Middle East conflict

[NorthSideSox72]

But here's one counterpoint...a lot of the targets Israel has hit are not genuine Hezbollah or military targets. They've hit bridges around Beirut. They've hit the Beirut airport. They've hit factories in the northern part of lebanon, in areas outside of Hezbollah control. They've reportedly killed something like 20 Lebanese soldiers, but killed something like 150 Lebanese civilians, which is an abjectly bad ratio with the technology available to the Israelis. Yes, they have gone after legit Hezbolla targets, like their leadership compounds, or TV stations, but they're also going after targets which have no relationship to Hezbollah, but are key parts of Lebanese infrastructure.

Why, would you guess, that is? Because they are afraid of the movement of certain individuals?

[Balta1701]

Why, would you guess, that is? Because they are afraid of the movement of certain individuals?

That might explain some of the road hits, but it doesn't explain things like targeting factories, targeting coastal areas, etc. This fits the pattern of softening up the whole of Lebanon either to punish the whole country or to prepare it for an invasion.

[EvilMonkey]

I guess to have avoided this whole situation, we should have just elected Democrats! According to Howard Dean, they have magic powers!

In an apparent reference to Israeli military action deep inside Lebanon, Dean said:

 

“If you think what's going on in the Middle East today would be going on if the Democrats were in control, it wouldn't, because we would have worked day after day after day to make sure we didn't get where we are today. We would have had the moral authority that Bill Clinton had when he brought together the Northern Irish and the IRA, when he brought together the Israelis and the Palestinians.”

 

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politic...9-1m16dean.html

Later, Dean also noted that if Democrats were in power, the threat from terrorism would be over, gas would cost 12 cents a gallon, and he–personally–would have cured cancer. But I guess they’re all lost opportunities now.

[Rex Kickass]

It should be noted that the previous administration had a special envoy whose job it was to put out any fires in the region as soon as they flare up. It did work with various degrees of success. The administration previous to that was famous for its shuttle diplomacy with James Baker - who probably spent more time visiting with foreign leaders than staying in D.C.

 

Condi Rice hasn't left to go anywhere yet.

 

If Democrats had been elected, this very well may have happened - but the US would have been much more active in trying to prevent escalations of warfare, and protecting civilian lives.

[Jenksismyhero]

What exactly is the problem with letting these people fight it out amongst themselves? I'm failing to see why the US is upset (or should be) with what Israel is doing. They're waging war against a known terrorist organization and they're doing it in response to an offensive action. No one in the world thinks that Israel is wrong for starting this "war." The situation is even more justified because of the history that's behind it all.

 

I think we should all sit back and hope that: 1) innocent citizen casualities are kept to a minimum and 2) that Israel wipes the floor with Hezbollah and returns some rationality to the region (not likely I know).

[EvilMonkey]

It should be noted that the previous administration had a special envoy whose job it was to put out any fires in the region as soon as they flare up. It did work with various degrees of success. The administration previous to that was famous for its shuttle diplomacy with James Baker - who probably spent more time visiting with foreign leaders than staying in D.C.

 

Condi Rice hasn't left to go anywhere yet.

 

If Democrats had been elected, this very well may have happened - but the US would have been much more active in trying to prevent escalations of warfare, and protecting civilian lives.

You missed the best part, where he said Bill Clinton had 'moral authority'. That is just f'ing hilarious!

[StrangeSox]

What exactly is the problem with letting these people fight it out amongst themselves? I'm failing to see why the US is upset (or should be) with what Israel is doing. They're waging war against a known terrorist organization and they're doing it in response to an offensive action. No one in the world thinks that Israel is wrong for starting this "war." The situation is even more justified because of the history that's behind it all.

 

I think we should all sit back and hope that: 1) innocent citizen casualities are kept to a minimum and 2) that Israel wipes the floor with Hezbollah and returns some rationality to the region (not likely I know).

 

 

Instability in the most volatile region in the world, which also happens to be home to some of the largest oil reserves, is one reason. I really don't want to just let the mideast "duke it out" and see oil at $200/barrel.

[Rex Kickass]

You missed the best part, where he said Bill Clinton had 'moral authority'. That is just f'ing hilarious!

 

No more so than implying our current administration does.

 

And on this issue, Bill Clinton did have "moral authority." His administration actively sought peace in the region and could legitimately be seen as an honest broker for progress in the region.

 

This implication of moral authority has little to do with stained dresses or unorthodox cigar consumption.

[Soxy]

Interesting article

 

I thought this was a pretty interesting, rational, and non-alarmist article. I'm not sure if it'll be borne out like he predicts, but his predictions sound better than WWIII

 

Op-Ed Contributor

A Conflict That Will Stay Close to Home

 

Article Tools Sponsored By

By EDWARD M. LUTTWAK

Published: July 18, 2006

 

IT is obvious by now that Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah and Hamas is part of a larger conflict largely paid for and directed by Iran and Syria. To divert attention from its nuclear ambitions, Iran undoubtedly sanctioned Hezbollah’s adventurism into Israel last week. Syria harbors Khaled Meshal, the political leader of Hamas, and fully supports its actions.

 

So, could the fighting widen across the region? It is possible, of course, but not likely.

 

First, Hamas is very isolated, with no local allies other than Syria. As the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, which was founded in Egypt and is dedicated to overthrowing the government of Hosni Mubarak, Hamas can hardly expect any help from Egypt, by far Israel’s most powerful neighbor.

 

Likewise, the Muslim Brotherhood of Jordan is the main political opposition to the royal family. Since April, when the Jordanian government intercepted weapons coming from Syria and intended for Hamas, it has barred Hamas officials from its territory.

 

As for Hezbollah, the Israeli bombing of Lebanon is arousing some Arab solidarity in the region. But all know that the Israelis are acting only incidentally against Lebanon and that their target is Hezbollah, which deliberately started the fighting by crossing into Israel. Much more important, other Arabs view Hezbollah as the paid agent of its Shiite brethren, the leaders of non-Arab Iran. That makes it much easier for Sunni Arab states like Egypt and Jordan to stay on the sidelines.

 

Likewise, Saudi Arabia, another Sunni-ruled country, quickly came out against Hezbollah and Iran through its official news agency, which said, “A distinction must be made between legitimate resistance and uncalculated adventures undertaken by elements inside Lebanon and those behind them.”

 

In the Arab world, only Syrian President Bashar al-Assad supports both Hamas and Hezbollah. Would he help both by, say, opening a new front on the Golan Heights? Syria has large artillery forces that could quickly launch a tremendous barrage; it has missiles than can reach deep into Israel, and its armored forces and commando units could go into action almost immediately.

 

On the other hand, Syria has never violated the 1974 cease-fire on the Golan Heights, not even in 1982 when the Israelis destroyed Syrian forces in Lebanon. The Syrians know that even if they struck first, the Israelis would retaliate very quickly by bombing Syrian air bases and by destroying electrical power stations, oil refineries, major bridges and the like. And the Syrian Army would undoubtedly suffer heavy losses once the Israelis mobilized their reserve divisions, in less than 48 hours.

 

Most important, Mr. Assad must be concerned that his regime, narrowly based on the loyalty of the small Alawite religious minority to which he belongs, would be overthrown if the country suffered a major military defeat.

 

Which brings us back to Iran. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been threatening Israel with destruction daily and keeps denying the Holocaust in a manner that reveals his own genocidal fantasies. But as of now, Iran has no military capacity against Israel other than a few unreliable ballistic missiles imported from North Korea whose warheads could fall just about anywhere. Even if by some miracle they were to hit a city or town in Israel, their conventional explosives would not inflict much damage anyway.

 

On the other hand, an Iranian missile attack would give Israel the opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear installations without provoking global outrage. It would be a very serious act of war, but it would not stir the Arab states to aid Iran’s mullahs: they, too, fear a nuclear Iran.

 

Much is at stake in the current crisis: Israel’s security; Lebanon’s viability as a nation; the future roles of Hamas and Hezbollah; America’s ability to function as an effective power in the Middle East; and more still. There are dangers on every side. But, fortunately, the outbreak of a regional war is not one of them.

 

Edward N. Luttwak, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is the author of “Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace.’’

[soxman352000]

Sorry to stray from the topic, but does anyone else get the feeling that this could possibly be the start of a major war. I'm afraid of even the idea of something like war, however I can't seem to shake it from my mind. I hope this can be solved peacefully, but I really starting to have my doubts.

[Rex Kickass]

This won't spread much past Damascus if it even gets that far. Although the fighting in Lebanon intensifies, the situation is stabilizing itself. Syria is making it clear that it wants no part in this mess - and without fighting spreading to Syria, Iran won't jump in.

 

The stunning part about this is, how even in the region, states around the world seem to be recoiling in horror at both sides. Hezbollah for trying to provoke a wider war, and Israel for destroying a nascent democracy.

[soxman352000]

This won't spread much past Damascus if it even gets that far. Although the fighting in Lebanon intensifies, the situation is stabilizing itself. Syria is making it clear that it wants no part in this mess - and without fighting spreading to Syria, Iran won't jump in.

 

The stunning part about this is, how even in the region, states around the world seem to be recoiling in horror at both sides. Hezbollah for trying to provoke a wider war, and Israel for destroying a nascent democracy.

I hope your right Rex

[Rex Kickass]

It's one of the things where I've been shocked - and pleasantly - at the reaction of most nations in the region regarding the situation. Abject horror at both sides' actions and reactions.

 

That, in and of itself, is progress in the Middle East. Be it the cause of reaction to an ascending Iran, or an Israel pulling out of Gaza, progress is still progress

[Balta1701]

It's one of the things where I've been shocked - and pleasantly - at the reaction of most nations in the region regarding the situation. Abject horror at both sides' actions and reactions.

 

That, in and of itself, is progress in the Middle East. Be it the cause of reaction to an ascending Iran, or an Israel pulling out of Gaza, progress is still progress

Well, it's also worth noting I think that one of the things that has sparked so much abject horror is that in the 6 years since Israel left Lebanon, Hezbollah has become MUCH stronger. Gone from rockets that can barely cross the border to rockets that can hit Haifa, developed and planned a coordinated assault designed to trap Israeli soldiers, and so forth. In fact, this is one of the reasons Israel really can't consider pulling back; Hezbollah has gotten too strong, and there's some measure of horror in that. It's probably one of the things that has made the governments of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and a few other countries speak out against Hezbollah.

[Balta1701]

Ahem...um...*Clears throat, clears throat again, downs 3 shots of tequila*...ahem, um...Here we go...

 

“Hezbollian attacks.”

.

[Rex Kickass]

The fact that the administration has decided to delay a trip for Condi to go to the region is not encouraging.

[NorthSideSox72]

The fact that the administration has decided to delay a trip for Condi to go to the region is not encouraging.

I didn't see that. Did they give a reason for the delay?

 

Did Condi need an extra-long massage or something?

[Rex Kickass]

From "Slate"

 

Secretary of State Rice is expected to head to the Mideast within the next week. But instead of pushing for a ceasefire, says the Journal, "her mission will be to build support for the effective crippling of Hezbollah."

[NorthSideSox72]

I felt I needed to add this update.

 

What is new in it is an apparent shift in Israeli words here. Just two days ago, Israeli civilian and military spokespeople were avoiding the invasion idea entirely, and in fact emphasizing that it wasn't happening. Now, apparently, the invasion option is on the publicly-stated table...

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060720/ap_on_...anon_israel_259

 

Just when it seemed things might stay contained... I think this might change the playing field a bit.

[Rex Kickass]

Frankly, I think its what Syria and Iran exactly want. If Israel launches a full scale invasion of Lebanon, then it kinda makes Damascus safe. I highly doubt any other country is going to come to the aid of Lebanon.

 

Although I will say that an Israeli invasion of Lebanon suddenly makes Hezbollah go from terrorists to freedom fighters again. The Israelis better be damned sure what they're doing here, or Hezbollah will stay a thorn in their side for years to come.

[NorthSideSox72]

Frankly, I think its what Syria and Iran exactly want. If Israel launches a full scale invasion of Lebanon, then it kinda makes Damascus safe. I highly doubt any other country is going to come to the aid of Lebanon.

 

Although I will say that an Israeli invasion of Lebanon suddenly makes Hezbollah go from terrorists to freedom fighters again. The Israelis better be damned sure what they're doing here, or Hezbollah will stay a thorn in their side for years to come.

Well, Hezbollah will be a thorn in their side for years to come in any case.

 

But I do think you are getting at a major issue in this conflict - Israel continues to lose its moral high ground. If they invade Lebanon, seize new territory, and continue the bombardment of non-military targets (which some of it has been), soon they will be left with only the U.S. backing them. And even that may not last forever.

 

All that said though, I don't know that Israel will go that far. I would think they'd be smarter than that. But in that crazy part of the world, one never knows.

[Balta1701]

I've sort of been expecting this for a while. Seriously, what other option do the Israelis have? They've, through some combination of their own actions, international actions, and Hezbollah's actions, been painted completely into a corner.

 

They've launched massive airstrikes on Lebanon, but you have to be insane to expect massive airstrikes to be able to inflict more than pinpricks on a guerrilla militia like Hezbollah.

 

But, Hezbollah in this mess has proven to be a much stronger opponent than it seems anyone thought possible...actual planning military operations, defending targets, and firing rockets much farther into Israel than anyone thought they could.

 

In other words, if Israel were to end this without doing something to smash Hezbollah completely, it would be viewed throughout the Arab world as a major Hezbollah victory...the Israelis saw what they were up against and backed down. No matter whether that was actually what happened, thats how it would play.

 

On the other hand, if Israel were to try to continue just air strikes, they'd level Lebanon, build even more anger amongst everyone else in the Middle East, hurt the economies of the West (including their main protector), and maybe even wind up causing the overthrow of a few of the less hostile regimes, and they'd do all of that while barely being able to scratch Hezbollah. Nasrallah has already been turned into a hero by virtue of Hezbollah's successes, a long resistance campaign, combined with more successful strikes on Israel, would only intensify that.

 

About the only option left on the table for Israel is ground troops. While they couldn't beat Hezbollah completely, even 20 years of occupation couldn't do that, they could do some significant damage to the group, which would take them years to recover from.

[Rex Kickass]

Now Lebanon, the state sorta caught in the middle is getting ready to take sides. Here's a hint, it won't be with the country bombing Beirut.

[WCSox]

But I do think you are getting at a major issue in this conflict - Israel continues to lose its moral high ground. If they invade Lebanon, seize new territory, and continue the bombardment of non-military targets (which some of it has been), soon they will be left with only the U.S. backing them. And even that may not last forever.

 

Given that Lebanon has basically let Hezbollah take over the southern part of their country, import arms from Syria, and launch attacks on Israel, I don't see how Israel is losing the moral high ground. Lebanon is enabling Hezbollah.

 

What Israel needs to do is to send ground troops into southern Lebanon, eliminate as much of Hezbollah's weapons/soldiers as possible, and (most importantly) work with the Lebanese army to keep them out. It's imperative that Lebanon work with Israel to flush out Hezbollah.

[Balta1701]

What Israel needs to do is to send ground troops into southern Lebanon, eliminate as much of Hezbollah's weapons/soldiers as possible, and (most importantly) work with the Lebanese army to keep them out. It's imperative that Lebanon work with Israel to flush out Hezbollah.

Given that the Israeli bombings have targeted the Lebanese army just as much as they've targeted Hezbollah, this is simply not going to happen. Not a chance in Hell. You want someone other than the Israelis to work to dismantle Hezbollah, your ONLY option is going to be some sort of international force. There's just no one else.

 

Remember this simple fact; bombing people does not make them like you. Israeli jets bombing the Hell out of Lebanon don't make the Lebanese army go "Yeah, let's go help those guys out".