ESPN Report: Kenny Looking at Scott Linebrink

[southsideirish71]

Well, you may be right. I don't get to see enough live games to judge his velocity. And I can't attest to him having good velocity when he was getting rocked in Seattle. But just because he has a dead arm at the moment doesn't mean he's done for his career. If he is able to revive his arm -- maybe a DL stint is necessary -- all I'm saying is he's a much better big game bet than Javier Vazquez - even with a dead arm.

 

BTW - How did he win the 1-0 game against the Cardinals this year?

 

The same Cardinals that were destroyed by every single AL Central team that it met. Lets not use a team from the NL to compare how great Freddy has done this year.

 

If a simple DL visit would fix Freddys arm, with Bmac ready to go. Dont you think they would of DLed him already. He has had the dead arm all year long. Not just lately.

 

If you feel comfortable will having Freddy and his 86-88 mph fastball run in the playoffs because he pitched well in 2005, I think you are taking blind faith a bit far. Last year when El Duque was below 90 he would get rocked. Then we would DL him, he would regain some velocity and then would be okay. Above 90 El Duque could get people out, below 90 he was meat. Now El Duque is old, and has had numerous documented arm problems. Freddy is younger, and hasnt had any arm issues. Freddy cannot pitch succesfully below 90 unless he learns how to paint the black with his pitches.

[VAfan]

A splitter is a pitch that seperates him from the David Riske types that were discussed earlier. A good splitter with an overpowering fastball leads to strikeouts.

 

And for all the people making comments that Linebrink is a product of Petco.

 

His home numbers are worse than his away numbers.

 

He has a 3.74 ERA at home. Versus a 1.64 ERA away from home.

 

He is really tough on lefties, .159BAA, righties only bat .243 against him.

 

What happens to him when patient AL teams like Boston and the Yankees don't bite on his splitter, which I assume falls out of the zone? If he's so great, his production ought to be better.

 

But, not to be misunderstood. I'd take him. Just not for anything like Josh Fields.

[Kalapse]

BTW - How did he win the 1-0 game against the Cardinals this year?

Well, this might have something to do with it:

 

Eckstein, SS

Taguchi, CF

Pujols, 1B (first game back off the DL, looked pathetic.)

Rolen, 3B

Encarnacion, RF

Perez, T, DH

Luna, LF

Molina, C

Miles, 2B

 

Heager could have shut down this lineup.

[southsideirish71]

What happens to him when patient AL teams like Boston and the Yankees don't bite on his splitter, which I assume falls out of the zone? If he's so great, his production ought to be better.

 

But, not to be misunderstood. I'd take him. Just not for anything like Josh Fields.

 

Even patient teams have a hard time distinguishing from a 0-2 fastball on the corner at 95 and a splitter that starts out on the outside corner at 91. Outside of Jenks and Thornton none of our relievers have true strikeout stuff. They are contact pitchers who pitch to an advange of getting ahead and letting our defense do the rest.

 

You realize that Josh Fields is playing in a bandbox right. The same bandbox that inflated the Jeremy Reeds who looked like world beaters. I think Josh is a fine prospect. But I think he is at an alltime high and with Crede under control for a while the more we can get, the better. I dont see him as a .320 hitter in the majors. Remember also we have dumped a lot of prospects considered much better than fields.

[iamshack]

Well, this might have something to do with it:

 

Eckstein, SS

Taguchi, CF

Pujols, 1B (first game back off the DL, looked pathetic.)

Rolen, 3B

Encarnacion, RF

Perez, T, DH

Luna, LF

Molina, C

Miles, 2B

 

Heager could have shut down this lineup.

 

That's bs man. You throw a 8 IP shutout in the big leagues that's pretty damn impressive, I don't give a s*** what lineup it was. Pujols admitted his timing was off, but he still hit a few balls very hard but right at people.

 

He's been bad. There is no getting around that. But s*** gets out of hand around here sometimes...

[VAfan]

You've never even seen the guy pitch, you've possibly never even heard of him until recently, how in gods name can you make statements like this?

 

In '04 Linebrink posted a 187 ERA+ and in '05 it was 210. I'm sure you're not entirely familiar with this stat so I'll give you a quick idea as to what it means. ERA+ is the ratio of the league's ERA (adjusted to the pitcher's ballpark) to that of the pitcher. Above 100 is above average and below 100 is below average. So ERA+ Factors out the ballpark a pitcher throws in.

 

Just for comparisons sake, Tom Gordon put up a 204 ERA+ and 173 last year. Cotts had a 229 last year, and Politte; 222. So in other words Linebrink pitches consistantly the way the Sox relievers pitched last year.

 

So, in other words, you would agree that he'd be, at best, the third best pitcher in our bullpen, behind Jenks and Cotts, based on ERA+? (Which is exactly what I said.) Or is Jenks' ERA+ actually lower than Linebrinks? I bet it is. Which illustrates why that stat is not all that it is cracked up to be. I assume you wouldn't supplant Bobby Jenks with Scott Linebrink??

 

But just to be clear about this, I probably wouldn't trade Josh Fields for Neal Cotts, and I think VERY highly of Neal Cotts. (Maybe Fields will be a bust, but the way he's come on in AAA after posting so-so AA stats indicates to me the guy could be a star. And any everyday player who is above league average is worth more than a set-up bullpen guy.) I'm not averse to adding Linebrink (though I still think Gordon is better). Just not at the price some guys were suggesting.

[RockRaines]

I dont see him as a .320 hitter in the majors. Remember also we have dumped a lot of prospects considered much better than fields.

Ding ding ding. Overall, in the minor leagues Crede was a better player at the same age. However Fields is putting up impressive numbers considering.

 

His .407 OBP .965 OPS is very impressive. Jeremy Reed wasnt even close to that. Joe Borchard never sniffed that. But both were considered better spects than Fields at their times.

[southsideirish71]

So, in other words, you would agree that he'd be, at best, the third best pitcher in our bullpen, behind Jenks and Cotts, based on ERA+? (Which is exactly what I said.) Or is Jenks' ERA+ actually lower than Linebrinks? I bet it is. Which illustrates why that stat is not all that it is cracked up to be. I assume you wouldn't supplant Bobby Jenks with Scott Linebrink??

 

But just to be clear about this, I probably wouldn't trade Josh Fields for Neal Cotts, and I think VERY highly of Neal Cotts. (Maybe Fields will be a bust, but the way he's come on in AAA after posting so-so AA stats indicates to me the guy could be a star. And any everyday player who is above league average is worth more than a set-up bullpen guy.) I'm not averse to adding Linebrink (though I still think Gordon is better). Just not at the price some guys were suggesting.

 

 

So who would you trade Fields for. Would Santana or Liriano pry him away from you.

 

Lets be realistic on our prospects. He hasnt played a lick of major league ball and you are ready to veto a trade for a dominant reliever because you a projecting someones worth. You realize that we have a 3rd baseman already. And as much as we have talked about moving him to LF. His largest value is at 3rd. We have traded prospects that are considered much better than Fields with a much higher ceiling.

[RockRaines]

So who would you trade Fields for. Would Santana or Liriano pry him away from you.

 

Lets be realistic on our prospects. He hasnt played a lick of major league ball and you are ready to veto a trade for a dominant reliever because you a projecting someones worth. You realize that we have a 3rd baseman already. And as much as we have talked about moving him to LF. His largest value is at 3rd. We have traded prospects that are considered much better than Fields with a much higher ceiling.

He is pretty young. Would I really feel great trading him for a reliever? Considering the hot/cold tendencies of a reliever (polite, shingo, foulke, koch, etc, etc) I would think you could get better value from our top prospect. And believe me, he is our top prospect.

[jackie hayes]

He is pretty young. Would I really feel great trading him for a reliever? Considering the hot/cold tendencies of a reliever (polite, shingo, foulke, koch, etc, etc) I would think you could get better value from our top prospect. And believe me, he is our top prospect.

Well said. Honest question -- we've traded better prospects for sp and Jim Thome. Have we traded as good a prospect for a rp?

[VAfan]

Even patient teams have a hard time distinguishing from a 0-2 fastball on the corner at 95 and a splitter that starts out on the outside corner at 91. Outside of Jenks and Thornton none of our relievers have true strikeout stuff. They are contact pitchers who pitch to an advange of getting ahead and letting our defense do the rest.

 

You realize that Josh Fields is playing in a bandbox right. The same bandbox that inflated the Jeremy Reeds who looked like world beaters. I think Josh is a fine prospect. But I think he is at an alltime high and with Crede under control for a while the more we can get, the better. I dont see him as a .320 hitter in the majors. Remember also we have dumped a lot of prospects considered much better than fields.

 

I realize Fields is playing in a bandbox. But, even so, he appears to have made a huge improvement from AA (which I know is a pitchers park). Did you expect him to hit this well at the start of the season? I didn't. I thought it would be two years before he'd be putting up any kind of pre-major league numbers.

 

I like Fields for a few reasons. First, the speed at which he has improved suggests his upside may be higher than a lot of people thought it would be at the start of the year. Second, he has value to us. Pods isn't going to last much longer in LF, and if we don't sign Crede long term soon, Boras will price him beyond our means when FA comes in a few years. Do we have any other prospect in our system capable of stepping into LF or 3B in the foreseeable future? Third, whether Fields ever plays for us, he appears at this point to be very likely to become an above-average major league positional player, and has some small chance of being a star. I just think those guys are worth more than 30-year-old set up men -- even good 30-year-old set up men.

 

I'll say this in closing, because I've said enough on this post. I trust KW's judgment on this. KW often overpays a bit to get his guy. If he's willing to send Josh Fields for Scott Linebrink, then fine. I just doubt he'd be willing to make that trade.

 

As for the side debate about Freddy Garcia, I think we're all guessing. If the Sox could fix him, I'm sure they would. But I also don't think they're ready to just chuck him overboard. I think we're more than likely going to have to live with him for a while longer, for better or worse.

[Kalapse]

So, in other words, you would agree that he'd be, at best, the third best pitcher in our bullpen, behind Jenks and Cotts, based on ERA+? (Which is exactly what I said.) Or is Jenks' ERA+ actually lower than Linebrinks? I bet it is. Which illustrates why that stat is not all that it is cracked up to be. I assume you wouldn't supplant Bobby Jenks with Scott Linebrink??

 

But just to be clear about this, I probably wouldn't trade Josh Fields for Neal Cotts, and I think VERY highly of Neal Cotts. (Maybe Fields will be a bust, but the way he's come on in AAA after posting so-so AA stats indicates to me the guy could be a star. And any everyday player who is above league average is worth more than a set-up bullpen guy.) I'm not averse to adding Linebrink (though I still think Gordon is better). Just not at the price some guys were suggesting.

Neal Cotts, if he pitches the way he did last year consistantly in the future will have insane trade value and value to this team. A dominant lefty setup man is nearly impossible to find and the Sox could possibly have 2. It is interesting that you're able to carry on a conversation with yourself like you did in the second part of you post so I'll move on.

 

If the Sox were able to acquire a top 3-5 righty setup man in baseball like Scott Linebrink it would improve this team to an insane degree. You seem to love Jenks and Cotts which is cool and all but Linebrink has proven WAY more than those two have, Jenks doesn't even have a full season under his belt and on the Cotts front, in many people's eyes he didn't even have a place on this team in the beginning of '05. This team could set themselves up for a huge run by acquiring Linebrink just think about it:

 

6th/7th: R: Riske L: Thornton

8th/9th: R: Linebrink L: Cotts

Closer: Jenks

 

With McCarthy who is arguably this team's 2nd/3rd best starting pitcher right now moving back into the rotation and Garcia being shipped out for another piece.

 

I know you've never seen Linebrink pitch before so this might not mean a whole hell of a lot to you but to those who have seen the man pitch (sans Fathom) they know how exciting the idea of this bullpen alignment is.

[jackie hayes]

Third, whether Fields ever plays for us, he appears at this point to be very likely to become an above-average major league positional player, and has some small chance of being a star. I just think those guys are worth more than 30-year-old set up men -- even good 30-year-old set up men.

Ehh...a good chance, okay. But not "very likely". We're still talking about half a season here, in the minors. Don't oversell it.

[VAfan]

He is pretty young. Would I really feel great trading him for a reliever? Considering the hot/cold tendencies of a reliever (polite, shingo, foulke, koch, etc, etc) I would think you could get better value from our top prospect. And believe me, he is our top prospect.

 

Well said.

[iamshack]

Well said. Honest question -- we've traded better prospects for sp and Jim Thome. Have we traded as good a prospect for a rp?

 

The last time we dealt anything of value at all for an rp was the Foulke for Koch deal. As poorly as that worked out for us at the time, Neal Cotts was a ptbnl in that deal.

[VAfan]

Ehh...a good chance, okay. But not "very likely". We're still talking about half a season here, in the minors. Don't oversell it.

 

Well, I changed those very words before posting. I can live with "a good chance." Even at that level, he's worth more to me than a 30-year-old set up guy with 1 year left on his contract.

[iamshack]

Neal Cotts, if he pitches the way he did last year consistantly in the future will have insane trade value and value to this team. A dominant lefty setup man is nearly impossible to find and the Sox could possibly have 2. It is interesting that you're able to carry on a conversation with yourself like you did in the second part of you post so I'll move on.

 

If the Sox were able to acquire a top 3-5 righty setup man in baseball like Scott Linebrink it would improve this team to an insane degree. You seem to love Jenks and Cotts which is cool and all but Linebrink has proven WAY more than those two have, Jenks doesn't even have a full season under his belt and on the Cotts front, in many people's eyes he didn't even have a place on this team in the beginning of '05. This team could set themselves up for a huge run by acquiring Linebrink just think about it:

 

6th/7th: R: Riske L: Thornton

8th/9th: R: Linebrink L: Cotts

Closer: Jenks

 

With McCarthy who is arguably this team's 2nd/3rd best starting pitcher right now moving back into the rotation and Garcia being shipped out for another piece.

 

I know you've never seen Linebrink pitch before so this might not mean a whole hell of a lot to you but to those who have seen the man pitch (sans Fathom) they know how exciting the idea of this bullpen alignment is.

 

I agree it would be great and all to have him, especially considering he is one of the 30 or 40 relievers that actually has a history of being successful year after year, but that doesn't mean he is worthy of throwing our best position prospect at the Padres. KW has shown a history of being creative in acquiring our rp. I could see him going after a guy like Linebrink that he likes- supposedly he was after Flash Gordon last year as well- but I don't see him willing to give up Fields after his other relief coups the last few years.

Edited July 18, 2006 by iamshack

[Kalapse]

Well, I changed those very words before posting. I can live with "a good chance." Even at that level, he's worth more to me than a 30-year-old set up guy with 1 year left on his contract.

A 30 year old top 5 righty setup guy who could push this team over the top And what's the problem with him only having a year left on his deal? The Sox have money, if he kicks ass for the next year and a half like he has for the past 2 and a half, I'm sure the Sox will lock him up. The last thing I'm worried about is '08. Also, who ever said the deal was Fields for Linebrink straight up? It doesn't necessarily have to be that cut and dry.

[iamshack]

A 30 year old top 5 righty setup guy who could push this team over the top And what's the problem with him only having a year left on his deal? The Sox have money, if he kicks ass for the next year and a half like he has for the past 2 and a half, I'm sure the Sox will lock him up. The last thing I'm worried about is '08. Also, who ever said the deal was Fields for Linebrink straight up? It doesn't necessarily have to be that cut and dry.

 

Kalapse...question....I know we have been known to like Cesar Carrillo, as others have mentioned in this thread. I also know they may be shutting him down for the remainder of the season. If that was the case, could he indeed be traded still?

[SadChiSoxFanOptimist]

i havent seen cameron play in a while, but if his OF defense is where it was 2 years ago (which is unlikely) id have him in center....one of the most unheralded defensive OFers of the last 10 years...in his prime he was just shy of andruw and hunter

 

I completely agree. The game I watched Linebrink against Atlanta, Cameron just OWNED center field. He moves like a gazelle with a rocket pack, sprinting effortlessly to catch up to balls and steal hits. He'd help Dye who, although an adequate RF, doesn't seem to move real well...

 

I'd put Anderson in LF, with Gooch leading off.

 

It would be a plus OF.

[3E8]

He moves like a gazelle with a rocket pack

That analogy is money.

[jackie hayes]

I completely agree. The game I watched Linebrink against Atlanta, Cameron just OWNED center field. He moves like a gazelle with a rocket pack...

[VAfan]

Neal Cotts, if he pitches the way he did last year consistantly in the future will have insane trade value and value to this team. A dominant lefty setup man is nearly impossible to find and the Sox could possibly have 2. It is interesting that you're able to carry on a conversation with yourself like you did in the second part of you post so I'll move on.

 

If the Sox were able to acquire a top 3-5 righty setup man in baseball like Scott Linebrink it would improve this team to an insane degree. You seem to love Jenks and Cotts which is cool and all but Linebrink has proven WAY more than those two have, Jenks doesn't even have a full season under his belt and on the Cotts front, in many people's eyes he didn't even have a place on this team in the beginning of '05. This team could set themselves up for a huge run by acquiring Linebrink just think about it:

 

6th/7th: R: Riske L: Thornton

8th/9th: R: Linebrink L: Cotts

Closer: Jenks

 

With McCarthy who is arguably this team's 2nd/3rd best starting pitcher right now moving back into the rotation and Garcia being shipped out for another piece.

 

I know you've never seen Linebrink pitch before so this might not mean a whole hell of a lot to you but to those who have seen the man pitch (sans Fathom) they know how exciting the idea of this bullpen alignment is.

 

Since you are apparently a stats guy, if the guy's so fabulous, why does his career line look so much like David Riske's?

 

Total -- 281 6 0 0 340.1 295 122 112 35 123 303 24 8 2 79 14 2.96

Total -- 307 0 0 0 339.0 281 141 131 47 145 332 17 14 16 36 13 3.48

 

Which of these two stat lines is better? Especially when one is all NL, and the other is all AL?

 

The main thing Linebrink has on Riske is fewer gopher balls, which likely accounts for the difference in runs allowed and ERA. But at least some of that difference would be lessened by park and league adjustments. Otherwise, the WHIPs are essentially identical. Again, I'd take Linebrink over Riske too. I just wouldn't mortgage the farm to get him.

[fathom]

A couple of thoughts:

- Joe Crede will be the Sox 3rd baseman for the next 5 years.

- Josh Fields' stock is never going to be higher.

- Josh Fields greatest asset to the Sox organization will be as a trade chip. I don't believe we'll ever see him with the White Sox at the big league level.

- Personally, I'd rather get someone a little better for our long-term future than Linebrink. For everyone saying he's be easier to re-sign, have you forgotten the insane contracts that were signed by middle relievers this off-season? I don't want to have to offer him a 3/15 deal.

[Kalapse]

Since you are apparently a stats guy, if the guy's so fabulous, why does his career line look so much like David Riske's?

 

Total -- 281 6 0 0 340.1 295 122 112 35 123 303 24 8 2 79 14 2.96

Total -- 307 0 0 0 339.0 281 141 131 47 145 332 17 14 16 36 13 3.48

 

Which of these two stat lines is better? Especially when one is all NL, and the other is all AL?

 

The main thing Linebrink has on Riske is fewer gopher balls, which likely accounts for the difference in runs allowed and ERA. But at least some of that difference would be lessened by park and league adjustments. Otherwise, the WHIPs are essentially identical. Again, I'd take Linebrink over Riske too. I just wouldn't mortgage the farm to get him.

Riske = 6th/7th inning

Linebrink = 8th/9th inning

 

It's pretty much as simple as that, it's easier to pitch in middle relief than it is in setup duty.

 

Plus when you're looking at relief pitchers it's best to break them down year by year and look at what they've done recently because they're so inconsitent and it takes some longer to become great. Linebrink was used speradically in Houston and didn't really put up great numbers there but since comming to San Diego he's been lights out both at home and on the road.