ESPN Report: Kenny Looking at Scott Linebrink

[beck72]

Mackowiak would make sense at 3b for them in a deal involving Linebrink, not Fields. Besides RF, Mack has played the most games at 3b in his career. Remember when he was brought in case Crede's back wasn't OK?

[TheBlackSox8]

That would be a HORRIBLE trade for the Sox.

 

Here are Scott Linebrinks' career stats.

2001 Hou 9 0 0 0 10.1 6 4 3 0 6 9 0 0 0 0 -- 2.61

2002 Hou 22 0 0 0 24.1 31 21 19 2 13 24 0 0 0 1 -- 7.03

2003 Hou 9 6 0 0 31.2 38 15 15 4 14 17 1 1 0 0 -- 4.26

2003 SD 43 0 0 0 60.2 55 22 19 5 22 51 2 1 0 6 -- 2.82

2003 -- 52 6 0 0 92.1 93 37 34 9 36 68 3 2 0 6 -- 3.31

2004 SD 73 0 0 0 84.0 61 22 20 8 26 83 7 3 0 28 5 2.14

2005 SD 73 0 0 0 73.2 55 17 15 4 23 70 8 1 1 26 5 1.83

2006 SD 41 0 0 0 43.2 31 13 13 8 11 43 6 2 1 18 4 2.68

Total -- 281 6 0 0 340.1 295 122 112 35 123 303 24 8 2 79 14 2.96

Here are David Riske's

2001 Cle 26 0 0 0 27.1 20 7 6 3 18 29 2 0 1 3 0 1.98

2002 Cle 51 0 0 0 51.1 49 32 30 8 35 65 2 2 1 5 0 5.26

2003 Cle 68 0 0 0 74.2 52 21 19 9 20 82 2 2 8 17 5 2.29

2004 Cle 72 0 0 0 77.1 69 32 32 11 41 78 7 3 5 9 7 3.72

2005 Cle 58 0 0 0 72.2 55 28 25 11 15 48 3 4 1 0 0 3.10

2006 Bos 8 0 0 0 9.2 8 4 4 2 3 5 0 1 0 0 -- 3.72

2006 CWS 12 0 0 0 12.0 8 2 2 1 7 9 0 1 0 2 -- 1.50

2006 -- 20 0 0 0 21.2 16 6 6 3 10 14 0 2 0 2 -- 2.49

Total -- 307 0 0 0 339.0 281 141 131 47 145 332 17 14 16 36 13 3.48

 

Both players will turn 30 this year, Linebrink in August, Riske in October. I've tossed both players' first year in the league.

 

Given the fact that Riske has played his entire career in the AL versus the much easier league, and ballpark, that Linebrink has been pitching in, it is hard to make a case that Linebrink is that much better than Riske. He looks like basically the same pitcher to me. They both throw mostly fastballs, with some sliders and change ups.

 

So, if David Riske was available for a AAA LOOGY who wasn't making our team anytime soon, then Linebrink isn't worth that much more. Now that's not to say San Diego would take a LOOGY for him, but he's certainly not worth anything close to the guy who may be the Sox best positional prospect.

good point

[jackie hayes]

Good analysis, but Linebrink WILL command a lot more than Riske. Linebrink is coming off 2 phenomenal years, while Riske's coming off a 'merely excellent' year, plus an injury. Plus, over their careers, Linebrink has been better even controlling for league & park. (Although I know some might not believe that, but for those who do...)

[nitetrain8601]

Well you have to look at what Vinny Castilla has done for them at 3B so far this season, he has a sub .600 OPS IIRC, and they don't really have anyone to replace him at this point.

 

So I can definitely see them being interested in Fields, who would fit at Petco because he's a RHH. And he'll be a building block for that offense, because a main problem for them is that they struggle to score runs.

 

Probably a good move by KW to move him while his value is at the highest it has been, if it's what's going to happen.

 

Also Jason, the Sox may be interested in Cesar Carillo possibly, although he's injured ATM. He's got the stuff someone like Flash would like though.

 

Oh if it was Fields for Linebrink and Carillo, I'd piss in my pants because I'd be ecstatic. Carillo has stuff this team needs to develop.

[daa84]

If we were to get Cameron and Linebrink, I would have no problem sticking Cameron in LF for Pods. He K's a ton, but his OBP is about 10 points lower than Pods.

 

Our OF D would also improve by leaps and bounds with Cameron-Anderson-Dye.

i havent seen cameron play in a while, but if his OF defense is where it was 2 years ago (which is unlikely) id have him in center....one of the most unheralded defensive OFers of the last 10 years...in his prime he was just shy of andruw and hunter

Edited July 18, 2006 by daa84

[beck72]

FWIW, Mackowiak has hit very well vs SD the past 3 yrs with splits of .283/.365/.602, going 13 for 46, with 6 2b, and 3 hr's. I don't know how he's hit at their park, though.

 

Mack would be an upgrade over Castilla and Bellhorn at 3b. He wouldn't be enough for Linebrink by himself. But seeing how the NL is like AAAA, a guy like Tracey, Haeger, or Phillips could throw this year for them.

[southsideirish71]

That would be a HORRIBLE trade for the Sox.

 

Here are Scott Linebrinks' career stats.

2001 Hou 9 0 0 0 10.1 6 4 3 0 6 9 0 0 0 0 -- 2.61

2002 Hou 22 0 0 0 24.1 31 21 19 2 13 24 0 0 0 1 -- 7.03

2003 Hou 9 6 0 0 31.2 38 15 15 4 14 17 1 1 0 0 -- 4.26

2003 SD 43 0 0 0 60.2 55 22 19 5 22 51 2 1 0 6 -- 2.82

2003 -- 52 6 0 0 92.1 93 37 34 9 36 68 3 2 0 6 -- 3.31

2004 SD 73 0 0 0 84.0 61 22 20 8 26 83 7 3 0 28 5 2.14

2005 SD 73 0 0 0 73.2 55 17 15 4 23 70 8 1 1 26 5 1.83

2006 SD 41 0 0 0 43.2 31 13 13 8 11 43 6 2 1 18 4 2.68

Total -- 281 6 0 0 340.1 295 122 112 35 123 303 24 8 2 79 14 2.96

Here are David Riske's

2001 Cle 26 0 0 0 27.1 20 7 6 3 18 29 2 0 1 3 0 1.98

2002 Cle 51 0 0 0 51.1 49 32 30 8 35 65 2 2 1 5 0 5.26

2003 Cle 68 0 0 0 74.2 52 21 19 9 20 82 2 2 8 17 5 2.29

2004 Cle 72 0 0 0 77.1 69 32 32 11 41 78 7 3 5 9 7 3.72

2005 Cle 58 0 0 0 72.2 55 28 25 11 15 48 3 4 1 0 0 3.10

2006 Bos 8 0 0 0 9.2 8 4 4 2 3 5 0 1 0 0 -- 3.72

2006 CWS 12 0 0 0 12.0 8 2 2 1 7 9 0 1 0 2 -- 1.50

2006 -- 20 0 0 0 21.2 16 6 6 3 10 14 0 2 0 2 -- 2.49

Total -- 307 0 0 0 339.0 281 141 131 47 145 332 17 14 16 36 13 3.48

 

Both players will turn 30 this year, Linebrink in August, Riske in October. I've tossed both players' first year in the league.

 

Given the fact that Riske has played his entire career in the AL versus the much easier league, and ballpark, that Linebrink has been pitching in, it is hard to make a case that Linebrink is that much better than Riske. He looks like basically the same pitcher to me. They both throw mostly fastballs, with some sliders and change ups.

 

So, if David Riske was available for a AAA LOOGY who wasn't making our team anytime soon, then Linebrink isn't worth that much more. Now that's not to say San Diego would take a LOOGY for him, but he's certainly not worth anything close to the guy who may be the Sox best positional prospect.

 

So put your GM hat on and tell us what you would do, who you would trade for. And if the answer is just to stand pat and hope that all gets better. That really isnt an option. Because outside of your stat model, one of our pitchers mysteriously is throwing a lot less than he has ever in his career. And he isnt building velocity.

 

And remember, Roy Oswalt pitched just as long and just as far as our starters did in the season. He threw 241.2 innings. Yet by some miracle, he still has his velocity. His ERA is up from 2.94 to 3.06. But outside of that his numbers are similiar.

[VAfan]

Good analysis, but Linebrink WILL command a lot more than Riske. Linebrink is coming off 2 phenomenal years, while Riske's coming off a 'merely excellent' year, plus an injury. Plus, over their careers, Linebrink has been better even controlling for league & park. (Although I know some might not believe that, but for those who do...)

 

Sure, San Diego may demand more for him, and get it. But after you factor in pitching in the AL, I think if an AL team gets him, they may be in for a shock. Some guys adjust well. Others less so.

 

I'm all for Linebrink if the price is a minor leaguer of secondary importance. As I said above, I don't think SD will accept that. Still, that's probably all I'd be willing to pay.

 

Plus, Linebrink has 6 years in the league. How soon is he a FA? Is he gone next year? Is that why they're talking about dealing him?

[beck72]

Scott Cameron Linebrink: signed 2-year deal worth 2.275M on 1/14/05- he will make 910K in 2005 and 1.365M in 2006- + the deal includes a Vesting Team Option worth 1.75M or a Buyout worth an unknown amount- + the option can become guaranteed at 1.75M with 100 or more games pitched combined over 2005 and 2006- + the value of the option can rise up to 2.25M with incremental bumps depending on appearances in the first 2 seasons: if he makes more than 150 appearances the option would be guaranteed for a worth of 2.25M

Agent: Service Time: 4.016

 

SD has a "vested team option" for 2007. Sounds like he'll be making a guaranteed $2.25 mill in 2007--he's made/ will make near 150 appearances last yr and this--a raise of nearly $1 mill

Edited July 18, 2006 by beck72

[GoSox05]

yeah but the Padres being in first place is a little different from sayin that Detriot is in first place. There barely over .500 and i bet there big on Josh Fields.

 

Maybe we can trade CLiff politte for Jake Peavy. We could also throw in Boone Logan.

[VAfan]

So put your GM hat on and tell us what you would do, who you would trade for. And if the answer is just to stand pat and hope that all gets better. That really isnt an option. Because outside of your stat model, one of our pitchers mysteriously is throwing a lot less than he has ever in his career. And he isnt building velocity.

 

And remember, Roy Oswalt pitched just as long and just as far as our starters did in the season. He threw 241.2 innings. Yet by some miracle, he still has his velocity. His ERA is up from 2.94 to 3.06. But outside of that his numbers are similiar.

 

One proposed trade I suggested was Javier Vazquez and Scott Podsednik for Tom Gordon and Bobby Abreu, with the possibility of adding a minor league pitcher on our side to get it done.

 

Gordon is and has been a closer for most of his career, and is MUCH better IMHO than Scott Linebrink will ever dream of being. He is also signed for two more years and shows no signs of slowing down. He'd give us a lights-out bullpen. McCarthy would move into the rotation and give us some of the young energy that the Tigers and Twins have. Abreu might be willing to waive his no-trade to play for Ozzie on a World Champion without demanding an extension. As a lead off man, he'd be a vast improvement over Podsednik.

 

This deal would seek to accomplish much of what a Linebrink/Cameron deal would, except that we'd end up with much higher quality players -- Abreu is 3rd in baseball in OBP, and has 19 SBs to only 4 CSs -- who are tied up through at least next year. This kind of trade would give us a chance at back-to-back-to-back WS titles.

 

As for Freddy Garcia, I agree he's an enigma. I suppose you could substitute him for Vazquez in the deal above, but I still trust Garcia a lot more than Vazquez, who has yet to pitch a big game in his life. Garcia has been a money guy -- and was our second best starter last postseason. He was 3-0, and never let the other team have a lead in any of those games, including the 1-0 WS clincher. He's had bad stretches in the past -- remember 2003 with Seattle? -- and come out of it. Maybe he won't this year, but I hold out more hope for that than that Javier Vazquez will ever learn how to win a big game.

Edited July 18, 2006 by VAfan

[Kalapse]

When comparing Riske and Linebrink you must also keep in mind that both have been used in different ways for the past 3 years. Linebrink has been the setup man to Trevor Hoffman meaning for the past few seasons he's been comming in to games in the 8th inning, crunch time and absolutely shutting down his oponents.

 

Riske on the other hand has been more of a middle reliever, comming in to games in the 6th-7th inning and only sparingly in the 8th or 9th. The biggest knock on Riske has been his career pitching in crunch time when he's been known to give up the big HR (*cough*crede*cough*).

 

So you have Linebrink who's one of the premier right handed setup men in all of baseball and on the other you have Riske who's a damn good middle reliever but not much of a late inning guy. I don't really see much of a comparison.

 

Also, it's funny because I brought up a very similar trade to this at the end of the first game thread yesterday and about a month ago too. I'd love to get Linebrink, even if it costs Fields.

[jackie hayes]

Sure, San Diego may demand more for him, and get it. But after you factor in pitching in the AL, I think if an AL team gets him, they may be in for a shock. Some guys adjust well. Others less so.

 

I'm all for Linebrink if the price is a minor leaguer of secondary importance. As I said above, I don't think SD will accept that. Still, that's probably all I'd be willing to pay.

 

Plus, Linebrink has 6 years in the league. How soon is he a FA? Is he gone next year? Is that why they're talking about dealing him?

mlb4u.com sez...that he has a 2007 vesting option that will almost certainly go into effect, if it hasn't already (100 games in 2005 + 2006, combined). But it's pretty cheap, $1.75 mil up to 150 combined appearances, $2.25 if he goes over that. Either way, it increases his trade value.

 

I think we got a bit of a bargain with Riske because we happened to have just what the Sawx were looking for, a young lhp they believed in, when not many teams did, and they have a glut of young pitchers. I just don't think we're likely to run into many deals as lucky as that anytime soon, and using that as a standard is unrealistic. That said, I accept your point that Linebrink is not THAT much better than Riske. I'm just saying, realistically, Fields is closer to the price than Lopez.

 

Scott Cameron Linebrink: signed 2-year deal worth 2.275M on 1/14/05- he will make 910K in 2005 and 1.365M in 2006- + the deal includes a Vesting Team Option worth 1.75M or a Buyout worth an unknown amount- + the option can become guaranteed at 1.75M with 100 or more games pitched combined over 2005 and 2006- + the value of the option can rise up to 2.25M with incremental bumps depending on appearances in the first 2 seasons: if he makes more than 150 appearances the option would be guaranteed for a worth of 2.25M

Agent: Service Time: 4.016

 

SD has a "vested team option" for 2007. Sounds like he'll be making a guaranteed $2.25 mill in 2007--he's made/ will make near 150 appearances last yr and this--a raise of nearly $1 mill

Ach, I'm slow.

[VAfan]

Scott Cameron Linebrink: signed 2-year deal worth 2.275M on 1/14/05- he will make 910K in 2005 and 1.365M in 2006- + the deal includes a Vesting Team Option worth 1.75M or a Buyout worth an unknown amount- + the option can become guaranteed at 1.75M with 100 or more games pitched combined over 2005 and 2006- + the value of the option can rise up to 2.25M with incremental bumps depending on appearances in the first 2 seasons: if he makes more than 150 appearances the option would be guaranteed for a worth of 2.25M

Agent: Service Time: 4.016

 

SD has a "vested team option" for 2007. Sounds like he'll be making a guaranteed $2.25 mill in 2007--he's made/ will make near 150 appearances last yr and this--a raise of nearly $1 mill

 

Well, that's a fair contract price for Linebrink, and the fact he's signed up beyond this year increases his value. Still, I wouldn't be willing to give up anything of real value for him. He's basically David Riske pitching in the easy league in a pitchers ballpark. He'd improve our club, but I don't see him as a critical piece.

[jackie hayes]

When comparing Riske and Linebrink you must also keep in mind that both have been used in different ways for the past 3 years. Linebrink has been the setup man to Trevor Hoffman meaning for the past few seasons he's been comming in to games in the 8th inning, crunch time and absolutely shutting down his oponents.

 

Riske on the other hand has been more of a middle reliever, comming in to games in the 6th-7th inning and only sparingly in the 8th or 9th. The biggest knock on Riske has been his career pitching in crunch time when he's been known to give up the big HR (*cough*crede*cough*).

 

So you have Linebrink who's one of the premier right handed setup men in all of baseball and on the other you have Riske who's a damn good middle reliever but not much of a late inning guy. I don't really see much of a comparison.

 

Also, it's funny because I brought up a very similar trade to this at the end of the first game thread yesterday and about a month ago too. I'd love to get Linebrink, even if it costs Fields.

 

At the sig. Well done.

[southsideirish71]

One proposed trade I suggested was Javier Vazquez and Scott Podsednik for Tom Gordon and Bobby Abreu, with the possibility of adding a minor league pitcher on our side to get it done.

 

Gordon is and has been a closer for most of his career, and is MUCH better IMHO than Scott Linebrink will ever dream of being. He is also signed for two more years and shows no signs of slowing down. He'd give us a lights-out bullpen. McCarthy would move into the rotation and give us some of the young energy that the Tigers and Twins have. Abreu might be willing to waive his no-trade to play for Ozzie on a World Champion without demanding an extension. As a lead off man, he'd be a vast improvement over Podsednik.

 

This deal would seek to accomplish much of what a Linebrink/Cameron deal would, except that we'd end up with much higher quality players -- Abreu is 3rd in baseball in OBP, and has 19 SBs to only 4 CSs -- who are tied up through at least next year. This kind of trade would give us a chance at back-to-back-to-back WS titles.

 

As for Freddy Garcia, I agree he's an enigma. I suppose you could substitute him for Vazquez in the deal above, but I still trust Garcia a lot more than Vazquez, who has yet to pitch a big game in his life. Garcia has been a money guy -- and was our second best starter last postseason. He was 3-0, and never let the other team have a lead in any of those games, including the 1-0 WS clincher. He's had bad stretches in the past -- remember 2003 with Seattle? -- and come out of it. Maybe he won't this year, but I hold out more hope for that than that Javier Vazquez will ever learn how to win a big game.

 

 

All the stuff about the legend of Freddy Garcia must be thrown out with his arm issues. Last year and in all of his years with the sox. On the road, during the day, against a good team was a lock. Now he is getting rocked, why...because an 88 mph fastball is easy to tee off on when it isnt located. The Freddy Garcia who threw the 1-0 game last year doesnt exist this year. If he did, he wouldnt be on the block. Freddy is getting absolutely rocked when he faces half way decent AL teams. Last year, he would pitch great against those teams. Billy Koch threw 100mph, and was an elite closer. Then he lost 6 mph on his fastball and was meat. 94 was still fast enough, however Billy didnt have the control to pitch at 94. The same with Freddy. Sure pitchers can pitch in the 80s in the mlb. But they must have excellent control on the corners. Not just throw it over the plate for a strike. You keep bringing up about how he had bad stretches before. He never ever, ever threw this slow before. Not in a game, not for most of the season. He has always been 91-95. When he faced us in Seattle in 2000 he was mid 90s, all last year he was living 92-94. Now all of a sudden poof his velocity is gone. There is something different this year. So all bets are off.

Edited July 18, 2006 by southsideirish71

[Frankensteiner]

Would the Padres even want Garcia? They're not exactly made of money over there. I guess it could work if they're giving up Cameron's salary although I question why they would want to give up one of their most productive hitters. Garcia's only better than their current pitchers if you think a move to the NL will knock his ERA down by a run.

[nitetrain8601]

All the stuff about the legend of Freddy Garcia must be thrown out with his arm issues. Last year and in all of his years with the sox. On the road, during the day, against a good team was a lock. Now he is getting rocked, why...because an 88 mph fastball is easy to tee off on when it isnt located. The Freddy Garcia who threw the 1-0 game last year doesnt exist this year. If he did, he wouldnt be on the block. Freddy is getting absolutely rocked when he faces half way decent AL teams. Last year, he would pitch great against those teams. Billy Koch threw 100mph, and was an elite closer. Then he lost 6 mph on his fastball and was meat. 94 was still fast enough, however Billy didnt have the control to pitch at 94. The same with Freddy. Sure pitchers can pitch in the 80s in the mlb. But they must have excellent control on the corners. Not just throw it over the plate for a strike. You keep bringing up about how he had bad stretches before. He never ever, ever threw this slow before. Not in a game, not for most of the season. He has always been 91-95. When he faced us in Seattle in 2000 he was mid 90s, all last year he was living 92-94. Now all of a sudden poof his velocity is gone. There is something different this year. So all bets are off.

 

I agree. It's not like Freddy just isn't locating his pitches. He's doing whatever he wants, just not with the velocity he needs to do it with. Loss of velocity means all bets are off.

[beck72]

Josh Fields will not step in and take over 3b for Castilla and Bellhorn. What 1st place team wants to take a huge risk to put a rookie out there? They'll want a vet.

[southsideirish71]

Josh Fields will not step in and take over 3b for Castilla and Bellhorn. What 1st place team wants to take a huge risk to put a rookie out there? They'll want a vet.

 

They might still pick up a vet, a rental. However they need someone that can play long term at that position. They havent had a good prospect with power at third for a long time. Sean Burroughs was guy that never developed power. They are dying for a 3rd base right handed hitting power prospect.

[DBAHO]

Frankly I think the whole switching leagues thing and your ERA will jump is a bit overrated.

 

Scott Linebrink is one of the PREMIER set-up pitchers in all of baseball. He's only what 31 IIRC, so if you traded for him and get him locked up, he should be able to produce over that period of time. His numbers are very good from the past couple of seasons.

 

Antoni Otuska left San Diego, switched teams and league to Texas, and he seems to be doing just fine.

 

Josh Fields will not step in and take over 3b for Castilla and Bellhorn. What 1st place team wants to take a huge risk to put a rookie out there? They'll want a vet.

Atlanta and Jeff Francouer comes to mind.

[VAfan]

When comparing Riske and Linebrink you must also keep in mind that both have been used in different ways for the past 3 years. Linebrink has been the setup man to Trevor Hoffman meaning for the past few seasons he's been comming in to games in the 8th inning, crunch time and absolutely shutting down his oponents.

 

Riske on the other hand has been more of a middle reliever, comming in to games in the 6th-7th inning and only sparingly in the 8th or 9th. The biggest knock on Riske has been his career pitching in crunch time when he's been known to give up the big HR (*cough*crede*cough*).

 

So you have Linebrink who's one of the premier right handed setup men in all of baseball and on the other you have Riske who's a damn good middle reliever but not much of a late inning guy. I don't really see much of a comparison.

 

Also, it's funny because I brought up a very similar trade to this at the end of the first game thread yesterday and about a month ago too. I'd love to get Linebrink, even if it costs Fields.

 

I would agree without even having seen him pitch that Linebrink appears somewhat better. But I would argue that you aren't properly factoring in the NL/AL difference, or the Petco/Cell difference. Add at least .5 to his ERA and then make the case that a 3+ ERA reliever is "absolutely shutting down his opponents." I don't buy it. Linebrink strikes me as overvalued. And, on our team, I'd rate Jenks and Cotts ahead of him. Even Thornton has much more upside. Josh Fields for that? That would be a huge mistake.

[southsideirish71]

Linebrink likes to work up in the zone, with a fastball that runs 94-97 MPH. He'll sink it occasionally, and work in a decent change and splitter to keep hitters from getting on top of it. The result usually is a popup or a lazy flyball. When he needs a strikeout, he'll pitch to the bottom of the zone as well, using his splitter to entice batters to chase. At the plate, he swings hard in case he makes contact. His style of pitching generally takes him out of the play, but he is surehanded when the ball does find him.

 

A splitter is a pitch that seperates him from the David Riske types that were discussed earlier. A good splitter with an overpowering fastball leads to strikeouts.

 

And for all the people making comments that Linebrink is a product of Petco.

 

His home numbers are worse than his away numbers.

 

He has a 3.74 ERA at home. Versus a 1.64 ERA away from home.

 

He is really tough on lefties, .159BAA, righties only bat .243 against him.

Edited July 18, 2006 by southsideirish71

[VAfan]

All the stuff about the legend of Freddy Garcia must be thrown out with his arm issues. Last year and in all of his years with the sox. On the road, during the day, against a good team was a lock. Now he is getting rocked, why...because an 88 mph fastball is easy to tee off on when it isnt located. The Freddy Garcia who threw the 1-0 game last year doesnt exist this year. If he did, he wouldnt be on the block. Freddy is getting absolutely rocked when he faces half way decent AL teams. Last year, he would pitch great against those teams. Billy Koch threw 100mph, and was an elite closer. Then he lost 6 mph on his fastball and was meat. 94 was still fast enough, however Billy didnt have the control to pitch at 94. The same with Freddy. Sure pitchers can pitch in the 80s in the mlb. But they must have excellent control on the corners. Not just throw it over the plate for a strike. You keep bringing up about how he had bad stretches before. He never ever, ever threw this slow before. Not in a game, not for most of the season. He has always been 91-95. When he faced us in Seattle in 2000 he was mid 90s, all last year he was living 92-94. Now all of a sudden poof his velocity is gone. There is something different this year. So all bets are off.

 

Well, you may be right. I don't get to see enough live games to judge his velocity. And I can't attest to him having good velocity when he was getting rocked in Seattle. But just because he has a dead arm at the moment doesn't mean he's done for his career. If he is able to revive his arm -- maybe a DL stint is necessary -- all I'm saying is he's a much better big game bet than Javier Vazquez - even with a dead arm.

 

BTW - How did he win the 1-0 game against the Cardinals this year?

[Kalapse]

I would agree without even having seen him pitch that Linebrink appears somewhat better. But I would argue that you aren't properly factoring in the NL/AL difference, or the Petco/Cell difference. Add at least .5 to his ERA and then make the case that a 3+ ERA reliever is "absolutely shutting down his opponents." I don't buy it. Linebrink strikes me as overvalued. And, on our team, I'd rate Jenks and Cotts ahead of him. Even Thornton has much more upside. Josh Fields for that? That would be a huge mistake.

You've never even seen the guy pitch, you've possibly never even heard of him until recently, how in gods name can you make statements like this?

 

In '04 Linebrink posted a 187 ERA+ and in '05 it was 210. I'm sure you're not entirely familiar with this stat so I'll give you a quick idea as to what it means. ERA+ is the ratio of the league's ERA (adjusted to the pitcher's ballpark) to that of the pitcher. Above 100 is above average and below 100 is below average. So ERA+ Factors out the ballpark a pitcher throws in.

 

Just for comparisons sake, Tom Gordon put up a 204 ERA+ and 173 last year. Cotts had a 229 last year, and Politte; 222. So in other words Linebrink pitches consistantly the way the Sox relievers pitched last year.