2006 Congressional Elections Thread

[Heads22]

Guess who just voted absentee.....

[mr_genius]

and the media is going to do all they can, as they always do, to spin this as "Bush's big bounce is finally here"

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Latest tracking numbers available:

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/BalanceofPower.htm

 

According to Rasmussen, its looking like 49-49 in the Senate (using solids and leaners), with 2 toss-ups. The toss up category has been shrinking, and things are solidifying a bit more. But, more of the Dems' 49 are leaners, and more GOP are solid. Some leaners could sway back. Its definitely gonna be close.

 

Note that Harold Ford, who at one time had a 12-point deficit to Corker, is now favored to win.

[NorthSideSox72]

And then, the update on the House:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061004/pl_nm/poll_house_dc_1

 

Dems lead in 11 of 15 in these particular key races. GOP has a 15-seat advantage. No word on any of the other races, and their projections. If things fall as they are polling here, Dems would need to pick up 5 more seats (net) in the other 400-some-odd races to gain control of the House.

[Balta1701]

And then, the update on the House:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061004/pl_nm/poll_house_dc_1

 

Dems lead in 11 of 15 in these particular key races. GOP has a 15-seat advantage. No word on any of the other races, and their projections. If things fall as they are polling here, Dems would need to pick up 5 more seats (net) in the other 400-some-odd races to gain control of the House.

You'll also note that there are plenty of other races that are competitive that are not polled. Indiana's infamous "Bloody 8th", for example. And a lot of those Republicans who are leading are still significantly below 50%.

Edited October 4, 2006 by Balta1701

[Heads22]

I can almost guarantee the Iowa 1 is wrong. Braley had a 11 percent lead, and last I know, he hasn't stalked enough pages to drop 20+ points.

[NorthSideSox72]

I can almost guarantee the Iowa 1 is wrong. Braley had a 13 percent lead, and last I know, he hasn't stalked enough pages to drop 26 points.

That does seem odd, doesn't it? And the fact that he had a 13 point lead, and now is down that same 13, seems to suggest this may be an error. But, stranger things have happened. Anyone have another source?

[Heads22]

It's a liberal - leaning district.....and there was no news that he bombed the debate....

[Rex Kickass]

Simple. It's one poll. It's an outlier. So was the 13 point lead for the Dem. Most of the polls are showing a 1-9 point lead for the Dem candidate at this point that I've seen (and I've glanced across like five lately.)

[Heads22]

Simple. It's one poll. It's an outlier. So was the 13 point lead for the Dem. Most of the polls are showing a 1-9 point lead for the Dem candidate at this point that I've seen (and I've glanced across like five lately.)

 

That's still a heck of an outlier. Needless to say Braley has led in every single poll I've seen....then to suddenly trail 13...what's weird is I've seen Whalen officials comment on it.....but it's an awful volitaile swing to have Braley leading 44-37 on Sept 18 to Whalen leading 47-34 on October 4.

[Soxy]

I don't see Hastert losing his seat this year, but does anyone know where I might find some info on the latest polls out of the 14th?

[Balta1701]

I don't see Hastert losing his seat this year, but does anyone know where I might find some info on the latest polls out of the 14th?

So, I don't know if there are some that they don't post, but the TPM Poll tracker usually is a good place to look. I haven't found anything with Hastert's name after August 20th, and I'm too lazy to keep looking.

[Heads22]

So, that link you gave me, showed that in a month, Braley's 54-41 lead flipflopped to a Whalen 47-34 lead. Both may be outliers, but I'm pretty damn sure something big would have to happen to bring on a 20 point drop. I read that the Braley camp has distanced themselves from this poll, as expected, while the Whalen camp is now pushing it, as expected. It's a prime seat to switch from red to blue, so it's a pretty big deal. I already voted.....but something weird is going on in NE Iowa. Iowans don't change their minds that violently that quickly.

[BHAMBARONS]

So, that link you gave me, showed that in a month, Braley's 54-41 lead flipflopped to a Whalen 47-34 lead. Both may be outliers, but I'm pretty damn sure something big would have to happen to bring on a 20 point drop. I read that the Braley camp has distanced themselves from this poll, as expected, while the Whalen camp is now pushing it, as expected. It's a prime seat to switch from red to blue, so it's a pretty big deal. I already voted.....but something weird is going on in NE Iowa. Iowans don't change their minds that violently that quickly.

 

 

It would have had to be something huge for Iowans to change there minds. Last time I can remember anything like this was '98 when Lightfoot was running against Vilsack and Lightfoot lost a 15 point lead because of the ad's he was running. Iowan's don't change their minds that quickly for no reason and this is also a blue district and Bush never received higher than 46% either time so I highly doubt Braley will do any better

[Rex Kickass]

So, that link you gave me, showed that in a month, Braley's 54-41 lead flipflopped to a Whalen 47-34 lead. Both may be outliers, but I'm pretty damn sure something big would have to happen to bring on a 20 point drop. I read that the Braley camp has distanced themselves from this poll, as expected, while the Whalen camp is now pushing it, as expected. It's a prime seat to switch from red to blue, so it's a pretty big deal. I already voted.....but something weird is going on in NE Iowa. Iowans don't change their minds that violently that quickly.

 

It's a data set. If the poll was weighted in anyway to reflect a specific area of the district that's traditionally red - it might explain the weird data.

[NorthSideSox72]

It's a data set. If the poll was weighted in anyway to reflect a specific area of the district that's traditionally red - it might explain the weird data.

Is the skewed poll from Zogby? That would also explain it.

[Balta1701]

Is the skewed poll from Zogby? That would also explain it.

Yes, that most recent Reuters poll should be a Zogby one, if that's the one we're talking about. It's a phone poll, not one of his internet polls, but it's still the same group, and Zogby's reputation has taken a big hit since 2004.

[WilliamTell]

I can almost guarantee the Iowa 1 is wrong. Braley had a 11 percent lead, and last I know, he hasn't stalked enough pages to drop 20+ points.

 

I have a friend who's uncle is Braley but anyways, Braley's going to win. That district is primarily democrat anyways plus he just seems better imo and I'm a republican.

[NorthSideSox72]

I have a friend who's uncle is Braley but anyways, Braley's going to win. That district is primarily democrat anyways plus he just seems better imo and I'm a republican.

But the district was Red before, not blue - republican rep, right?

[Heads22]

It was red, but there are more democrats.

[sox4lifeinPA]

funny Santorum story....

 

I used to live in a posh garage apartment of a 20k square foot mansion and the owners just had a fund raiser for Rick the other week. The funny part may only make the christians in the room laugh, but one of the guests was none other than Michael W. Smith. *gag* I love when rich republicans hang out together in the name of morals and family values.

 

anyway...so maybe that only made me laugh, but that much I'm used to around here.

[NorthSideSox72]

It was red, but there are more democrats.

I figured it was previously red but, with the population dynamics changing as we discussed a few weeks back, was turning blue. Either way, it represents a party turnover in Congress for Iowa 1.

[Soxy]

funny Santorum story....

 

I used to live in a posh garage apartment of a 20k square foot mansion and the owners just had a fund raiser for Rick the other week. The funny part may only make the christians in the room laugh, but one of the guests was none other than Michael W. Smith. *gag* I love when rich republicans hang out together in the name of morals and family values.

 

anyway...so maybe that only made me laugh, but that much I'm used to around here.

*Cancels dedication of "Friends" to PA on the Delilah show*

[Balta1701]

That is a huge lead.

 

Four weeks before congressional elections, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Democrats hold a 23-point lead over GOP candidates. That's double the lead Republicans had a month before they seized control of Congress in 1994.

 

President Bush's approval rating was 37%, down from 44% in a Sept. 15-17 poll. The approval rating for Congress was 24%, down 5 points from last month.

 

The plummeting GOP ratings in the poll of 1,007 adults, taken Friday through Sunday, come after a series of dismal developments for the party. They include high levels of violence in Iraq; a National Intelligence Estimate that contradicted upbeat administration statements on Iraq; a new Bob Woodward book about internal White House disagreements over Iraq policy, and the Sept. 29 resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Foley hours after reports that he exchanged sexually explicit instant messages with teenage House pages.

 

Last month's poll showed a bounce for Bush and Republicans following the fifth anniversary of 9/11 and a party-wide focus on terrorism. "Not only is it gone, but the Democrats have momentum," Democratic strategist Anita Dunn said.

 

She called the Foley scandal "the absolute crystallization for people of everything they dislike about Washington and the congressional Republicans."

 

GOP pollster Ed Goeas and Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Republican fortunes are better in individual districts than nationally. Republicans are staying loyal and energized, Goeas said.

 

He added that he's watching to see whether the Foley matter fires up independents who normally don't vote: "Does this become a catalyst for their involvement?"

 

Two-thirds of those in the survey said they are following the page scandal very or somewhat closely.

 

More than half — 54% — said Republican leaders who knew about Foley's actions for months or years did not act against him earlier "for political reasons." By 43%-36%, they said House Speaker Dennis Hastert should resign. One-third said the scandal would make them less likely to vote for a Republican; 53% said it would make no difference.

 

On the question of which party's candidate would receive their vote if the election were held today, Democrats held a 23-point lead over Republicans among every type of person questioned — likely voters, registered voters and adults. That's the largest lead Democrats have held among registered voters since 1978 and a jump from last month's 48%-48% split among likely voters.

[sox4lifeinPA]

*Cancels dedication of "Friends" to PA on the Delilah show*

 

 

lol....there we go. well played, soxy, well played.