runner over, I'll be content.  If he is able to reach base while in the process of forcing the action, that's just gravy.

 

It's a different situation if Pods can get to 2nd base, and then be bunted over to 3rd base with less than 2 outs. The underlying issue is that if we can't count on Pods to be able to steal 2nd base at a frequent rate when he gets on, then his value goes WAY down. After watching Iguchi play in about 200 games for the Sox, it's easy to observe that his worst swings are when he's trying to protect Pods. He's a smart enough hitter that Ozzie should trust him more with a hit-and-run. Iguchi swings and misses most at sliders low and away, and if he misses that pitch, Pods should have a good chance of being successful on the steal attempt.

[fathom]

I guess you dont understand the concept.  If Iguchi, who is probably our best hitter right now, sacrafices PODs to 2nd base, will the odds are with first base open, Thome will be walked, so now you have 1st and 2nd with Kong up. 

 

Lets say that iguchi flied out instead of moving pods.  You now have Thome up with about a 40+ percent chance of reaching base.  I would say there is a good chance he either hits a double, HR or gets walked.  Then you have 1st and 2nd with Konerko up.

 

Now if you hit and run with Iguchi and PODS, and Iguchi singles you have 1st and 3rd, no outs, with Thome up.  Now thats winning baseball.

 

Unless it's the 8th or 9th inning, why give up outs with our powerful middle of the order coming up?

Edited May 5, 2006 by fathom

[hammerhead johnson]

I guess you dont understand the concept. 

 

Yeah, I have you figured out. You want to wait around and pray that Thome hits a double or a HR while first base is occupied. But if first base is not occupied and Thome gets a walk, we are f***ed!

 

Because walks are teh worst!!! Especially with Konerko and Dye coming up.

[hammerhead johnson]

It's a different situation if Pods can get to 2nd base, and then be bunted over to 3rd base with less than 2 outs. 

 

I'm strictly talking about getting that man in scoring position with less than two outs. Playing for one run at a time. I figured that a guy like you would understand that, but you're greedy just like the vast majority.

 

/blatant honesty

[RockRaines]

       

Unless it's the 8th or 9th inning, why give up outs with our powerful middle of the order coming up?

Well, with the team the way it is this year, there is almost no difference between sacraficing PODS over to 2nd vs letting Iguchi swing. Last year our 3rd place hitter had an OBP of barely 300, while they werent nearly as dangerous as Thome is. With Thome's walks, the field shift, and his power potential, its almost better to have him hitting with a runner on 1st, than on 2nd, because with an open base, the bat is basically taken out of his hands, and also Iguchi's. Last year it worked wonders because we wanted to rely on singles and flares from our 3rd place hitter, but this year its not the case.

[RockRaines]

Yeah, I have you figured out.  You want to wait around and pray  that Thome hits a double or a HR while first base is occupied.  But if first base is not occupied and Thome gets a walk, we are f***ed! 

 

Because walks are teh worst!!!  Especially with Konerko and Dye coming up.

Why would you want to take the bats out of probably our 2 best hitters right now? I dont understand that concept. Theres no overall benefit. You either let iguchi swing and have the added benefit of 1st and 3rd with no outs, or maybe even an RBI. Or take the bat out of his hands, and then take the bat out of your best hitters hands.

[fathom]

I'm strictly talking about getting that man in scoring position with less than two outs.  Playing for one run at a time.  I figured that a guy like you would understand that, but you're greedy just like the vast majority.

 

/blatant honesty

 

Yep, playing for one run at at time, in the American League, is pretty dumb. Especially when the ball is jumping at our park. From the 8th inning on, playing for one run does make sense though.

[RockRaines]

Yep, playing for one run at at time, in the American League, is pretty dumb.  Especially when the ball is jumping at our park.  From the 8th inning on, playing for one run does make sense though.

You can even play for one run without having Iguchi sacrafice himself. If he swings and gets himself out, there is already almost a 50 percent chance that Thome will reach first base somehow. So you may already have PODS in scoring position with Konerko up. Thus, the same result, but with the benefit of having Thome actually see some pitches. Also with the field shift and how fast PODS is, the DP is not automatic, so with a ground ball you still have a runner in scoring position with Konerko up. So you have the same results, but instead of giving up outs, we have a chance of scoring more than one.

[RockRaines]

Basically Thome's OBP and power potential changes the face of this team, and how we manage our offense, especially early in the game. Look at yesterday's game, if Iguchi bunts or sac's PODS to 2nd base, and they walk Thome because the base is open, do we even win that game?

[fathom]

Basically Thome's OBP and power potential changes the face of this team, and how we manage our offense, especially early in the game.  Look at yesterday's game, if Iguchi bunts or sac's PODS to 2nd base, and they walk Thome because the base is open, do we even win that game?

 

Let me just add that I think Ozzie's done a very good job of managing to Thome's strength since the first series of the season.

[hammerhead johnson]

Why would you want to take the bats out of probably our 2 best hitters right now?  I dont understand that concept.  Theres no overall benefit.  You either let iguchi swing and have the added benefit of 1st and 3rd with no outs, or maybe even an RBI.  Or take the bat out of his hands, and then take the bat out of your best hitters hands.

 

Then maybe Iguchi is a #6 hitter, but we need to get that leadoff man (whoever is leading off an inning, not just Podsednik) in scoring position. That's what championship teams do, because you're not going to slug your way deep into the playoffs. Once in a great while you'll have an exception like the late 80s Oakland As. LaRussa was of that same train of thought: let's not get too aggressive with Lansford/Weiss sacrificing themselves to put Henderson into scoring positon. Let's wait for Jose and Mark to clean up. They got their one championship, but it should have been like three or four if their offense was more conservative, given the circumstances. Playoff ball is all about defense and conservative offense. That applies to all the major organized team sports.

[southsideirish71]

If the team is batting .230 and only scores via the dong, then worry. But when we are hitting at a good clip, have a real good OBP then dont. The homer is just a nature of our team. Especially with Thome, Konerko, Dye and Crede in the lineup.

[fathom]

Then maybe Iguchi is a #6 hitter, but we need to get that leadoff man (whoever is leading off an inning, not just Podsednik) in scoring position. 

 

Then maybe we should have a leadoff hitter who can steal 2nd at a high rate, or he can get into scoring position by actually getting an extra base hit. It was a lot more important to have a RISP for someone like Carl Everett than it is Jim Thome.

[fathom]

If the team is batting .230 and only scores via the dong, then worry.  But when we are hitting at a good clip, have a real good OBP then dont.  The homer is just a nature of our team.  Especially with Thome, Konerko, Dye and Crede in the lineup.

 

Right now, our 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 are all tough outs. Not many teams in baseball can have 6 players (a 7th with the way Pods has been lately) swing the bats well for an entire month.