Middle East conflict

[WCSox]

After the Israelis accidentally hit a U.N. bunker in Lebanon, Kofi Annan throws fuel on the fire by calling the attack "deliberate." Way to go, Kofi! That's the type of leadership that we need from the U.N.

 

Link

[Balta1701]

After the Israelis accidentally hit a U.N. bunker in Lebanon, Kofi Annan throws fuel on the fire by calling the attack "deliberate." Way to go, Kofi! That's the type of leadership that we need from the U.N.

 

Link

Not saying he's right, but it's worth asking; how exactly do you know it was an accident?

[WCSox]

Not saying he's right, but it's worth asking; how exactly do you know it was an accident?

 

Well, I obviously don't know that for a fact, but given that the Israelis have no real motive to bomb U.N. PEACEKEEPERS, I think that's the initial assumption that people should make. But apparently that doesn't fit with Kofi's anti-Israli agenda.

 

Kofi needs to go. He has no leadership skills, his organization is embarrassingly corrupt, and his recent comments are just downright unprofessional.

[kapkomet]

Not saying he's right, but it's worth asking; how exactly do you know it was an accident?

Why would they bomb UN targets on purpose? Could it be that the Hezzies are running around under the UN moniker? Hmmm.

[southsider2k5]

Why would they bomb UN targets on purpose? Could it be that the Hezzies are running around under the UN moniker? Hmmm.

 

They have already been accused of using their own people as human shields, I think it would actually be a step down in their view to use forgeiners instead. Its plausible, but I would like to see some proof before I think it.

 

To me this was an accident until someone comes up with some proof of this as well.

[NorthSideSox72]

Annan is terrible. When is his term up? Does he even have a set term? I knew this stuff at one point but have forgotten and am too lazy at the moment to look for it.

[Balta1701]

Why would they bomb UN targets on purpose? Could it be that the Hezzies are running around under the UN moniker? Hmmm.

If you really wanted to, I'm sure we could come up with a dozen reasons why Israel might have an urge to hit a UN station on purpose. Convince the U.N. that the zone isn't safe and their people should pull out (a-la Iraq) so that Israel has more of a free hand, delay/hurt negotiations by hardening the opinions of both sides, cut off foreign aid supply conduits to those still trapped in the south, etc.

 

Annan is terrible. When is his term up? Does he even have a set term? I knew this stuff at one point but have forgotten and am too lazy at the moment to look for it.

There will be a new U.N. chief early next year. It's almost certain, IMO, to be someone the U.S. likes even less than Annan. Bolton has already said he's not going to do any sort of campaigning, because having him support any candidate would be the kiss of death for that candidate.

[mr_genius]

Annan is terrible. When is his term up?

 

i'm sure the UN will rise to the occasion and replace him with someone just as bad.

[WCSox]

If you really wanted to, I'm sure we could come up with a dozen reasons why Israel might have an urge to hit a UN station on purpose. Convince the U.N. that the zone isn't safe and their people should pull out (a-la Iraq) so that Israel has more of a free hand, delay/hurt negotiations by hardening the opinions of both sides, cut off foreign aid supply conduits to those still trapped in the south, etc.

 

It would be completely counter-productive for Israel to hit a U.N. station occupied by peacekeeping troops. They're not going to murder U.N. troops for the reasons that you outlined.

[Balta1701]

At least 8 Israeli soldiers died fighting in a Hezbollah stronghold today. Arab TV was saying 14.

[Balta1701]

The Israeli attack on the U.N. outpost lasted for about 6 hours, from the time the first shells fell. The moment the shells started falling, the U.N. people got on the phones and started begging the Israelis to stop. Calls went out to the Israeli mission at the U.N., and from U.N. Generals on the ground directly to the IDF begging the Israelis to stop shooting. The direct hits that killed the U.N. people happened after all of these pleas were ignored.

 

The Israelis continued firing even after more U.N. forces went in to retrieve the bodies.

 

The BBC has even more details. The UN forces in South Lebanon contacted the IDF at least 10 times once the shelling started, pleading with the Israelis to stop. I can't tell if they mean to include it in those 10 contacts or not, but a Senior Irish Soldier in the area also contacted the IDF 6 times. Each time, the IDF assured the U.N. they would stop attacking the site. After 6 hours of shelling, the site was hit directly with a precision guided missile.

Edited July 27, 2006 by Balta1701

[WCSox]

It was reported on Fox News this morning that Hezbollah had been firing at Israelis from around the U.N. outpost, essentially using the U.N. troops as "human shields."

Edited July 27, 2006 by WCSox

[Balta1701]

It was reported on Fox News this morning that Hamas had been firing at Israelis from around the U.N. outpost, essentially using the U.N. troops as "human shields."

Considering that Hamas has no presence inside Lebanon, they're the ones in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, somehow I doubt their sourcing.

 

Hezbollah, of course, may very well have been doing just that.

 

Annan Wednesday appeared to back away from his earlier charge, saying he had accepted the explanation of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

 

"The prime minister ... definitely believes it was a mistake," Annan said in Rome where he was attending a high-level crisis meeting on Lebanon.

 

"He has undertaken to investigate and I have suggested we do a joint investigation.

 

"And he has expressed his deep sorrow at what happened, and I accept that."

[WCSox]

Considering that Hamas has no presence inside Lebanon, they're the ones in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, somehow I doubt their sourcing.

 

Hezbollah, of course, may very well have been doing just that.

 

Yes, that's what I meant. Multi-tasking at work leads to an occasional inaccuracy in my posts.

 

I really can't imagine that the Israelis would have anything to gain by blowing up U.N. peacekeepers. The negative P.R. would outweigh any tangible benefit. I imagine that either Hezbollah forces were purposely set up in the area or the calls to the ground troops to cease fire weren't relayed for some reason.

[Balta1701]

[southsider2k5]

Maybe its a tacky example, but this almost reminds me of the fight scene during the big party in Dazed and Confused... The not-so-tough nerdy guy is mad about being verbally abused by one of the tough drunk guys, so he hatches this scheme to where he will take the first punch, and stall thinking that everyone else will jump in and break up the fight. Instead everyone wants to watch and the guy gets the crap beat out of him for a while, before the fight finally gets broke up.

 

I don't know how Hezbollah thought they could run raids into Israel and kidnap their soldiers and not expect the nation that has a sixty year history of kicking the crap out of anyone who dares mess with them, and get off scott-free. I really believe they thought they were going to be able to draw Syria and Iran into a broader war, and now they have no idea what to do, and are just waiting for someone to break up the fight. Hezbollah really miscalculated things, because now they just gave Israel an open door to bomb their infrastruct back to the stoneage, and they are doing just that.

 

Is it right, I would say not to the extent that it happened so far, but was it expected? Hell yes. The whole middle east knows you don't mess with Israel without expecting a big reaction in return.

[Balta1701]

Do you really think Hezbollah is "getting the crap beat out of them" The Israeli progress has been ungodly slow, Hezbollah has emerged as a much stronger anti-Israeli force than they were before, they've taken some casualties but also inflicted some, and made their head look like a hero to the entire middle east. They've inflamed the entire area against Israel and the U.S., and they've proven to everyone that they're quite a bit stronger than just a few years ago.

 

Beyond that, they've made Israel's military might look less scary to everyone else, since Israel can bomb countries into the stone age but hasn't really hurt the group itself, Israel has nearly crushed the Lebanese government to the point that Hezbollah is basically the only force left to run that country, and they're about an inch away from having what remains of the Lebanese army openly joining with that group.

[NorthSideSox72]

Maybe its a tacky example, but this almost reminds me of the fight scene during the big party in Dazed and Confused... The not-so-tough nerdy guy is mad about being verbally abused by one of the tough drunk guys, so he hatches this scheme to where he will take the first punch, and stall thinking that everyone else will jump in and break up the fight. Instead everyone wants to watch and the guy gets the crap beat out of him for a while, before the fight finally gets broke up.

 

I don't know how Hezbollah thought they could run raids into Israel and kidnap their soldiers and not expect the nation that has a sixty year history of kicking the crap out of anyone who dares mess with them, and get off scott-free. I really believe they thought they were going to be able to draw Syria and Iran into a broader war, and now they have no idea what to do, and are just waiting for someone to break up the fight. Hezbollah really miscalculated things, because now they just gave Israel an open door to bomb their infrastruct back to the stoneage, and they are doing just that.

 

Is it right, I would say not to the extent that it happened so far, but was it expected? Hell yes. The whole middle east knows you don't mess with Israel without expecting a big reaction in return.

 

 

Do you really think Hezbollah is "getting the crap beat out of them" The Israeli progress has been ungodly slow, Hezbollah has emerged as a much stronger anti-Israeli force than they were before, they've taken some casualties but also inflicted some, and made their head look like a hero to the entire middle east. They've inflamed the entire area against Israel and the U.S., and they've proven to everyone that they're quite a bit stronger than just a few years ago.

 

Beyond that, they've made Israel's military might look less scary to everyone else, since Israel can bomb countries into the stone age but hasn't really hurt the group itself, Israel has nearly crushed the Lebanese government to the point that Hezbollah is basically the only force left to run that country, and they're about an inch away from having what remains of the Lebanese army openly joining with that group.

 

I'm gonna have to go with Balta on this one. I don't think Hezbollah's aim was to win a war in any conventional sense, or even to try to gain some sort of moral high ground by being beat up a bit (as I think the fight scene analogy was getting at). I think they intended to do EXACTLY what they did and what has happened - chaos, Israel looks awful both militarily and politically, Lebanese government is in disarray, and the rest of the Middle East is that much more angry with Israel.

 

As far as a broader war, I think this IS going to lead to that, but not right here and right now. All the major regional events of the last 5 years are leading the world into a major conflict there, in one form or another. This particular episode was just a small part of the chess game for Iran and the big kids on the block.

[WCSox]

I'm gonna have to go with Balta on this one. I don't think Hezbollah's aim was to win a war in any conventional sense, or even to try to gain some sort of moral high ground by being beat up a bit (as I think the fight scene analogy was getting at). I think they intended to do EXACTLY what they did and what has happened - chaos, Israel looks awful both militarily and politically, Lebanese government is in disarray, and the rest of the Middle East is that much more angry with Israel.

 

Agreed. And, as Balta's photo and the events surrounding the bombing of the U.N. post suggest, Hezbollah is more than happy to sacrifice the lives of innocent people a la "human shields" to win a propaganda war. They're doing a brilliant job of that, as even the U.N. is throwing them under the bus

 

As far as a broader war, I think this IS going to lead to that, but not right here and right now. All the major regional events of the last 5 years are leading the world into a major conflict there, in one form or another. This particular episode was just a small part of the chess game for Iran and the big kids on the block.

 

Unfortunately, I agree about this as well. And it's going to cost tens of thousands of innocent lives out there. While the Israelis have tried to only bomb only areas populated heavily by Hezbollah in Beirut, I don't foresee them holding back when they decide to bomb Tehran. They're going to cripple Iran to the point where it resembles Afghanistan. It's not going to be pretty.

[Balta1701]

Unfortunately, I agree about this as well. And it's going to cost tens of thousands of innocent lives out there. While the Israelis have tried to only bomb only areas populated heavily by Hezbollah in Beirut, I don't foresee them holding back when they decide to bomb Tehran. They're going to cripple Iran to the point where it resembles Afghanistan. It's not going to be pretty.

And the entire middle east will wind up in ruins afterwards. As will the economies of the entire world.

[WCSox]

And the entire middle east will wind up in ruins afterwards. As will the economies of the entire world.

 

The entire Middle East will be in ruins? I'm not so sure about that. Who is going to support Iran and go to war with Israel and America? The Saudis, who have already condemned Hezbollah and rely on American oil money? The moderate governments of Jordan, Qatar, and Turkey? The pro-American government in Iraq? The pro-American government in Afghanistan?

 

The Israelis will not bomb Iran's oil fields. And it won't take long for the drilling to start again under new management after the bombing ceases.

[Balta1701]

The entire Middle East will be in ruins? I'm not so sure about that. Who is going to support Iran and go to war with Israel and America? The Saudis, who have already condemned Hezbollah and rely on American oil money? The moderate governments of Jordan, Qatar, and Turkey? The pro-American government in Iraq? The pro-American government in Afghanistan?

 

The Israelis will not bomb Iran's oil fields. And it won't take long for the drilling to start again under new management after the bombing ceases.

First of all, yes, the government in Iraq will support Iran if it was attacked by Israel. The main parties of that government are hugely pro-Iran. Significant parties were housed by Iran, supplied by Iran, and trained by Iran during Saddam's Regime. An Israeli attack on Iran would throw Iraq into even more flames than what we've already seen.

 

Secondly, it's worth noting that the condemnation of Hezbollah upon which you're hanging so much has basically come and gone.

 

Distinctive changes in tone are audible throughout the Sunni world. This week, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt emphasized his attempts to arrange a cease-fire to protect all sects in Lebanon, while the Jordanian king announced that his country was dispatching medical teams “for the victims of Israeli aggression.” Both countries have peace treaties with Israel.

 

The Saudi royal court has issued a dire warning that its 2002 peace plan — offering Israel full recognition by all Arab states in exchange for returning to the borders that predated the 1967 Arab-Israeli war — could well perish.

 

“If the peace option is rejected due to the Israeli arrogance,” it said, “then only the war option remains, and no one knows the repercussions befalling the region, including wars and conflict that will spare no one, including those whose military power is now tempting them to play with fire.”

 

The Saudis were putting the West on notice that they would not exert pressure on anyone in the Arab world until Washington did something to halt the destruction of Lebanon, Saudi commentators said.

[samclemens]

First of all, yes, the government in Iraq will support Iran if it was attacked by Israel. The main parties of that government are hugely pro-Iran. Significant parties were housed by Iran, supplied by Iran, and trained by Iran during Saddam's Regime. An Israeli attack on Iran would throw Iraq into even more flames than what we've already seen.

 

Secondly, it's worth noting that the condemnation of Hezbollah upon which you're hanging so much has basically come and gone.

 

i think, here, that you are straght up wrong. iraq will support iran- with words at most. you honestly believe that the pro-american iraqi government is going to support iran militarily?? you know our gov. would never allow that. iraq needs us too much to do something stupid like that. not that iraq has a real military to support anyone with at this point.

 

i agree, with the above posts- turkey, saudi arabia, etc. are not going to join iran militarily. they can sit around and condemn zionism all they want, but to suggest they will do anything more than that when israel and iran war is rediculous.

 

so all iran basically has is syria. ive said this before- it will be interesting to see how many syrian and iranian pre-1990 soviet tanks it will take to take down a single abrams. my guess- at least 10.

 

as for the condemnation, who cares? certainly not israel. the UN is the most worthless org. in the history of mankind, let them condemn anyone and everyone, and watch it make absolutely no difference.

[WCSox]

First of all, yes, the government in Iraq will support Iran if it was attacked by Israel. The main parties of that government are hugely pro-Iran. Significant parties were housed by Iran, supplied by Iran, and trained by Iran during Saddam's Regime. An Israeli attack on Iran would throw Iraq into even more flames than what we've already seen.

 

Iraq will "support" Iran via the clerics deploying terrorists to Israel. If Iraq launches a full-scale military attack against Israel, America and its money pulls out, and their nation becomes engulfed in a full-fledged Sunni/Shiite civil war. Not gonna happen.

 

Secondly, it's worth noting that the condemnation of Hezbollah upon which you're hanging so much has basically come and gone.

 

Sorry, I refuse to sign up to read the NYT.

 

But if you want to think that the Saudis will fight American interests and lose the oil revenue supplied by us AND support Iran's quest to take over the Middle East (including the Saudi oil fields), go right ahead.

Edited July 29, 2006 by WCSox

[Balta1701]

Both of you are forgetting the key point...just because the government of those countries says one thing doesn't mean the people of the country won't say the exact opposite. If, for example, Israel and the U.S. really made all-out war against Iran, the Iraqi government we're holding up would probably protest but it couldn't declare war or anything like that, but the Shia population of that country would absolutely explode.

 

The same thing may very well happen in Saudi Arabia. It's the same thing that has driven the dramatic turnaround in the statements of the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia...regardless of whether Hezbollah is Sunni or Shia, they're fighting a country that is considered a bigger enemy, and the strong support that has built for Hezbollah across all of the Middle Eastern countries amongst the people has forced their governments into a much more hard line with regards to this current conflict.