2006 Congressional Elections Thread

[Rex Kickass]

Various polls out this week

 

Congress - IN-02 (South Bend/Michigan City)

Chocola (R, Incumbent) 38

Donnelly (D) 48

 

Arizona Senate

Kyl (R, Incumbent) 52

Pederson (D) 40

 

RI Senate Primary (GOP) (Poll is from June)

Chafee (R, Incumbent) 39

Laffey ® 38

 

RI Senate General

Chafee (R, Incumbent) 41

Whitehouse (D) 46

 

Laffey ® 29

Whitehouse (D) 57

 

Angelina Jolie Job Performance (Thanks Rasmussen Reporting!)

Approve: 46%

Disapprove: 30%

[KipWellsFan]

No polls, but I've got a few questions for you aficionados.

 

-Is this Harold Ford Jr. guy going to win?

 

-Isn't Jimmy Carter's son running? Does he have a chance?

 

-Do Democrats have any chance at winning back the Senate?

[NorthSideSox72]

No polls, but I've got a few questions for you aficionados.

 

-Is this Harold Ford Jr. guy going to win?

 

-Isn't Jimmy Carter's son running? Does he have a chance?

 

-Do Democrats have any chance at winning back the Senate?

I'll comment on two of those...

 

1. Never underestimate the ability of the Memphis Ford clan to win office. They are very powerful down there. Heck, some of them get elected to various offices despite a wide array of blatant, well-publicized scandals. And Harold Jr. is much more well-spoken and respected than most of that family.

 

2. I think the Dems have a CHANCE of winning the Senate, yes. But its close enough that I'd say we won't have a good idea until just before election time, because I have a strong feeling that things will happen in September and/or October that change the landscape. Either the GOP machine will create a few major issues, or some world event(s) will change American attitudes. Could go either way. But I will say that, more than likely, both houses will be very close to even-split when its all over.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

I'll comment on two of those...

 

1. Never underestimate the ability of the Memphis Ford clan to win office. They are very powerful down there. Heck, some of them get elected to various offices despite a wide array of blatant, well-publicized scandals. And Harold Jr. is much more well-spoken and respected than most of that family.

 

2. I think the Dems have a CHANCE of winning the Senate, yes. But its close enough that I'd say we won't have a good idea until just before election time, because I have a strong feeling that things will happen in September and/or October that change the landscape. Either the GOP machine will create a few major issues, or some world event(s) will change American attitudes. Could go either way. But I will say that, more than likely, both houses will be very close to even-split when its all over.

 

 

I think if the Dems have a chance to win anything this time around it's the house. Its REALLY hard to overcome a 10 seat deficit in the Senate in one sitting.

[Rex Kickass]

Senator Mike DeWine ® running for re-election in a difficult environment in Ohio used an ad depicting 9/11 to portray his Democratic challenger in a negative ad.

 

Turns out his pictures of the twin towers were doctored.

 

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles.../19dewinead.htm

 

The controversial video of the burning World Trade Center towers in a television campaign ad for Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine is doctored, U.S. News has learned. The television spot, which has been lambasted by critics as a political exploitation of the Sept. 11, attacks Democrat challenger Rep. Sherrod Brown for being weak on national security.

 

On the air in major Ohio markets since last Friday, the ad shows the towers, with the south building billowing smoke, which gradually drifts upward. In the video, the north tower, which was struck first on September 11, is undamaged.

 

"This particular image is impossible," says W. Gene Corley, a stuctural engineer who led FEMA's building performance study on the World Trade Center after the 9/11 attacks. Corley reviewed the ad atwww.brownvotes.com for U.S. News. "The north tower was hit first [so] the south tower could not be burning without the North Tower burning." Corley also says, "the smoke is all wrong." The day of the attacks, the plumes of ash were drifting to the southeast. "The smoke on 9/11 was never in a halo like that," Corley says.

 

Cop slapper Democrat Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney is in a tight primary battle for her seat. (McKinney has not announced her intention to run as an independent if defeated in the primary.)

 

The first primary round is over, and no candidate got 50%, so a run off between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary on August 8th.

 

John F. Coyne, III 5,249 8.5%

Henry C. "Hank" Johnson, Jr. 27,496 44.4%

Cynthia McKinney 29,143 47.1%

 

NJ Senate

 

Menendez (D, Incumbent) 38%

Kean ® 37%

 

Menendez replaced Jon Corzine when he became governor.

[Balta1701]

It just got interesting.

 

Businessman Ned Lamont had support from 51 percent and Lieberman from 47 percent of likely Democratic voters in the latest Quinnipiac University poll -- a slight Lamont lead given the survey's sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

 

Lieberman had led in a Quinnipiac poll last month, 55 percent to 40 percent.

 

The new poll suggests that Lieberman still could win a fourth term, even if he loses the Democratic primary Aug. 8, however.

 

Lieberman filed papers last week that will allow him to petition his way onto the November ballot. The poll found that among all registered Connecticut voters surveyed, including non-Democrats, Lieberman had the support of 51 percent, followed by Lamont with 27 percent and Republican Alan Schlesinger with 9 percent.

 

The telephone survey of 2,502 registered voters, 653 of them likely Democratic voters, was conducted July 13-18. The margin of error for the overall survey was plus or minus 2 percentage points.

[Balta1701]

Senator Mike DeWine ® running for re-election in a difficult environment in Ohio used an ad depicting 9/11 to portray his Democratic challenger in a negative ad.

 

Turns out his pictures of the twin towers were doctored.

 

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles.../19dewinead.htm

Interesting side note...the ad was prepared by the same group that did the Swift Boat Vets for Truth ads.

[Rex Kickass]

BTW: I think the general election polls with a three way race are pretty meaningless at this point. With Lamont getting basically full support from the party as a standard bearer, Lieberman's poll numbers would tank as an independent without support.

[BHAMBARONS]

KTTK poll here in Phoenix shows Kyl leading by just 6. And if Kyl is looking for Bush to help him out he might be in trouble Bush only has a 39% approval rating.

[minors]

No polls, but I've got a few questions for you aficionados.

 

-Is this Harold Ford Jr. guy going to win?

 

 

No Ford has no chance here in Tennessee he is holding steady now but when the Republicans vote in mayor Cooker and he can focus on Ford's record which is shaky at best.

[NorthSideSox72]

No Ford has no chance here in Tennessee he is holding steady now but when the Republicans vote in mayor Cooker and he can focus on Ford's record which is shaky at best.

I thought you lived in Tennessee?

 

I think maybe you are confusing hope with reality. If you do indeed live in TN, you know that pretty much every Ford who runs for office, no matter how "shaky", wins. Its a reality of life for them. And Harold Jr is considered the chosen son of the family, so you can bet he'll win again.

[minors]

I thought you lived in Tennessee?

 

I think maybe you are confusing hope with reality. If you do indeed live in TN, you know that pretty much every Ford who runs for office, no matter how "shaky", wins. Its a reality of life for them. And Harold Jr is considered the chosen son of the family, so you can bet he'll win again.

 

 

Cooker has his own machine and with Tennessee being a very red state and with the uber popular Frist endoresment Cooker will have no problem beating Ford. Ford owns Memphis but Cooker owns east and central Tennessee and that will give him the win.

[Heads22]

I'm looking forward to the district 1 race here in Iowa. It's Nussle's vacated seat with two guys coming out of close primaries.

[Rex Kickass]

Rasmussen Reports

CT Senator Primary

Lamont - 51

Lieberman - 41

 

CT Senator General

Lamont - 40

Lieberman - 40

The Republican Guy - 13

[KipWellsFan]

Any chance that psycho Jean Schmidt's going to lose?

[southsider2k5]

I thought you lived in Tennessee?

 

I think maybe you are confusing hope with reality. If you do indeed live in TN, you know that pretty much every Ford who runs for office, no matter how "shaky", wins. Its a reality of life for them. And Harold Jr is considered the chosen son of the family, so you can bet he'll win again.

 

Ford is an interesting guy... They just had a write up on him yesterday in the Chicago Trib.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainmen...1,3391658.story

 

For the South, Harold Ford's candidacy could make history

 

By Peter Wallsten

 

 

SMITHVILLE, Tenn. -- The locals showed up by the dozens, a few in denim overalls, others wearing plaid shirts and hats emblazoned with "Army" and "John Deere." They sat on wooden benches beneath a picnic shelter adorned with red, white and blue bunting, sipping iced tea and downing spicy pulled pork sandwiches.

 

But on this muggy evening in rural middle Tennessee, the predictable conventions of a small-town political rally in the South ended there.

 

Addressing the sea of 200 white faces was a black man. And the crowd sat in rapt attention, interrupting with frequent applause.

 

Yes, Harold Ford conceded: He is a black Democratic congressman from liberal Memphis, the gritty, turbulent city where his family name is associated with machine politics. But Ford argued that the old labels do not apply -- not to this centrist, pro-war, anti-gay-marriage, deficit hawk of a social conservative who once criticized former President Clinton for lying about infidelity and mounted a challenge to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) by calling her "too liberal."

 

And even as he warns of race-baiting to come, Ford drops subtle hints that his ethnicity could prove an unlikely advantage at a time when voters want change.

 

"When they tell you that he's too young, and he's not from around here, and he's from Memphis, and he looks a little differently," Ford said in Smithville, "you should remind them that every single one of those big problems up there that's been caused in Washington, all that spending that takes place, there weren't many guys who looked like me that created any of those problems."

 

The scene that night has become typical as Ford attempts a feat never before achieved: becoming the first black U.S. senator from the former Confederacy since Reconstruction. The seat he hopes to take is being vacated by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, whose departure is not supposed to create a successful race for Democrats.

 

Ford and his strategists have studied the harsh precedents: the failed Senate candidacies in 1990 of Harvey Gantt in North Carolina and in 2002 of Ron Kirk in Texas, two states still colored by racial fault lines.

 

Ford and his team feel they are forging a different path.

 

He is only 36, but his style and ideology were formed long after the civil rights movement that shaped the liberal views of his father, former Rep. Harold E. Ford Sr., whose congressional seat he took over 10 years ago. As he spoke in Smithville about high gas prices, out-of-control government deficits, his wish that the U.S. had sent more troops to Iraq from the start, sealing the border with Mexico, even his support for school prayer, Ford's strategy was clear: to preempt the old labels by adopting new ones more befitting a Bubba.

 

Ford's campaign could make history on multiple levels.

 

It could help Democrats counteract the decades-old Republican Southern strategy that used race to mobilize white voters.

 

Democrats could benefit

 

And, even as Ford hopes to win by seemingly running against much of what his party stands for, his election could help Democrats retake the Senate. None of the three Republicans in the Aug. 3 primary -- two former congressmen and a businessman -- is the heir apparent.

 

Ford's candidacy is also a counterbalance as Republicans seek inroads among black voters with African-American candidates for high offices in Ohio, Maryland and Pennsylvania. A racially charged campaign in Tennessee could hurt that effort and undercut last year's acknowledgment by the GOP chairman that the Southern strategy was "wrong."

 

Ford and his strategists have been laying plans should race -- or the kinds of racial codes that marked other campaigns, including charges of being too liberal -- emerge in the fall.

 

The campaign has produced several mock attack ads with racially coded references that opponents might make to Ford's family and the "Memphis political machine," tested them on focus groups and produced response ads that cast Ford as calm and moderate.

 

Still, race is not Ford's only potential vulnerability. Republicans are already caricaturing a lifestyle replete with high-priced suits, pedicures, posh dinners, Starbucks macchiatos and five-star hotel stays. The Republican Party created a Web site, www.fancyford.com, to parody his upscale tastes.

 

The travails of Ford's family have not helped, either. His uncle, former Democratic state Sen. John Ford, has been charged with bribery, while his father was investigated for corruption but never charged.

 

"His biggest problem is that he's a Ford," said Glenn Reynolds, a University of Tennessee law professor who publishes the blog InstaPundit.com. "It's a branding problem for him."

 

Ford is not waiting for the attacks and invokes his family's troubles at every opportunity.

 

"Anybody who has a recipe for family ought to send it to me. Otherwise, be quiet," he said as the Smithville audience, surprised, murmured in approval.

 

Targets conservative voters

 

But, if he has any hope of winning, the most important task for Ford is to convince enough conservative whites that they can relate to him -- and even agree with him. He will need that a massive turnout in urban black neighborhoods in and around Memphis.

 

Already, Ford's campaign has aired several statewide television advertisements designed to appeal to traditionally conservative voters -- attacking Bush for the deal to let a Dubai firm manage U.S. ports, assailing gas prices and supporting troops serving in Iraq. The gas ad showed Ford by an SUV, lest anyone mistake him for a radical environmentalist, as banjo music jangles in the background.

 

Ford also paints himself as almost non-partisan. He brags of his run against Pelosi after the party's abysmal performance in the 2002 elections. And he praises the president.

 

"A lot of people in my party get angry when I say this," Ford says often. "But I think President Bush is a good guy, and I think he means well."

 

Although he voted last week against a Republican resolution supporting the president's policies in Iraq, Ford still boasts of his early support for the war and his four visits to Iraq.

 

What's more, Ford voted in favor of the Republican-backed House legislation that made illegal immigration a felony. That vote puts him to the right of Bush, who backs a Senate bill that Ford calls "too close to amnesty" for "lawbreakers."

 

Ford has distanced himself from national Democrats on faith, saying they sometimes sound "almost opposed to religion." He heads a faith-based caucus of lawmakers who support using government money for church-based social service programs.

 

In 2004, Ford hosted Bush's top adviser on faith-based issues, allowing him to be seen with some of the more conservative black pastors emerging as a potent force in both parties.

 

"There aren't too many African-American Democrats inviting Bush White House officials to their district," said Jim Towey, former head of the faith-based office.

 

Some analysts believe Ford benefited after 2000, when his district, long a majority black district, was redrawn to include wealthy, conservative suburbs, allowing him the luxury of operating more in the center.

 

"He was one of the few black representatives who had managed to construct a biracial coalition, which would allow him to make a serious bid for governor or senator, in contrast to most black representatives whose heavily minority districts lead them to take positions so liberal they become non-electable statewide in most states," said Morris Fiorina, a Stanford University political scientist.

 

Now as a statewide candidate, Ford is invoking a surprising symbol as he tries to bridge an even bigger cultural divide -- between Memphis and rural areas dominated by conservative white voters.

 

Tactics might be working

 

His favorite riff involves a Sunday afternoon stop at the Little Rebel Drive-In in Jackson, Tenn., where, as Ford describes it, the parking lot was full of trucks with gun racks and Bush stickers, and the Confederate flag flew out front. Ford talks of being greeted with hugs -- and how he attached a bumper sticker to the refrigerator.

 

"My politics is not full of anger," he said, explaining that he sees no contradiction in a Confederate flag-waving voter backing a black candidate. "It's not something that flies in my yard," he said. "But there are people who it means something different to than it means to me."

 

There are signs that Ford's strategy might be working.

 

A Zogby International survey this month concluded the race was a dead heat. But danger signs emerged: Nearly one-third of voters viewed him unfavorably, and the Republicans hold double-digit leads outside of Ford's home region.

 

For all of his potential liabilities, Ford has an added advantage: He's a gifted orator.

 

After leaving Smithville, he drove to nearby Cookeville, home of Tennessee Tech University, where he addressed hundreds of rising high school seniors at the annual Boys' State convention in a noisy cafeteria.

 

Ford stepped up onto a chair to speak. Soon, the din quieted.

 

It was the toughest crowd of the day -- with questions challenging his views on Iraq, immigration and his "fancy" tastes.

 

"Yes, I wear suits and I like Starbucks coffee," Ford shot back. He challenged the questioner, a 16-year-old Republican activist, to force his side to talk about substance.

 

Watching Ford navigate the questions that night, Sean Ochsenbein, an 18-year-old Republican and son of an Army veteran, said he will vote for Ford. So did his father, also a Republican.

 

"When I look at him, I don't see color," the younger Ochsenbein said. "I see a person that looks outgoing and wants to solve problems. To me it looks like he has a tan."

[Balta1701]

Mason-Dixon poll on the Tennessee race.

 

GOP primary

 

Corker 39

Bryant 23

Hillary 22

 

General

 

Corker ® 49

Ford (D) 36

 

Bryant ® 43

Ford (D) 40

 

Hilleary ® 41

Ford (D) 41

Ford does have one advantage in that he's outraised all 3 of his potential GOP opponents combined, so he has the cash to make up some ground.

[NorthSideSox72]

Mason-Dixon poll on the Tennessee race.

Ford does have one advantage in that he's outraised all 3 of his potential GOP opponents combined, so he has the cash to make up some ground.

And he will.

 

I'll take a bet with anyone willing. Ford will win.

[minors]

And he will.

 

I'll take a bet with anyone willing. Ford will win.

 

 

I think Corker will win he is a republican in a very red state with the support of uber popular Bill Frist. Corker done some great things for Chattanooga and I will be voting for him come Novemeber.

[Balta1701]

AJC

A new poll by Insider Advantage shows challenger Hank Johnson with a hefty lead over incumbent Cynthia McKinney in the Democratic run-off for the 4th District congressional race.

 

The poll shows Johnson leading McKinney, 46 to 21 percent, with a third of voters undecided. The survey recorded the responses of 489 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percent.

 

Run-offs are notorious for low turnout, which often makes telephone surveys unreliable. Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage, said he was unwilling to say that McKinney was headed for certain defeat. "But is she in deep, deep, deep, deep troube? Yes," he said.

[NorthSideSox72]

AJC

Excellent.

[Balta1701]

Linky

 

Amid the often hostile rhetoric that pierces South Dakota’s closely watched abortion debate, a new survey shows that more residents of the largely conservative state oppose a ban on the pregnancy-ending procedure than support it, though that would change if exceptions for cases involving rape and incest were allowed.

 

According to the statewide poll, conducted for the Argus Leader and KELO-TV in Sioux Falls, 47 percent of voters polled would vote to reject the ban, compared with 39 percent who would vote to keep it. Another 14 percent were undecided.

 

Support for the current form of the abortion ban came equally from men and women and matched the statewide 39 percent. The political breakdown showed only 23 percent of Democrats support the proposed law, while 51 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of independents back it.

 

Gov. Mike Rounds earlier this year signed the ban that the 2006 Legislature passed. It would outlaw all abortions except to save the life of a pregnant woman. Opponents circulated a petition and got enough signatures to prevent the law from taking effect until after a November vote.

 

Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the survey of 800 registered South Dakota voters between July 24 and July 26. The voters, all of whom said they were likely to vote in the November election, were interviewed by telephone. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

 

The poll indicated the ban would have broader overall support if it included an exception for cases involving rape or incest. Those undecided or against the current form of the abortion ban were asked if they would favor the proposed law if it included those exceptions. Statewide, 59 percent said they would support that form of an abortion restriction.

[southsider2k5]

I know its not Congress, but I should find out about my chances for filling a vacated school board term today... I am not holding my breath as there are 12 people looking for one spot, and among them are some way over-qualified politicians, but I am definately proud of my first jump into the political realm. Having gone through it and still feeling pretty good about myself and my abilities, I am seriously considering a run in the election this fall.

 

VOTE SOUTHSIDER!!!

[Rex Kickass]

Swift boaters have their sights set on John Murtha.

[Rex Kickass]

MO Senate (Rasmussen)

McCaskill (D) 45%

Talent (R, Incumbent) 42%

 

OH Senate (Rasmussen)

Brown (D) 44%

DeWine (R, Incumbent) 42%

 

WA Senate (Rasmussen)

Cantwell (D, incumbent) 48%

McGavick ® 37%

 

VA Senate (Mason Dixon)

Allen (R, incumbent) 48%

Webb (D) 32%

 

VT Senate (ARG)

Sanders (I) 56%

Tarrant ® 35%

 

MI Senate (Strategic Vision)

Stabenow (D, incumbent) 52%

Bouchard ® 36%

 

FL Senate (Quinnipiac)

Nelson (D, Incumbent) 61%

Harris ® 24%