I'm finally off of the Podsednik bandwagon (long)

[Felix]

kevin youkillis > you

Youkilis is the best leadoff man in baseball. I remember saying that he had the talent to be it last year and getting bashed for it because his MLB numbers weren't impressive at the time, good to know I was right

[iamshack]

For one thing, he isn't a solid leadoff hitter, not even a solid baseball player.

 

They lead the league in RS in the first inning, NOT ALL DUE to Podsednik. Your going to score with just about any ML leadoff hitter when you have a guy like Iguchi batting in the 2-spot along with the fact the White Sox have the best 3-4-5 trio in the majors leagues. Put Crede at the top, A.J., he'll even Uribe, and they're going to score runs simply becuase the men in front of Pods are hitting so damn well.

 

Hitting with RISP isn't a trait thats justifies a player as a good leadoff hitter, unless your David Ortiz and your doinf it EVERY season consistently. Too many players, and teams for that matter, can hit real well with RISP one year, and then hit like crap in situational spots the next.

 

And as you said RBI's are flawed, so lets not even bring them up.

 

It's nice to see him OBP is .370+ in the first inning, but he's putrid the rest of the game.

 

Sorry guys, slap and run leadoff hitters suck.

 

For all the strongly-worded opinions in this post, for a guy whose screen name is "SABR Sox," you sure don't back up your opinion with much more than pure speculation and conjecture.

 

First of all, there is absolutely no proof that OBP or even OPS is the be all, end all stat for what makes a winning team. There is not one spec of evidence that station-to-station offenses are most effective in ALL situations and lead to more long-term success than offenses which contain players like Podsednik. They may score more runs overall, but that proves absolutely nothing. Ask the Cleveland Indians.

 

Secondly, Podsednik has an OBP of .368 and an OPS of .798 when leading off an inning. And as mentioned earlier, with RISP, he has an OBP of .397 and an OPS of .897.

 

So as a leadoff hitter, he is doing his job. And with RISP, he is doing his job.

 

You don't take into effect anything you cannot quanitify, namely Podsednik's (or any other basestealer's) effect on the pitcher or the defense while he is on base.

 

A few things we can quantify:

1) Iguchi's OPS is .829 with a runner on first base (compared to an overall OPS of .775); however, it's only .778 with a runner on second base. Think Pods might have anything to do with that? I do.

 

Let's not confuse the issue here. No one is claiming that Pods is Ricky Henderson, or even the Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youkilis. But IMHO, he is a solid leadoff man.

Edited July 12, 2006 by iamshack

[RockRaines]

Im just curious of who we are supposed to have other than PODS? He is the best guy we have, and have had for many years. He is not the best in the game, but seriously, how are we going to get our hands on those people. Lead off men are a seriously hard thing to come by. Its always good to improve on the team at any position, but in this situation, I am drawing a complete blank. Plus he fits alot of the attitude on the team, and seems to have a big impact on the hustle and energy.

[quickman]

Im just curious of who we are supposed to have other than PODS? He is the best guy we have, and have had for many years. He is not the best in the game, but seriously, how are we going to get our hands on those people. Lead off men are a seriously hard thing to come by. Its always good to improve on the team at any position, but in this situation, I am drawing a complete blank. Plus he fits alot of the attitude on the team, and seems to have a big impact on the hustle and energy.

 

although i agree with you, I am not a huge fan of pods. Certainly leadoff men are hard to find as you point out, but in my own dream I will take a chance on getting Ryan freel. May take some doing, but maybe next year.

[iamshack]

although i agree with you, I am not a huge fan of pods. Certainly leadoff men are hard to find as you point out, but in my own dream I will take a chance on getting Ryan freel. May take some doing, but maybe next year.

 

Well s***, if you are going to dream, let's dream big- let's dream about Carl Crawford!

[SABR Sox]

For all the strongly-worded opinions in this post, for a guy whose screen name is "SABR Sox," you sure don't back up your opinion with much more than pure speculation and conjecture.

 

First of all, there is absolutely no proof that OBP or even OPS is the be all, end all stat for what makes a winning team. There is not one spec of evidence that station-to-station offenses are most effective in ALL situations and lead to more long-term success than offenses which contain players like Podsednik. They may score more runs overall, but that proves absolutely nothing. Ask the Cleveland Indians.

 

Secondly, Podsednik has an OBP of .368 and an OPS of .798 when leading off an inning. And as mentioned earlier, with RISP, he has an OBP of .397 and an OPS of .897.

 

So as a leadoff hitter, he is doing his job. And with RISP, he is doing his job.

 

You don't take into effect anything you cannot quanitify, namely Podsednik's (or any other basestealer's) effect on the pitcher or the defense while he is on base.

 

A few things we can quantify:

1) Iguchi's OPS is .829 with a runner on first base (compared to an overall OPS of .775); however, it's only .778 with a runner on second base. Think Pods might have anything to do with that? I do.

 

Let's not confuse the issue here. No one is claiming that Pods is Ricky Henderson, or even the Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youkilis. But IMHO, he is a solid leadoff man.

 

Lol, I have opinions too.

 

It's obvious that OBP and OPS don't correlate to winning games, but OPS is almost linear to run scoring.

 

As a leadoff hitter, he isn't doing his job. A leadoff hitter's job isn't to steal or hit with runners on base as much as it is just to get on base, and get into scoring position. His OBP is middle of the pack, which isn't bad at all, but he needs to get more bases. SLG below .400 blows, plain and simple. He's not stealing at a 75% sucess rate either, his CS are hurting the team more than his SB are.

 

Iguchi has had a high OPS with a runner on first, but thats only a small sample size. Maybe Pods does have something to do with it, maybe he doesn't. With so few AB's you can't tell accuratley. And if he does, you'd certianly like a better leadoff hitter excersizing the ripple effect, becuase Pods is a below average leadoff man and below average ballplayer.

[chitownsportsfan]

I think we should be clear there are two different aruments here:

 

1) Pods' abilities

2) His value to the team and his future with the Sox.

 

I think it would help if people are clear on what they are arguing. Of course they are related, but I think an argument can be made that PODS isn't a very good player, but he's valuable as the best leadoff hitter we currently have, regardless of his defensive worth.

 

The Sox can win with PODS on this team despite his suckitude. His defense is bad, but LF defense is only worth so much. The players capable of replacing him in left are not better options. Mackowiak is more usefull in an utility role, Ozuna as well. Gload has no role on the team. Widge blows.

 

PODS needs to continue his trend of getting OB and hitting with a bit of pop. He had an otherworldy (read: fluke) first half last year and than went back to mostly crap in the 2nd, although injuries could have played a role.

 

But his career numbers suggest he just isn't that good of a hitter:

 

Career OPS+ of 92 with a career OBP of .345. His career slugging is (puke) .385.

 

Hell, this year, PODS is beating his career OPS by a full 8 points and it's a "lofty" .744.

 

Remember, this is for a LF!

 

Pods is 7th out of 10 among qualified LF in the AL in OPS. In MLB, he is 16th out of 20.

 

ISO power, (Slg-BA) Pods is 2nd to last, only beating...the glorious Matt Murton.

 

Point is, PODS is a terrible LF all around. He can't field a very easy position (relatively), and he can't hit either. He's a below average league hitter in the 2nd best offensive position in baseball. Corner OF is the place for sluggers, not slap hitters.

 

He's the best option this year, next year, we need an upgrade in LF.

Edited July 12, 2006 by chitownsportsfan

[Rowand44]

One of you stat guys want to pull up our record with Pods starting and with out Pods the last two years. Just out of curiousity.

Edited July 12, 2006 by Rowand44

[iamshack]

Lol, I have opinions too.

 

It's obvious that OBP and OPS don't correlate to winning games, but OPS is almost linear to run scoring.

 

As a leadoff hitter, he isn't doing his job. A leadoff hitter's job isn't to steal or hit with runners on base as much as it is just to get on base, and get into scoring position. His OBP is middle of the pack, which isn't bad at all, but he needs to get more bases. SLG below .400 blows, plain and simple. He's not stealing at a 75% sucess rate either, his CS are hurting the team more than his SB are.

 

Iguchi has had a high OPS with a runner on first, but thats only a small sample size. Maybe Pods does have something to do with it, maybe he doesn't. With so few AB's you can't tell accuratley. And if he does, you'd certianly like a better leadoff hitter excersizing the ripple effect, becuase Pods is a below average leadoff man and below average ballplayer.

 

According to whom is that a leadoff hitter's job? You? Why do sabre types believe that there is only one way to do things (theirs)?

 

I happen to believe that it is a leadoff hitter's job to steal bases. I happen to believe that guys who run alot cause trouble for opposing pitchers and defenses. I posted some limited evidence of that (of course you pulled out the classic sample size argument).

 

Once again, where has it ever been proven that this 75% figure is truly the line where stealing makes sense and where it doesn't? That's an arbitrary number that factors in nothing but a bs mathematical formula, but once again does not account for any of the distractions/effects caused by base stealers.

 

As for your final comment, what I was alluding to is that the trouble Podsednik causes on the basepaths may contribute to Iguchi's success when he is on first base, not that simply any runner being on first base adds to Iguchi's success (thus the difference between Iguchi's OPS with no one on as opposed to a runner at first base, as well as the difference with a runner on second as opposed to no one on).

[chitownsportsfan]

According to whom is that a leadoff hitter's job? You? Why do sabre types believe that there is only one way to do things (theirs)?

 

I happen to believe that it is a leadoff hitter's job to steal bases. I happen to believe that guys who run alot cause trouble for opposing pitchers and defenses. I posted some limited evidence of that (of course you pulled out the classic sample size argument).

 

Once again, where has it ever been proven that this 75% figure is truly the line where stealing makes sense and where it doesn't? That's an arbitrary number that factors in nothing but a bs mathematical formula, but once again does not account for any of the distractions/effects caused by base stealers.

 

As for your final comment, what I was alluding to is that the trouble Podsednik causes on the basepaths may contribute to Iguchi's success when he is on first base, not that simply any runner being on first base adds to Iguchi's success (thus the difference between Iguchi's OPS with no one on as opposed to a runner at first base, as well as the difference with a runner on second as opposed to no one on).

 

 

One of you stat guys want to pull up our record with Pods starting and with out Pods the last two years. Just out of curiousity.

 

What would that show about Podsednik in isolation? If the pitching staff is far and away the best staff in MLB, f***ing Timo Perez could trot out to LF and have a number of winning seasons.

[iamshack]

Umm, what is that big red thing?

[Rowand44]

What would that show about Podsednik in isolation? If the pitching staff is far and away the best staff in MLB, f***ing Timo Perez could trot out to LF and have a number of winning seasons.

Well we've trotted Timo Perez out there before in place of Pods so lets see if that theory is true. Why are we isolating Pods from the rest of the team? Baseball is a team sport and you can't just take stats to prove how important some one might be to a team. Like I said, I just want to know our record with Pods starting and with out him starting the last two years. That is all.

[chitownsportsfan]

Well we've trotted Timo Perez out there before in place of Pods so lets see if that theory is true. Why are we isolating Pods from the rest of the team? Baseball is a team sport and you can't just take stats to prove how important some one might be to a team. Like I said, I just want to know our record with Pods starting and with out him starting the last two years. That is all.

 

Fair enough. Anything to get meatwad up there some more!

[SABR Sox]

According to whom is that a leadoff hitter's job? You? Why do sabre types believe that there is only one way to do things (theirs)?

 

I happen to believe that it is a leadoff hitter's job to steal bases. I happen to believe that guys who run alot cause trouble for opposing pitchers and defenses. I posted some limited evidence of that (of course you pulled out the classic sample size argument).

 

Once again, where has it ever been proven that this 75% figure is truly the line where stealing makes sense and where it doesn't? That's an arbitrary number that factors in nothing but a bs mathematical formula, but once again does not account for any of the distractions/effects caused by base stealers.

 

As for your final comment, what I was alluding to is that the trouble Podsednik causes on the basepaths may contribute to Iguchi's success when he is on first base, not that simply any runner being on first base adds to Iguchi's success (thus the difference between Iguchi's OPS with no one on as opposed to a runner at first base, as well as the difference with a runner on second as opposed to no one on).

 

Haha. This forum obviosuly isn't for me. I'll take my business elsewhere.

[chitownsportsfan]

Umm, what is that big red thing?

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wB0jkWnK3E&search=meatwad

[iamshack]

I think we should be clear there are two different aruments here:

 

1) Pods' abilities

2) His value to the team and his future with the Sox.

 

I think it would help if people are clear on what they are arguing. Of course they are related, but I think an argument can be made that PODS isn't a very good player, but he's valuable as the best leadoff hitter we currently have, regardless of his defensive worth.

 

The Sox can win with PODS on this team despite his suckitude. His defense is bad, but LF defense is only worth so much. The players capable of replacing him in left are not better options. Mackowiak is more usefull in an utility role, Ozuna as well. Gload has no role on the team. Widge blows.

 

PODS needs to continue his trend of getting OB and hitting with a bit of pop. He had an otherworldy (read: fluke) first half last year and than went back to mostly crap in the 2nd, although injuries could have played a role.

 

But his career numbers suggest he just isn't that good of a hitter:

 

Career OPS+ of 92 with a career OBP of .345. His career slugging is (puke) .385.

 

Hell, this year, PODS is beating his career OPS by a full 8 points and it's a "lofty" .744.

 

Remember, this is for a LF!

 

Pods is 7th out of 10 among qualified LF in the AL in OPS. In MLB, he is 16th out of 20.

 

ISO power, (Slg-BA) Pods is 2nd to last, only beating...the glorious Matt Murton.

 

Point is, PODS is a terrible LF all around. He can't field a very easy position (relatively), and he can't hit either. He's a below average league hitter in the 2nd best offensive position in baseball. Corner OF is the place for sluggers, not slap hitters.

 

He's the best option this year, next year, we need an upgrade in LF.

 

You can argue that "offensive position" until you are blue in the face but that doesn't change the fact that our starting rotation makes a combined $50 million or so. We cannot afford to have power-hitting all-stars at every position. And don't compare Podsednik to other left fielders, compare him to other leadoff men. On a lesser team, he could arguably play center field (as he did in Milwaukee) and that would blow your whole "offensive position" bs out of the water. Would that make him a better hitter or player since he might compare better to centerfielders as opposed to leftfielders?

 

Haha. This forum obviosuly isn't for me. I'll take my business elsewhere.

 

Not at all dude. Don't let me chase you away.

 

I just don't believe that since you can't quanitfy things, ergo they do not exist. I see too much with my own eyes to take your word for it.

 

Your opinions and theories and stats-based approach are not invalid; but why can't you provide some more evidence that they actually coincide with winning games instead of simply overall run production? Once again, ask the Indians if it is that simple.

[chitownsportsfan]

Your opinions and theories and stats-based approach are not invalid; but why can't you provide some more evidence that they actually coincide with winning games instead of simply overall run production? Once again, ask the Indians if it is that simple.

 

I think the word you are looking for is "correlate". Dude, I'm trying hard to restrain myself, but your posts are rediculous.

 

We can "quantify" how runs are scored. They are mostly scored when guys get on base and hit 3 run homers, not when singles hitters are stealing the occasional base and 25% of the time getting thrown out and making an out in the process. Don't ask Billy Beane or Bill James, ask Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, or every other eagle-eyed slugger who's ever been celebrated because they produce runs by hitting the s*** out of the baseball and getting on base (not making outs) at an insane rate.

 

Stolen Bases are a BIT part in run production, as in not very important. That has been proven not with statistics, but with EMPIRICAL evidence. There is a very strong correlation between runs scored, OBP, and HR's, much more so than with SB's.

 

Go sort through a half century of box scores, calculate every team's OPS, and then see how many runs they scored. Than calculate how many SB's they had, then see how many runs the scored.

 

Plot the data with stolen bases and OPS as the independent variable and runs as the dependent. Now look at the chart and see that runs scored is roughly linearly proportional to OPS but not to stolen bases. (If you don't get this part, go research basic stats, it won't take long I promise, like 30 min on wiki) hit the regression button on your graphing calculator if you want to get all pencil headed about it.

Edited July 12, 2006 by chitownsportsfan

[Jordan4life_2007]

Some of these stat-freaks have way too much time on their hands.

[iamshack]

I think the word you are looking for is "correlate". Dude, I'm trying hard to restrain myself, but your posts are rediculous.

 

We can "quantify" how runs are scored. They are mostly scored when guys get on base and hit 3 run homers, not when singles hitters are stealing the occasional base and 25% of the time getting thrown out and making an out in the process. Don't ask Billy Beane or Bill James, ask Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, or every other eagle-eyed slugger who's ever been celebrated because they produce runs by hitting the s*** out of the baseball and getting on base (not making outs) at an insane rate.

 

Stolen Bases are a BIT part in run production, as in not very important. That has been proven not with statistics, but with EMPIRICAL evidence. There is a very strong correlation between runs scored, OBP, and HR's, much more so than with SB's.

 

Go sort through a half century of box scores, calculate every team's OPS, and then see how many runs they scored. Than calculate how many SB's they had, then see how many runs the scored.

 

Plot the data with stolen bases and OPS as the independent variable and runs as the dependent. Now look at the chart and see that runs scored is roughly linearly proportional to OPS but not to stolen bases. (If you don't get this part, go research basic stats, it won't take long I promise, like 30 min on wiki) hit the regression button on your graphing calculator if you want to get all pencil headed about it.

 

"Dude," simply because I am new here does not mean I am stupid.

 

If you read my posts you will see that I have not disputed that the evidence shows that OPS "correlates" (my deepest apologies for using "coincides" (my attention was partially diverted by the all star game)) with run production. What the evidence does not show is whether teams with the highest OPS tend to score runs the most consistently, whether they are more prone to streaks, whether run production which does not rely on "manufacturing" through productive outs can sustain itself against optimal pitching or in high-stress environments, etc.

 

Simply because you can tally up some numbers and come up with the highest number does not equate to optimal success in winning games. As you might say, that would be "rediculous."

 

Don't think you can just throw out your latest Bill James p

 

There is a hell of a lot more to this game than OPS and traditional offensive positions and pythagorean records. As a WS fan, you should know that.

 

Don't insult my intelligence or that of others with your patronizing, condescending posts.

Edited July 12, 2006 by iamshack

[Jordan4life_2007]

iamshack is cleanin' house in this thread.

[RockRaines]

although i agree with you, I am not a huge fan of pods. Certainly leadoff men are hard to find as you point out, but in my own dream I will take a chance on getting Ryan freel. May take some doing, but maybe next year.

I would just like to see who this magical man is that we can legitimately get with our weak farm system and our only real trading chips, are a future top of the rotation starter, and Javy's contract. I would love to see Crawford, or Sizemore, or etc etc etc. But its just not going to happen. Take pods out of this lineup and we have a gaping hole, and a role to fill.

[iamshack]

Crawford and Sizemore are unattainable unless you want to blow up the team for the sake of adding .100 points of OPS.

 

Scott does fine for what he is asked to do and what the team needs.

 

He will not be signed to a lucrative contract by the White Sox.

Edited July 12, 2006 by iamshack

[RockRaines]

Rock,

Since the only thing that matters for a leadoff hitter is OPS, we should probably bat Jim Thome in the leadoff spot.

Dont use my quote if you are going to just post to f*** with someone else's views, thanks

[Greg Hibbard]

Iamshack,

 

the point is that Podsednik isn't just bad at OPS, he's bad at almost everything, and the point of this thread was not to point out that he's JUST bad at OPS. He's terrible at OPS, RBI, HR, and even taking walks (an important stat for a leadoff hitter, wouldn't you agree) in comparison with OTHER LEADOFF hitters, which is even more pathetic. We're talking about other "set the table" guys who also happen to do things like stealing bases and scoring runs ALMOST as well as Pods, but are about 5-10 notches ahead of him in defense and in other offensive categories.

 

Moreover, the things Podsednik DOES do well either aren't necessarily directly attributable to him (in the case of runs, which requires relying on the hitting of another player, as opposed to homers, rbis, and batting average which all are determined solely by the batter), or they aren't necessarily impactful on the game itself (in the case of steals, which AGAIN, unlike RBIs and HR don't impact the scoreboard immediately, if at all)

 

Simply put, my point is that the s*** he does well doesn't matter that much, whereas the s*** he doesn't do well matters a whole lot more.

[iamshack]

Iamshack,

 

the point is that Podsednik isn't just bad at OPS, he's bad at almost everything, and the point of this thread was not to point out that he's JUST bad at OPS. He's terrible at OPS, RBI, HR, and even taking walks (an important stat for a leadoff hitter, wouldn't you agree) in comparison with OTHER LEADOFF hitters, which is even more pathetic. We're talking about other "set the table" guys who also happen to do things like stealing bases and scoring runs ALMOST as well as Pods, but are about 5-10 notches ahead of him in defense and in other offensive categories.

 

Moreover, the things Podsednik DOES do well either aren't necessarily directly attributable to him (in the case of runs, which requires relying on the hitting of another player, as opposed to homers, rbis, and batting average which all are determined solely by the batter), or they aren't necessarily impactful on the game itself (in the case of steals, which AGAIN, unlike RBIs and HR don't impact the scoreboard immediately, if at all)

 

Simply put, my point is that the s*** he does well doesn't matter that much, whereas the s*** he doesn't do well matters a whole lot more.

 

My point is that whatever s*** he does or doesn't do isn't that much of a problem since the offense is leading the league in runs scored.

 

I am tired of arguing whether he is a good leadoff man or not since we can not even come to agreement on what a good leadoff man does.

 

However, I do know this. Our starting pitching sucks right now. I don't give a flying f*** what Pods or BA do offensively as long as we score runs, they catch the damned ball, and our starters begin to pitch well.