Report: highly enriched U235 found in Iran

[Balta1701]

So, if this leak is true, and it stands up to the barrage of tests that whatever sample they have will be put through, then this is a very significant development in the Iran nuclear case.

 

Thus far, the U.S. and the IAEA have had absolutely no physical evidence they could present to anyone which would prove that Iran has begun enriching uranium for purposes other than energy (enrichment which is allowed under the nonproiliferation treaty). The only argument the U.S. has had to use is to say that it makes no sense for a fossil-fuel rich country to build nuclear technology for anything other than weapons purposes, but a circumstantial case here certainly is not a solid one.

 

If this is true, and the IAEA has found traces of uranium in Iran enriched by beyond the few percent necessary for civilian purposes, then the U.S. will have actual proof, verified by the U.N., of Iran possessing a military nuclear program. They're still going to be 10 years away from a bomb, but that sort of evidence could very easily create allies for the U.S. and back Iran into a corner. Russia and China, for example, would have a harder time blocking U.N. resolutions to stop Iran's nuclear program if the IAEA had that evidence in hand.

 

Finally, while this is potentially important, we also shouldn't jump the gun here...traces of highly enriched uranium 235 were found previously in Iran, but they turned out to have come from Pakistan. Further tests will decide that issue definitively, which is probably why there has been no official statement thus far.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Rex. You still think its a good idea to dither around and take Iran's bulls*** overtures to heart?

[Balta1701]

Rex. You still think its a good idea to dither around and take Iran's bulls*** overtures to heart?

Yes. Because this would seriously hurt their negotiating position, and bombing will only strengthen it and weaken ours.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Yes. Because this would seriously hurt their negotiating position, and bombing will only strengthen it and weaken ours.

 

 

I would agree if I didn't believe the Iranians are using this process to buy themselves time while they charge ahead with their crash program to develop nukes. I dont believe for a second that they are interested in negotiating and resolving this peacefully. If you think the Middle East is ugly now just wait till Iran and their Al Quada cohorts get a hold of a nuke.

Edited May 12, 2006 by NUKE_CLEVELAND

[southsider2k5]

And we are surprised why? Iran has been trying to build a nuclear bomb since the 70's, and I still haven't heard a good reason to believe them when they say they aren't doing it, other than, they say they aren't doing it. Even if they did come from Pakistan, all that means is they are out on the open market buying from guys like AQ Kahn and his ilk, which doesn't make me sleep at night any better... It still means that Iran is actively pursuing a nuclear program.

[Balta1701]

And we are surprised why? Iran has been trying to build a nuclear bomb since the 70's, and I still haven't heard a good reason to believe them when they say they aren't doing it, other than, they say they aren't doing it. Even if they did come from Pakistan, all that means is they are out on the open market buying from guys like AQ Kahn and his ilk, which doesn't make me sleep at night any better... It still means that Iran is actively pursuing a nuclear program.

Under the nonproliferation treaty, Iran is allowed to enrich uranium for energy uses. That, as far as I understand it, is all that people have thus far been able to prove that they've been doing. Even the technology that they imported from Khan's network (which we already knew they did btw) has thus far only been shown to be in use for civilian purposes. We shouldn't be surprised by this...but we should take advantage of it now that we have it.

 

I would agree if I didn't believe the Iranians are using this process to buy themselves time while they charge ahead with their crash program to develop nukes. I dont believe for a second that they are interested in negotiating and resolving this peacefully. If you think the Middle East is ugly now just wait till Iran and their Al Quada cohorts get a hold of a nuke.

I agree in principle with you, but I'll add 1 more thing...by all accounts, time is on our side. Iran simply does not have the equipment to do the job faster than within a decade. Even if they have twice as much stuff as we know about, we still have 5 years. If they're not interested in negotiating, then we'll be able to bring a much greater amount of both diplomatic pressure and eventually force in order to force them to back down. But we have to be willing to sit down first.

[southsideirish71]

Under the nonproliferation treaty, Iran is allowed to enrich uranium for energy uses. That, as far as I understand it, is all that people have thus far been able to prove that they've been doing. Even the technology that they imported from Khan's network (which we already knew they did btw) has thus far only been shown to be in use for civilian purposes. We shouldn't be surprised by this...but we should take advantage of it now that we have it.

I agree in principle with you, but I'll add 1 more thing...by all accounts, time is on our side. Iran simply does not have the equipment to do the job faster than within a decade. Even if they have twice as much stuff as we know about, we still have 5 years. If they're not interested in negotiating, then we'll be able to bring a much greater amount of both diplomatic pressure and eventually force in order to force them to back down. But we have to be willing to sit down first.

 

 

I wonder if energy starved North Korea would be willing to give crazy I want a bomb the Zionists Iran some nuclear technology for some oil. Sounds like both sides have something the other needs, and a mutual enemy. HMMMM sound like a match made in heaven.

 

We keep pussy footing around the obvious. Iran wants a nuclear weapon, and they want to destroy their buddies the Israelies. I know you have Professor Coles unbiased opinion on this, but I think the huge mountain of evidence that basically says, if it looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, and waddles like one. Maybe its a duck after all.

 

 

In a few years, if we dont fix this. This will be the only way to solve the Iran crisis if they get a nuke.

 

Glass in the desert.

Edited May 13, 2006 by southsideirish71

[Rex Kickass]

Rex. You still think its a good idea to dither around and take Iran's bulls*** overtures to heart?

 

Everything I've ever been taught about International Relations tells me its absolutely a good idea, especially when you're talking about a window of years, not months.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Everything I've ever been taught about International Relations tells me its absolutely a good idea, especially when you're talking about a window of years, not months.

 

 

Thats exactly what people said in the early/mid 90's about North Korea. Oh we have time, nothing to worry about. Look where that got us. The "diplomacy" we're engaged in is a sham designed by the Iranians to buy time for them to complete work on a bomb. The idea that they're 10 years or so away from a bomb is a shaky estimate at best and does not account for the fact that they are swapping nuclear technology with the N. Koreans in exchange for desperately needed oil and other goods.

 

 

Iran is a ticking time bomb. Literally.

Edited May 14, 2006 by NUKE_CLEVELAND

[Rex Kickass]

That's great. But you forget that the Bush administration closed off diplomatic dialogue with North Korea in 2001 - about the same time that they intensified efforts to get a nuclear weapon. And now, we're stuck in a stalemate with an Atomic North Korea which helps ensure the state's stability and also helps make regime change less possible from outside forces because of the risk of a nuclear blast in the region.

 

So we seem to have a couple different scenarios - a set of options that you seem to support and a set of options that I seem to support.

 

I seem to support the idea of a diplomatic dialogue with a goal of a peaceful settlement to the situation, while preparing ourselves to take part in any necessary measures to ensure resolution in our favor down the road.

 

You seem to support one of two ideas (and I'm unsure which): Do nothing and whine "I told you so" when Iran does become nuclear. Or enter a military conflict that we clearly are not ready for nearly immediately since this untested possibility of dialogue is bulls*** because other countries didn't talk to us before.

[Cerbaho-WG]

It becomes suitable for use in nuclear weapons when enriched to more than 90 percent.

 

Anything over 20% is considered highly enriched uranium, so there needs to be a whole lot more information before people start calling for a bombing campaign. That being said, I'd give Iran a few years before they can make a crude weapon. If they just enriched uranium, which is a pretty heavy assumption to accept, then there is no way they can make a nuclear arm in such a short period of time (months). Years, yes, but months, no.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

That's great. But you forget that the Bush administration closed off diplomatic dialogue with North Korea in 2001 - about the same time that they intensified efforts to get a nuclear weapon. And now, we're stuck in a stalemate with an Atomic North Korea which helps ensure the state's stability and also helps make regime change less possible from outside forces because of the risk of a nuclear blast in the region.

 

So we seem to have a couple different scenarios - a set of options that you seem to support and a set of options that I seem to support.

 

I seem to support the idea of a diplomatic dialogue with a goal of a peaceful settlement to the situation, while preparing ourselves to take part in any necessary measures to ensure resolution in our favor down the road.

 

You seem to support one of two ideas (and I'm unsure which): Do nothing and whine "I told you so" when Iran does become nuclear. Or enter a military conflict that we clearly are not ready for nearly immediately since this untested possibility of dialogue is bulls*** because other countries didn't talk to us before.

 

 

If countries like Iran were genuinely interested in diplomacy then Id be all for it but when its simply a sham to buy time then its worthless.

[Rex Kickass]

The only person it buys time for is us.

 

So I guess I can firmly putting you in the camp for whining about Iran but doing nothing. Good then.