Detroit For Real

[JackTalkThai]

There's no statistical logic that says they will play .500 ball from here on out because of their hot start. There have been plenty of teams that start out on fire just to fizzle out. A few examples are the Orioles and Dodgers last year, and the Royals from a few years ago. For every team that keeps it up like the 2005 Sox, there are 2 other teams that don't. All you need is one prolonged losing streak to kill that pace, and there's a chance that one is coming with their schedule between now and the break.

 

Actually there is some statistical logic that disagrees with you to an extent. It was reported on a broadcast recently that of the teams in the history of baseball that began the season with a 27-13 (or better) record, I believe it was 95% of them finished the season with a .555 or better winning percentage which translates to 90+ wins. I know it has only happened four times with the Tigers organization and all four times they finished the season with 95+ wins, with two of the seasons ending with a World Championship (1968 and 1984).

 

That being said and returning to your second point...what are the constants that tend to separate the teams that fizzle out (after hot starts) and those that continue their strong play?

 

Pitching and defense.

 

TIFWIW Detroit's currently #1 in pitching and #2 in defensive efficiency rating.

Edited May 19, 2006 by JackTalkThai

[ZoomSlowik]

Actually there is some statistical logic that disagrees with you to an extent. It was reported on a broadcast recently that of the teams in the history of baseball that began the season with a 27-13 (or better) record, I believe it was 95% of them finished the season with a .555 or better winning percentage which translates to 90+ wins. I know it has only happened four times with the Tigers organization and all four times they finished the season with 95+ wins, with two of the seasons ending with a World Championship (1968 and 1984).

 

That being said and returning to your second point...what are the constants that tend to separate the teams that fizzle out (after hot starts) and those that continue their strong play?

 

Pitching and defense.

 

TIFWIW Detroit's currently #1 in pitching and #2 in defensive efficiency rating.

 

Their record is really inconsequential, and that seems like a rather arbitrary record to pick as a dividing point. More often than not, good teams are going to start out with that kind of record. Obviously not all of them are, since some have fallen short. I'd be curious to see what the record for all of those teams were the previous year. I doubt that too many of them were in 4th place the previous year. I also doubt that too many of those teams had another very strong club that was right behind them despite their hot start.

 

Well, the Orioles and Dodgers got some decent pitching (at least from some of their guys) on their start as well, and that didn't end too well. The Royals got off to a pretty decent start on the mound too. It's all about sustaining their current performance, and many people have stated why their pitching won't hold up. They still have to win 63 games to reach 90, which would be a .516 pace the rest of the year. Obviously, a lot of us have doubts that it will happen. Also, as I stated, they'll probably need more like 95 wins given the strength of the Sox, which is a .557 pace.

Edited May 19, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[JackTalkThai]

Their record is really inconsequential, and that seems like a rather arbitrary record to pick as a dividing point.

 

I wouldn't exactly call the quarter point of the season "arbitrary".

 

They still have to win 63 games to reach 90, which would be a .516 pace the rest of the year. Obviously, a lot of have doubts that it will happen. Also, as I stated, they'll probably need more like 95 wins given the strength of the Sox, which is a .557 pace.

 

Detroit is not going to finish ahead of the

Edited May 19, 2006 by JackTalkThai

[NYSox35]

I wouldn't exactly call the quarter point of the season "arbitrary".

Detroit is not going to finish ahead of the

 

 

Just had to say, great username

[ZoomSlowik]

I wouldn't exactly call the quarter point of the season "arbitrary".

Detroit is not going to finish ahead of the

 

Technically, it's not exactly a quarter of the season. Besides that, I was referring more to the record as opposed to the number of games played. 27 is a weird number, both in terms of total and percentage. A baseline of 25 or 24 (.600 percentage) would make more sense, and would include a few more teams.

 

Well, at least we agree on the second part.

Edited May 19, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[JackTalkThai]

Technically, it's not exactly a quarter of the season. Besides that, I was referring more to the record as opposed to the number of games played. 27 is a weird number, both in terms of total and percentage. A baseline of 25 or 24 (.600 percentage) would make more sense, and would include a few more teams.

 

Well, at least we agree on the second part.

 

Well if you want to get techincal, there really isn't a true "quarter point" of the season as it is somewhere between the 40th and 41st games (maybe in the middle of the 5th inning of the 41st game) but that seems silly so I digress...yeah 27 is kind of an odd number (and a strange one as well) but I believe the comment was made during a Detroit broadcast as they were about to win their 27th game at the "quarter point" of the season, hence the "arbitrary" usage of a 27-13 record when calculating the before mentioned historical percentages.

 

And I agree with you that it would make sense that the worse the record you use, the more teams that would be included...but I don't think that "inclusiveness" and statistical accuracies of large numbers were the broadcaster's intent when making the statement. I think his point was simply, "A 27-13 or better record doesn't happen all that frequently and when it does, the team generally ends up having a pretty good season".

 

 

Just had to say, great username

 

Thanks....or should I say, "khawp khun".

Edited May 19, 2006 by JackTalkThai