I'm finally off of the Podsednik bandwagon (long)

[Greg Hibbard]

Literally the ONLY thing that Scott Podsednik arguably provides us with over any other major league replacement is steals and runs, and as it turns out, the value of those two numbers seems to be inflated.

 

His defense is atrocious. He is 18th out of 21 in Qualified Fielding Percentage for Left Fielders. He is a mediocre 10th out of 21 in Range Factor despite his tremendous footspeed, and 11th out of 21 in Zone Rating.

 

He is 8/9 in qualified AL leadoff hitters in OBP and OPS. He is 7/9 in RBIs. 8/9 in home runs. This means he doesn't walk enough and he doesn't have nearly enough pop. Pretty much all of his OPS is generated by his ability to stretch a double into a triple.

 

Now he IS third in runs, and he IS second in steals. However, the runs are more of a product of the success behind him than the runs he is generating with his legs this season. I'm going to argue in this thread that probably less than half of his steals have been truly meaningful in terms of determining the outcome of the game.

 

Additionally, a lot of his offensive numbers in terms of hits and RBIs are occuring in blowout games. In fact, six of the first seven games in which he had an RBI were lopsided victories for the White Sox: 10-4 Sox over Cle April 1st (1 RBI), 9-0 over KC April 17th (1 RBI), 7-1 over MIN April 21st (1 RBI), and 9-1 and 12-5 over LAA two consecutive days May 9th and 10th (1 RBI each). The lone game he contributed to that was close in that stretch was @ LAA, where he had two RBIS in a game where we still won by a larger margin than that (3). Additionally, 7 other RBIs out of his 32 total occurred in lopsided games in which the White Sox won, and a handful of other RBIs occurred in losses for the White Sox. Aside from the Grand Slam against Houston, less than 10 of Podsednik's RBIs this season have been at all meaningful in terms of determining the outcome in a White Sox victory over 6 total games. And all of those games he had 1 RBI.

 

Now, Podsednik's stolen base log for 2006:

 

1) April 16th vs. Toronto. 1 Steal. Podsednik steals second with 1 out in the bottom of the 2nd in after the Sox score 3 in the first against Toronto and have a 3-0 lead. He takes thrid on an Iguchi groundout, allowing Thome to swing away for a sac fly, which he ends up hitting out for a 2-run job. The Sox go up 5-0 and hang on 6-4 in a game that was closer than expected. Net Result: stolen base generated arguably 2 runs, the difference in this game.

 

2) April 18th vs. Kansas City. 2 Steals. Pods steals second in the 5th inning with the sox up 3-1, takes third on an errant throw and is stranded on third after an Iguchi K, a Thome walk and a PK strikeout. Pods steals second in the 7th inning with the Sox up 3-1, and scores an insurance run on a 2-out single by Thome. Net Result: stolen base generates 1 insurance run, but Kansas City had virtually nothing going against Jon Garland all game and was never really a threat.

 

3) April 25th at Seattle. 1 Steal. Pods is part of a double steal with Anderson as the lead runner in the third inning, and both end up scoring the first runs of an eventual 13-3 blowout which featured dominant pitching from Javier Vazquez. Net Result: Hard to argue that his steal as a trail runner in a blowout really contributed much to the success of the evening.

 

4) May 1st at Cleveland. 4 Steals Scott is the centerpiece of an 8-6 win by stealing 4 bases in 5 chances on Victor Martinez and scoring three runs. Net Result: Podsednik probably won us this game with his legs, but Vic Martinez is pretty easily to steal off of

 

5) May 9th at LAA. 1 Steal. Steals a base in a 9-1 whitewashing of a struggling Kevin Gregg. Yawn. Net Result: Nada.

 

6) May 14th at Min. 1 Steal. Steals a base and scores a couple of runs, also has a couple of RBIs and hits against Minnesota in a close game. Net Result: Podsednik was crucial to the Sox winning this game

 

7) May 15th at Min. 1 Steal. Pods' home run probably had more to do with the victory here than his stolen base. He stole second in the 4th but was stranded. Net Result: Nada.

 

8) May 16th at Tampa. 3 Steals. Steals 3 bases in a 10-7 loss. Net Result: Hard to argue that three stolen bases in a losing effort really provided much for the team.

 

9) May 19th vs Cubs. 1 Steal. Steals second base with the Sox up 6-1 in the 6th inning of the first game at the Cell. Net Result: Totally meaningless steal.

 

10) May 23rd vs Oakland. 2 Steals. Steals third and scores the first run of the game on a wild throw by Kendall. The Sox go on to touch up Saarloos in a game that is never close and ultimately resulted in a 9-3 win for the palehose. On the other steal Pods was stranded. Net Result: Podsednik was a catalyst in the game, but the game wasn't close. Still, his steal contributes to the victory.

 

11) June 1st at Cleveland. 2 Steals. The first steal did score a run, but only after Iguchi walked (which would've sent Pods to second anyway) and Thome doubled (which would've scored him from first anyway. The second steal was a meaningless down-4 steal in the top of the ninth inning that could've probably been ruled Defensive Indifference. Net Result: None, he did not contribute to a win nor did his speed put us in a position to win the game

 

12) June 3rd vs Texas. 1 Steal. Podsednik steals third after doubling in a couple of runs and later scores. His steal partially provides the difference in this 8-6 win. Net Result: Scott was a big part of this game, and it's hard to argue that his stolen base wasn't part of it.

 

13) June 18 at Cincinnati. 1 Steal. Podsednik steals but is stranded in an 8-1 drubbing of the Reds. Net Result: Nada.

 

14) June 24th vs. Houston. 1 Steal. Pods stole second, went to third on a groundout and scored on a manufactured run via a Thome sac fly to allow the Sox to go up 1-0 in the first inning. Although the Crede slam was primarily responsible for paving the way to an eventual Sox win, Pods run in the first is just as important and was the difference. Net Result: Podsednik's run generated by the stolen base was the difference in this game

 

15) June 27th at Pittsburgh 1 Steal. Pods stole second and scored in the first, and although the White Sox never trailed in a close game, the run was crucial. Net Result: Pods' SB was key to the Sox maintaining a slim margin over the Bucks.

 

16) July 1st at Cubs 1 Steal Pods stole a base and was stranded in an 8-6 win. Net Result: Nada

 

17) July 4th vs Baltimore 1 Steal Pods stole a base in the second inning with the Sox already up 4-0 and on their way to a 13-0 drubbing. He was later stranded. Net Result: Nada

 

18) July 5th vs Baltimore 1 Steal Pods stole second and scored the first run in a tight 4-2 Sox winner. Net Result: Scotty contributed to this win with his legs.

 

19) July 8th vs Boston 1 Steal Pods stole a base and got us within a run at 5-4, but ultimately the Sox lose 9-6 to the Red Sox. Net Result: Pods stolen base didn't contribute to a win.

 

20) July 9th vs Boston 1 Steal Scotty steals second in the 12th but is stranded. Net Result: Nada.

 

What's the bottom line?

 

Out of 20 games in which Podsednik steals a base,

11 times (55%) the stolen base(s) didn't effect the outcome whatsoever.

2 times (10%) the stolen base(s) generated a run and contributed to a win, but the game was not really close

7 times (35%) the stolen base(s) directly led to runs that help to insure a win.

 

So out of all the games Podsednik is stealing bases for us, almost 2/3rds of the time the stolen bases don't really affect the outcome. This is a very telling statistic, and I think one in which maybe emphasizes that the Stolen Base is overvalued when there isn't a whole lot else accompanying it. Sure, it's a vital part of a good leadoff hitter's repertoire, but relying on this alone is not enough to keep a guy around in my opinion.

 

I'm not really advocating to get RID of Podsednik this season, but I would like to see a full-time platoon with Ozuna. If we're really resigned to giving up that much defensively in left, we might as well get OBA, OBP, OPS and other things out of it rather than just steals. Ozuna has got something like 200 points of OPS on Scotty. I realize that Ozuna is not going to hit .413 for a season, but even if he just hit .290 he'd STILL have 70 points on Scotty in OPS. Ozuna strikes out far less too, only 8 times in 92 ABs.

 

So why not platoon them? Sorry for the long-winded rant, I just felt this stuff was interesting.

Edited July 10, 2006 by Greg Hibbard

[Jordan4life_2007]

Pods is our leadoff man. We won a title with him as our leadoff man. That's all that really matters. Is he great? No. He wasn't great last year. The only real part of his game that I'm dissapointed with this year is his defense. I don't even have to go into how bad it's been.

[BigSqwert]

Perhaps his speed will be more valuable in the post season when scoring begins to drop off in the cooler weather?

[Milkman delivers]

A little while ago, we discussed having a platoon of Ozuna/Mackowiak in LF. The only thing I can think of that might be a downgrade is how many pitches those two see in comparison to Pods. Does anyone know?

[Sonik22]

I personally love ozuna and everything, but he is not meant to be an everyday player. He is to valuable off the bench. Also as mediocre as pods d is, ozuna isn't any better and it doesnt seem like he has much range.

The success of hitters behind pods when he is on base is somewhat because of pods. When he is on base he gets into the pitchers head causing the pitchers to miss their spots leaving better pitches for guch and thome. I still think that pods is enough of a factor to continue to start in LF.

[Felix]

Pods is our leadoff man. We won a title with him as our leadoff man. That's all that really matters. Is he great? No. He wasn't great last year. The only real part of his game that I'm dissapointed with this year is his defense. I don't even have to go into how bad it's been.

We also won a title with Timo Perez on the bench. So what?

 

I don't think that Pods has been horrible this year. He's doing a great job of making pitchers work (25th in the MLB with 4.08 P/PA), but does tend to strike out looking a lot. He's having a better statistical year than last year, and nearly has as many extra-base hits as he did last year. Still, he needs to improve his defense. His stolen bases are down because he has Thome, Konerko and Dye up behind him, all of which are having spectacular years, and risking getting caught isn't worth it when those 3 each have a chance to knock him in from first (or second).

[Milkman delivers]

I personally love ozuna and everything, but he is not meant to be an everyday player. He is to valuable off the bench. Also as mediocre as pods d is, ozuna isn't any better and it doesnt seem like he has much range.

The success of hitters behind pods when he is on base is somewhat because of pods. When he is on base he gets into the pitchers head causing the pitchers to miss their spots leaving better pitches for guch and thome. I still think that pods is enough of a factor to continue to start in LF.

 

I doubt there's much difference in range, but Ozuna would be better offensively if he gets to face a lot of lefties and I'm sure he would bust his ass out in LF more than Pods does. And if Mackowiak were to get some starts against righties, he'd be better offensively and defensively (I believe he hits righties better, though I may be wrong). He just wouldn't steal as much, which may not even matter since Pods' steals seem useless most of the time.

[Jordan4life_2007]

We also won a title with Timo Perez on the bench. So what?

 

Yeah, everybody knows Timo was as important to our success last year as Pods was. Was Widger as important as A.J., too? Afterall, Widger was on the team. Maybe Willie Harris > Iguchi?

 

I don't think that Pods has been horrible this year. He's doing a great job of making pitchers work (25th in the MLB with 4.08 P/PA), but does tend to strike out looking a lot. He's having a better statistical year than last year, and nearly has as many extra-base hits as he did last year. Still, he needs to improve his defense. His stolen bases are down because he has Thome, Konerko and Dye up behind him, all of which are having spectacular years, and risking getting caught isn't worth it when those 3 each have a chance to knock him in from first (or second).

 

No argument here.

[Kalapse]

Pods is our leadoff man. We won a title with him as our leadoff man. That's all that really matters. Is he great? No. He wasn't great last year. The only real part of his game that I'm dissapointed with this year is his defense. I don't even have to go into how bad it's been.

Right now we could replace Pods with about 25-26 other team's leadoff hitter and we wouldn't lose a step. A great majority of them would be a major upgrade as well.

[Felix]

His stolen bases are down because he has Thome, Konerko and Dye up behind him, all of which are having spectacular years, and risking getting caught isn't worth it when those 3 each have a chance to knock him in from first (or second).

I forgot to mention, Tadahito Iguchi is also hitting .331/.381/.504 with runners on, so why risk getting thrown out? Basically, its smarter that he's not stealing as many bases.

[Kalapse]

I forgot to mention, Tadahito Iguchi is also hitting .331/.381/.504 with runners on, so why risk getting thrown out? Basically, its smarter that he's not stealing as many bases.

I thought that was his 1 major asset though? There's plenty of other guys the Sox could find who could put up a .350 OBP, hit no HRs and steal a couple bases while playing much better defense in LF.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Right now we could replace Pods with about 25-26 other team's leadoff hitter and we wouldn't lose a step. A great majority of them would be a major upgrade as well.

 

So which one of these 25 or 26 leadoff hitters is Kenny gonna go out and trade for?

[RibbieRubarb]

I want to make sure I got this right...

Our leadoff man is bad.

Our starting pitching is bad.

Our SS is bad.

Our CF is bad.

 

Did I miss anything?

[watchtower41]

Right now we could replace Pods with about 25-26 other team's leadoff hitter and we wouldn't lose a step. A great majority of them would be a major upgrade as well.

 

 

I suppose you think Juan Pierre is one of them too.... :headshake

 

 

Pods will never get respect on this board, oldest news around. I'm am STUNNED someone has not brought up Jerry Owens name and the fact that we needed to call him four months ago. Nevermind the fact that Pods increased his average by over .150 points over the course of the first half.

[Kalapse]

So which one of these 25 or 26 leadoff hitters is Kenny gonna go out and trade for?

He's not going to, he's going to stick with Podsednik for whatever reason. I'm just saying that most of the leadoff hitters in baseball are equal to or better than Podsednik. IMO the Sox could have stuck about 30 different people in the leadoff spot (though it would be impossible to acquire some of them using Carlos Lee) and the Sox still would have won the WS.

 

All I'm really saying is, just because the Sox won the World Series with the guy leading off for them doesn't mean they should be content with him this year and in the future.

[tonyho7476]

I want to make sure I got this right...

Our leadoff man is bad.

Our starting pitching is bad.

Our SS is bad.

Our CF is bad.

 

Did I miss anything?

 

We're in second place, which is not 1st.

[Balta1701]

I suppose you think Juan Pierre is one of them too.... :headshake

Pods will never get respect on this board, oldest news around. I'm am STUNNED someone has not brought up Jerry Owens name and the fact that we needed to call him four months ago. Nevermind the fact that Pods increased his average by over .150 points over the course of the first half.

Hasn't Owens increased his average by quite a bit over the first half also? Considering he's up to .249, and IIRC he was down around the Mendoza line for a while.

[Felix]

I thought that was his 1 major asset though? There's plenty of other guys the Sox could find who could put up a .350 OBP, hit no HRs and steal a couple bases while playing much better defense in LF.

Pods is 78th in the league with a .352 OBP, and I'm pretty certain most of the people ahead of him either are untouchable, or are way too much to acquire. I don't have the time to look through every single person on the list, but realistically, which of the players that have a higher OBP than him could be acquired?

 

I also find this thread funny that its posted in July, while he's hitting .349/.378/.419 on the month.

[Greg Hibbard]

Why does Podsednik deserve any respect? Statistics don't lie. The only thing the guy does better than other qualified AL leadoff men is steal bases and score runs, and both of those statistics are clearly overvalued, as one has a smallish chance of contributing to a victory and the other is the product of the hitters behind you.

[Kalapse]

I suppose you think Juan Pierre is one of them too.... :headshake

Pods will never get respect on this board, oldest news around. I'm am STUNNED someone has not brought up Jerry Owens name and the fact that we needed to call him four months ago. Nevermind the fact that Pods increased his average by over .150 points over the course of the first half.

No, I dislike Juan Pierre as a baseball player and always have, here's a post of mine from another thread.

 

This is a list of all the leadoff hitters in baseball, the ones who are better than Scotty Pods are in bold.

 

BAL - Brian Roberts

BOS - Kevin Youkilis/Covelli Crisp

NYY - Johnny Damon

TB - Julio Lugo

TOR - Reed Johnson/Alex Rios

 

CLE - Grady Sizemore

DET - Curtis Granderson

KC - David Dejesus

MIN - Shannon Stewart/Luis Castillo

 

LAA - Chone Figgins

OAK - Mark Kotsay/Mark Ellis

SEA - Ichiro Suzuki

TEX - Gary Mathews Jr.

 

ATL - Marcus Giles

FLA - Hanley Ramirez

NYM - Jose Reyes

PHI - Jimmy Rollins

WAS - Alfonso Soriano

 

CHC - Juan Pierre

CIN - Ryan Freel

HOU - Craig Biggio

MIL - Ricky Weeks

PIT - Jose Bautista (I really don't know)

STL - David Eckstein

 

ARZ - Craig Counsell

LAD - Rafeal Furcal

SD - Dave Roberts

SF - Randy Winn

 

So there's like 3 or 4 teams in baseball who have a worse leadoff hitter than the White Sox.

 

(and yes I do give a damn about defense)

And just because Pods sucked at the beginning of the year then got hot, cold again and now appears to be warm does not mean he's good.

[Felix]

This is a good read about leadoff men and statistics by the way: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writ...eyes/index.html

 

It doesn't include the numbers for all leadoff men, but its something to think about.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

So which one of these 25 or 26 leadoff hitters is Kenny gonna go out and trade for?

 

None. There are areas of far greater concern than Podsednik in left/leading off.

 

This is the last year on his contract, I believe, anyways...

[Greg Hibbard]

Pods is 78th in the league with a .352 OBP, and I'm pretty certain most of the people ahead of him either are untouchable, or are way too much to acquire. I don't have the time to look through every single person on the list, but realistically, which of the players that have a higher OBP than him could be acquired?

 

Carl Crawford?

[Damen]

Pods is 78th in the league with a .352 OBP, and I'm pretty certain most of the people ahead of him either are untouchable, or are way too much to acquire. I don't have the time to look through every single person on the list, but realistically, which of the players that have a higher OBP than him could be acquired?

 

I also find this thread funny that its posted in July, while he's hitting .349/.378/.419 on the month.

 

Good post. Pods isn't good per se, but when he's on, he sees a lot of pitches and is a decent leadoff man. I don't want to see the Sox resign him after this year, but he's certainly not someone that needs to be replaced this year.

 

There are only two areas that may need to be addressed. Starting pitching and bullpen.

[Milkman delivers]

Why does Podsednik deserve any respect? Statistics don't lie. The only thing the guy does better than other qualified AL leadoff men is steal bases and score runs, and both of those statistics are clearly overvalued, as one has a smallish chance of contributing to a victory and the other is the product of the hitters behind you.

 

When Greg Hibbard is on your case, there's something wrong with you.