Your 2007 ChiSox

[Capn12]

So heres what I see so far for 2007 payroll:

 

Javier Vazquez $10 mil

Freddy Garcia $10 mil

Jose Contreras $9 mil

Mark Buehrle $9.5 mil club option

Jon Garland $10 mil

 

Our starting rotation is already in at $48.5 million.

 

Jim Thome $7 mil *(this assumes that the $22 mil we got from Philly is split equally on his contract from 06-08)

Paul Konerko $12 mil

Jermaine Dye $6 mil team option

A.J. Pierzynski $5.5 mil

Juan Uribe $4.15 mil

Tadahito Iguchi $3.25 mil team option

Rob Mackowiak $2.75 mil

 

Thats who is signed for sure for 2007. Thats $89.15 million dollars in 12 guys next year already. Now lets consider these arbitration eligible names that we still control:

 

Joe Crede ($2.675 mil in 06)

Scott Podsednik ($1.9 mil in 06)

Alex Cintron ($1.6 mil in 06)

Pablo Ozuna ($0.5 mil in 06)

Neal Cotts ($0.4 mil in 06)

Matt Thornton ($0.355 mil in 06)

Ross Gload ($0.35 mil in 06)

 

We can assume that the club is gonna offer most of these guys arb. I would think, maybe not Gload or Cintron. Also consider Crede's salary will, I would think, go to the $6-8 mil mark for 07 even if we have to use arbitration and not get a multi-year deal done.

 

Bobby Jenks ($0.34 mil in 06)

Brandon McCarthy ($0.332 mil in 06)

Brian Anderson ($0.332 mil in 06)

 

The club can control the salaries on the above 3, due to less than 2 years MLB experience as of the end of 06.

 

 

Dustin Hermanson ($3.5 mil option in 07)

 

We can also assume Dustins option isn't going to be picked up.

 

David Riske ($1.8 mil in 06)

Cliff Politte ($1.2 mil in 06)

Chris Widger ($0.65 mil in 06)

 

Those are your 3 free agents not arbitration eligible, and their 2006 salaries.

 

So, lets say we keep everyone under contract for next year. Lets also say Crede comes in at the $7 mil arbitration number. Our payroll sits at $96.15 million in 13 players. Future GMs and magistrates of this country....what deals/offers do you make, to cement the other 12 spots on our team? Including the arbitration salaries of the rest of our arb. eligible guys. Or, what we do to rid ourselves of some of our restraints. Back yourselves up with numbers.

 

Lets see what you guys can come up with, since everyone has questioned KW at some point in his tenure.

[Rowand44]

We'll probably get a good idea of how next year is going to shape up when the trade deadline passes or at least a bit of a better idea than we have right now.

[RME JICO]

I would say the biggest move will be McCarthy to the rotation and moving one of the current starters to gain 6-9 million in payroll back that can be used on Crede and some of the other Arb eligible players or FAs.

 

There is a good chance that a couple of current minor league players will also make the 25-man roster next year, replacing guys like Politte, Widger, and Cintron or Pods as well. That will also reduce the payroll without taking a hit in performance.

 

Look for the Sox to lock up Buehrle, Dye, Iguchi, and Crede to longer deals too.

Edited July 14, 2006 by RME JICO

[YASNY]

Some of those youger guys (Anderson, BMac for example) are not arbiration eligble. They have to be 4 year players, I think, before they earn that right. What that means is that Sox can pay them whatever they feel they are worthy of.

[Capn12]

Ahh! Thanks YAS

[Greg Hibbard]

Isn't part of Vazquez' 2007 salary also covered?

 

Also, Podsednik will be given his walking papers, IMO.

[Rowand44]

Isn't part of Vazquez' 2007 salary also covered?

 

Also, Podsednik will be given his walking papers, IMO.

Yes.

 

Pods will have to be traded if he's not on the 07 squad as he still has a year or two of arbitration left.

Edited July 14, 2006 by Rowand44

[SoxFan76]

Forget about the bullpen, we all know it needs improvement and that has been beaten to death. Besides, bullpens are usually a crapshoot. Going in, you usually know who your #1 and 2 are going to be, beyond that you never know.

 

I'd like to see an upgrade at the leadoff spot. Podsednik has been good, not great for this team. He can't steal like he used to, and his OBP isn't THAT great. .350 ain't bad, but it could be better. I've grown tired of Podsednik lately. He's a great guy, but I think the Sox can do much better.

 

I'd like to see another legit ace come into the equation. I'm sorry, I love everything that Buerhle has done for this team the last 6 years, but I see him as a really good number 2. I don't see him as an ace. I'm not asking for Liriano/Santana, but I'd like to see a legit ace replace Vazquez in the rotation. Unfortunately, that is easier said than done. Money talks. (oh yeah, and EVERY team wants a legit ace to replace their 5th starter, haha)

[YASNY]

Forget about the bullpen, we all know it needs improvement and that has been beaten to death. Besides, bullpens are usually a crapshoot. Going in, you usually know who your #1 and 2 are going to be, beyond that you never know.

 

I'd like to see an upgrade at the leadoff spot. Podsednik has been good, not great for this team. He can't steal like he used to, and his OBP isn't THAT great. .350 ain't bad, but it could be better. I've grown tired of Podsednik lately. He's a great guy, but I think the Sox can do much better.

 

I'd like to see another legit ace come into the equation. I'm sorry, I love everything that Buerhle has done for this team the last 6 years, but I see him as a really good number 2. I don't see him as an ace. I'm not asking for Liriano/Santana, but I'd like to see a legit ace replace Vazquez in the rotation. Unfortunately, that is easier said than done. Money talks. (oh yeah, and EVERY team wants a legit ace to replace their 5th starter, haha)

 

I think the pen is okay with Jenks, Thornton, Cotts, Riske handling the bulk of the crucial situations. That's better than most.

 

We aren't going to be able to upgrade over Pods this year and still have a lead off man.

 

Legit aces are hard to come by. That ain't happening.

[ZoomSlowik]

Forget about the bullpen, we all know it needs improvement and that has been beaten to death. Besides, bullpens are usually a crapshoot. Going in, you usually know who your #1 and 2 are going to be, beyond that you never know.

 

I'd like to see an upgrade at the leadoff spot. Podsednik has been good, not great for this team. He can't steal like he used to, and his OBP isn't THAT great. .350 ain't bad, but it could be better. I've grown tired of Podsednik lately. He's a great guy, but I think the Sox can do much better.

 

I'd like to see another legit ace come into the equation. I'm sorry, I love everything that Buerhle has done for this team the last 6 years, but I see him as a really good number 2. I don't see him as an ace. I'm not asking for Liriano/Santana, but I'd like to see a legit ace replace Vazquez in the rotation. Unfortunately, that is easier said than done. Money talks. (oh yeah, and EVERY team wants a legit ace to replace their 5th starter, haha)

 

You're right, it's a lot easier to say that we'd like to make those upgrades than to actually get them done. Quality leadoff men and ace starters are both in short supply and high demand. There aren't any of the former in FA, and those in the latter category are less than stellar and would cost a ton. Zito is probably the only real upgrade. We'd have to give up a ton in trade to get those kind of pieces.

 

One of our starters is almost certainly going to be dealt this off-season IMO. My bet is that it's Garcia. He's only got one year left and his stuff clearly seems to be in decline. I don't see us giving up on Vazquez or Garland. The former is our latest reclamation project (so he'll probably get some time), and the latter is by far the youngest in the rotation. B-Mac gets the open spot, which opens up some payroll. Our rotation would still be stronger than the majority of the league with Contreras and Buehrle up front and Vazquez, Garland, and B-Mac filling it out.

 

I think the bullpen is going to see only minor changes. Jenks, Cotts, and Thorton all will be back, and I just don't see us overpaying for a big time reliever. We might add another reliever somewhat along the lines of Politte and Hermanson.

[Hangar18]

I'd like to see another legit ace come into the equation. I'm sorry, I love everything that Buerhle has done for this team the last 6 years, but I see him as a really good number 2. I don't see him as an ace. I'm not asking for Liriano/Santana, but I'd like to see a legit ace replace Vazquez in the rotation. Unfortunately, that is easier said than done. Money talks. (oh yeah, and EVERY team wants a legit ace to replace their 5th starter, haha)

 

 

Vazquez and Buehrle CANT be on the same team. Vazquez is simply the latin version of Buehrle. Gives up tons of hits, lots of runs, but eats lots of innings.

[Gregory Pratt]

Vazquez and Buehrle CANT be on the same team. Vazquez is simply the latin version of Buehrle. Gives up tons of hits, lots of runs, but eats lots of innings.

 

Uh, no, not really. That's a really bad comparison.

[valponick]

Uh, no, not really. That's a really bad comparison.

I agree that comparing Buehrle and Vazquez is silly, their numbers are surprisingly VERY similar.

[redandwhite]

I was under the impression that arbitration eligible players' salaries cannot more than double. Therefore, Crede will get a shade under six, that is if his contract doubles.

[Felix]

I was under the impression that arbitration eligible players' salaries cannot more than double. Therefore, Crede will get a shade under six, that is if his contract doubles.

Since his contract this year wasn't through arbitration, I don't think that applies. I could be wrong though.

[Gregory Pratt]

I agree that comparing Buehrle and Vazquez is silly, their numbers are surprisingly VERY similar.

 

Eh, similarities are bound to happen between pitchers. But I can think up two different spots where they differ greatly: strikeouts and ERA. Mark is simply better at getting through an inning unless it's error-induced; Javier goes crazy.

[valponick]

Eh, similarities are bound to happen between pitchers. But I can think up two different spots where they differ greatly: strikeouts and ERA. Mark is simply better at getting through an inning unless it's error-induced; Javier goes crazy.

I disagree, the numbers of an "ace" and a #5 shouldn't be so similar.

[Greg Hibbard]

I disagree, the numbers of an "ace" and a #5 shouldn't be so similar.

 

Vazquez spent many years pitching in the National League, guys.

[Rowand44]

I disagree, the numbers of an "ace" and a #5 shouldn't be so similar.

Difference in era is more than a full run. Oh, and another thing....Buehrle has a brain.

 

EDIT: And if we're talking about their careers, Mark's era is over a half run better when he's been pitching the AL his whole career and Javy has been pitching in the NL for most of his.

Edited July 14, 2006 by Rowand44

[valponick]

Difference in era is more than a full run. Oh, and another thing....Buehrle has a brain.

 

EDIT: And if we're talking about their careers, Mark's era is over a half run better when he's been pitching the AL his whole career and Javy has been pitching in the NL for most of his.

ERA is an overrated stat. No we aren't talking about their careers, the OP was talking about this year.

[Greg Hibbard]

ERA is an overrated stat. No we aren't talking about their careers, the OP was talking about this year.

 

 

When it comes to comparing relievers, I totally agree that ERA is an overrated stat because IRS comes into play so damned much

 

Starters, on the other hand....ERA is not overrated in my book. In fact, I would venture to say it's the second most important stat after WHIP.

[qwerty]

I was under the impression that arbitration eligible players' salaries cannot more than double. Therefore, Crede will get a shade under six, that is if his contract doubles.

 

Very false.

 

http://www.strikethree.com/03/02/06/dave.shtml

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/base...ration.figures/

 

There are way more up to date ones... but those were just handy.

[witesoxfan]

ERA is an overrated stat. No we aren't talking about their careers, the OP was talking about this year.

 

Just curious, how exactly is ERA an overrated stat, especially for starting pitchers?

 

A stat that tells how many runs a pitcher normally gives up that are his fault is overrated. I don't quite understand that. As far as I'm concerned, you must look at ERA and WHIP for starters, because they are by far the two most important stats for pitchers.

 

If we're talking relievers here, that is completely different. Marte had a 3.71 or so ERA last year, but he was shaky as hell, particularily in the second half, as his second half WHIP was around 2.00, and his WHIP on the year was around 1.70.

[valponick]

Just curious, how exactly is ERA an overrated stat, especially for starting pitchers?

 

A stat that tells how many runs a pitcher normally gives up that are his fault is overrated. I don't quite understand that. As far as I'm concerned, you must look at ERA and WHIP for starters, because they are by far the two most important stats for pitchers.

 

If we're talking relievers here, that is completely different. Marte had a 3.71 or so ERA last year, but he was shaky as hell, particularily in the second half, as his second half WHIP was around 2.00, and his WHIP on the year was around 1.70.

ERA is overrated because it takes situations where fielding deficiencies or decisions by the players in the field and lumps them in as the fault of the pitcher. Fielding Independant Pitching (FIP) is a much better choice for pitcher evaluation because it takes into account only strikeouts, hit batsmen, walks, and home runs. these are things that for all intents and purposes are solely the result of how the pitcher pitches.

 

for starters, read this

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/drspectrum.html

 

 

 

Furthermore, if you look at some of the numbers:

 

Buehrle

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/pl...hrle&firstName=

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/buehrma01.shtml

115 ERA+

4.65 FIP

1.32 WHIP

4.0 K/9

1.19 HR/9

2006- 19 Win Shares, 39.6 VORP, 6.2 WARP

 

Vazquez

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/pl...astName=Vazquez

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/vazquja01.shtml

91 ERA+

3.77 FIP

1.35 WHIP

7.0 K/9

.81 HR/9

10 Win Shares, 39.9 VORP, 6.1 WARP

 

It's probably a discussion for another thread but....Vazquez has actually been slightly better than Buehrle this year.

Edited July 15, 2006 by valponick

[Balta1701]

It's probably a discussion for another thread but....Vazquez has actually been slightly better than Buehrle this year.

You know how there are some stats for defense which in 2000 started saying that Jose Valentin really wasn't that bad of a defender despite all the errors? The stats were the problem. When you have a stat which tells you something which is simply nonsense, at some point, it's showing you something odd about the metric. Vaz has been no where near as good as Buehrle, not even mentionning that like 20% of the runs MB gave up came in 1 inning.