7/6 Games

[danman31]

Knights won 5-1. Fields 1-4, RBI, run, 2 K. Rogo 0-2, 2 BB, 2 K. Sweeney 1-3, 2 RBI, K. Randolph with a solid start. Logan, finding his groove in Charlotte lately, got the save with 3 K, 1 BB in the 9th. Box Score

 

Barons won 2-1. Getz 2-4, triple, BB. Collaro 3-4, double, run, RBI, K. Broadway 8 IP, 0 R, 7 K, 0 BB, 6 hits. Box Score

 

Winston-Salem lost 3-1. Whisler with another solid start: 7 IP, 2 R, 4 K, 3 BB, 8 hits. Box Score

 

Kanny lost 8-2. Ricks 0-1 but 3 walks I felt was worth mentioning. 4 errors for Kanny, giving up 8 runs on 5 hits. Interesting to note that Brian Bogusevic, who some people thought the Sox would take in last year's first round, started and only last 4 innings. The interesting part is that his ERA is above 9 in 6 starts in low A while Broadway has a sub 3 ERA in AA. Way to go Sox. Box Score

 

Great Falls rained out.

 

Bristol lost 6-5. Gartrell 2-5, 2 doubles, 2 runs, K. Espinal 3-4, 2 2B, RBI. O'Donnell 3-4, R, K. 3rd rounder Justin Edwards struggled again. Box Score

[Heads22]

Lance, you delightful bastard. Keep it up with periphs like that and people will think you're a prospect and whatnot.

[Capn12]

Danman, quick question...I'll admit I don't keep up with the minors even remotely as close as I used to. Has Broadway been as good as his numbers portray? Whats the long term forecast for him seem like to you, or anyone else that reads these threads.

[CWSGuy406]

Danman, quick question...I'll admit I don't keep up with the minors even remotely as close as I used to. Has Broadway been as good as his numbers portray? Whats the long term forecast for him seem like to you, or anyone else that reads these threads.

 

I feel semi-qualified to answer this question (although the more opinions you get, the better answer you'll obviously get), so I'll give it a shot.

 

Broadway this year -- Really, I don't think anyone can complain about the year Broadway has had this year. He isn't having a 'top-pitching prospect' type year, but then again, I don't think anybody here or anybody in the Sox organization expected that when he was drafted. His stuff, particularly his curveball, is/was good, but it wasn't what you'd qualify as 'nasty' or 'wicked' (you know what I'm saying?).

 

Without making this too long, here are Broadway's problems. First, his K/9 has dropped dramatically this year. With his recent start, he's striking out about six batters per nine IP -- that number is a bit too low. His WHIP certainly isn't dominating by any stretch, either. And, while his 2.92 ERA is good, he is pitching in a real good pitchers' park.

 

That being said, he's got his K/BB ratio up to about 3/1. He's also only given up six homers, though (again), part of that is due to the park.

 

After typing all of this, I realized that you didn't ask for any real analysis. You want a black-and-white forecast or projection. My best guess would be a right-handed Ted Lilly, or Jon Garland pre-2005. I expect Broadway to be a guy who will give you 200 innings a year of an ERA fluctuating between 4.25-5.00 (depending on league, stadium, etc etc). Basically, I expect a solid back-of-the-rotation type starter, but not a guy you want leading your staff.

 

I also don't think he'll get a chance to pitch for the Sox. At this point in time, the only guys the Sox will be able to stick in their rotation from their farm system (for good, I mean -- not just a spot start now and then) will be guys who absolutely tear through the minor leagues ala McCarthy, or guys with solid arms like Lumsden could potentially have.

[danman31]

Danman, quick question...I'll admit I don't keep up with the minors even remotely as close as I used to. Has Broadway been as good as his numbers portray? Whats the long term forecast for him seem like to you, or anyone else that reads these threads.

When the Sox first drafted him I wasn't sure what to expect, but he's been quite impressive. He started the year on fire. After a start on May 13 he had his ERA at 1.42 and before today's start it was at 3.15. Basically he has gone through a bit of a rough patch, but pitched well today and his numbers on the whole remain very good. Just now I'm looking at his splits and it's always interesting looking at splits for Charlotte and Birmingham. The home/road numbers really do change quite drastically. Birmingham inflates averages and deflates power. I don't have the exact number but opponents are hitting almost/about .270 against Lance this year (as of June 26). His ERA has risen since then so the numbers are probably about the same/higher. That's pretty disturbing but it breaks down .293 at home and .247 on the road. That's an amazing difference. Yet, power numbers are sapped at home as opposed to the road resulting in a far lower slugging and OPS. What I'm trying to say is, it's kind of difficult to read pitchers in Birmingham. His walk numbers are good. His WHIP is 1.29 which is a bit high, but again the big park may be moving that up just enough that it could be around 1.20 which would be very acceptable. The thing that I like about Broadway, and the thing I'm beginning to notice about college pitchers in general, is that he goes deep into every game that he is pitching well in. He seems to be a solid pitcher who can go deep and won't walk anybody. I got very stat heavy in this reply, I'm usually not a big stat guy, but I like Broadway more than any of our other pitching prospects. That says a lot considering I wasn't very thrilled with the pick at first. I have similar, but more negative feelings about the McColluch pick so we'll see. Broadway seems a lot like Buehrle. I know that seems cliche because the organizational approach to pitching prospects are all guys you could compare to Buehrle. However, I think it holds most true with Broadway. He rarely walks guys, goes deep, will give up hits, but will also occassionally get shelled because he is always in and around the zone.

[Capn12]

Very solid and thorough, thanks guys!!