Your 2007 ChiSox

[valponick]

You know how there are some stats for defense which in 2000 started saying that Jose Valentin really wasn't that bad of a defender despite all the errors? The stats were the problem. When you have a stat which tells you something which is simply nonsense, at some point, it's showing you something odd about the metric. Vaz has been no where near as good as Buehrle, not even mentionning that like 20% of the runs MB gave up came in 1 inning.

No, I don't know of anything about 2000 and Jose Valentin, that's not what we were discussing. I merely posted a brief statistical analysis of the two pitchers. Earlier in the thread the comment was made that Vazquez was the Latino version of Buehrle, in terms of this year, he was not far off. Which stat that I posted was "simply nonsense"? Did you even read my post? Or just quote the last line of it?

Edited July 15, 2006 by valponick

[witesoxfan]

ERA is overrated because it takes situations where fielding deficiencies or decisions by the players in the field and lumps them in as the fault of the pitcher. Fielding Independant Pitching (FIP) is a much better choice for pitcher evaluation because it takes into account only strikeouts, hit batsmen, walks, and home runs. these are things that for all intents and purposes are solely the result of how the pitcher pitches.

 

for starters, read this

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/drspectrum.html

Furthermore, if you look at some of the numbers:

 

Buehrle

[url="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/buehrma01.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/buehrma01.shtml

115 ERA+

4.65 FIP

1.32 WHIP

4.0 K/9

1.19 HR/9

2006- 19 Win Shares, 39.6 VORP, 6.2 WARP

 

Vazquez

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/pl...astName=Vazquez

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/vazquja01.shtml

91 ERA+

3.77 FIP

1.35 WHIP

7.0 K/9

.81 HR/9

10 Win Shares, 39.9 VORP, 6.1 WARP

 

It's probably a discussion for another thread but....Vazquez has actually been slightly better than Buehrle this year.

 

 

That's fine and dandy and all, but there's not a chance in hell you are going to convince me that Javier Vazquez has been better than Mark Buehrle this year.

 

Mark Buehrle seems to be hated by statisticians because he has a mediocre-slightly above K/9, and he allows a ton of balls to be put into play. That is bad because it opens the door for inconsistency and streakiness, something often seen by Buehrle. However, when you have the best defense in the majors(arguably...I haven't had the time to look up who exactly does have the best defense in the league), pitching to contact is not the worst thing to do. In your theory, Buehrle putting a fastball on the outside corner to a pull hitter on a 2-2 count to try and get him to roll over the ball and hit it to the shortstop is a bad idea. Instead, you'd rather see him try and strike him out with perhaps a high fastball or a cutter on the hands. With Buehrle's mediocre stuff, the hitter has a hundredth of a second longer to recognize the pitch, and decide what he wants to do with it, be it watch it or swing at it. Either way, you're risking that he takes the pitch, and Buehrle has to come at him with a strike; that he misses his spot and it ends up in the gap or the stands; that he hits it and puts the ball into play, making an out; or that the hitter swings through it.

 

If everything were neutral, and every team's defense was piss-poor, than I'd agree that FIP would be a good stat to use. As is, I'll stick to ERA and I'll let you stick to FIP.

[valponick]

That's fine and dandy and all, but there's not a chance in hell you are going to convince me that Javier Vazquez has been better than Mark Buehrle this year.

 

Mark Buehrle seems to be hated by statisticians because he has a mediocre-slightly above K/9, and he allows a ton of balls to be put into play. That is bad because it opens the door for inconsistency and streakiness, something often seen by Buehrle. However, when you have the best defense in the majors(arguably...I haven't had the time to look up who exactly does have the best defense in the league), pitching to contact is not the worst thing to do. In your theory, Buehrle putting a fastball on the outside corner to a pull hitter on a 2-2 count to try and get him to roll over the ball and hit it to the shortstop is a bad idea. Instead, you'd rather see him try and strike him out with perhaps a high fastball or a cutter on the hands. With Buehrle's mediocre stuff, the hitter has a hundredth of a second longer to recognize the pitch, and decide what he wants to do with it, be it watch it or swing at it. Either way, you're risking that he takes the pitch, and Buehrle has to come at him with a strike; that he misses his spot and it ends up in the gap or the stands; that he hits it and puts the ball into play, making an out; or that the hitter swings through it.

 

If everything were neutral, and every team's defense was piss-poor, than I'd agree that FIP would be a good stat to use. As is, I'll stick to ERA and I'll let you stick to FIP.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything. I was just putting some numbers out there that can be better used to measure pitching performance than ERA.

[witesoxfan]

I'm not trying to convince you of anything. I was just putting some numbers out there that can be better used to measure pitching performance than ERA.

 

That's fine, I don't intend to offend if I did.

 

I actually like when people put out different ideas and theories on how to judge the quality of players. I may not agree with them, as I don't agree with yours, but I'm always open to hearing them.

[RME JICO]

Buehrle

2006- 19 Win Shares, 39.6 VORP, 6.2 WARP

 

Vazquez

10 Win Shares, 39.9 VORP, 6.1 WARP

 

It's probably a discussion for another thread but....Vazquez has actually been slightly better than Buehrle this year.

 

I think you were looking at another year for WS and VORP:

 

Win Shares 2006:

Buehrle - 9

Vazquez - 7

 

VORP 2006:

Buehrle - 19.8

Vazquez - 9.9

 

 

For looking at pitchers, I use my own number to come up with a comparison ((TB + HBP + BB) / IP). I think this is better than WHIP since it adds the extra base hits into the equation. I understand that it is still affected by fielding, but not as much as some of the other stats. WHIP doesn't show whether the hit was a single or a HR, this computation does.

 

TBIP - 2006

Contreras 1.62

Buehrle 1.98

Vazquez 1.99

Garcia 2.22

Garland 2.27

 

Normally under 1.50 is Cy Young award caliber and somewhere around 2.00 is average, over 2.40 is bad.

Edited July 15, 2006 by RME JICO

[qwerty]

I think you were looking at another year for WS and VORP:

 

Win Shares 2006:

Buehrle - 9

Vazquez - 7

 

VORP 2006:

Buehrle - 19.8

Vazquez - 9.9

For looking at pitchers, I use my own number to come up with a comparison ((TB + HBP + BB) / IP). I think this is better than WHIP since it adds the extra base hits into the equation. I understand that it is still affected by fielding, but not as much as some of the other stats. WHIP doesn't show whether the hit was a single or a HR, this computation does.

 

TBIP - 2006

Contreras 1.62

Buehrle 1.98

Vazquez 1.99

Garcia 2.22

Garland 2.27

 

Normally under 1.50 is Cy Young award caliber and somewhere around 2.00 is average, over 2.40 is bad.

 

That was basically pwnage...

[valponick]

I think you were looking at another year for WS and VORP:

 

Win Shares 2006:

Buehrle - 9

Vazquez - 7

 

VORP 2006:

Buehrle - 19.8

Vazquez - 9.9

For looking at pitchers, I use my own number to come up with a comparison ((TB + HBP + BB) / IP). I think this is better than WHIP since it adds the extra base hits into the equation. I understand that it is still affected by fielding, but not as much as some of the other stats. WHIP doesn't show whether the hit was a single or a HR, this computation does.

 

TBIP - 2006

Contreras 1.62

Buehrle 1.98

Vazquez 1.99

Garcia 2.22

Garland 2.27

 

Normally under 1.50 is Cy Young award caliber and somewhere around 2.00 is average, over 2.40 is bad.

Yea, I took the numbers from the 2006 PECOTA forecast, oversight on my part. Thanks for posting what you did as it proves my point even further.

[zygoat]

i like the post, but i would rather stay focused on this year and how our starting pitching has sucked, i would like to see kenny mix things up wiht a trade