Garcia/Garland to the mets?

[WCSox]

Burnett got his contract soley based on his upside and pure stuff, the guy throws in the high 90's with a nasty breaking ball when healthy, a guy like that is always going to find a place in baseball. Burnett is a horrible comparison to Buehrle.

 

Burnett has Ace quality stuff, Buehrle does not, it's really as simple as that.

 

Burnett had several injuries (and also needed Tommy John sugery) and was dismissed from his team for throwing them under the bus to the press. He's injury-prone and has a bad attitude - two very good reasons to not throw a $55 million contract at him.

 

Whatever better "stuff" Burnett has, Mark has been tremendously more successful in terms of individual pitching performance, winning, and being a good teammate. His value is much higher than Burnett's.

Edited July 15, 2006 by WCSox

[Kalapse]

Burnett had several injuries (and also needed Tommy John sugery) and was dismissed from his team for throwing them under the bus to the press. He's injury-prone and has a bad attitude - two very good reasons to not throw a $55 million contract at him.

 

Whatever better "stuff" Burnett has, Mark has been tremendously more successful in terms of individual pitching performance, winning, and being a good teammate. His value is much higher than Burnett's.

And he'll get more money than Burnett got but not $20M more. Don't you wonder why kerry wood will probably end up getting a nice sized deal after this season? GMs love guys with killer arms, they all think they'll be the one to get the most out of the guy no one else could tap into.

 

Buehlre should get a nice payday but it will not be that much more than Burnett got. I'd say $13M at this point in time looks to be the safe bet. Barry Zito should give us a better idea of what Buehrle will command on the open market, they've had extremely similar careers and should get similar money in free agency.

[WCSox]

And he'll get more money than Burnett got but not $20M more. Don't you wonder why kerry wood will probably end up getting a nice sized deal after this season? GMs love guys with killer arms, they all think they'll be the one to get the most out of the guy no one else could tap into.

 

Burnett's been in the majors since '99 and has never lived up to his potential. If he hasn't become an ace by now and has had enough injury problems to limit him to only two 200-inning seasons, he's probably never going to live up to that potential. He's an older Mark Prior with slightly less injury risk, but a worse attitude.

 

Buehlre should get a nice payday but it will not be that much more than Burnett got. I'd say $13M at this point in time looks to be the safe bet. Barry Zito should give us a better idea of what Buehrle will command on the open market, they've had extremely similar careers and should get similar money in free agency.

 

It's possible that the Burnett signing was a fluke and that Buehrle isn't going to get that much more. But it did create a precedent and it's likely that Steinbrenner and his aging, injury-prone pitching staff will drive the market up even higher.. And if Mark continues to pitch at his career averages for the next year and a half, $13 million/year is where the negotiations will probably start. Agreed that Zito's next deal should tell us more.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(shoota @ Jul 14, 2006 -> 07:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Quality post.

:rolly

 

WHERE'S OUR BABE RUTH FOR CASH CONSIDERATIONS???

[Wedge]

Marky-mark just needs to go slide on a tarp to get himself going again.

[Balta1701]

Marky-mark just needs to go slide on a tarp to get himself going again.

You know...right now...if it works...

[YASNY]

I think Mark's got a tired arm. He needs to skip a couple of starts. As bad as Mark has been lately, it wouldn't hurt to let Tracey take his turn for a couple.

[southsideirish71]

I think Mark's got a tired arm. He needs to skip a couple of starts. As bad as Mark has been lately, it wouldn't hurt to let Tracey take his turn for a couple.

 

 

I would rather stretch out bmac, have him in the rotation while some of our starters get some DL rest time. Then move Tracey in the bullpen. Our team has a much better shot at winning with bmac in the rotation over Tracey.

[RME JICO]

I would rather stretch out bmac, have him in the rotation while some of our starters get some DL rest time. Then move Tracey in the bullpen. Our team has a much better shot at winning with bmac in the rotation over Tracey.

 

I was thinking the same thing. You could rotate the starters on the DL and have McCarthy filling in for their slots in the rotation. Then come September the Sox would have a more rested rotation for a playoff run.

[ZoomSlowik]

Very few starters have gotten more than $12 mil a year in recent history, even with the market being ridiculous. After the debacles with Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park, and Denny Neagle, you're just not going to see that very often. You'll only see top guys or potential top guys getting that kind of money recently. The only ones that got that much in the last couple of years were Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and Bartolo Colon coming off a Cy Young season. I don't see people giving pitchers too much more than that unless we're talking about one of the top 5 starters in the game.

 

That said, I think Zito probably gets $12-13 mil this off-season. He's pitching well and he has an impressive resume. The 5-75 talk is just crap though. Remember, people were throwing out 10-200 numbers for Beltran and 5-75 for Paulie. Projections are almost always going to be a bit high, at least now. Buehrle would probably get something similar to Zito, and I wouldn't be surprised if he signed a 5-55 extension at some point.

[WCSox]

The 5-75 talk is just crap though. Remember, people were throwing out 10-200 numbers for Beltran and 5-75 for Paulie. Projections are almost always going to be a bit high, at least now. Buehrle would probably get something similar to Zito, and I wouldn't be surprised if he signed a 5-55 extension at some point.

 

Comparing Beltran and Paulie to a consistently-good left-handed starting pitcher is apples and oranges. If you think that Buehrle is going to settle for the same contract as A.J. Burnett (a pitcher that he's trumped in just about every aspect), you're out of your freaking mind. I'd be absolutely shocked if Mark settled for anything less than 5 years/$65 million. That's what it'll probably take to sign Zito and is probably where Buehrle's negotiations will start.

[Balta1701]

That said, I think Zito probably gets $12-13 mil this off-season. He's pitching well and he has an impressive resume. The 5-75 talk is just crap though. Remember, people were throwing out 10-200 numbers for Beltran and 5-75 for Paulie. Projections are almost always going to be a bit high, at least now. Buehrle would probably get something similar to Zito, and I wouldn't be surprised if he signed a 5-55 extension at some point.

Paulie might have been able to get 5-$70 from the Orioles had he really pushed them. Supposedly they told him they were willing to go higher, but he just didn't want to play there.

 

And I for one think someone is going to be pushing $70 or more for Zito.

[ZoomSlowik]

Comparing Beltran and Paulie to a consistently-good left-handed starting pitcher is apples and oranges. If you think that Buehrle is going to settle for the same contract as A.J. Burnett (a pitcher that he's trumped in just about every aspect), you're out of your freaking mind. I'd be absolutely shocked if Mark settled for anything less than 5 years/$65 million. That's what it'll probably take to sign Zito and is probably where Buehrle's negotiations will start.

 

That wasn't my point. My point was that you can't buy any of the contract talk out there. $15 mil a year for a pitcher is insane and it'll take a very good pitcher to earn that kind of money, better than anyone that will be out there.

 

There's also a difference between Buehrle and Burnett. Burnett got his contract on the open market. We're re-signing him, which typically means that you get him for less than market value. Johan Santana signed for 4-40 a while ago, even though he probably could have gotten 5-70 easily.

 

If he hit the open market, that's what I think Buehrle probably would end up with, however I don't see us letting that happen. Even that might be a little bit of a stretch, given he doesn't have the greatest stuff and doesn't have a history of dominance like the other $12-mil-plus pitchers. Finesse pitchers don't seem to get quite as much money as your fire-balling potential aces.

[RME JICO]

Paulie might have been able to get 5-$70 from the Orioles had he really pushed them. Supposedly they told him they were willing to go higher, but he just didn't want to play there.

 

And I for one think someone is going to be pushing $70 or more for Zito.

 

:puke

[ZoomSlowik]

Paulie might have been able to get 5-$70 from the Orioles had he really pushed them. Supposedly they told him they were willing to go higher, but he just didn't want to play there.

 

And I for one think someone is going to be pushing $70 or more for Zito.

 

I just don't see it, unless someone wants to give him 6 years. That's a lot to pay for a guy that isn't one of the most dominating pitchers in the league. Someone along the lines of Santana, Oswalt, Zambrano, or Peavy I could see, but that'd be a serious mistake is someone gives Zito that much. He's been pretty good most of his career, but rarely has he been a dominant ace.

[iamshack]

Comparing Beltran and Paulie to a consistently-good left-handed starting pitcher is apples and oranges. If you think that Buehrle is going to settle for the same contract as A.J. Burnett (a pitcher that he's trumped in just about every aspect), you're out of your freaking mind. I'd be absolutely shocked if Mark settled for anything less than 5 years/$65 million. That's what it'll probably take to sign Zito and is probably where Buehrle's negotiations will start.

 

Burnett's contract was driven up because of his k numbers and his stuff. Similarly to Javy's contract, AJ isn't worth that much but he got it based on what he has the "potential" to do, but not what he does consistently.

 

Mark will get a lot of money, but the fact that he doesn't miss bats and doesn't have that jaw-dropping stuff will probably keep him from getting what his record might suggest he would otherwise get.

[WCSox]

That wasn't my point. My point was that you can't buy any of the contract talk out there. $15 mil a year for a pitcher is insane and it'll take a very good pitcher to earn that kind of money, better than anyone that will be out there.

 

There's also a difference between Buehrle and Burnett. Burnett got his contract on the open market. We're re-signing him, which typically means that you get him for less than market value. Johan Santana signed for 4-40 a while ago, even though he probably could have gotten 5-70 easily.

 

If he hit the open market, that's what I think Buehrle probably would end up with, however I don't see us letting that happen. Even that might be a little bit of a stretch, given he doesn't have the greatest stuff and doesn't have a history of dominance like the other $12-mil-plus pitchers. Finesse pitchers don't seem to get quite as much money as your fire-balling potential aces.

 

(1) $15 million/year is not "insane" by any stretch of the imagination. That's what a well-past-his-prime Randy Johnson is making. IIRC, Vazquez is getting paid something like $13 million in the last year of his deal. Andy Pettitte, who is comparable to Buehrle in terms of talent, but older and has more injury problems, is getting paid just under $16.5 million this year. Mussina, another very-good-but-not-elite pitcher, has averaged around $18 million/year for the past three seasons. If Steinbrenner was willing to give a past-his-prime Moose that type of money, he'll gladly give it to a 28-year-old Buehrle as well.

 

(2) Buehrle is going to test the open market, just like Paulie did. He'd be stupid not to. I agree that the Sox (or Cardinals) may be able to get him to come down to 5/$65 mil at a hometown discount. That's an average of $13 million/year, which is Vazquez money.

 

(3) I'm really not buying the "power pitchers get more money" argument with regard to Burnett. Any GM worth a damn is going to pay significantly more for a consistently-good, workhorse, injury-free finesse pitcher who is a good teammate and contributed heavily to a WS title than someone like Burnett who has only thrown 200 innings twice in six years as a starter, has been hampered by injuries (including reconstructive elbow surgery), has put up good-but-not-great numbers, has never won anything, and was kicked off of his team for bad-mouthing his teammates and coaches.

[iamshack]

(3) I'm really not buying the "power pitchers get more money" argument with regard to Burnett. Any GM worth a damn is going to pay significantly more for a consistently-good, workhorse, injury-free finesse pitcher who is a good teammate and contributed heavily to a WS title than someone like Burnett who has only thrown 200 innings twice in six years as a starter, has been hampered by injuries (including reconstructive elbow surgery), has put up good-but-not-great numbers, has never won anything, and was kicked off of his team for bad-mouthing his teammates and coaches.

 

I agree that many gm's will learn from what has happened in regards to Burnett, Vazquez, and some other "stuff" pitchers who have not fulfilled their potential. We have already seen the gears shift as more durable pitchers begin to see their payday. Guys like Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson, and even to some degree Esteban Loaiza- known as "innings eaters" got money they might not have dreamt of getting 3-4 years ago.

 

This offseason and the next, guys like Zito, Buehrle, and to a lesser extent now Mulder will test the market and we will all see if they get contracts equivalent to that of what Burnett and Vazquez received.

[ZoomSlowik]

(1) $15 million/year is not "insane" by any stretch of the imagination. That's what a well-past-his-prime Randy Johnson is making. IIRC, Vazquez is getting paid something like $13 million in the last year of his deal. Andy Pettitte, who is comparable to Buehrle in terms of talent, but older and has more injury problems, is getting paid just under $16.5 million this year. Mussina, another very-good-but-not-elite pitcher, has averaged around $18 million/year for the past three seasons. If Steinbrenner was willing to give a past-his-prime Moose that type of money, he'll gladly give it to a 28-year-old Buehrle as well.

 

(2) Buehrle is going to test the open market, just like Paulie did. He'd be stupid not to. I agree that the Sox (or Cardinals) may be able to get him to come down to 5/$65 mil at a hometown discount. That's an average of $13 million/year, which is Vazquez money.

 

(3) I'm really not buying the "power pitchers get more money" argument with regard to Burnett. Any GM worth a damn is going to pay significantly more for a consistently-good, workhorse, injury-free finesse pitcher who is a good teammate and contributed heavily to a WS title than someone like Burnett who has only thrown 200 innings twice in six years as a starter, has been hampered by injuries (including reconstructive elbow surgery), has put up good-but-not-great numbers, has never won anything, and was kicked off of his team for bad-mouthing his teammates and coaches.

 

1) Vazquez and Mussina were both signed a while ago, back when contracts were even more ridiculous. Plus neither Vazquez or Pettitte are getting those kind of totals over the life of the contract, they're only getting it for one year. Pettitte made $5.5 mil the first year and only made $8.5 mil last year. He only gets the ridiculous money for this year ($17.5 mil). Vazquez averages just over $11 mil. There are a few guys making that much, but that doesn't mean that suddenly Buehrle and Zito are going to get over $13 mil per year. Most of those guys were dominant pitchers at some point or another (Schilling, Johnson, Martinez, Mussina, Brown, Hampton).

 

2) So now you can read his mind? He's said that he wants to come back, so if he can get a fair deal I don't see why he wouldn't. There are an awful lot of stupid players in the league if re-signing before hitting the market is your criteria.

 

3) That hasn't been the case thus far. Pettitte was the best finnesse pitcher in recent years, and he got just over $10 mil a year. Plus, as many have said, not all GM's are competent.

 

I agree that many gm's will learn from what has happened in regards to Burnett, Vazquez, and some other "stuff" pitchers who have not fulfilled their potential. We have already seen the gears shift as more durable pitchers begin to see their payday. Guys like Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson, and even to some degree Esteban Loaiza- known as "innings eaters" got money they might not have dreamt of getting 3-4 years ago.

 

This offseason and the next, guys like Zito, Buehrle, and to a lesser extent now Mulder will test the market and we will all see if they get contracts equivalent to that of what Burnett and Vazquez received.

 

The only problem with that is that the guys you mentioned haven't been that great either. A lot of pitchers have been getting a lot more than they should, regardless of their stuff. I don't really see that affecting things.

 

They probably will actually get slightly better than those contracts. Both of those guys signed for about $11 mil a year. I've already said that I think Buehrle and Zito will get $12-13 mil per year, since they're both proven successful pitchers. I just don't see them getting a whole lot more than that.

Edited July 17, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[WCSox]

1) Vazquez and Mussina were both signed a while ago, back when contracts were even more ridiculous. Plus neither Vazquez or Pettitte are getting those kind of totals over the life of the contract, they're only getting it for one year. Pettitte made $5.5 mil the first year and only made $8.5 mil last year. He only gets the ridiculous money for this year ($17.5 mil). Vazquez averages just over $11 mil. There are a few guys making that much, but that doesn't mean that suddenly Buehrle and Zito are going to get over $13 mil per year. Most of those guys were dominant pitchers at some point or another (Schilling, Johnson, Martinez, Mussina, Brown, Hampton).

 

What makes you think that contracts are going to become any less "ridiculous" in the future? Unless there just happens to be an inordinate amount of quality free-agent pictchers on the market in a particular year, the money is going up, not down. This is especially true if the Yankees or Red Sox are buying that year.

 

The fact that Vazquez and Mussina were getting big bucks from contracts signed three years ago supports my argument. By the time Mark is a free agent, it'll have been about five years since those deals were inked... and they're going to be significantly higher. If Brunett and Vazquez are going to average $11 million/year, Buehrle and Zito will average AT LEAST $2 million/year more and could probably command additional money.

 

A 27-year-old Mark Buehrle is inherently more valuable than a 38-year-old Randy Johnson or a 35-year-old Mike Mussina, even if he hasn't been as dominant as those guys were several years before inking their current deals.

 

You're also forgetting the Steinbrenner Factor. Keep in mind that Randy Johnson is a free agent soon and that Seinbrenner is going to also be looking for replacements for Pavano and Wright. If he's desperate for a relatively young, durable, and accomplished starter and is willing to pay Jeter $19 million a year, Mark could easily get 5 years/$75 million in New York.

 

2) So now you can read his mind? He's said that he wants to come back, so if he can get a fair deal I don't see why he wouldn't. There are an awful lot of stupid players in the league if re-signing before hitting the market is your criteria.

 

I don't have to. Mark has already stated not once, but twice, that he's interested in playing for the Cardinals. And when was the last time that Jerry Reinsdorf committed $60-$70 million to a pitcher? If JR and KW didn't make a serious effort to re-sign Konerko in his walk year, why would they do so for Buehrle? Mark may not even have a say in whether or not he tests the open market - JR may force him to.

 

3) That hasn't been the case thus far. Pettitte was the best finnesse pitcher in recent years, and he got just over $10 mil a year. Plus, as many have said, not all GM's are competent.

The only problem with that is that the guys you mentioned haven't been that great either. A lot of pitchers have been getting a lot more than they should, regardless of their stuff. I don't really see that affecting things.

 

Maddux and Glavine are both finesse pitchers and they earned top dollar in their primes.

 

"Stuff" matters more when a pitcher is 22 and has limited MLB experience. But at some point, pitchers need to turn their "superior stuff" into results. Buehrle has and, for the most part, Burnett has not. Factor in Burnett's arm problems, bad attitude, and lack of postseason success, and I guarantee you that Mark will make $3-5 million/year more than him.

Edited July 17, 2006 by WCSox

[ZoomSlowik]

The fact that Vazquez and Mussina were getting big bucks from contracts signed three years ago supports my argument. By the time Mark is a free agent, it'll have been about five years since those deals were inked... and they're going to be significantly higher. If Brunett and Vazquez are going to average $11 million/year, Buehrle and Zito will average AT LEAST $2 million/year more and could probably command additional money.

 

A 27-year-old Mark Buehrle is inherently more valuable than a 38-year-old Randy Johnson or a 35-year-old Mike Mussina, even if he hasn't been as dominant as those guys were several years before inking their current deals.

 

You're also forgetting the Steinbrenner Factor. Keep in mind that Randy Johnson is a free agent soon and that Seinbrenner is going to also be looking for replacements for Pavano and Wright. If he's desperate for a relatively young, durable, and accomplished starter and is willing to pay Jeter $19 million a year, Mark could easily get 5 years/$75 million in New York.

I don't have to. Mark has already stated not once, but twice, that he's interested in playing for the Cardinals. And when was the last time that Jerry Reinsdorf committed $60-$70 million to a pitcher? If JR and KW didn't make a serious effort to re-sign Konerko in his walk year, why would they do so for Buehrle? Mark may not even have a say in whether or not he tests the open market - JR may force him to.

Maddux and Glavine are both finesse pitchers and they earned top dollar in their primes.

 

"Stuff" matters more when a pitcher is 22 and has limited MLB experience. But at some point, pitchers need to turn their "superior stuff" into results. Buehrle has and, for the most part, Burnett has not. Factor in Burnett's arm problems, bad attitude, and lack of postseason success, and I guarantee you that Mark will make $3-5 million/year more than him.

 

Just because it's been a while doesn't mean that the contract totals will increase. In fact, they're coming down a bit. You're not going to see $18 mil contracts like Hampton got, or people giving guys in their mid-30's monster long term contracts like Mussina or Brown, or someone like Chan Ho Park getting $12 mil a year, or a supremely unproven commodity like Dreifort getting over $10 mil (yes, Burnett was more proven). Just because time has passed doesn't mean that people automatically get more money.

 

Buehrle is not as good as Maddux and Glavine were in their prime, so that's a moot point. Even on his more recent contract, Glavine signed for 3-35, nothing that ridiculous. Buehrle is pretty similar to Pettitte, and he got 3-31. He's also not really more valuable than Mussina or Johnson. At the time they were signed, Mussina was only 32 and was coming off a solid season, and Johnson had just put up a Cy Young caliber season. Yeah, the deals were a bit long, but that's another story. Both were at least as good as Buehrle if not better. Age isn't really a factor in the price, just the length.

 

I never said stuff was everything, but guys clearly have to prove less to get serious money if they have good stuff. They're going to pay more if they think a guy can be a shut-down type ace. That's what is going to knock Buehrle down from absolute top dollar just a bit.

 

Mark has also said that he wants to stay with the Sox, and the Sox have said that re-signing Mark will be a top priority this off-season. Mark's a different player than Paulie, so that's a bit irrelevant. They also probably weren't too sure they wanted to pay what he was worth at the time, given his previously inconsistent performance. That's also a pre-title situation, we have more money to work with now. If they're willing to shell out a little under $10 mil a year for Contreras and Garland, I don't see why they wouldn't shell out 4-48 or 5-55 for Mark.

 

Mark will not make $14 mil a year. He's just not an elite pitcher, those are the only guys that make that kind of money. He's a very good pitcher, which translates to a bit less than that. You keep harping on Burnett, but his contract is fairly meaningless. He got that much money because he was the best starter available in a weak market, which jacked up his price. That won't be the case when Mark hits the market. The Yankees can only sign so many pitchers, and they're a lot more likely to go after Schmidt or Zito in 2006 or Beckett, Carpenter, Colon, Oswalt, Schilling or Zambrano in 2007 (obviously they won't all be there, but probably at least 2 or 3).

Edited July 17, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[WCSox]

Just because it's been a while doesn't mean that the contract totals will increase. In fact, they're coming down a bit. You're not going to see $18 mil contracts like Hampton got, or people giving guys in their mid-30's monster long term contracts like Mussina or Brown, or someone like Chan Ho Park getting $12 mil a year, or a supremely unproven commodity like Dreifort getting over $10 mil (yes, Burnett was more proven). Just because time has passed doesn't mean that people automatically get more money.

 

The number of years committed to players may go down (i.e., no more Brown-like 7-year deals), but I don't see any evidence of the amount per year going down. The fact that an injury-prone, not-that-great A.J. Burnett got 5/$55 certainly suggests otherwise.

 

Buehrle is not as good as Maddux and Glavine were in their prime, so that's a moot point. Even on his more recent contract, Glavine signed for 3-35, nothing that ridiculous. Buehrle is pretty similar to Pettitte, and he got 3-31. He's also not really more valuable than Mussina or Johnson.

 

Glavine is a dinosaur, so his current deal isn't comparable to Buehrle's. Pettitte is SEVEN years older than Buehrle, has had more injury problems, and his regular-season numbers in the AL were less impressive than Mark's.

 

Mark has also said that he wants to stay with the Sox, and the Sox have said that re-signing Mark will be a top priority this off-season.

 

That's all meaningless media-speak. Robin Ventura and Ron Schueler were saying the same crap back in '98 and looked what happened.

 

The fact that the Sox let Paulie twist in the wind during his walk year with Dye as their only other high OPS player speaks volumes.

 

That's also a pre-title situation, we have more money to work with now. If they're willing to shell out a little under $10 mil a year for Contreras and Garland, I don't see why they wouldn't shell out 4-48 or 5-55 for Mark.

 

If that's all they're willing to offer, Mark will probably be pitching elsewhere in '08. That's seriously low-balling him.

 

Mark will not make $14 mil a year. He's just not an elite pitcher, those are the only guys that make that kind of money. He's a very good pitcher, which translates to a bit less than that. You keep harping on Burnett, but his contract is fairly meaningless. He got that much money because he was the best starter available in a weak market, which jacked up his price. That won't be the case when Mark hits the market. The Yankees can only sign so many pitchers, and they're a lot more likely to go after Schmidt or Zito in 2006 or Beckett, Carpenter, Colon, Oswalt, Schilling or Zambrano in 2007 (obviously they won't all be there, but probably at least 2 or 3).

 

Schmitt and Colon are both past their primes and have had serious arm injuries in the recent past. Schilling is a dinosaur and won't command much. The BoSox won't let Beckett go because he's all they have after Schilling. And the Cubs and Astros also have deep pockets and are likely to re-sign their aces. So that basically leaves Zito and Carpenter.

 

You are correct about the number of free agents determining market value. It's also fair to say that Mark may choose to stay in Chicago or go somewhere else for less than he could get. But to say that Buehrle "won't make $14 mil a year" is wrong. He could easily get that much money in a four- or five-year deal if the Yankess, Red Sox, or Mets needed a starter that badly.

 

But if we can agree that $13 million/year over five years is definitely a possibility, I think that we have some common ground.

[ZoomSlowik]

The number of years committed to players may go down (i.e., no more Brown-like 7-year deals), but I don't see any evidence of the amount per year going down. The fact that an injury-prone, not-that-great A.J. Burnett got 5/$55 certainly suggests otherwise.

Glavine is a dinosaur, so his current deal isn't comparable to Buehrle's. Pettitte is SEVEN years older than Buehrle, has had more injury problems, and his regular-season numbers in the AL were less impressive than Mark's.

That's all meaningless media-speak. Robin Ventura and Ron Schueler were saying the same crap back in '98 and looked what happened.

 

The fact that the Sox let Paulie twist in the wind during his walk year with Dye as their only other high OPS player speaks volumes.

If that's all they're willing to offer, Mark will probably be pitching elsewhere in '08. That's seriously low-balling him.

Schmitt and Colon are both past their primes and have had serious arm injuries in the recent past. Schilling is a dinosaur and won't command much. The BoSox won't let Beckett go because he's all they have after Schilling. And the Cubs and Astros also have deep pockets and are likely to re-sign their aces. So that basically leaves Zito and Carpenter.

 

You are correct about the number of free agents determining market value. It's also fair to say that Mark may choose to stay in Chicago or go somewhere else for less than he could get. But to say that Buehrle "won't make $14 mil a year" is wrong. He could easily get that much money in a four- or five-year deal if the Yankess, Red Sox, or Mets needed a starter that badly.

 

But if we can agree that $13 million/year over five years is definitely a possibility, I think that we have some common ground.

 

I do think that it's possible that he gets $13 mil, but I think that's a best-case scenario on the open market.

 

A couple comments on the other pitchers:

 

Judging by his current performance, it'd be hard to say that Schmidt is over the hill. I can definitely see the Yankees giving him a 2 or 3 year deal at a pretty high price. I would definitely think they go for Zito over Buehrle. However, that's all probably mute because it's pretty much a lock that we exercise his option if we don't work out an extension.

 

Boston probably will keep Beckett, but who knows, he might want to test the market. Schilling will be an interesting situation, it could end up similar to what happened with Pedro. He'll probably want a 3-year deal at a high price, and they may or may not want to pay that. He'd almost certainly end up with another contender. Carpenter is kind of similar, although in the long run I see him staying with St, Louis. You're right, Oswalt probably stays.

 

I can definitely see Zambrano going though. Zambrano might want to get out of that situation. I sure would if I were him. I also get the feeling that teams like Boston and New York would offer more money than the Cubs, they don't exactly have a good history in that area.

 

My problem is how many open rotation spots will these teams have? Only so many pitchers can go to those three teams, and Boston might not even be in the market for a starter with Beckett and Schilling potentially back and Lester and Papelbon developing. The other two might have holes, but they might also fill them this off-season. Those teams can't sign everyone.

Edited July 17, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[Balta1701]

My problem is how many open rotation spots will these teams have? Only so many pitchers can go to those three teams, and Boston might not even be in the market for a starter with Beckett and Schilling potentially back and Lester and Papelbon developing. The other two might have holes, but they might also fill them this off-season. Those teams can't sign everyone.

On paper, the Yankees should have plenty of starting pitching. Mussina, Johnson, Wang, Pavano, Wright, Chacon, etc. They shouldn't be in the market for a starting pitcher at all. But when you sign expensive guys who are in their 30's...things happen.

[WCSox]

A couple comments on the other pitchers:

 

Judging by his current performance, it'd be hard to say that Schmidt is over the hill. I can definitely see the Yankees giving him a 2 or 3 year deal at a pretty high price. I would definitely think they go for Zito over Buehrle. However, that's all probably mute because it's pretty much a lock that we exercise his option if we don't work out an extension.

 

Boston probably will keep Beckett, but who knows, he might want to test the market. Schilling will be an interesting situation, it could end up similar to what happened with Pedro. He'll probably want a 3-year deal at a high price, and they may or may not want to pay that. He'd almost certainly end up with another contender. Carpenter is kind of similar, although in the long run I see him staying with St, Louis. You're right, Oswalt probably stays.

 

I can definitely see Zambrano going though. Zambrano might want to get out of that situation. I sure would if I were him. I also get the feeling that teams like Boston and New York would offer more money than the Cubs, they don't exactly have a good history in that area.

 

My problem is how many open rotation spots will these teams have? Only so many pitchers can go to those three teams, and Boston might not even be in the market for a starter with Beckett and Schilling potentially back and Lester and Papelbon developing. The other two might have holes, but they might also fill them this off-season. Those teams can't sign everyone.

 

(1) Schmidt did not pitch well at all last season and only has one "ace"-type season and two "good" seasons under his belt. I'm not convinced that he's going to be a super-hot commodity on the market.

 

(2) The Yanks will definitely make a run at Zito before Buehrle because Buehrle won't be available until '08. Of course, George wants to win now. Whether or not they'll sign him remains to be seen.

 

(3) Schilling will be 41 this winter and he's already lost about 4-5 mph off of his fastball. Unlike Pedro, who can put a ton of movement on his pitches, I don't see Schilling being an ace without that dominating fastball. If I were a GM, I'd stay away. His agent will leverage his past dominance to over-inflate his price.

 

(4) I see your point about Zambrano and agree that there's a good chance that he'll bolt. I'm sure that the Cubs will try to overwhelm him with a really sweet deal, though. It's going to be interesting.

 

(5) I see at least two or three spots opening up on the Yankess staff over the next two seasons. Johnson will be a free agent soon (next season?) and they'll do what they can to dump Pavano and Wright (even if they have to eat salary).