Detroit For Real

[3E8]

I know the park is massive but we're a quarter of the way through this season and Detroit is giving up just over three runs a game. That's tops in both leagues, and we're the next closest in the AL giving up over four and a half runs a game.

[Soxpranos]

And staying on the "going out on a limb" kick...I'll admit that the White Sox play in Chicago.

 

 

[Heads22]

It's a trite phrase, but "to be the best, you have to beat the best".

 

I'm not gonna consider them with us til they can beat us consistently.

[JackTalkThai]

I know the park is massive but we're a quarter of the way through this season and Detroit is giving up just over three runs a game. That's tops in both leagues, and we're the next closest in the AL giving up over four and a half runs a game.

 

 

All -five- of Detroit's starters are in the top 15 in the American League in qualified ERA.

 

#1 Contreras, CWS - 1.41

#2 Maroth, DET - 2.18

#6 Verlander, DET - 3.18

#7 Rogers, DET - 3.23

#9 Buehrle, CWS - 3.42

#12 Robertson, DET - 3.50

#15 Bonderman, DET - 3.74

#17 Vazquez, CWS - 3.88

 

Whatever they've been doing has been working and working WELL...but I completely agree on the point above that everything goes through Chicago. Until Detroit proves that they can beat the Sox, it won't matter if they have a multiple game lead in the Central...they'll still be #2.

[WilliamTell]

The Tigers are playing better than the Pistons right now, haha.

[DBAHO]

Who honestly believes Maroth is going to have an ERA under 3 for the rest of the season?

 

I just can't see their offense continuing to hit the way it has, when they show not much plate discipline at all, and their SP will come back down to earth.

[WilliamTell]

Wow, Bonderman has the worst ERA out of the 5 right now, that's insane. 23 game loser Mike Maroth in the #2 spot and I don't think that'll stay either.

[ZoomSlowik]

A couple of notes on the Tigers "vaunted" pitching staff.

 

I can't really argue against Bonderman or Verlander. Both are quite talented and have the potential to do well. However, it's far from a given that they keep pitching well. Bonderman has yet to post a sub-4.50 ERA in his three full major league seasons. This might be a Jon Garland-like breakout year, or it might be more of the same. Verlander is a rookie, so who knows exactly what he'll give you from here on out. Maybe he keeps dominating, maybe he has a few more rough outings like the one against the Sox. It's a crap shoot. The outlook for the rest of the staff isn't as rosy.

 

Mike Maroth is getting really lucky right now. His WHIP is at 1.40 and his strikeout rate is only at 3.70. That suggests that he should have a much higher ERA than he currently does. An awful lot of balls are being put in play and a lot of men are getting on base against him without much damage being done. That won't last forever. Combine that with his 4.69 career ERA in 4 seasons in the majors and things don't look so good. Nate Robinson is similar. Despite a WHIP of 1.34, he has a respectable ERA. He strikes out guys a little more frequently, but he's not exactly Randy Johnson. He's another guy with a high career ERA (4.77) that so far has allowed fewer runs that one would expect.

 

Kenny Rogers is a notorius quick starter who starts to fade around the All-star break. Over the last 3 years he has a 3.87 ERA before the break and a 4.80 ERA after it. Evidence suggests that he's doing the same thing this year. There's no way he finishes with a 3.23 ERA.

 

The comparisons to the 2005 staff are out of line. The Tigers' staff has a very spotty major league resume, outside of a few decent years from Kenny Rogers. They don't have anywhere near as much experience or as successful a past as the Sox staff last year. Garland had the least experience on the Sox staff, and he still had more than every starter on the Tigers except Rogers. One could argue that Contreras had little major league experience, but he also was pitching in the Cuban professional leagues while the kids on the Tigers were still in grammar school. Plus, the Sox starters had a much greater history of success. Buerhle was already an established pitcher with three 15-win seasons under his belt in his 4 and a half in the majors. Freddy Garcia also had 3 15-win seasons under his belt, and might have had another in 2004 if he had been on the Sox the whole year. Orlando Hernandez was a fairly solid starter for the Yankees who had a dominant history in the playoffs. Only Rogers has any history of success, and that's balanced by years of mediocrity.

 

Detroit has a decent team, but by no means is this team a threat to win 95 games or more like the White Sox are. There pitching has been good so far, but there is no way it is as strong as ours. They still have to play a lot of games against us. If they can hold their own, maybe I'll reconsider. But right now, they're probably going to max out at about 90 wins, and my guess is 88. That shouldn't be enough to be a major threat to the Sox unless some things go wrong.

Edited May 18, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[aboz56]

Last time I checked, they still have 16 more games against us.

 

And so far they are 0-3.

 

To be the champion, you've got to beat the champion.

[hi8is]

we all knew that the division would be a battle... we just didnt expect detroit to be this close... now we expect them to fade.....

 

its all good, i think we're gonna rip em... we still have an 18 game winning streak to obtain.

 

that'll f*** em up.

[VAfan]

The Tigers are winning a lot like we won last year, with great starting pitching, a shut down bullpen, and just enough offense to win. I don't fear them, but I think they will be in the race for a long time. Expect their youngish rotation to "hit the wall" in the dog days of August, but that will just knock their 100+ win pace back down into the 90s. Cleveland, which hasn't proven it can beat the Tigers and has a much-weakened pitching staff, is going to be hard pressed to keep pace. Minnesota is already toast. Sure, Santana's solid and Liriano might come on, but the rest of their starters are done. They won't make it to .500 if they lose 19 games to the Tigers.

 

We just need to keep our starters healthy, (Contreras's trip to the DL showed just how valuable he is), and beat the Tigers more than they beat us, and I think we'll crack the 100-win ceiling for the first time in franchise history.

[Jimbo's Drinker]

I am watching their feed today, every 3rd word is about the sox. The announcers say they are hoping to continue to beat on bad teams and teams on their downfalls.

[hammerhead johnson]

A couple of notes on the Tigers "vaunted" pitching staff.

 

I can't really argue against Bonderman or Verlander. Both are quite talented and have the potential to do well. However, it's far from a given that they keep pitching well. Bonderman has yet to post a sub-4.50 ERA in his three full major league seasons. This might be a Jon Garland-like breakout year, or it might be more of the same. Verlander is a rookie, so who knows exactly what he'll give you from here on out. Maybe he keeps dominating, maybe he has a few more rough outings like the one against the Sox. It's a crap shoot. The outlook for the rest of the staff isn't as rosy.

 

Mike Maroth is getting really lucky right now. His WHIP is at 1.40 and his strikeout rate is only at 3.70. That suggests that he should have a much higher ERA than he currently does. An awful lot of balls are being put in play and a lot of men are getting on base against him without much damage being done. That won't last forever. Combine that with his 4.69 career ERA in 4 seasons in the majors and things don't look so good. Nate Robinson is similar. Despite a WHIP of 1.34, he has a respectable ERA. He strikes out guys a little more frequently, but he's not exactly Randy Johnson. He's another guy with a high career ERA (4.77) that so far has allowed fewer runs that one would expect.

 

Kenny Rogers is a notorius quick starter who starts to fade around the All-star break. Over the last 3 years he has a 3.87 ERA before the break and a 4.80 ERA after it. Evidence suggests that he's doing the same thing this year. There's no way he finishes with a 3.23 ERA.

 

The comparisons to the 2005 staff are out of line. The Tigers' staff has a very spotty major league resume, outside of a few decent years from Kenny Rogers. They don't have anywhere near as much experience or as successful a past as the Sox staff last year. Garland had the least experience on the Sox staff, and he still had more than every starter on the Tigers except Rogers. One could argue that Contreras had little major league experience, but he also was pitching in the Cuban professional leagues while the kids on the Tigers were still in grammar school. Plus, the Sox starters had a much greater history of success. Buerhle was already an established pitcher with three 15-win seasons under his belt in his 4 and a half in the majors. Freddy Garcia also had 3 15-win seasons under his belt, and might have had another in 2004 if he had been on the Sox the whole year. Orlando Hernandez was a fairly solid starter for the Yankees who had a dominant history in the playoffs. Only Rogers has any history of success, and that's balanced by years of mediocrity.

 

Detroit has a decent team, but by no means is this team a threat to win 95 games or more like the White Sox are. There pitching has been good so far, but there is no way it is as strong as ours. They still have to play a lot of games against us. If they can hold their own, maybe I'll reconsider. But right now, they're probably going to max out at about 90 wins, and my guess is 88. That shouldn't be enough to be a major threat to the Sox unless some things go wrong.

 

Right on.

 

And like I said before, their bullpen has impressed me moreso than their raw starting staff (w/ the exception of Rogers).

 

Fernando Rodney (1.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, .136 BAA)

Joel Zumaya (2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .180 AVG)

Jamie Walker (1.04 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, .212 BAA)

Bobby Seay (3.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .120 BAA)

Jordan Tata (3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .180 BAA)

 

Those BAA numbers are sick. You are looking at their team strength. I'm not saying that Seay and Tata are going to keep this up, but they've been pretty damn effective thus far.

 

Todd Jones has s***ty numbers (3.65 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .313 BAA), but he has converted 11 of his 12 save opportunities.

[RME JICO]

A big reason why some teams have losing records is because they have played the Sox and Tigers. So at this point it is too early to use schedules for or against teams.

 

Leyland has them playing inspired baseball. Everyone knew the Tigers would score runs, but I don't think anyone expected their pitching to be leading the league.

 

I still cannot believe that Maroth was a 21 game loser in 2003 and now has an ERA that is less than half his career average. Will he keep that up? Bonderman lost 19 in 2003 and Robertson lost 16 last year, and I just don't see these guys maintaining this for a full year.

[Jimbo's Drinker]

The tigers look like th second half indians of last year, lots of homers. I have also see them make some really stupid running mistakes.

[GoodAsGould]

A big reason why some teams have losing records is because they have played the Sox and Tigers. So at this point it is too early to use schedules for or against teams.

 

Leyland has them playing inspired baseball. Everyone knew the Tigers would score runs, but I don't think anyone expected their pitching to be leading the league.

 

I still cannot believe that Maroth was a 21 game loser in 2003 and now has an ERA that is less than half his career average. Will he keep that up? Bonderman lost 19 in 2003 and Robertson lost 16 last year, and I just don't see these guys maintaining this for a full year.

 

You cant blame those pitchers for their loss records that year. The tigers were just horribly bad and at the time those guys were young and at the 1st year or 2 in their major league career. Almost any pitcher begining his career would of had 15 plus losses on that team.

[RockRaines]

Right on.

 

And like I said before, their bullpen has impressed me moreso than their raw starting staff (w/ the exception of Rogers).

 

Fernando Rodney (1.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, .136 BAA)

Joel Zumaya (2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .180 AVG)

Jamie Walker (1.04 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, .212 BAA)

Bobby Seay (3.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .120 BAA)

Jordan Tata (3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .180 BAA)

 

Those BAA numbers are sick. You are looking at their team strength. I'm not saying that Seay and Tata are going to keep this up, but they've been pretty damn effective thus far.

 

Todd Jones has s***ty numbers (3.65 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .313 BAA), but he has converted 11 of his 12 save opportunities.

I agree with you there, but mostly I agree with the WHIP argument that was presented before. With a WHIP as high as many of their guys, their ERA cant possibly keep it up with a low k rate. IM not worried about them....yet

[hi8is]

You cant blame those pitchers for their loss records that year. The tigers were just horribly bad and at the time those guys were young and at the 1st year or 2 in their major league career. Almost any pitcher begining his career would of had 15 plus losses on that team.

true dat

[The Ginger Kid]

While I do think they'll fade, I give Leyland a ton of credit for their impressive play.

[hammerhead johnson]

Todd Jones has s***ty numbers (3.65 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .313 BAA), but he has converted 11 of his 12 save opportunities.

 

And his numbers just got worse after today's game. 1 run allowed on 3 hits.

 

There is something to be said for a guy who has been successful in 12 out 13 save opportunities, but Todd kinda sucks. I don't know how he's doing it.

[winninguglyin83]

wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Detroit to go away.

 

They finally have a legit GM and manager.

 

They built a team that fits their park -- pitching oriented.

 

And they've got a veteran lineup with guys who have pennant race experience.

 

They won't play at a 27-13 pace all season.

 

But they're a 90-win team.

[ZoomSlowik]

wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Detroit to go away.

 

They finally have a legit GM and manager.

 

They built a team that fits their park -- pitching oriented.

 

And they've got a veteran lineup with guys who have pennant race experience.

 

They won't play at a 27-13 pace all season.

 

But they're a 90-win team.

 

Where are all these guys with serious playoff experience? They have one guy who has actually won anything in I-Rod, and Maggs took part in a sweep in the ALDS. I must have missed a lot of playoff appearances by Dimitri Young, Carlos Guillen, Chris Shelton, Placido Polanco, and Brandon Inge.

[Capn12]

You need an argument for whether or not Detroit is 'real' or not?

 

 

Do you really expect their pitching to stay THAT hot all year, honestly? And please keep in mind that their schedule at the beginning and the end of June will speak volumes as to where they stand in this division.

[beck72]

A lot seems to be going right for the Tigers now. Hats off to them. They are playing good ball. but I'd be very, very surprised if they continued at the pace they are now. Esp the pitching. Leading the league in ERA by a run a game in mid-May is one thing. But expecting their young arms in both the rotation and bullpen to continue that roll to the allstar break and beyond is a lot to ask for.

[BigSqwert]

Kenny Rogers is a notorius quick starter who starts to fade around the All-star break. Over the last 3 years he has a 3.87 ERA before the break and a 4.80 ERA after it. Evidence suggests that he's doing the same thing this year. There's no way he finishes with a 3.23 ERA.

He is now pitching in a hitter's park and won't have to deal with 120 degree Texas heat. Might do a little better in the 2nd half this year.