North Korea threatens Missile Tests

[Gregory Pratt]

Kim Jung Il is threatening to test-launch a missile that may or may not be capable of reaching the United States. In response, some people are worrying, Japan is considering a re-armament, and South Koreans are probably a little tense.

 

The New York Times has a piece here: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/20/opinion/...r=1&oref=slogin

but my take is different than most people's, I suspect.

 

Let me state, momentarily, that I love Korea — both Koreas. Their history is fascinating, and I think their situation to be the most complex, worst problem in the world today. A people split by foreign powers who took different paths but ultimately need to be reunited. When the day comes that I travel the world, I want to go to Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey) and then the Orient, particularly the Koreas. Now that my love for the East is stated, let me say that I’ve been following the Korean crisis for years, and that North Korea’s recent threats to launch a missile test don’t quite bother me.

 

To be sure, it’s creepy. Kim Jung Il is the world’s biggest creep this side of John Bolton, and so it’s natural to expect this sort of behavior from him. Unless we intend to give him a lot of diplomatic assurances, money and food — or if we take the hardest road and invade — there’s little leverage that we have. Kim Jung Il is unlikely to be anything more than the Madonna of international politics — an attention whore, and not much else. If he does test his missile, I’m tempted to discount its significance. We’ve known that he can build missiles and shoot them into the Sea of Japan since 1998. What, exactly, changes? Just because he kisses Britney Spears twice doesn’t mean he’s not the same old attention whore from the late 1990s.

 

Ultimately, the situation in Korea is one that will have to be resolved by politicians being statesmen. Provided that, if (and likely when) the Koreans test a missile again, the proper response is verbal condemnation, and that’s about it. There’s no reason for Japan to begin re-arming, no cause for American threats, no need to worry in Seoul. Kim Jung Il is creepy, not crazy. As long as the West and its Eastern Allies keep a cool head when the missile launches, everything should work out. There’s no reason to go on a warpath unless Jung assaults Korea or Japan. A test meant to show the world that he’s not a joke is something to ignore, not a reason to get your war on, and everyone should stay calm and any storm will pass.

[Rex Kickass]

This is a situation that I feel tense about, not for what North Korea is doing but rather for the response that we may do. I feel like this may be seen as a provocation that it really isn't.

[Gregory Pratt]

This is a situation that I feel tense about, not for what North Korea is doing but rather for the response that we may do. I feel like this may be seen as a provocation that it really isn't.

 

I think it's clearly an attempt to provoke Japan and ourselves, and perhaps to scare the South Koreans.

I don't think even George Bush is ridiculous enough to go crazy over a missile test.

[Rex Kickass]

Not a provocation as much as a sign to the United States that it can strike back to the west coast if needed in the event of an invasion. I'm of the school that North Korea chose to go nuclear because it does so purely for defensive means. I don't think that the madman of North Korea is nearly as crazy as we think, and is really just constantly working to consolidate what he has and keep power, not expand it. The truth is, and I'm sure he's well aware of it, that his country is surrounded by so many others that are so much more wealthy than North Korea and used to its wealth, that any power grab would most likely be short lived even if it was left alone by outside powers.

[Gregory Pratt]

Not a provocation as much as a sign to the United States that it can strike back to the west coast if needed in the event of an invasion. I'm of the school that North Korea chose to go nuclear because it does so purely for defensive means. I don't think that the madman of North Korea is nearly as crazy as we think, and is really just constantly working to consolidate what he has and keep power, not expand it. The truth is, and I'm sure he's well aware of it, that his country is surrounded by so many others that are so much more wealthy than North Korea and used to its wealth, that any power grab would most likely be short lived even if it was left alone by outside powers.

 

I agree with that, but I as under the impresion that this school of thought -- that Jung is defensive minded -- was the conventional wisdom. At least, that it's the convention wisdom coupled with the fact that he wants to be considered a real leader on teh global stage and not, you know, get mocked as much.

 

By the way, by "provokation" I mean I believe it's an attempt to show us that he CAN fight back, and to, thus, try to use it as leverage for some sort of aid from Korea and Japan and us.

[Rex Kickass]

I think he wants assurances of no invasion from American forces. Partially to help him quell dissension in his own ranks (and for stability's sake this is something that a world superpower should be willing to eat some crow for) and also to give him a sense of security. I think a sense of security for North Korea would be good for the state, because it would then force the government to improve its treatment of its own people in order to secure the regime from within.

[Balta1701]

I agree with that, but I as under the impresion that this school of thought -- that Jung is defensive minded -- was the conventional wisdom. At least, that it's the convention wisdom coupled with the fact that he wants to be considered a real leader on teh global stage and not, you know, get mocked as much.

 

By the way, by "provokation" I mean I believe it's an attempt to show us that he CAN fight back, and to, thus, try to use it as leverage for some sort of aid from Korea and Japan and us.

The only problem with thinking that Kim is defensive minded is Pakistan...meaning that the North Koreans and the Pakistanis reportedly worked together quite a bit on their nuclear programs, Pakistan helping korea with the bomb building and North Korea shipping missile technology back in return. So while Kim himself may be working solely towards protecting his own country, in the process of protecting his own country, he can very easily hurt the U.S.

[kapkomet]

So you have an intercontinental ballistic missle fueled and ready to launch for a test. And, we're just supposed to sit, watch it happen, smile and say "wooohoooo, you did it, now don't do it again, little boy...???"

 

I do agree that much of Kim Dong (make me) Ill's method is sabre rattling, however, I think it's a lot more problematic because he wouldn't be doing this without the (wink-wink nod nod) assurance from China that it's ok.

 

The wild card in all of this, is indeed, China.

[CanOfCorn]

Kim Jung Il is threatening to test-launch a missile that may or may not be capable of reaching the United States. In response, some people are worrying, Japan is considering a re-armament, and South Koreans are probably a little tense.

 

The New York Times has a piece here: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/20/opinion/...r=1&oref=slogin

but my take is different than most people's, I suspect.

 

Let me state, momentarily, that I love Korea — both Koreas. Their history is fascinating, and I think their situation to be the most complex, worst problem in the world today. A people split by foreign powers who took different paths but ultimately need to be reunited. When the day comes that I travel the world, I want to go to Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey) and then the Orient, particularly the Koreas. Now that my love for the East is stated, let me say that I’ve been following the Korean crisis for years, and that North Korea’s recent threats to launch a missile test don’t quite bother me.

 

To be sure, it’s creepy. Kim Jung Il is the world’s biggest creep this side of John Bolton, and so it’s natural to expect this sort of behavior from him. Unless we intend to give him a lot of diplomatic assurances, money and food — or if we take the hardest road and invade — there’s little leverage that we have. Kim Jung Il is unlikely to be anything more than the Madonna of international politics — an attention whore, and not much else. If he does test his missile, I’m tempted to discount its significance. We’ve known that he can build missiles and shoot them into the Sea of Japan since 1998. What, exactly, changes? Just because he kisses Britney Spears twice doesn’t mean he’s not the same old attention whore from the late 1990s.

 

Ultimately, the situation in Korea is one that will have to be resolved by politicians being statesmen. Provided that, if (and likely when) the Koreans test a missile again, the proper response is verbal condemnation, and that’s about it. There’s no reason for Japan to begin re-arming, no cause for American threats, no need to worry in Seoul. Kim Jung Il is creepy, not crazy. As long as the West and its Eastern Allies keep a cool head when the missile launches, everything should work out. There’s no reason to go on a warpath unless Jung assaults Korea or Japan. A test meant to show the world that he’s not a joke is something to ignore, not a reason to get your war on, and everyone should stay calm and any storm will pass.

 

 

It was...inewitable.

[NorthSideSox72]

So you have an intercontinental ballistic missle fueled and ready to launch for a test. And, we're just supposed to sit, watch it happen, smile and say "wooohoooo, you did it, now don't do it again, little boy...???"

 

I do agree that much of Kim Dong (make me) Ill's method is sabre rattling, however, I think it's a lot more problematic because he wouldn't be doing this without the (wink-wink nod nod) assurance from China that it's ok.

 

The wild card in all of this, is indeed, China.

China is more than the wildcard - they are the master of their domain. The gravity of the Far East is centered very heavily in China, politically and otherwise. NK is also trying to get their attention - not just the US. I don't think China is saying "its OK", so much as its saying... "And?"

[samclemens]

we need to topple that bastard, if not just for the sake of the people living in that country.

[Gregory Pratt]

we need to topple that bastard, if not just for the sake of the people living in that country.

 

The most disturbing things I've ever read come from North Korea.

It's such a vile place.

 

(I'm not endorsing your invasion route, but I am concurring that it's an awful, awful place.)

[EvilMonkey]

... he wants to be considered a real leader on teh global stage and not, you know, get mocked as much.

Wow. If he doesn't want to get mocked as much, he should put his ego in a closet somewhere and keep it there for a while. Not every story has to be about him, pictures on every corner of him, and all sorts of other wacky stuff he does. Maybe feed your people once in a while instead of building more missles. Didn't he (allegedly) kidnap some South Korean movie director or something to start a film industry in NK?

[Gregory Pratt]

Wow. If he doesn't want to get mocked as much, he should put his ego in a closet somewhere and keep it there for a while. Not every story has to be about him, pictures on every corner of him, and all sorts of other wacky stuff he does. Maybe feed your people once in a while instead of building more missles. Didn't he (allegedly) kidnap some South Korean movie director or something to start a film industry in NK?

 

Actresses, too.

And the CIA/Dept. of State say he sits around masturbating to porn movies online all day.

 

He's a creep, for sure.

[Rex Kickass]

we need to topple that bastard, if not just for the sake of the people living in that country.

 

If we toppled governments for the sake of the people living in that country or this country, we'd have to topple half our allies.

 

The problem is that we let North Korea go nuclear, and its now in our own self-interest to see any power transition happen in a stable environment.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

If we toppled governments for the sake of the people living in that country or this country, we'd have to topple half our allies.

 

The problem is that we let North Korea go nuclear, and its now in our own self-interest to see any power transition happen in a stable environment.

 

 

And why did that happen?

 

 

Because the Clinton Administration pussyfooted around the issue of N. Korea and entered into a treaty with them in 1994 which they had absolutely no intention of honoring.

 

 

If we do the same thing with Iran then they will get nukes and there goes the neighborhood.

 

In other news.........

 

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/06/23/navy.ustest/index.html

 

 

Does recent events on the Korean Peninsula change anyones mind about missile defense who disagree with the concept?

 

It should.

[Rex Kickass]

The only thing that worries me is our reaction.

 

And just for clarification about the deal that we struck in 1994 to avoid a war. It was never actually funded and we never followed through on our end of the deal. Why? Because a Republican Congress refused to fund it. Still throughout the Clinton administration, North Korea did not actively begin an enrichment program or seriously advance any nuclear program. That didn't begin until 2001, when the Bush administration took office and started changing the language it used towards North Korea in more stern, isolationist language.

[southsider2k5]

The only thing that worries me is our reaction.

 

And just for clarification about the deal that we struck in 1994 to avoid a war. It was never actually funded and we never followed through on our end of the deal. Why? Because a Republican Congress refused to fund it. Still throughout the Clinton administration, North Korea did not actively begin an enrichment program or seriously advance any nuclear program. That didn't begin until 2001, when the Bush administration took office and started changing the language it used towards North Korea in more stern, isolationist language.

 

Um that last part is wrong.

 

They had a clandestine program all along, which is how they were able to have weapons grade plutonium so "quickly" after GWB took office. They were in violation of their agreement for years, if not back all of the way to the day they signed the treaty.

 

They were in AQ Kahns backpocket for years. They chose to go public after Bush took office in an effort to make sure they didn't get invaded by the US.

[NorthSideSox72]

The only thing that worries me is our reaction.

 

And just for clarification about the deal that we struck in 1994 to avoid a war. It was never actually funded and we never followed through on our end of the deal. Why? Because a Republican Congress refused to fund it. Still throughout the Clinton administration, North Korea did not actively begin an enrichment program or seriously advance any nuclear program. That didn't begin until 2001, when the Bush administration took office and started changing the language it used towards North Korea in more stern, isolationist language.

Clinton and to a lesser extent the late 90's Congress dropped the ball on NK and nukes. Now its being exacerbated by BushCo. But I place the bulk of the blame for not handling it differently squarely in Clinton's lap.