2006 Congressional Elections Thread

[mr_genius]

Actually I posted on this last week. As part of the Help America Vote Act, the government undertook an outside study into what types of voting irregularities and voter fraud actually is discovered. The preliminary results are out, and the study is going to conclude that while examples like what people use to justify those ID laws, that there are huge blocks of people who vote who shouldn't be voting, is actually simply untrue. Current levels of enforcment of the laws have been more than effective in preventing those types of voting abuse, and in fact, they've been on the decline in the past several years. However, Absentee ballots are a much bigger problem, with much more widespread reports of vote-buying, voter intimidation, and double-voting due to them. Link. Quite literally, if you're interested in preventing voting fraud, you forget this voter-ID idea which there simply isn't evidence of a problem it is needed to solve, and you start pushing to reform or eliminate absentee voting.

 

 

i totally disagree. they have already found around 20,000 bs registration card in Missouri. i don't trust this study you are citing.

 

well, i have a feeling you'll change your mind on the ID issue once fanatic evangelicals start voting 50 times each to ensure their minority opinions are what drives the political landscape.

[Balta1701]

well, i have a feeling you'll change your mind on the ID issue once fanatic evangelicals start voting 50 times each to ensure their minority opinions are what drives the political landscape.

No, because they'll wind up in jail, because as the study shows, the folks who try to do that have a real nasty-habit of being caught.

[Balta1701]

On a different note...here's how well finally getting Drudge to start running the "Webb's a pornographer!" story seems to have worked for George Allen.

 

Rasmussen. 10/29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/25 results)

 

Allen ® 46 (50)

Webb (D) 51 (48)

 

That includes leaners. Without, Webb leads 48-46, so the undecided are leaning Webb. This is a dramatic reversal.

Here's the formula the Senate seems to be following. The Dems are going to pick up Ohio, Penn, and RI, barring any monstrous shifts in the next week. The Dems also look like they'll hold NJ, the only seat that they really should have been scared about. Then, there's Montana, VA, Missouri, and Tennessee, and for a simple Majority the Dems need 3 of those 4 (assuming Lieberman for Lieberman doesn't bolt).

[Rex Kickass]

Internal Dem polls (grain of salt) show Ford beginning to open a lead in TN too. Democrats will win NJ, although it will be a lot closer than most people might think here.

 

Right now it looks like the following seats could swing blue from red in order of possibility....

 

PA, OH, RI, MT, VA, TN.... AZ.

 

Arizona Senate polls are quickly creeping back within the margin of error. That can't be a good sign for John Kyl. He'll probably win the race - but still the possibility is there for an 8 seat pickup! As of today, we're looking at 5 seats. Not enough to get a change in Senate leadership.

 

PS: Here's what I see more likely than Lieberman bolting to the red side of the aisle. Lieberman taking a cabinet post. This enables Republican governor Jodi Rell to replace Lieberman with a Republican senator through 2008.

[sox4lifeinPA]

Internal Dem polls (grain of salt) show Ford beginning to open a lead in TN too. Democrats will win NJ, although it will be a lot closer than most people might think here.

 

Right now it looks like the following seats could swing blue from red in order of possibility....

 

PA, OH, RI, MT, VA, TN.... AZ.

 

Arizona Senate polls are quickly creeping back within the margin of error. That can't be a good sign for John Kyl. He'll probably win the race - but still the possibility is there for an 8 seat pickup! As of today, we're looking at 5 seats. Not enough to get a change in Senate leadership.

 

PS: Here's what I see more likely than Lieberman bolting to the red side of the aisle. Lieberman taking a cabinet post. This enables Republican governor Jodi Rell to replace Lieberman with a Republican senator through 2008.

 

 

PA's race is pretty scary. I don't know who the hell to vote for.

[BHAMBARONS]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kyl loses this race in Arizona. His campaign has been one ad about Illegal immigration and a comment that Peterson said back in April (about the 1986 legislation being the last thing positive step taken against illegal immigration). Kyl turned that statement into Peterson supporting illegals and the ad which has 8 sheriff's saying Peterson support illegals. Now come to find out the Kyl campaign lied to several sheriffs to get them on TV and one of the others was Kyl's personal friends and was planning to support him anyways so the ad is complete fabrication and has been pulled from the networks leaving Kyl with no TV ad's except an add by John McCain paid for by McCain. Another advantage possibly is the fact that the DNC doesn't even have to put one cent into Peterson's campaign because Peterson is spending his own money so far $10M (Peterson is in real estate and is his company Westcor has malls all over).

 

Something that might save Kyl is McCain's endorsement which he just received but needless to say Kyl campaign staff done a very sloppy job this election year and considering Kyl was ranked in the top 10 senators and endorsed by McCain this election should not have been close.

[3 BeWareTheNewSox 5]

I wish I could find a video of the Daily Show interview where Blagojevich gets asked if he's the gay governor

[Cknolls]

My predictions: Dems win Ohio, Penn., R.I., N.J..

Repubs win Mo., Va., Tenn., Md.

[KipWellsFan]

Cardin should win easily in Maryland

[NorthSideSox72]

I'll go with...

 

Dems winning MT, VA, TN, RI and OH

 

GOP wins NJ, MO, AZ

 

With a bonus of... a bunch of voting controversies!

[Balta1701]

I'll go with...

 

Dems winning MT, VA, TN, RI and OH

 

GOP wins NJ, MO, AZ

 

With a bonus of... a bunch of voting controversies!

Man, you're giving the GOP NJ and giving the Dems TN? You must really like the upsets.

 

You know what I'm honestly hoping for on some level? A bunch of voting machine controversies in districts that actually somehow hurt the GOP. Not because it would be helping the Dems, but because I'm sick of having the Republicans ignoring this issue because it seems like voting irregularities always seem to help the GOP and hurt the Dems (thus leading to all of the Dem conspiracy theories about 2004 in Ohio, the whole mess after 2000, etc.)

 

If just once it actually hurt the GOP, it might give them enough motivation to actually work at fixing the problems with these things and supporting working voting machines with a verified paper trail.

 

I think that the map of current state laws regarding these machines tells a lot (note how the GOP's strongest area, the south, is also the weakest in terms of paper voting requirements):

 

 

Here's the list of 219 co-sponsors of a similar verified voting bill at the national level. If you're smart, you realize that 219 votes is enough to pass a bill...but the Congressional leadership just hasn't let it come up for a vote in committee, let alone to the full House.

[Texsox]

Dear Friends,

 

With the midterm elections only a week a way, now is the time to get our message out about voting for the common good. We want to urge you to write a Letter to the Editor this week!

 

 

Among the most effective voices for a culture of the common good are those of Catholics willing to express their beliefs in local communities. One way to do this is by writing letters to the editors of local newspapers, particularly in response to articles, editorials, columns, or other letters to the editor.

 

 

 

Catholics in Alliance is encouraging Catholics from across the country to write to their local papers this week about the importance of voting for the common good. We have included three sample letters at the bottom of this message to help get you started.

 

 

 

To write a letter to the editor:

 

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Sample Letters to the Editor

Sample Letter #1: Common Good

 

 

To the Editor:

 

 

Catholics looking to do the right thing in the upcoming elections need to look past partisan politics and vote for the common good. This central principle of Catholic Social Teaching calls us to build a society in which we all work together, and are responsible to one another.

 

 

 

Candidates truly supporting the common good will work to build a culture of life by making health care, education, and housing the centerpieces of their agendas. They will commit to seek peaceful resolutions to international disputes, protect the environment, and defend religious freedom.

 

 

 

Electing officeholders who will do what's right for everyone, rather than just the few, is the key to building a secure and prosperous nation. America works best when our government is serving the common good.

 

 

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To the Editor:

 

 

Every election year, many groups compete to tell us how religious people should vote. For years, voters have been told that abortion and same-sex marriage are the most pressing moral issues, and that deciding who to vote for is as simple as comparing the candidates' positions on those two issues.

 

 

 

My faith has a significant influence upon my voting decisions, and these issues alone fail to speak to the depths of my religious beliefs. American families face crushing financial realities, like escalating health care and education costs, stagnant wages, credit card debt, and uncertain pension and retirement options. Our nation is confronting war, poverty, and genocide abroad, as well as growing insecurity at home.

 

 

 

Most importantly, studies have shown that addressing economic threats is a truly effective way to lower the abortion rate. This is why as a "values voter," I can't justify a vote based on only a few narrow issues.

 

 

Sample Letter #3: War is a moral issue

 

 

To the Editor:

 

 

As a Catholic, I believe that the war in Iraq is the most pressing moral issue in the upcoming elections. Since the beginning of the war, as many as 655,000 Iraqis have died, as have thousands of American soldiers. Another 40,000 U.S. troops have been injured as the country descends into civil war. Now our own intelligence community is confirming that the Iraq war has created a new generation of terrorists.

 

 

 

My faith teaches that war can only be considered "just" if it is a last resort and is waged with a serious plan for peace. Sadly, it appears the current conflict is producing the opposite results. Before the war began, the late Pope John Paul II said this war would be a "great defeat for humanity." Imagine how he would feel now.

 

 

 

Next Tuesday, people of faith should vote for candidates who understand our faith's call to collective security. We need to support a new direction that can put an end to this senseless destruction.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Man, you're giving the GOP NJ and giving the Dems TN? You must really like the upsets.

Polls for NJ have been trending towards GOP, with the gap shortening. And in TN, like I said before... never bet against a Ford in Tennessee. Plus TN, a historically conservative state, has tended more and more moderate in recent election cycles. Heck, during the last Prez election, it was even considered in play for a while.

[mr_genius]

I wish I could find a video of the Daily Show interview where Blagojevich gets asked if he's the gay governor

 

 

[KipWellsFan]

Polls for NJ have been trending towards GOP, with the gap shortening.

 

If they are it doesn't seem like it's a pronounced trend.

[NorthSideSox72]

If they are it doesn't seem like it's a pronounced trend.

You may be right. It could be just the specific polls I have seen. But it has seemed over the last couple months, in the polls I've watched, that its trending that way.

 

We'll see. Its just guessing on my part anyway.

[BHAMBARONS]

I will go with Dem winning NJ,OH,RI,PA,MT,VA

 

Republican TN,MO,AZ

 

Leaving a 50-50 split.

[Balta1701]

You may be right. It could be just the specific polls I have seen. But it has seemed over the last couple months, in the polls I've watched, that its trending that way.

 

We'll see. Its just guessing on my part anyway.

I'm pretty sure I've seen the exact opposite. In August and September, the polls in generally were a lot closer, with Kean either tying or even comign out ahead more often. But in October, when most people started paying attention and realized it was Kean Jr. and not the same Kean who served on the 911 commission, Kean has more uniformly fallen back and Menendez has approached the 50% line.

 

TPM's poll tracker also allows you to sort by race, if you want to look at this specific eleciton. Linkity.

[Rex Kickass]

You may be right. It could be just the specific polls I have seen. But it has seemed over the last couple months, in the polls I've watched, that its trending that way.

 

We'll see. Its just guessing on my part anyway.

Two polls in the last two weeks show it within a point, but even GOP internal polls released show Menendez getting a bump in the last week. Most polls show a 5-9 point edge for Menendez here. I don't think the GOP has the turnout abilities that the Dems have in NJ and that's what matters.

[BHAMBARONS]

Two polls in the last two weeks show it within a point, but even GOP internal polls released show Menendez getting a bump in the last week. Most polls show a 5-9 point edge for Menendez here. I don't think the GOP has the turnout abilities that the Dems have in NJ and that's what matters.

 

 

 

 

Has anyone heard anything about Zona Senate race I have been to the Peterson Rallies they seem to be getting bigger and more enthusiastic each time the only polls that come out here are Zogby and an occasional Rasmussen. Rass last poll had this race tightening I just wonder if there is anything behind this Peterson momentum or if it is nothing.

[Balta1701]

Has anyone heard anything about Zona Senate race I have been to the Peterson Rallies they seem to be getting bigger and more enthusiastic each time the only polls that come out here are Zogby and an occasional Rasmussen. Rass last poll had this race tightening I just wonder if there is anything behind this Peterson momentum or if it is nothing.

It's tightened up down the stretch, compared to a few months ago when Pederson was in the 30's. He's polling in the mid-40's right now, with Kyl polling right around 50%. It'll probably take either a flop on Kyl's part or a genuine Democratic wave to push Kyl out of that seat. It probably should have been polled more as close as it is though, so there's some chance that people are just missing a trend. Link.

[Texsox]

Dear ONE Member,

 

I am getting bombarded with glossy campaign mail and recorded phone calls from candidates telling me to vote for them. But, ironically, my friends, coworkers, and neighbors are far more likely to teach or persuade me than the glossiest of brochures.

 

This weekend millions of Americans are learning about the issues before making a final decision. A letter to your local newspaper can, in some cases, reach hundreds of thousands of voters and educate them about extreme global poverty. Together, ONE members will raise the profile of extreme poverty in communities across the country.

 

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Please consider taking two minutes to send a Letter to the Editor of your local paper.

 

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[Chisoxfn]

The GOP needs to get something positive going and fast otherwise it could be a nigthmare election that could have a real negative effect on our country (sorry but I have my strong leanings to the GOP and I think them losing control of the house and/or senate will be a terrible thing for our country).

 

I've already seen the democratic party hamper a great state like California. Albeit we have great weather, but economically we've lost tons of big time businesses to other states because of our ridiculous anti business laws that pretty much cripple big and middle businessman (even small businessmen).

[KipWellsFan]

The GOP needs to get something positive going and fast otherwise it could be a nigthmare election that could have a real negative effect on our country (sorry but I have my strong leanings to the GOP and I think them losing control of the house and/or senate will be a terrible thing for our country).

 

I've already seen the democratic party hamper a great state like California. Albeit we have great weather, but economically we've lost tons of big time businesses to other states because of our ridiculous anti business laws that pretty much cripple big and middle businessman (even small businessmen).

 

I'm sorta of the opinion that "how could they be any worse than these guys" but looking at the would-be leaders in the House if the Democrats win is a little scary.

[Rex Kickass]

Text of an email sent to supporters by Senator George Allen of Virginia

 

First, it was the Catholic priests, then it was Mark Foley, and now Jim Webb, whose sleazy novels discuss sex between very young teenagers. ... Hmmm, sounds like a perverted pedophile to me! Pass the word that we do not need any more pedophiles in office.

 

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dw...n1.3eab2ff.html

 

The GOP needs to get something positive going and fast otherwise it could be a nigthmare election that could have a real negative effect on our country (sorry but I have my strong leanings to the GOP and I think them losing control of the house and/or senate will be a terrible thing for our country).

 

I've already seen the democratic party hamper a great state like California. Albeit we have great weather, but economically we've lost tons of big time businesses to other states because of our ridiculous anti business laws that pretty much cripple big and middle businessman (even small businessmen).

 

It all depends on how a Democratic House and Senate is ready to work with the President. If they are willing to work together, its only good for this country. If they are willing to change the partisan tone in the Congress, its only good for this country. The GOP has proven over the last six years, that they don't just want power in the congress - they want absolute power.

 

Bipartisan amendments and bills don't even get a vote because if it isn't approved of by the majority of the majority, its never actually heard on the floor of the House or Senate. The current Congressional climate is obstructionist to bipartisanship and extremely so. If the Congress flips and there's no change to that, there'll have been no point to it.