I'm finally off of the Podsednik bandwagon (long)

[Dick Allen]

Pods isn't very good, but his OBP and slugging pct. are both higher this year than last, when, if you would have read this board, the man was destined for Cooperstown. I agree he should be a DH, but we have the best one of those. I think you play the year out with him in LF, it worked out OK last season, and deal his arbitration-eligible ass to some other sucker this winter. Hopefully he'll have a few 4 SB games to really pad his stats the second half, and KW can reap the reward.

[Balta1701]

Yep, thats very true. When it comes down to it, which is more important for a leadoff man to do, get on base for the middle of the order, or move runners along on the bases? If you had a choice between someone who hit .250 with a .400 OBP and someone who hit .300 with a .330 OBP, who would you take to leadoff?

If Thome, Konerko and Dye are hitting behind him, and Anderson and Uribe are hitting in front of him, clearly you want the .400 OBP guy. If your middle of the order is missing thunder, but you have somewhat of a balanced lineup with a couple of .280 hitters at the back end, then the reverse might be useful, especially if that .300 translated into more power.

[hammerhead johnson]

Yep, thats very true. When it comes down to it, which is more important for a leadoff man to do, get on base for the middle of the order, or move runners along on the bases? If you had a choice between someone who hit .250 with a .400 OBP and someone who hit .300 with a .330 OBP, who would you take to leadoff?

 

The guy with the .650 combined percentage.

 

It looks like a prototypical leadoff hitter gets on base at a .350 clip.

 

Player A: .275 AVG, .350 OBP

Player B: .250 AVG, .350 OBP

 

The slightly retarded list that I came up with should have player A at a higher ranking. If it was just a straight up OBP list, player A and player B would be pretty much the same dude. That's why my list kinda/sorta makes sense to me, even though there are some major flaws with it, as have been pointed out.

[Jordan4life_2007]

This has turned into a damn good thread. I've actually learned a few things. Good debating, people.

Edited July 12, 2006 by Jordan4life_2006

[chitownsportsfan]

This has turned into a damn good thread. I've actually learned a few things. Good debating, people.

 

Yea, this thread is an example of the best of soxtalk--it's been mostly civic and very informative.

[CWSGuy406]

Well, since stolen bases don't really advance other runners, as base hits do, I suppose stolen bases should count as singles in terms of SLG %, even if there are times where Scottie might steal second and third after getting on base.

 

If we add steals this way to his SLG% and adjust it (including subtracting cs from sb), his SLG percentage would be .446.

 

Ugh... :banghead

 

It's not quite that simple. You can't just do that. The risk -- in this case, getting caught stealing -- MUCH OUTWEIGHS the reward -- getting the extra bag -- especially considering the next three guys behind Podsednik have a combined total of 102 xtra basehits. That's where the 75% number comes from, fwiw. It's not some arbitrary number that some sabr pulled out of mid-air. If I wasn't so damn lazy I'd google an article on it.

 

Oh yeah -- and now add in the times Podsednik has been picked off this year, which (IIRC) don't factor into caught stealings.

 

Podsednik's base-running this year probably hasn't hurt us this year, as he's right around 70%, and his quickness will usually allow him to go from first-to-third rather easily.

 

I also should say that, certain scenarios do call for the stolen base. Like, any time Scott gets on base against Cleveland, and V-Mart is behind home plate, Pods should always have the green light. When I say that I don't like guys going for stolen bases, it's definitely not a blanket statement that applies to every situation.

 

Since this thread seems appropriate, let me say I'm glad that Kenny didn't go through with getting Willy Taveras this past winter -- .253/.307/.308, his numbers on the year -- yuck.

 

I should also say that if the hypothetical Kevin Youkilis fell right into our laps -- ie, the "unusual" leadoff man who isn't fast, but has a real high OBP -- I'd take him as our leadoff man in a heartbeat.

Edited July 13, 2006 by CWSGuy406

[hammerhead johnson]

Podsednik's base-running this year probably hasn't hurt us this year, as he's right around 70%, and his quickness will usually allow him to go from first-to-third rather easily.

 

I hear you on the first-to-third, but IMO 70% is a crappy rate. 29 out of 41 just ain't getting it done.

 

If that rate holds up in the second half, it could mean the difference between him scoring 120 runs and 135 runs. This might sound silly, but with our absolutely ridiculous 2-7, he can't be getting thrown out 30% of the time.

 

While I am in favor of forcing the issue on the basepaths, I hate it when a guy sucks hard.

 

Maybe I have ridiculous expectations in terms of SBs, though. Nothing less than 80% is acceptable, in my opinion.

[AirScott]

he gets on base pretty regularly (he's walking more this year and making up for a somewhat low batting average), and throws off a pitcher when he gets on base (although that can be debated whether or not it makes a difference, I think it does). what worries me though is the low success rate. something seems wrong, before he injured his groin last year he was always up around 80%, and in 2004 he was 70-for-83 in stolen bases. I'm starting to think his groin is still a little tweaked.

[CWSGuy406]

I hear you on the first-to-third, but IMO 70% is a crappy rate. 29 out of 41 just ain't getting it done.

 

If that rate holds up in the second half, it could mean the difference between him scoring 120 runs and 135 runs. This might sound silly, but with our absolutely ridiculous 2-7, he can't be getting thrown out 30% of the time.

 

While I am in favor of forcing the issue on the basepaths, I hate it when a guy sucks hard.

 

I used a wrong choice of words.

 

In talking only about his stolen bases, he's not really hurting us, but he's not really helping a whole lot, either. Actually, when you factor in the times he's been picked off, it's probably had a negative overall effect for the first half of the season.

 

Maybe I have ridiculous expectations in terms of SBs, though. Nothing less than 80% is acceptable, in my opinion.

 

Yup, I agree with that. You wanna be called a great base stealer, not only must you steal a lot of bases, but you better not get caught a whole lot either.

 

Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes -- those guys jump out to me as two of the better ones in the game.

[hammerhead johnson]

Yup, I agree with that. You wanna be called a great base stealer, not only must you steal a lot of bases, but you better not get caught a whole lot either.

 

Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes -- those guys jump out to me as two of the better ones in the game.

 

There are 21 players with 15 or more SBs, and Pods ranks dead last in percentage.

 

1. Brandon Phillips 94% (16-17)

2. Kenny Lofton 94% (15-16)

3. Ichiro Suzuki 93% (27-29)

4. Derek Jeter 90% (18-20)

5. Brian Roberts 88% (22-25)

6. Chone Figgins 85% (33-39)

7. Dave Roberts 85% (23-27)

8. Corey Patterson 84% (31-37)

9. Hanley Ramirez 84% (26-31)

10. Jimmy Rollins 83% (19-23)

11. Bobby Abreu 82% (18-22)

12. Jose Reyes 81% (39-48)

13. Carl Crawford 80% (32-40)

14. Ryan Freel 80% (20-25)

15. Felipe Lopez 79% (23-29)

16. Johnny Damon 78% (18-23)

17. Richie Weeks 77% (17-22)

18. Juan Pierre 75% (30-40)

19. Alphonso Soriano 74% (20-27)

20. Rafael Furcal 72% (21-29)

21. Scott Podsednik 70% (29-41)

 

That ain't getting it done. I don't care how hot his wife is.

[qwerty]

This is a good read about leadoff men and statistics by the way: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writ...eyes/index.html

 

It doesn't include the numbers for all leadoff men, but its something to think about.

 

I dislike posting before i have read any of the thread... but this article is so ridiculous that i just had to point it out to anyone if they skipped over it.

[hammerhead johnson]

Can I post nude pictures of his wife? Or is that frowned upon?

[T R U]

How many times as he been picked off first?

 

I really hate that its counted as a SB, IMO I dont think getting picked off is getting caught stealing.. but I know that it goes down as one in the books anways..

 

So just curious as to what the numbers are on that..

 

EDIT: Hammerhead, you can PM me those pictures

Edited July 13, 2006 by T R U

[hammerhead johnson]

How many times as he been picked off first?

 

I really hate that its counted as a SB, IMO I dont think getting picked off is getting caught stealing.. but I know that it goes down as one in the books anways..

 

So just curious as to what the numbers are on that..

 

He's been picked off 4 times already, by these pitchers:

 

Sean Marshall

Salomon Torres

Andy Pettite

Cliff Lee

 

s*** man, the more that I look at Podsednik's entire body of work, the more aggravated I get. It's probably time to step away from the computer for a few. Just because Ozzie loses sleep doesn't mean that I have to.

[YASNY]

Can I post nude pictures of his wife? Or is that frowned upon?

 

Totally frowned upon. But, I do have a perfect valid email addy.

[Rowand44]

A lot of stats being thrown around in this thread but I think one of the more important stats hasn't been discussed yet, the fact that the Sox are under .500 this year when Scott doesn't start. I believe this was also the case last season(if we weren't under .500, we were considerably worse with him out of the lineup) and him getting injured coincided with the August slump. Like I said earlier, I can't stand to watch him play left field but I do believe he's a pretty solid lead off hitter. As annoying as he can be when he watches strike three or can't get a bunt down, he does have some very serious value to this team. Pods also usually is someone that makes a pitcher work, you rarely see him swing at the first pitch and most of the time he'll see a good amount of pitches per at bat. That seems to be forgotten with him a lot of the time and I think that was especially important last season when you had a guy coming in from Japan who had never seen major league pitching before.

[StrangeSox]

A lot of stats being thrown around in this thread but I think one of the more important stats hasn't been discussed yet, the fact that the Sox are under .500 this year when Scott doesn't start. I believe this was also the case last season(if we weren't under .500, we were considerably worse with him out of the lineup) and him getting injured coincided with the August slump. Like I said earlier, I can't stand to watch him play left field but I do believe he's a pretty solid lead off hitter. As annoying as he can be when he watches strike three or can't get a bunt down, he does have some very serious value to this team. Pods also usually is someone that makes a pitcher work, you rarely see him swing at the first pitch and most of the time he'll see a good amount of pitches per at bat. That seems to be forgotten with him a lot of the time and I think that was especially important last season when you had a guy coming in from Japan who had never seen major league pitching before.

 

You also have to look at who else is out of the lineup, who's pitching, who the opponents are, etc. Just looking at what games he was in or not doesn't give the whole story.

[Rowand44]

You also have to look at who else is out of the lineup, who's pitching, who the opponents are, etc. Just looking at what games he was in or not doesn't give the whole story.

I agree. That's research I haven't taken the time to do. That being said, when him getting hurt coincides with the Sox going through their tough stretch last season and the Sox continue to struggle with him out of the lineup this season, then there has to be more to it than just coincidence.

Edited July 13, 2006 by Rowand44

[pcullotta]

There are 21 players with 15 or more SBs, and Pods ranks dead last in percentage.

 

21. Scott Podsednik 70% (29-41)

 

That was a great post. Here is a link to the Baseball Prospectus article that goes over the "Stolen Base Percentage has to be over 75%" argument.

BP Article

Edited July 13, 2006 by pcullotta

[Greg Hibbard]

I agree. That's research I haven't taken the time to do. That being said, when him getting hurt coincides with the Sox going through their tough stretch last season and the Sox continue to struggle with him out of the lineup this season, then there has to be more to it than coincidence.

 

Last season we struggled to score runs with ANY lineup, until we got hot in October.

 

This season is totally different

 

We are 4-4 without him in the lineup, but we also scored 44 runs in those games, an average of 5.5 per game...

Edited July 13, 2006 by Greg Hibbard

[Rowand44]

Last season we struggled to score runs with ANY lineup, until we got hot in October.

 

This season is totally different

 

We are 4-4 without him in the lineup, but we also scored 44 runs in those games, an average of 5.5 per game...

I'm not sure where you got 4-4 but I got different numbers.

 

Still, lets say your numbers are correct, then we've averaged almost a half run lower per game without him in the lineup.

Edited July 13, 2006 by Rowand44

[iamshack]

I believe pickoffs count as a caught stealing only if the runner breaks for the next base on the throw over. If he attempts to just dive back to the base, I believe it is counted as a pickoff.

 

I also think there is something to the fact that the team has a much better record when Scottie plays, but you also must remember, the games that Scottie sits out also happen to be the games against tough left-handed starters. It probably has more to do with the coincidence that we are playing a Scott Kazmir, or an Eric Bedard, or whomever, then the fact that Scottie isn't playing.

 

As for the idea of adding successful stolen bases to slugging percentage and adjusting it, that's just an idea. Obviously, the fact that getting thrown out should have more of a negative effect than the positive effect of making it safely is something to think about, as well as the fact that slugging percentage is a statistic meant to differentiate power hitters from singles hitters with similar OBP's.

 

It was just a suggestion, but one that I think is a hell of a lot better than the way we currently look at leadoff hitters/basestealers.

 

And yes, I do think the 75% rule is f'ing arbitrary and stupid. Baseball is an amazingly complex game- stop trying to quantify everything into numbers to assign value to it. Accept that there are flat out things that cannot be accurately quantified sometimes. Cease painting every player or situation with the same brush. It cannot be done.

Edited July 13, 2006 by iamshack

[Rowand44]

[/b]I also think there is something to the fact that the team has a much better record when Scottie plays, but you also must remember, the games that Scottie sits out also happen to be the games against tough left-handed starters. It probably has more to do with the coincidence that we are playing a Scott Kazmir, or an Eric Bedard, or whomever, then the fact that Scottie isn't playing.

That's a fair point, however the horrid month of August last season did happen to be when Scott went down so it wasn't just against the tough lefties. There is a fair amount of data that shows he's a pretty important piece to this offense. His defense on the other hand....

 

And yes, I do think the 75% rule is f'ing arbitrary and stupid. Baseball is an amazingly complex game- stop trying to quantify everything into numbers to assign value to it. Accept that there are flat out things that cannot be accurately quantified sometimes. Cease painting every player or situation with the same brush. It cannot be done.

This I do agree with but that's an argument for a different time.

[iamshack]

That was a great post. Here is a link to the Baseball Prospectus article that goes over the "Stolen Base Percentage has to be over 75%" argument.

BP Article

 

I'm sorry, but just because you can come up with a number which justifies what successful % leads to optimal run production is just not accurate. It doesn't factor in some of the quantifiable effects of stolen bases like errant pick-off throws, errant throws to the base by the catcher, the number of subsequent hits that were allowed because of fielders moving to cover the bag, the change in actual pitches the hitter may see (more fastballs?), or any of the non-quantifiable effects of stolen bases such as the pressure put on the pitcher, the pressure put on the defense, , etc., etc., etc.

 

What BP and the almighty Joe Sheehan have done here is at best perhaps created a "rule of thumb." It does not apply to the more noteworthy basestealers (Podsednik, Crawford, Reyes, Figgins, Freel, etc.) who's effects on the pitcher and defense just by reaching base can completely alter the mood or feeling of a game.

 

This is a good article about basestealing, but honestly, it barely scratches the surface.

Edited July 13, 2006 by iamshack

[My Dixie Normus]

Pods, Fields and Vaz for Carl Crowford would work for me.