I'm finally off of the Podsednik bandwagon (long)

[hammerhead johnson]

Finally, for the people with access to updated advanced defensive metrics, could someone please look up Scottie's performance over the last 15 games or so (about the time Ozzie called him out about his defense). I would be willing to bet that his defense has improved markedly since about that time.

 

I wish it was that simple, but unfortunately, OF defense does not revolve around hustle. A 30 year old player who has had tens of thousands of fly balls hit to him in his life doesn't just suddenly become a competent defensive outfielder at the age of 30. It must have been fly ball #150,000 that set him straight and provided him with the proper recognition & instincts to play his position at a competent level.

 

Again, he was in the minor leagues for 10 years because he is fundamentally retarded. He is a designated leadoff hitter, which would work out on a select few teams (mostly AL West) who have enough power spread out over various corner positions to get away with having a DH who strictly provides OBP.

 

It's been the same deal throughout his MLB tenure. When people say that his D was better last year, they probably just forgot to think critically? I don't know what to make of it, quite frankly. I think it was because Ned Yost trusted him enough to let him patrol CF.

 

I'm not getting the OPS discussion either (didn't even bother to read it, actually), as it is not relevant when discussing leadoff hitters. How about we combine OBP and batting average, with .700 being the elite level (.300 AVG, .400 OBP). Ichiro is at .750 (.343 AVG, .404 OBP). I don't know, maybe it's a stupid idea, but it's better than OPS in this particular case.

Edited July 12, 2006 by hammerhead johnson

[chitownsportsfan]

I'm not getting the OPS discussion either (didn't even bother to read it, actually), as it is not relevant when discussing leadoff hitters. How about we combine OBP and batting average, with .700 being the elite level (.300 AVG, .400 OBP). Ichiro is at .750 (.343 AVG, .404 OBP). I don't know, maybe it's a stupid idea, but it's better than OPS in this particular case.

 

Good post and I agree with mostly everything. I do think OPS is relevant when discussing "leadoff" hitters. I believe the ideal leadoff hitter is Derek Jeter. He gets on base at a great clip, works the pitcher, hits for a fair amount of power, and runs the bases well--not necessarily a base stealer, but a very good baserunner with a fair amount of speed.

 

I feel PODS fits the profile for a number 8 or 9 hitter very well. If he could play a league average CF, he would have great worth to this team. However, we all know he can barely play LF.

 

Replace him next year.

[hammerhead johnson]

Good post and I agree with mostly everything. I do think OPS is relevant when discussing "leadoff" hitters. I believe the ideal leadoff hitter is Derek Jeter. He gets on base at a great clip, works the pitcher, hits for a fair amount of power, and runs the bases well--not necessarily a base stealer, but a very good baserunner with a fair amount of speed.

 

I feel PODS fits the profile for a number 8 or 9 hitter very well. If he could play a league average CF, he would have great worth to this team. However, we all know he can barely play LF.

 

Replace him next year.

 

Jeter is at .772 (.345 AVG, .427 OBP), which has to be tops for leadoff hitters. So yeah, that is your hall of famer, right there.

 

I mean, people go on and on about how overrated he is, but the numbers don't lie.

 

Unlike OPS, a 50 point difference would be enormous. So, while a .650 combined percentage (.290 AVG, .360 OBP) would be damn good, a .600 combined percentage (.275 AVG, .325 OBP) would kind of suck. Pods is currently at .629 (.276 AVG, .353 OBP), which is actually pretty good. Like I said, he's a designated leadoff hitter.

[iamshack]

I wish it was that simple, but unfortunately, OF defense does not revolve around hustle. A 30 year old player who has had tens of thousands of fly balls hit to him in his life doesn't just suddenly become a competent defensive outfielder at the age of 30. It must have been fly ball #150,000 that set him straight and provided him with the proper recognition & instincts to play his position at a competent level.

 

I'm not getting the OPS discussion either (didn't even bother to read it, actually), as it is not relevant when discussing leadoff hitters. How about we combine OBP and batting average, with .700 being the elite level (.300 AVG, .400 OBP). Ichiro is at .750 (.343 AVG, .404 OBP). I don't know, maybe it's a stupid idea, but it's better than OPS in this particular case.

 

Excuse me? At what point did I make the claim that OF defense revolved around hustle?

 

What is the problem here? WHERE are there any claims in this thread that say Pods is the ideal OF defender or the best leadoff hitter who ever lived? No one is saying that.

 

The point is that he is who we have now, and possibly next year (I'm not sure where you are growing your f***ing magical Gold Glove Best Leadoff Hitter Tree at, but please don't tell the anyone else about it!), and he isn't as terrible or worthless as some would portray him here.

 

The point I made about looking up his defensive metrics in the past 15 games or so is that there supposedly was an "issue" about him taking his at-bats out onto the field. Supposedly his *focus* was somewhere else. Since Ozzie made those comments, and since Scott commented on them himself, I feel as though there has been an improvement, at least, I feel as though I have observed one.

 

I suppose you are right now. I guess we should simply accept that some of our players are terrible, and instead of being encouraged at their efforts to improve, we should all just continue discussing how much they f***ing blow.

Edited July 12, 2006 by iamshack

[hammerhead johnson]

Excuse me? At what point did I make the claim that OF defense revolved around hustle?

 

That is the only way that his D could have improved, theoretically. It was a direct response to this statement: "I'll bet that his defense has improved markedly over the last 15 games".

 

This ain't the NBA where you can start to hustle your ass off in a contract year & therefore fool people into thinking that you've become a competent defender. OF defense revolves around instincts & recognition. Those qualities don't just magically appear after your manager calls you out in the papers. Pods can't "try harder". He is what he is.

Edited July 12, 2006 by hammerhead johnson

[iamshack]

Jeter is at .772 (.345 AVG, .427 OBP), which has to be tops for leadoff hitters. So yeah, that is your hall of famer, right there.

 

I mean, people go on and on about how overrated he is, but the numbers don't lie.

 

Unlike OPS, a 50 point difference would be enormous. So, while a .650 combined percentage (.290 AVG, .360 OBP) would be damn good, a .600 combined percentage (.275 AVG, .325 OBP) would kind of suck. Pods is currently at .629 (.276 AVG, .353 OBP), which is actually pretty good. Like I said, he's a designated leadoff hitter.

 

This isn't a bad idea. But you can't add two stats together in which one of them has the other already incorporated within it.

 

OBP already incorporates BA into it so that in essence, OBP is the number of walks plus hits the batter has. The reason OPS exists is to differentiate the hitters whose OBP may be very similar but whose basehits are very dissimilar.

 

With your suggestion, we could have one hitter who walks at a tremendous rate but doesn't slug for s*** versus another who walks at a high rate but also does slug for a ton. Under your theory, we would have no clue how to differentiate them

 

These players seem pretty similar, don't they?

 

1) Combined OBP and BA of .655

 

2) Combined OBP and BA of .666

 

Player "1" is Brian Giles- OPS of .756

 

Player "2" is David Ortiz- OPS of .997

 

I agree that OPS is not a great measure for a leadoff man, but either is what you have proposed.

 

 

 

That is the only way that his D could have improved, theoretically. It was a direct response to this statement: "I'll bet that his defense has improved markedly over the last 15 games".

 

This ain't the NBA where you can start to hustle your ass off in a contract year & therefore fool people into thinking that you've become a competent defender. OF defense revolves around instincts & recognition. Those qualities don't just magically appear after your manager calls you out in the papers. Pods can't "try harder". He is what he is.

 

When the issue is focus, you sure as hell can "try harder." It was a mental issue, not a physical one.

 

Once again, the improvement I am talking about is relative- relative to his abilities, not Andruw Jones'. From my perspective, Scott was playing much worse than he played last year, and so I am happy that he "appears" to have gotten his s*** together over the last few weeks.

Edited July 12, 2006 by iamshack

[Greg Hibbard]

guys, OBP + BA is redundant.

 

A better measure than OPS for this discussion would be something like the fthe following:

 

OBP + Steals/(Steals + CS) + (#steals/100)*2

 

so in other words, you'd be incorporating steal% and bumping the entire equation by 2 percentage points per stel.

 

There should also be a Sac Bunt factor.

 

this is just off the top of my head

[hammerhead johnson]

Jeter is at .772 (.345 AVG, .427 OBP), which has to be tops for leadoff hitters. So yeah, that is your hall of famer, right there.

 

I mean, people go on and on about how overrated he is, but the numbers don't lie.

 

Unlike OPS, a 50 point difference would be enormous. So, while a .650 combined percentage (.290 AVG, .360 OBP) would be damn good, a .600 combined percentage (.275 AVG, .325 OBP) would kind of suck. Pods is currently at .629 (.276 AVG, .353 OBP), which is actually pretty good. Like I said, he's a designated leadoff hitter.

 

I compiled some numbers. Jeter doesn't qualify for this, but he would rank #2 in the MLB if he was leading off.

 

AVG + OBP Rankings

1. Reed Johnson .816

2. Ichiro Suzuki .741

3. Jamey Carroll .719

4. David DeJesus .714

5. Kevin Youkilis .704

6. Gary Matthews Jr .702

7. David Eckstein .683

8. Ryan Freel .681

9. Julio Lugo .669

10. Johnny Damon .658

11. Jose Reyes .657

12. Brian Roberts .657

13. Dave Roberts .656

14. Shannon Stewart .654

15. Grady Sizemore .654

16. Curtis Granderson .644

17. Richie Weeks .631

18. Scott Podsednik .629

19. Jose Bautista .628

20. Craig Biggio .625

21. Randy Winn .613

22. Rafael Furcal .612

23. Alphonso Soriano .610

24. Hanley Ramirez .608

25. Craig Counsell .608

26. Chone Figgins .600

27. Juan Pierre .596

28. Marcus Giles .591

29. Jimmy Rollins .582

30. Mark Kotsay .547

[Felix]

I compiled some numbers. Jeter doesn't qualify for this, but he would rank #2 in the MLB if he was leading off.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but as its been pointed out, BA + OBP means nothing. OBP includes batting average in it, which defeats the purpose. Plus, what does BA have to do with being a good leadoff hitter? As long as you get on base, who cares if you have a high average?

[hammerhead johnson]

This isn't a bad idea. But you can't add two stats together in which one of them has the other already incorporated within it.

 

Slugging is incorporated into OBP, correct? Every time you get a hit (whether an HR or a single), your OBP increases.

 

It ain't as cut and dry as OPS, but it's better than just straight up OBP.

 

And I'm strictly talking about leadoff hitters. Of course David Ortiz is going to rank highly as well, but we're only taking leadoff hitters into account.

[Felix]

Slugging is incorporated into OBP, correct?

No. SLG involves total bases, something that OBP has nothing to do with.

[iamshack]

The closest thing I can think to do is use his OPS except with an adjusted slugging percentage which accounts for what he would have hit after his sb's are accounted for.

 

So basically, when he gets a single, but then steals second, you adjust his slugging % to account for a double rather than a single. I suppose you could then go back and account for his caught stealings by subtracting it from his slugging %.

 

However, this still doesn't account for the fact that he didn't knock in whatever run he might have by getting a single and a stolen base rather than a double.

 

Surprised though that some stat hasn't been created where stolen bases are somehow factored into an adjusted slugging percentage.

Edited July 12, 2006 by iamshack

[Felix]

So basically, when he gets a single, but then steals second, you adjust his slugging % to account for a double rather than a single. I suppose you could then go back and account for his caught stealings by subtracting it from his slugging %.

This is mentioned (and done for a few players) in an article I linked to earlier in this thread. Its an interesting thought.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writ...eyes/index.html

Edited July 12, 2006 by Felix

[hammerhead johnson]

No. SLG involves total bases, something that OBP has nothing to do with.

 

SLG is influenced by batting average though, correct? Theoretically, the higher the average, the higher the slugging percentage. Your total bases are bound to go up if you're hitting at a higher average, correct? At least in the vast majority of cases, excluding all-or-nothing sluggers.

[iamshack]

This is mentioned (and done for a few players) in an article I linked to earlier in this thread. Its an interesting thought.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writ...eyes/index.html

 

Anyone know how many times Scott has stolen third this season?

 

SLG is influenced by batting average though, correct? Theoretically, the higher the average, the higher the slugging percentage. Your total bases are bound to go up if you're hitting at a higher average, correct? At least in the vast majority of cases, excluding all-or-nothing sluggers.

 

Slugging % is influenced by BA only to the effect that hits are ultimately divided by at bats. But someone could have a .100 BA and have a higher Slugging % than someone with the same amount of AB's who is hitting .399.

 

So SLG is influenced, but not really correlative.

[Felix]

SLG is influenced by batting average though, correct?

Since batting average is just how many hits you get, of course SLG is influenced by it, but SLG doesn't focus on just hits, as BA does. SLG focuses on how many bases you get.

 

Theoretically, the higher the average, the higher the slugging percentage. Your total bases are bound to go up if you're hitting at a higher average, correct?

Not necessarily. For example, Derek Jeter is hitting .345 and has a slugging percentage of .462, while Manny Ramirez is hitting .306 while slugging .615. David Eckstein is hitting .311 with a SLG of .363, while Jose Lopez is hitting .280 with a SLG of .454. If you look at it, BA and SLG aren't really as related as you paint them to be.

[hammerhead johnson]

AVG + OBP Rankings

1. Reed Johnson .816

2. Ichiro Suzuki .741

3. Jamey Carroll .719

4. David DeJesus .714

5. Kevin Youkilis .704

6. Gary Matthews Jr .702

7. David Eckstein .683

8. Ryan Freel .681

9. Julio Lugo .669

10. Johnny Damon .658

11. Jose Reyes .657

12. Brian Roberts .657

13. Dave Roberts .656

14. Shannon Stewart .654

15. Grady Sizemore .654

16. Curtis Granderson .644

17. Richie Weeks .631

18. Scott Podsednik .629

19. Jose Bautista .628

20. Craig Biggio .625

21. Randy Winn .613

22. Rafael Furcal .612

23. Alphonso Soriano .610

24. Hanley Ramirez .608

25. Craig Counsell .608

26. Chone Figgins .600

27. Juan Pierre .596

28. Marcus Giles .591

29. Jimmy Rollins .582

30. Mark Kotsay .547

 

Well, anyway, this list can't tell us anything about anybody, correct? Average is incorporated into OBP, but they are not one and the same. And you can't use straight up slugging numbers to evaluate a leadoff hitter, so batting average plus OBP (even though the former is incorporated into the latter) doesn't necessarily mean that these numbers don't mean anything. It's a list of guys who can both get on base consistently and hit for a high average. One and the same? Not necessarily.

 

Since batting average is just how many hits you get, of course SLG is influenced by it, but SLG doesn't focus on just hits, as BA does. SLG focuses on how many bases you get.

Not necessarily. For example, Derek Jeter is hitting .345 and has a slugging percentage of .462, while Manny Ramirez is hitting .306 while slugging .615. David Eckstein is hitting .311 with a SLG of .363, while Jose Lopez is hitting .280 with a SLG of .454. If you look at it, BA and SLG aren't really as related as you paint them to be.

 

If Eckstein was hitting .275, then his slugging would be much worse than .363. That's the obvious point that I was trying to make.

[iamshack]

Well, since stolen bases don't really advance other runners, as base hits do, I suppose stolen bases should count as singles in terms of SLG %, even if there are times where Scottie might steal second and third after getting on base.

 

If we add steals this way to his SLG% and adjust it (including subtracting cs from sb), his SLG percentage would be .446.

 

Combine that with his OBP of .353, and he has a .799 OPS, or 1 point higher than Mark Teixiera.

 

Just an interesting way to look at it, in my view.

 

If Eckstein was hitting .275, then his slugging would be much worse than .363. That's the obvious point that I was trying to make.

 

No, not necessarily. If he was hitting .275 with 4 extra homers, his slugging would be almost identical to what it is now.

[hammerhead johnson]

In the end, I want my leadoff hitter to get on base consistently and hit for a high average. What is the best measure of this? If it's not OBP + AVG, then hit me up with an alternate method. Again, we're strictly talking leadoff hitters, and we're not taking about a method that takes steals into account.

[SoxFan1]

In the end, I want my leadoff hitter to get on base consistently and hit for a high average. What is the best measure of this? If it's not OBP + AVG, then hit me up with an alternate method. Again, we're strictly talking leadoff hitters, and we're not taking about a method that takes steals into account.

Check your PM's.

[hammerhead johnson]

No, not necessarily. If he was hitting .275 with 4 extra homers, his slugging would be almost identical to what it is now.

 

Again, in the case of leadoff hitters, we're almost always talking about singles and doubles.

 

I'm strictly talking leadoff hitters here. Realistically, if Eckstein is hitting .275, his slugging percentage is much worse, as he is a slap/line-drive hitter, as most leadoff hitters are.

[Felix]

In the end, I want my leadoff hitter to get on base consistently and hit for a high average. What is the best measure of this? If it's not OBP + AVG, then hit me up with an alternate method. Again, we're strictly talking leadoff hitters, and we're not taking about a method that takes steals into account.

Why do you care about the high average? As long as you get on base, which is the key job of a leadoff man, who cares if you are hitting .300 or .250?

[Balta1701]

Why do you care about the high average? As long as you get on base, which is the key job of a leadoff man, who cares if you are hitting .300 or .250?

Hits still move runners along more than walks, hits drive in more runners if people are on base, etc. Just because he's a leadoff man doesn't mean his hits are totally useless.

[iamshack]

Hits still move runners along more than walks, hits drive in more runners if people are on base, etc. Just because he's a leadoff man doesn't mean his hits are totally useless.

 

Which is why SLG% is factored into OPS.

 

All I ask is that you adjust that SLG% to include successful stolen bases.

Edited July 12, 2006 by iamshack

[Felix]

Hits still move runners along more than walks, hits drive in more runners if people are on base, etc. Just because he's a leadoff man doesn't mean his hits are totally useless.

Yep, thats very true. When it comes down to it, which is more important for a leadoff man to do, get on base for the middle of the order, or move runners along on the bases? If you had a choice between someone who hit .250 with a .400 OBP and someone who hit .300 with a .330 OBP, who would you take to leadoff?